Brexit - merged threads

[Retsdon]

5 minutes ago, pinfireman said:

I think that Cameron,s intention was to destroy the fast growing UKIP vote,

That as well- but he was also looking to shut up the Eurosceptics. As I said, I highly recommend Shipton's book. He quite obviously has excellent insider access because events and decisions that shaped both Brexit and Remain campaigns are described and related in depth by the people actually involved. His book gives a quite startling insight into how politics is run.

[Bazooka Joe]

Quote

But if it suited the UK government and they were not relying on DUP support i have no doubt they would do what thought they needed to, even if that meant a Irish backstop.

Good point, DUP have saved their bacon twice, wait till they are not needed, Tory's true colour will emerge....

[panoma1]

1 minute ago, oowee said:

The border issue was pointed out to the electorate during the referendum. The 52% voted for a border.

 

Not the Backstop! that is something they thought up later! Yes the Irish border was a known issue, but it wasn't envisaged it would be escalated by and used as the main excuse by the politicians to keep the UK in the EU.

[pinfireman]

7 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

That as well- but he was also looking to shut up the Eurosceptics. As I said, I highly recommend Shipton's book. He quite obviously has excellent insider access because events and decisions that shaped both Brexit and Remain campaigns are described and related in depth by the people actually involved. His book gives a quite startling insight into how politics is run.

He really did not have to shut up the Euro-sceptics...they had been there for years, and were virtually impotent! But UKIP was 4.5 MILLION votes, and growing! They wiped out the Lib/Lab/Con  rabble in the 2014 EU elections! That was the wakeup call for Cameron, 

[oowee]

The border issue was pointed out to everyone. It only became named as the backstop during the negotiations reffering to the last resort option. Its still a .......,.g border. 

Want to avoid a border then customs union or ala Switzerland :-    In joining Schengen, Switzerland has now adopted some of the EU's most contentious policies, including the free movement of labour, the relaxation of border controls, and the Dublin agreement on asylum.

Or we suck it up and build it. I can't see how we square the circle. 

 

 

 

 

Knowing that the Right of her Party and the primary enthusiasts for Brexit within it, attached huge importance to having a fully autonomous and sovereign trade policy, and were completely determined to leave the Customs Union, and abandon the Common External Tariff of the EU27, she promised them that we would indeed leave the Customs Union.  
She simultaneously promised Dublin that somehow or other the move to a different trade and regulatory regime and different tariffs (plus all the issues, from Rules of Origin rules to anti-dumping provisions) would never necessitate the erection of a hard border across the island of Ireland.  
And then, when after finding her Government dependent after the 2017 election, as we have just seen again last week, on Democratic Unionist votes for its survival, she promised the DUP that she would not permit Customs and regulatory divergence between Northern Ireland the rest of Great Britain – which the DUP would regard as a major step on the slippery slope to Irish unification.  
The fact that these three promises are manifestly not all deliverable - one can deliver any 2 of the 3 but self-evidently not the third, as they are mutually contradictory promises - led Dublin, rather understandably, to think that unless it secured legal guarantees that, regardless of whichever trade deal the U.K. struck with the EU, there would be no hard border, it would find its own interests subordinated to the other two commitments, and a hard border would be the inevitable consequence.  

 

[pinfireman]

 

2 minutes ago, oowee said:

The border issue was pointed out to everyone. It only became named as the backstop during the negotiations reffering to the last resort option. Its still a .......,.g border. 

Want to avoid a border then customs union or ala Switzerland :-    In joining Schengen, Switzerland has now adopted some of the EU's most contentious policies, including the free movement of labour, the relaxation of border controls, and the Dublin agreement on asylum.

Or we suck it up and build it. I can't see how we square the circle. 

 

 

 

 

Knowing that the Right of her Party and the primary enthusiasts for Brexit within it, attached huge importance to having a fully autonomous and sovereign trade policy, and were completely determined to leave the Customs Union, and abandon the Common External Tariff of the EU27, she promised them that we would indeed leave the Customs Union.  
She simultaneously promised Dublin that somehow or other the move to a different trade and regulatory regime and different tariffs (plus all the issues, from Rules of Origin rules to anti-dumping provisions) would never necessitate the erection of a hard border across the island of Ireland.  
And then, when after finding her Government dependent after the 2017 election, as we have just seen again last week, on Democratic Unionist votes for its survival, she promised the DUP that she would not permit Customs and regulatory divergence between Northern Ireland the rest of Great Britain – which the DUP would regard as a major step on the slippery slope to Irish unification.  
The fact that these three promises are manifestly not all deliverable - one can deliver any 2 of the 3 but self-evidently not the third, as they are mutually contradictory promises - led Dublin, rather understandably, to think that unless it secured legal guarantees that, regardless of whichever trade deal the U.K. struck with the EU, there would be no hard border, it would find its own interests subordinated to the other two commitments, and a hard border would be the inevitable consequence.  

