Fast forward to UK population having been vaccinated, what do we think happens next?

[AVB]

4 minutes ago, ordnance said:

The vaccine is the exit strategy.

And if it doesn’t work as well as expected/new variants etc whats plan B 

[ordnance]

2 minutes ago, AVB said:

And if it doesn’t work as well as expected/new variants etc whats plan B 

 You would need to ask the government that, i an sure they have looked at a lot of what what ifs. I would think it would be like the flu vaccine, they see what variant in in circulation.  Before this is over there will be numerous vaccines to chose from. 

 

Quote

Moderna's Covid vaccine appears to work against new, more infectious variants of the pandemic virus found in the UK and South Africa, say scientists from the US pharmaceutical company.

 

[Gordon R]

Quote

They just about live in the cab, hardly likely to be big spreaders and put yourself in their shoes, would you want to mix with all these Johnny foreigner Brits?

They enter the country and are as likely or not likely to be carrying the virus. They interact with people albeit on a more limited basis than Piers Corbyn on one of his lunatic rallies. Nationality is not yet recognised by Covid, so it matters not who mixes with who in this scenario.

[AVB]

17 minutes ago, ordnance said:

 You would need to ask the government that, i an sure they have looked at a lot of what what ifs. I would think it would be like the flu vaccine, they see what variant in in circulation.  Before this is over there will be numerous vaccines to chose from. 

 

 

But I’m asking you what you would do. 

[12gauge82]

1 hour ago, henry d said:

They just about live in the cab, hardly likely to be big spreaders and put yourself in their shoes, would you want to mix with all these Johnny foreigner Brits?

Any particular reason for the racial slur at the end of your paragraph? 

[ordnance]

1 hour ago, AVB said:

But I’m asking you what you would do. 

 If they don't work, then i haven't a clue what they will do, if the vaccines don't work then immunity after catching CV19 ( herd immunity ) won't work either. We will be social distancing etc for a long time, but i am sure smarter people than me have looked at that scenario. 

[Raja Clavata]

4 hours ago, AVB said:

The problem with lockdowns/locking borders is that they are a blunt instrument that cannot be sustained for ever. So what's the exit strategy? You unlock the borders and immediately you have reinfection and the cycle starts again. 

Considering that the death rate isn't that bad (remember it has been greater in every year from 2008 backwards) we are only hung up on it because we have it thrust in front of our noses every minute of every day. So learning to live and die with it is just that. We follow an element of social distancing and washing our hands but apart from that we forget about it and it becomes just another thing that will ultimately kill us - Like heart disease, cancer, alzheimer's etc. etc.  

 

In order to have a credible exit strategy you need to have a coherent and informed big picture view. I don’t believe we (UK Govt) do.

If the exit strategy is vaccine then I think we’re all in line for a rude awakening.

2 hours ago, AVB said:

And if it doesn’t work as well as expected/new variants etc whats plan B 

Just reading through. Exactly, that was the basis of the OP.

[ordnance]

Quote

If the exit strategy is vaccine then I think we’re all in line for a rude awakening.

Why, do you know something we don't ?

[Raja Clavata]

Glad to see the news this evening that UK govt will be implementing forced quarantine along the lines of what was being discussed earlier.

I have no idea why there is discussion around foreign lorry drivers in this thread...

[AVB]

42 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

Glad to see the news this evening that UK govt will be implementing forced quarantine along the lines of what was being discussed earlier.

I have no idea why there is discussion around foreign lorry drivers in this thread...

They are considering it, not necessarily implementing it. And there’ll  be exemptions for footballers, cricketers, racing drivers and teams, journalists, MP’s, diplomats, military, lorry drivers,  etc. 

[Mice!]

49 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

Glad to see the news this evening that UK govt will be implementing forced quarantine along the lines of what was being discussed earlier.

I have no idea why there is discussion around foreign lorry drivers in this thread...

That's what they've been doing on the isle of Man with great success,  but its obviously a very small place when compared with pretty much everywhere else so easy to manage.

