BREXIT

[Raja Clavata]

9 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

'Let's just remind ourselves of the predictions certain economists and the then chancellor predicted if we dared to vote to leave the EU. Among then were huge job losses, rising taxes, plummeting house prices the financial market going into double dip recession requiring an emergency budget and the stampede of banks and financial institutions from the City of London as they abandon their offices and flee to Berlin or Paris.
We know that the reality was has been the opposite so far, in fact as shown here the City has grown from strength to strength whilst other institutions like the Deutsche bank struggle. The EU are desperate to keep hold of our money as they are already seeing investments slipping through their fingers as institutions invest in London. As a country we are resilient we plan ahead we have many talented people, and lead in such areas as fintech, science and still instill confidence as a safe place for investment'

https://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKBN1WU0I8?rpc=401&__twitter_impression=true&fbclid=IwAR2uB-8I1uHWEkCC4il-wJMf86sybhrPzvJqUKli5F59_zgIvmEFElw6MEE

Interesting article. I think the key phrase on the London financial stability is "so far" though suspect it will remain strong. So, this implies that the City and London will be largely unaffected by Brexit which begs the question of where then will the impact be felt...?

We are indeed world leaders in scientific research but have a pretty poor record on industrialisation / commercial exploitation of the research which is often realised elsewhere.

BoJo was banging on about our EV battery technology but it wasn't clear to me exactly what he was referring to, I assume not the Dyson products given the latest news on their EV vehicle plans.

[Rewulf]

16 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

Indeed and many believe this whole thing is largely driven by the real rich elite wanting to avoid new EU banking and investment rules which will affect their hedge funds and trading; assisted by very clever tactics of exploiting the sensitivities and biases of those who are disaffected and feel marginalised by the EU and wider globalisation.

Her Majesty actually referred to the banking aspect in the speech yesterday and I'm surprised to see that this has not been picked up on more widely.

Its OK saying this , but quite how they got 17.4 million people to vote for it remains to be explained, especially when they first said it was all about immigration ?

But then you say this , which sort of negates the above.

3 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

Interesting article. I think the key phrase on the London financial stability is "so far" though suspect it will remain strong. So, this implies that the City and London will be largely unaffected by Brexit which begs the question of where then will the impact be felt...?

Maybe the 'impact' wont be felt that strongly at all ?

The vote itself was suppose to cause economic and financial cataclysm , but it just simply didnt...

So the predicted economic and financial cataclysm when we do actually leave is also somewhat questionable is it not ?

[Raja Clavata]

3 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

Its OK saying this , but quite how they got 17.4 million people to vote for it remains to be explained, especially when they first said it was all about immigration ?

But then you say this , which sort of negates the above.

Maybe the 'impact' wont be felt that strongly at all ?

The vote itself was suppose to cause economic and financial cataclysm , but it just simply didnt...

So the predicted economic and financial cataclysm when we do actually leave is also somewhat questionable is it not ?

Indeed it is. My only real point was that both sides exaggerated and manipulated the predictions to suit their own agendas e.g. how easy the deal with Europe would be if we voted to leave...

[Mice!]

6 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

We are indeed world leaders in scientific research but have a pretty poor record on industrialisation / commercial exploitation of the research which is often realised elsewhere.

Is this not because it's far easier and cheaper to have things made abroad? We could and can make anything but if companies want maximum profit they go where it's cheapest.

15 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

Interesting article. I think the key phrase on the London financial stability is "so far" though suspect it will remain strong. So, this implies that the City and London will be largely unaffected by Brexit which begs the question of where then will the impact be felt...?

Maybe the impact will be felt in Europe? Not in the United Kingdon 🤔

[Raja Clavata]

2 minutes ago, Mice! said:

Is this not because it's far easier and cheaper to have things made abroad? We could and can make anything but if companies want maximum profit they go where it's cheapest.

It is easier and cheaper yes but it's not because of this. It's the step between proving the concept and developing some kind of proof of concept and then taking that and transforming it into an industrialised product. 

Maybe the impact will be felt in Europe? Not in the United Kingdon 🤔

I don't see how it wouldn't be felt in both the UK and Europe as well as the RoW to a lesser degree.

 

[Capt Christopher Jones]

she should not have endorsed a political stunt, this QS has no legs, it cant be done

[Rewulf]

4 minutes ago, Capt Christopher Jones said:

she should not have endorsed a political stunt, this QS has no legs, it cant be done

Thats a very final sort of statement.

Of course it CAN be done, whether it WILL be done is the question.
I notice you dont actually disagree with the sentiments of the proposals ?

The fact of the matter is , it CANT be done until the opposition either start helping the government to deliver on the reforms, or are gracious enough to allow a GE to have them removed, and allow others to do so.