 

Matt Hancock has given the clearest public signal yet that the Government is considering getting behind moves to remove the backstop from the deal, provided Bercow calls the appropriate amendments on Tuesday. There are rumours of a mass walkout if Bercow again abuses his position to not call a Government-backed amendment with a decent chance of securing a majority…

Edited January 27, 2019 by pinfireman
spelling

[oowee]

This is great but it's not the UK we need to convince it's the EU and they will be looking at WTO rules which they will not want to break.

Most favoured nation.

[pinfireman]

Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney insisted on Marr that the backstop couldn’t be changed because nobody had come up with a “pragmatic, sensible and legally sound” alternative way to avoid a hard border.

That’s despite Michel Barnier saying on Wednesday that the EU would find an “operational way of carrying out checks and controls without putting back in place a border” in the event of no deal and that his team had “worked hard to study how controls can be made paperless or decentralised”. Ireland knows there won’t be a hard border either way but won’t admit it as it will undermine their hardline position on the backstop…

It seems the Left Hand does not know what the right hand is doing.........

[oowee]

2 minutes ago, pinfireman said:

Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney insisted on Marr that the backstop couldn’t be changed because nobody had come up with a “pragmatic, sensible and legally sound” alternative way to avoid a hard border.

That’s despite Michel Barnier saying on Wednesday that the EU would find an “operational way of carrying out checks and controls without putting back in place a border” in the event of no deal and that his team had “worked hard to study how controls can be made paperless or decentralised”. Ireland knows there won’t be a hard border either way but won’t admit it as it will undermine their hardline position on the backstop…

It seems the Left Hand does not know what the right hand is doing.........

👍 There is lots of that 🙂 

But I cannot see them opening all the other EU borders in the same way that WTO terms will require.

Edited January 27, 2019 by oowee

[Retsdon]

7 minutes ago, pinfireman said:

It was NEVER clearly pointed out nationally!

To be honest, there was a lot that wasn't pointed out. And that wasn't accidental. If was Vote Leave's policy not to have a defined Brexit stategy other than a vague aspiration to leave the EU. Dominic Cummings saw that if they had a position or plan they'd have to defend it, whereas without one they were free to devote all their energies to attacking the EU and Remain had no target themselves to hit back against. 

So here we are. Still no plan.

[pinfireman]

Yvette Cooper has said that she “hopes” Corbyn will come out and back her power-grab amendment on Tuesday – obviously without Labour frontbench support it’s not going through. Four years after he defeated her in Labour’s leadership election Corbyn might be about to hand her the power she never managed to win herself

Another nasty piece of work! Her constituency clearly voted Leave!

Just now, Retsdon said:

To be honest, there was a lot that wasn't pointed out. And that wasn't accidental. If was Vote Leave's policy not to have a defined Brexit stategy other than a vague aspiration to leave the EU. Dominic Cummings saw that if they had a position or plan they'd have to defend it, whereas without one they were free to devote all their energies to attacking the EU and Remain had no target themselves to hit back against. 

So here we are. Still no plan.

And, of course, Remain were goody two shoes.....We have NOT forgotten Project Fear! Goebbels would have been proud of it!

Irish Government ministers have been out in force this morning trying to clean up the mess the EU has gotten itself into over the backstop this week. Ireland’s Europe Minister Helen McEntee was evasive on whether there would be no hard border in the event of the deal. Have they been taking lessons from Corbyn on how to maintain so many contradictory positions on Brexit at once?

 

[ordnance]

 

Quote

Ireland knows there won’t be a hard border either way but won’t admit it as it will undermine their hardline position on the backstop…

True but their insistence on a backstop could lead to a no deal the last thing they want.  The ROI would be the biggest losers in a no deal, they are playing a dangerous game. 

[Retsdon]

3 minutes ago, pinfireman said:

We have NOT forgotten Project Fear!

I'd wait until the country is out of the EU before shrugging off these concerns as hoaxes. In the end of the story the wolf turned out to be all too real!

[oowee]

2 minutes ago, pinfireman said:

Yvette Cooper has said that she “hopes” Corbyn will come out and back her power-grab amendment on Tuesday – obviously without Labour frontbench support it’s not going through. Four years after he defeated her in Labour’s leadership election Corbyn might be about to hand her the power she never managed to win herself

Another nasty piece of work! Her constituency clearly voted Leave!

And, of course, Remain were goody two shoes.....We have NOT forgotten Project Fear! Goebbels would have been proud of it!