[Raja Clavata]

43 minutes ago, AVB said:

They are considering it, not necessarily implementing it. And there’ll  be exemptions for footballers, cricketers, racing drivers and teams, journalists, MP’s, diplomats, military, lorry drivers,  etc. 

It’s happening, better late than never and yes there will be exemptions. 

It will be costly and inconvenient enough to ensure only essential international travel takes place but if it allows us to begin to unlock restrictions nationally in Feb then fair enough.

[clangerman]

pr stunt with a list of exceptions long enough for a novel won’t fool anyone borders horse bolted so long ago it’s dog food now the damage is done 

[AVB]

1 hour ago, Raja Clavata said:

It’s happening, better late than never and yes there will be exemptions. 

It will be costly and inconvenient enough to ensure only essential international travel takes place but if it allows us to begin to unlock restrictions nationally in Feb then fair enough.

Only being implemented for SA and Brazil. 

And I see the Germans are claiming that the AstraZeneca vaccine is only 8% effective for the over 65’s. 

Edited January 25, 2021 by AVB

[ordnance]

3 hours ago, AVB said:

Only being implemented for SA and Brazil. 

And I see the Germans are claiming that the AstraZeneca vaccine is only 8% effective for the over 65’s. 

Makes you wonder then why the EU is having a fit and threatening to sue, and ban exports of the AstraZeneca vaccine so they can get more. I think there are some politics at play. 

[Raja Clavata]

10 hours ago, AVB said:

Only being implemented for SA and Brazil. 

And I see the Germans are claiming that the AstraZeneca vaccine is only 8% effective for the over 65’s. 

I'd also heard it wasn't approved here for the over 85's, or at least one of the vaccines isn't and that age group are typically not included in the trials either.

This is one of the reasons for the relatively low acceptance of the vaccine by the public in France.

As I mentioned elsewhere, a lot of folk in the UK are trying to insist on OxAZ vaccine purely on the basis that it's perceived to be British.

Edited January 26, 2021 by Raja Clavata

[Mungler]

I was talking to someone at work yesterday, and she, like many others where I work, has already had "it" and with little ill effect. She is in her 50's and about 10 years ago nearly died because of breast cancer.

Her view, is that reality hasn't hit and until reality does hit we won't appreciate what we can do or what can be done or actually where we are.

With government handouts left right and centre and 7 million people who don't actually have jobs to go back to being supported by the state, everyone thinks they can have everything - a vaccine, a working economy, their jobs back, infinitie and indefinite lockdowns.

It's not until the money runs out / the banks / the stock market collapses that we will see where we are actually going to end up. Take the "choice" off the table i.e. the choice to stay at home and not go to work, and then see what happens.

Her last mention was the acceleration of development, ingenuity and technological leaps that occurred within the limited window of WW2 and applying "necessity is the mother of all invention". What did we get out of WW2? Jet engines, nuclear fission, the technology behind the V2 rocket that put man on the moon etc.

[Mice!]

18 hours ago, Raja Clavata said:

It’s happening, better late than never and yes there will be exemptions. 

It will be costly and inconvenient enough to ensure only essential international travel takes place but if it allows us to begin to unlock restrictions nationally in Feb then fair enough.

Watching the itv news on plus one this morning and they were interviewing an Australian reporter? Returning home, since last April everyone entering Australia has had to isolate,  escorted from the airport to a designated hotel, limited flights and hotels. With many not able to afford to get home.

She said it was costing her around £7K but also that Australia has only had around 29K cases in total,  not per day.

 

[Mungler]

7 minutes ago, Mice! said:

Watching the itv news on plus one this morning and they were interviewing an Australian reporter? Returning home, since last April everyone entering Australia has had to isolate,  escorted from the airport to a designated hotel, limited flights and hotels. With many not able to afford to get home.

She said it was costing her around £7K but also that Australia has only had around 29K cases in total,  not per day.

 

But they can’t do that indefinitely. And not for a communicable disease that 99% plus of people who contract it will survive.

Also, Oz is on its own on the other side of the world. Like New Zealand it’s not a busy travel hub - you couldn’t contemplate that for the likes of Heathrow, Schipol, Frankfurt or Rome.

.