[Retsdon]

' The well-known World Trade Model at Cardiff University – a model which has over the years achieved a great deal of success in its forecasting – predicts a long-term boost to the UK economy of 4 per cent of GDP.'

He's talking about Patrick Minford  - so nothing to say there.

 

'Even the Centre for Business Research at Cambridge University estimated a boost to UK GDP of up to 2 per cent.'

Quote

Well, their latest paper is from January 2018,

...and is mostly backward looking. And their predictions are/were based on certain admitted assumptions, namely:-

 • Small (0.25%) ‘uncertainty’ reduction in business and household investment and in household consumption for 2017, diminishing through 2018-19.

• Assumes a 2-year transition period until 2021 followed by a free trade agreement from 2022.

• Loss of EU trade from 2022 building up within 3 years to 10%, with slow replacement in non-EU markets.

• Reduction in imports from EU but half replaced by imports from non-EU countries.

• Interest rates remain very low and public spending a little higher than would have been the case without Brexit.

• Brexit effect on net migration is a fall of 35K, but sterling depreciation adds further declines (initially 55K).

 

There are an awful lot of assumptions there that that a No Deal Brexit would blow clean out of the water. 

[Rewulf]

1 minute ago, Retsdon said:

There are an awful lot of assumptions there that that a No Deal Brexit would blow clean out of the water. 

Correct , we wouldnt want to be doing any assuming do we ?

[Retsdon]

Just now, Rewulf said:

Correct , we wouldnt want to be doing any assuming do we ?

All economics is based on assumptions. What's your point?

[Rewulf]

25 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

All economics is based on assumptions. What's your point?

Quite simple really, assumptions are not facts, and are based on opinions.

Opinions that cherry pick facts and other peoples opinions according to ones bias.

But you knew that already didnt you ?

[Rewulf]

Is that what you call a coup ?
Apparently this bunch of totally powerless MEPs truly believe they can steer the fate of this country from their seats in Brussels 🤣

Theyve been mixing with the EU elite for a few months now, so probably believe this is how it works, politics and democracy EU style.

[oowee]

4 hours ago, Rewulf said:

Thats right people , lets keep EU jobs in the EU, err , except when theres big bucks to be earned NOT keeping them in the EU.

https://www.european-views.com/2019/09/rewarding-erdogan-forgoing-the-eu-the-moral-from-volkswagens-new-factory-in-turkey/?fbclid=IwAR1TkB8ae-oAvTOEhRDv8XbBWHYKvxE1XNSgja4njxJ-ARMOZW_0_TdeaOY

Interesting article. 

The 2016 referendum shocked many of the masters of London's financial universe, triggering the biggest one-day fall of the pound since the era of free-floating exchange rates was introduced in the early 1970s.

But so far, most major financial institutions have opted against moving large numbers of people and activities until the loss of access to the EU's lucrative single market is confirmed.

Banks, insurers and asset managers have shifted over a trillion euros of assets such as derivatives and bonds from London to the continent and opened new EU hubs as a hedge against London suddenly being cut off from the bloc if Britain exits the EU without a formal agreement.

The Bank of England estimates around 4,000 people may have moved by the time Britain has exited the EU. But the key decisions are still taken in London.

[TIGHTCHOKE]

WoW!  4000 you say!

[oowee]

Just now, TIGHTCHOKE said:

WoW!  4000 you say!

Not me the BoE we know all know its way higher than that.

[Rewulf]

11 minutes ago, oowee said:

Interesting article. 

The 2016 referendum shocked many of the masters of London's financial universe, triggering the biggest one-day fall of the pound since the era of free-floating exchange rates was introduced in the early 1970s.

But so far, most major financial institutions have opted against moving large numbers of people and activities until the loss of access to the EU's lucrative single market is confirmed.

Banks, insurers and asset managers have shifted over a trillion euros of assets such as derivatives and bonds from London to the continent and opened new EU hubs as a hedge against London suddenly being cut off from the bloc if Britain exits the EU without a formal agreement.

The Bank of England estimates around 4,000 people may have moved by the time Britain has exited the EU. But the key decisions are still taken in London.

Ill finish it off for you shall I  ?

 

The Bank of England estimates around 4,000 people may have moved by the time Britain has exited the EU. But the key decisions are still taken in London.

Reuters contacted JP Morgan and Goldman, and rivals Citi (C.N), Bank of America (BAC.N), UBS (UBSG.S), Morgan Stanley (MS.N), Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) and Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE), to seek details on how a ‘no deal Brexit’ might accelerate the transfer of resources and activities from London.

All banks said they were prepared for a no-deal Brexit, and had been since the first quarter.

Earlier this year, Morgan Stanley’s chief executive, James Gorman, said that he scarcely worried about Brexit.

“That’s not in my top 200 issues,” he said.

