Trump is Losing in the Polls!

[ordnance]

Quote

Yep, going up a a fair rate of knots and according to locals making a huge difference to cross border crime.

It was never anything to do with crime, It was Trump electioneering to the right wing. 

[Walker570]

10 hours ago, Mr_Nobody said:

That's great except

"The federal government may claim to be able to shut down the economy, but the truth is that states are the ones responsible for regulating the businesses that operate within their boundaries. So the federal government can’t order states to close down or reopen their businesses."

"The second important element comes from another aspect of American federalism: The Constitution ensures that states not only retain powers beyond the federal government’s; they are also very independent from each other. Each state can develop its own policies and systems for delivering the services its residents need."

So I'd be very careful about holding Trump responsible for how the US is dealing with this pandemic. Honestly I'd be very careful believing anything the UK press says about Trump because for the most part our media hate him. 

Take a look at the complete article I took those 2 quotes from. https://theconversation.com/whos-in-charge-of-lifting-lockdowns-137972

I'm afraid it's not as simple as "Orange man bad".

Complete article here https://theconversation.com/whos-in-charge-of-lifting-lockdowns-137972

100%    quote me something positive from any of the left wing media about anything other than BLM and from responses I get out and about THEY have done more harm to the coloured population than any racism issue.

[grrclark]

13 hours ago, NoBodyImportant said:

Yep,  you see large sections of the border is protected by a  barb wire fence. So when they tear down 50 miles fence and build 60 miles of 30ft tall 1/2in steel wall in a week the left media reports  Trump spends 60 million on 10 new miles of wall this week.  

So the headline is really existing fence replaced with bigger fence, which has happened for as long as the fence has been maintained.

The big beautifull wall paid for by Mexico is really a big ugly fence paid for by the US.

[timps]

Hillary had more votes than Trump last time but hers were concentrated in fewer states and because of the Electoral College system she didn’t win.

One thing a very interesting political commentator comparing our system to theirs pointed out is that while we do have swing voters the US tends not to.

They are either a lifelong republican or democrat if they don’t like their candidate then they just don’t vote rather than swing to the other side therefore overcoming a majority is that much harder in the USA.

So I can see Trump loosing the overall vote due to a large population of city-dwellers voting against him but still taking the presidential win because of the Electoral College.

[NoBodyImportant]

9 hours ago, timps said:

Hillary had more votes than Trump last time but hers were concentrated in fewer states and because of the Electoral College system she didn’t win.

One thing a very interesting political commentator comparing our system to theirs pointed out is that while we do have swing voters the US tends not to.

They are either a lifelong republican or democrat if they don’t like their candidate then they just don’t vote rather than swing to the other side therefore overcoming a majority is that much harder in the USA.

So I can see Trump loosing the overall vote due to a large population of city-dwellers voting against him but still taking the presidential win because of the Electoral College.

Yeah, but those states don’t have voter ID laws.  So you can walk into the Ballot Box and request a ballot.  As long as you say Yes you live in that district they aren’t allowed to question it.  You can literally drive from district to district and keep voting.  The democrats say voter identification laws are racist because getting a ID for black Americans is to confusing because of the paperwork involved and the $10 charge.  Obama won one district by 112% of the population.  

10 hours ago, grrclark said:

So the headline is really existing fence replaced with bigger fence, which has happened for as long as the fence has been maintained.

The big beautifull wall paid for by Mexico is really a big ugly fence paid for by the US.

They are some spots that are metal I beams spaced 4 ft apart to stop cars so it’s hard to call that a fence.  But I’m not sure what the exact definition of a wall is but a 30ft tall steel barrier is pretty good deterrent.  The wall is designed to slow a smuggler down.  They have sensors and cameras that runs the entire length on the new wall with Border control road that runs along it.  

[NoBodyImportant]

New wall

Old wall

Then in urban areas there is a tall solid concrete section poured to stop drugs from being passed through. 

[ditchman]

that is such a shame..........that a country needs to do that..........understandable...but such a shame

[Teal]

13 hours ago, NoBodyImportant said:

The democrats say voter identification laws are racist because getting a ID for black Americans is to confusing because of the paperwork involved and the $10 charge.  Obama won one district by 112% of the population.  