Edited January 26, 2021 by Mungler

[Raja Clavata]

But whilst they are doing it, life in Australia appears to be back to normal, they are certainly not stuck in lock-down.

The point is there is naff all point having the UK locked down but allowing every Tom, **** & Harry come and go as they please.

 

PS - I'd add microwave ovens and the Von Neumann architecture model to the list of WW2 tech. Whilst it's true that wars have traditionally been great accelerators for technology, over the last few years technology has been growing exponentially without great conflicts driving them. 

[Mungler]

Just watched the PM be given a grilling by a load of lefty cry baby journos - one asked him if he had phoned the families of the dead and if not, why not?

Seriously? The world has gone quite mad.

If I was the PM, the next one of these press conferences he does I would have in big old fashioned neon lights behind me:

1. the UK pre-Covid average age of mortality (80 for men, 83 for women).

2. the average age of Covid death (75% all over the age of 75, average of 82 years of age).

just to add a little balance to the screaming mass of bed wetting journalists and doom monger experts.

Edited January 26, 2021 by Mungler

[AVB]

25 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

But whilst they are doing it, life in Australia appears to be back to normal, they are certainly not stuck in lock-down.

The point is there is naff all point having the UK locked down but allowing every Tom, **** & Harry come and go as they please.

 

PS - I'd add microwave ovens and the Von Neumann architecture model to the list of WW2 tech. Whilst it's true that wars have traditionally been great accelerators for technology, over the last few years technology has been growing exponentially without great conflicts driving them. 

They are in and out of regional lockdowns. I don't know why people bother quoting Australia or New Zealand as they are so  different. UK 145 million arrivals per year, Australia 21. They have no land border whereas we do (with Ireland). They have no accompanied freight etc, etc,  

Meanwhile their tourism industry has been decimated.  

6 minutes ago, Mungler said:

Just watched the PM be given a grilling by a load of lefty cry baby journos - one asked him if he had phoned the families of the dead and if not, why not?

Seriously? The world has gone quite mad.

If I was the PM, the next one of these press conferences he does I would have in big old fashioned neon lights behind me:

1. the UK pre-Covid average age of mortality (80 for men, 83 for women).

2. the average age of Covid death 

just to add a little balance to the screaming mass of bed wetting journalists and doom monger experts.

And I see Starmer has been claiming its more than we lost in the Blitz. 

[TIGHTCHOKE]

12 minutes ago, Mungler said:

Just watched the PM be given a grilling by a load of lefty cry baby journos - one asked him if he had phoned the families of the dead and if not, why not?

Seriously? The world has gone quite mad.

If I was the PM, the next one of these press conferences he does I would have in big old fashioned neon lights behind me:

1. the UK pre-Covid average age of mortality (80 for men, 83 for women).

2. the average age of Covid death (75% all over the age of 75, average of 82 years of age).

just to add a little balance to the screaming mass of bed wetting journalists and doom monger experts.

I do wonder how some of the so called journalists sleep at night!

[Mungler]

1 minute ago, TIGHTCHOKE said:

I do wonder how some of the so called journalists sleep at night!

They just said of the 100,000 deaths, 1,000 were under the age of 45 years. 

So that’s a 100-1 minority right there within the death stats themselves. Alternatively, that’s 1,000 out of a population of 70,000,000.

So why do we see on the news nothing but case reports of younger aged people who have succumbed?

For balance, every minute they spend on that type of reporting they should spend 99 minutes telling us about the likes of old Bert who was 92 when he died of Covid having spent the last 5 years starring out the window of a care home he never left and who did not die in his prime but in an natural end of life event for a 92 year old. 

[JohnfromUK]

31 minutes ago, Mungler said:

So that’s a 100-1 minority right there within the death stats themselves. Alternatively, that’s 1,000 out of a population of 70,000,000.

It is true that the old are at a higher risk.  It is NOT true that the risk to the less old and middle aged is minimal.  Currently 'about a quarter of hospital admissions for Covid are for people aged under 55' and about half of all ICU patients were under 65 - highlighting the risk to those who fall outwith the four most vulnerable categories'.

Source https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9184653/Covid-treatable-disease-six-months-NHS-chief-says.html