British data shows the total number of people employed in the City between 2016 and 2018 overall rose by 31,000, though the total number of people employed specifically in banking and insurance is down 3,000 over the period.

 

My nephew works in investment for Deutsche  bank in London, he trains investment bankers, so he generally knows what hes talking about.
No one in the city is overly concerned about Brexit, in fact they are quite looking forward to it .

[TIGHTCHOKE]

9 minutes ago, TIGHTCHOKE said:

WoW!  4000 you say!

 

7 minutes ago, oowee said:

Not me the BoE we know all know its way higher than that.

Do we, surely the old reliable BoE lead by that paragon of self virtue Mark Carney couldn't be telling porkies, could it?

Edited October 15, 2019 by TIGHTCHOKE
CAPITALLISATION!

[JohnfromUK]

2 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

No one in the city is overly concerned about Brexit,

That's what I have also heard; the worry is the uncertainty of the whole present situation - and not knowing either how it will resolve of when it will resolve.

[Capt Christopher Jones]

2 hours ago, Rewulf said:

Thats a very final sort of statement.

Of course it CAN be done, whether it WILL be done is the question.
I notice you dont actually disagree with the sentiments of the proposals ?

The fact of the matter is , it CANT be done until the opposition either start helping the government to deliver on the reforms, or are gracious enough to allow a GE to have them removed, and allow others to do so.

I dont agree

the tories have decimated the services over the past 9 years, now that hail reinstating them as "an achievement".

All this bluster on the QS is political window dressing, nothing less.

He is no statesman just an ill dressed slob & chancer, furthering his own aggrandisement  & HM should not be any part of the Bozo show

Edited October 15, 2019 by Capt Christopher Jones

[TIGHTCHOKE]

10 minutes ago, Capt Christopher Jones said:

I dont agree

the tories have decimated the services over the past 9 years, now that hail reinstating them as "an achievement".

All this bluster on the QS is political window dressing, nothing less.

He is no statesman just an ill dressed slob & chancer, furthering his own aggrandisement  & HM should not be any part of the Bozo show

And your alternative is?

[Newbie to this]

On 14/10/2019 at 14:00, Raja Clavata said:

No, it's the Express saying it, not the EU.

No, it was Merkle that said it, the Express (along with others), just reported it.

[oowee]

18 minutes ago, TIGHTCHOKE said:

 

Do we, surely the old reliable BoE lead by that paragon of self virtue Mark Carney couldn't be telling porkies, could it?

Ask Rewulf it was his proposition.

 

22 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

My nephew works in investment for Deutsche  bank in London, he trains investment bankers, so he generally knows what hes talking about.

No one in the city is overly concerned about Brexit, in fact they are quite looking forward to it .

Just listening to the SNP party conference. I have to admire the ambition of the SNP compared to the Tories. 

Abolish House of Lords and bring in a written constitution. Would be great to have some ambition south of the border. 

[Rewulf]

1 minute ago, Capt Christopher Jones said:

He is no statesman just an ill dressed slob & chancer, furthering his own aggrandisement  & HM should not be any part of the Bozo show

I really thought you were talking about our Corby there 🤣

 

2 minutes ago, Capt Christopher Jones said:

the tories have decimated the services over the past 9 years, now that hail reinstating them as "an achievement".

Its called austerity, and its a direct result of tryin to reduce the considerable debts of the last labour government.
But lets not let facts get in the way of a good old tory bashing session.

The problem with this type of opposition is they are opposing everything !
Boris says we are going to employ 20000 more cops and increase sentences to combat crime - Corbyn shrieks THATS NOT GOOD ENOUGH !

And so on ...

[Rewulf]

3 minutes ago, oowee said:

Ask Rewulf it was his proposition.

Never mentioned Carney or the BOE did I  ?

 

3 minutes ago, oowee said:

Just listening to the SNP party conference. I have to admire the ambition of the SNP compared to the Tories. 

Abolish House of Lords and bring in a written constitution. Would be great to have some ambition south of the border. 

Im all for a written constitution, a UK one, theres  a slight issue though...

It cant conflict with the Bill of Rights , which is unassailable .
We need to be completely free of EU laws, or there is obviously conflict there.
It needs a vote through parliament on its contents, THEN  it needs a national referendum with a minimum level affirmation value.

Think all thats possible, no me neither.

[oowee]

7 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

I really thought you were talking about our Corby there 🤣

 

Its called austerity, and its a direct result of tryin to reduce the considerable debts of the last labour government.
But lets not let facts get in the way of a good old tory bashing session.

The problem with this type of opposition is they are opposing everything !
Boris says we are going to employ 20000 more cops and increase sentences to combat crime - Corbyn shrieks THATS NOT GOOD ENOUGH !

And so on ...

20000 new cops  . Its another bread to the masses populist right wing unicorn policy.  You don't tackle a disease by treating a symptom.