Can I have a fact check on that please? Please give more information. Sounds a lot like dogs danglies to me.

[grrclark]

50 minutes ago, Teal said:

Can I have a fact check on that please? Please give more information. Sounds a lot like dogs danglies to me.

Indeed.  https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2012/nov/19/online-petition/online-petition-claims-obama-got-more-votes-one-co/

[timps]

1 hour ago, Teal said:

Can I have a fact check on that please? Please give more information. Sounds a lot like dogs danglies to me.

I can fact check it for you, for it to be true 112% of the population voted for Obama and 0% voted for anyone else so definitely wrong.

I do get what he is implying though, some states voter turnout was above 100% and the candidate’s margin of victory was lower than the percentage of these ghost voters.  

Unfortunately it is impossible for either side to claim the moral high ground on this as both republican and democratic candidates have won states where their margin of victory is lower than numbers of ghost voters.

Secondly there is no proof which way these ghost voters voted, was it failed attempted by one party or a successfully attempt by the other.  The one widely stated is where Obama won 108% of the vote in Ohio county but when you break it down Obama won around 51% of votes cast but the voter turnout was 108%.

You also have to take into account the area also had a large college campus and students aren’t always counted in the voter census but are eligible to vote whilst living there  skewing the eligible voter figures.

Edited July 14, 2020 by timps

[TIGHTCHOKE]

Did I just see that Kanye West is launching a bid for the Presidency?

[B725]

You did TC probably doing it on the back of BLM. 

[TIGHTCHOKE]

My, my, what interesting times we live in!

[B725]

Not sure interesting is the right word. 

[WalkedUp]

On 12/07/2020 at 21:23, NoBodyImportant said:

Oh no, Hillary is going to win by a record setting landslide. 

I honestly thought that last time. Sometimes you can’t see past your own politics and results shock you, especially in a Parliamentary or Electoral College system. That’s what happened to me with Clinton/Trump - I hadn’t realised the extent that Trump losing the popular vote by a significant margin but winning small in key states would pan out. 

[Guest]

2 hours ago, TIGHTCHOKE said:

Did I just see that Kanye West is launching a bid for the Presidency?

He announced it quite a few days ago, I guess our media is only just catching up. Most likely just a publicity stunt. Perhaps he has a new album coming out?

 

[grrclark]

4 hours ago, Mr_Nobody said:

He announced it quite a few days ago, I guess our media is only just catching up. Most likely just a publicity stunt. Perhaps he has a new album coming out?

 

Hi first talked about the idea a few years ago, he's an egotistical nutter.  A bit like the current incumbant of the White House really.

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, grrclark said:

Hi first talked about the idea a few years ago, he's an egotistical nutter.  A bit like the current incumbant of the White House really.

lol.

Well funnily enough there was some talk he was doing it to help Trump by removing some votes from Biden. Apparently though Kanye has fallen out with Donald.

I suppose anyone who believes they are capable and worthy of running a country has to be somewhat egotistical. Maybe it's just the nutter part that's optional.

Then again, maybe not.

[grrclark]

2 minutes ago, Mr_Nobody said:

lol.

Well funnily enough there was some talk he was doing it to help Trump by removing some votes from Biden. Apparently though Kanye has fallen out with Donald.

I suppose anyone who believes they are capable and worthy of running a country has to be somewhat egotistical. Maybe it's just the nutter part that's optional.

Then again, maybe not.

I suspect that is probably a requirement too.

He came out strongly in favour of Trump last time and has been vocal in his support until recently, not sure that a fervent supporter of Trump would take away any votes for Biden, but then i'm not altogether sure of anything in US politics.  I'm not altogether sure of anything in UK politics either right enough.

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, grrclark said:

I suspect that is probably a requirement too.

He came out strongly in favour of Trump last time and has been vocal in his support until recently, not sure that a fervent supporter of Trump would take away any votes for Biden, but then i'm not altogether sure of anything in US politics.  I'm not altogether sure of anything in UK politics either right enough.

No it does seem a strange idea but it's one I've heard.