Quitters created the project fear concept as they did not want to listen to an alternative narrative and wanted to believe in unicorns. This  is the reality of the process. If we are a third country unaligned with the EU we will need a border. If we do not have a border the EU will have to remove all of their borders. 

In international trade, MFN treatment is synonymous with non-discriminatory trade policy because it ensures equal trading among all WTO member nations rather than exclusive trading privileges. For example, if one nation reduces tariffs by 5% for one nation, the MFN clause states that all WTO members will have their tariffs cut by 5% into that nation. In the case of benefits free-trade agreements provide, like those laid out in the North American Free Trade Agreement, those are not subject to the MFN clause as long as the goods are traded between the participating countries only.

[Newbie to this]

If the EU want to put a border in place then that is between them and Ireland.

Edited January 27, 2019 by Newbie to this

[oowee]

Just now, Newbie to this said:

If the EU want to put a borders in place then that is between them and Ireland.

See WTO rules.

[12gauge82]

Maybe the only answer is once we leave the EU, Ireland will need to leave to? 

[Retsdon]

3 minutes ago, 12gauge82 said:

Maybe the only answer is once we leave the EU, Ireland will need to leave to? 

Don't think you'd get much of a vote in Ireland for that!

[oowee]

1 minute ago, Retsdon said:

Don't think you'd get much of a vote in Ireland for that!

No but it would work. If we put the border through the channel the ROI would have all of the benefits that we think NI would have with the backstop enacted LOL. 

[Newbie to this]

21 minutes ago, oowee said:

See WTO rules.

National security waiver, special circumstances.

11 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

Don't think you'd get much of a vote in Ireland for that!

I wouldn't be too sure about that. I follow the Irexit movement and since Ireland became a contributor it is gathering momentum. Same as most places in the EU one of France's yellow jacket demands is out of the EU.

It's a experiment that is failing.

Edited January 27, 2019 by Newbie to this

[JohnfromUK]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6639399/Brexit-leave-UK-unstable-decades-violence-streets-EU-secret-report-warns.html

More "Project Fear", this time from "EU Officials"

 

[Newbie to this]

13 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6639399/Brexit-leave-UK-unstable-decades-violence-streets-EU-secret-report-warns.html

More "Project Fear", this time from "EU Officials"

 

 have they looked at France lately

Edited January 28, 2019 by Newbie to this

[Rewulf]

Just now, Newbie to this said:

 have they look at France lately

Beat me to it 😋 These 'officials' didn't see the gilets jaunes coming did they? 

"Senior intelligence officials warned that civil unrest and rioting is almost inevitable and the UK will be left 'unstable' for decades" 

Well its a move upwards from WW3 I suppose 🤣

[pinfireman]

 OOWEE said"Quitters created the project fear concept as they did not want to listen to an alternative narrative and wanted to believe in unicorns. This  is the reality of the process. If we are a third country unaligned with the EU we will need a border. If we do not have a border the EU will have to remove all of their borders. "

TOTAL RUBBISH! UTTER GARBAGE! PROJECT FEAR CAME FROM GEORGE OSBORNE & CO  THE REMAINERS!

17 hours ago, Retsdon said:

I'd wait until the country is out of the EU before shrugging off these concerns as hoaxes. In the end of the story the wolf turned out to be all too real!

Rubbish!  Let,s go back a bit...."Remain said "half a million people would leave the country and go back to the EU, leaving us desparate in the NHS etc!"  What happened? NOTHING!

"The pound would fall to parity with the Euro"................what happened? Nothing! a couple of percentage points!

"Unemployment would rocket"..................What happened?   Unemployment went down to a historic low level. !

The economy is in better shape now than in June 2016.................

PROJECT FEAR came from REMAIN !

[pinfireman]

17 hours ago, Retsdon said:

To be honest, there was a lot that wasn't pointed out. And that wasn't accidental. If was Vote Leave's policy not to have a defined Brexit stategy other than a vague aspiration to leave the EU. Dominic Cummings saw that if they had a position or plan they'd have to defend it, whereas without one they were free to devote all their energies to attacking the EU and Remain had no target themselves to hit back against. 

So here we are. Still no plan.

Diddums! Did poor Remain  (backed by Government, Opposition, BBC etc etc) not have a target to hit at.....................really, Retsdon, you are scraping the barrel with that one! 

17 hours ago, oowee said:

👍 There is lots of that 🙂 

But I cannot see them opening all the other EU borders in the same way that WTO terms will require.

Business, NOT politicians, will open avenues of trade! When the major industries over in the EU start to feel the pinch, they will find a way around this.....follow the money!  That,s the real world!