I will confess that most of my knowledge of US politics comes via Tim Pool on YT. It's been quite funny watching him. I believe he has always been liberal/left leaning and mostly a supporter of the Democrats. In fact that was why I started watching him. However, over the last year or so he has become more and more disillusioned with them and ever more in favour of Trump's policies. He's still not a huge fan of the man himself although it looks increasingly likely he will vote Republican come the next election.

The term "being red pilled" is constantly thrown at Tim and he has been sent numerous MAGA beanies. He has even been out and bought a bunch of firearms. Can't say I blame him though, not with the current state of many US cities. The Democrat mayors seems of several cities seem to have completely lost the plot, refusing to take action against rioters and looters. The circuit attorney for St Louis has threatened to charge the couple who came out with guns to protect their home against hordes of BLM protesters who had broken into their gated community. Despite the fact that Missouri is a Castle state. The Democrats seem to be doing their best to drive people to vote Republican. I know if I lived in one of their cities and they were refusing to enforce the law I wouldn't be voting for them this time around.

It's going to be an interesting October/November in US politics, that's for sure.

[grrclark]

I think the position in the US is broadly similar to here and in fairness most long established western economy democracies.  We have spent so much time pursuing generally centrist policies that people become frustrated about a lack of perceived change, no matter on which side of the political divide you sit.

The natural consequence of that is a move away from the centre from both sides so the debates become more polarised and tend to focus towards the extreme and exceptional issues.

Oddly enough as these deabtes become more polarised and the volume of the minorities on either side increase then the silent majority somewhere around the middle become more disillusioned and voter apathy increases.  You then get a situation where a relatively extreme position can influence to a greater degree than it has for a while and then we will start a move back to the middle as the majority start to feel uncomfortable and get engaged again.

You can see it throughout European politics with the rise of more nationalistic parties and a greater degree of conflict, in the narrative at least, between left and right.

[WalkedUp]

4 hours ago, grrclark said:

We have spent so much time pursuing generally centrist policies that people become frustrated about a lack of perceived change, no matter on which side of the political divide you sit.

The natural consequence of that is a move away from the centre from both sides so the debates become more polarised and tend to focus towards the extreme and exceptional issues.

I think this is broadly true, however the change in media is also critical. Before social media it was harder to move from the centre and keep voters as the media pressure was focused on the mainstream parties and candidates ... so no Trump and no BREXIT. There was just far too much fact checking and protocol, the arguments were long fought battle grounds not ridiculous sound bites. No matter which way you vote everyone must agree that old politics is really struggling with new media. It will take a decade to adjust and then we will reflect upon how crude 2015-2025 was.

 

Kanye West is launching a presidential bid just to advertise a new album launch 🙈

Talk about undermining the foundation of democracy 🤣

[Guest]

5 hours ago, grrclark said:

I think the position in the US is broadly similar to here and in fairness most long established western economy democracies.  We have spent so much time pursuing generally centrist policies that people become frustrated about a lack of perceived change, no matter on which side of the political divide you sit.

The natural consequence of that is a move away from the centre from both sides so the debates become more polarised and tend to focus towards the extreme and exceptional issues.

Oddly enough as these deabtes become more polarised and the volume of the minorities on either side increase then the silent majority somewhere around the middle become more disillusioned and voter apathy increases.  You then get a situation where a relatively extreme position can influence to a greater degree than it has for a while and then we will start a move back to the middle as the majority start to feel uncomfortable and get engaged again.

You can see it throughout European politics with the rise of more nationalistic parties and a greater degree of conflict, in the narrative at least, between left and right.

That's a very nice analysis of the situation.

[grrclark]

Certainly the social revolution in the unfettered content, reach and immediacy of information/propaganda/misinformation is a massive challenge.

The real worry is more around how accepting people are of anything that is made to sound reasonably plausible.

[WalkedUp]

You would have to work in my office with professionals in their 20s and 30s to realise how naive people are. We have Trump supporters, BLM supporters, Conservatives, Socialists, BREXITERS, REMAINERS - the only thing that unites is the ability to believe some absolute junk self published on the internet. 

 

Largely it is diets / exercise / fashion but also politics. One of my clients is a high powered doctor, I have to cringe when my guys try to explain the metabolic advantage of the latest fad diet to him. Large scale peer reviewed studies consistently performed over 50+ years are given the same weighting as a YouTube celebrity on Twitter.