Small "bubbles" ...

[henry d]

People's reflections on this idea?

Loneliness and C19

[Mice!]

###The need to keep social distancing in place will put an upper limit on class sizes, she said.

She said: “So if it’s the case that we need to keep kids in school two metres apart from each other then that will put an upper limit on how many people can be in a classroom.

“So do we have to take classes divide them into two, where half of the class is there one week, the other half the other week or one half in the morning and the afternoon?#####

Not sure how schools could do the 2mtr distance, kids want to play and interact 

It would be nice for families to be able to see each other again,  talking to my mate last night, neither of us know of any family members affected by the virus, were both following the rules and simply avoiding folk when out shopping. But something will have to give at some point. 

[henry d]

My wife works in a SEN school and they have a limited number of (vulnerable) children and a few staff in, distancing is hard but they are looking at increasing the number of children.

Any person showing symptoms is not allowed in and must self isolate for 14 days. My wife has to disrobe once in the house and decontaminate/shower ASAP and clothing washed@ 60'C immediately. 

The idea that small groups of people can meet so that they are not totally isolated is a good idea but many 3rd sector groups are already helping in this way.

[grrclark]

My take on the approach by the Scottish Government is that they wanted to show some consideration of what any movement might be post lockdown, but it's all really pretty hollow because it cannot be anything but hollow just now.

I think that bubbles of social interaction are eminently sensible, but of course if you suggest something that is constrained by definition, i.e. a bubble, then you have to establish the rules of constraint and then it's a bloody great morass of a problem.

We are all desperate for an easy answer and outcome and there isn't one.

[henry d]

It's nice, but late, and if I were to be cynical; almost a testing ground for exiting lockdown for the rest of the population.

[Scully]

As I’ve said on here many times before, we live in the sticks here, and most families haven’t stopped socialising. OH and me walked to the pub tonight to join the queue for fish and chips, all socially distancing as per the guidelines, but on the way we passed two houses where families were having barbecues, both consisting of more people than live there.
Social gatherings are going to happen whether the governments approve or not, and increasingly more so the longer this goes on, and especially if this weather continues. 

No one has yet had to queue for anything in the rain. It sounds trivial, but it won’t be if the weather changes for the worst. 
Not an easy choice for governments ; to what extent do you relax social distancing to help the economy, and for the benefit of individuals and families themselves, but ensure we don’t create a second wave, and always aware that if you don’t do something soon, many people may simply just decide they’ve had enough. It’s already heading that way if the news is anything to go by.

[Mice!]

1 hour ago, Scully said:

No one has yet had to queue for anything in the rain. It sounds trivial, but it won’t be if the weather changes for the worst

I know what you mean, 15 people queuing outside Aldi in the sunshine is no bid deal, had this have happened in February it would have been a whole lot different 

1 hour ago, Scully said:

Social gatherings are going to happen whether the governments approve or not, and increasingly more so the longer this goes on, and especially if this weather continues. 

I have been surprised how the majority have gone along with the lockdown,  our kids being younger aren't really that affected but I'm sure teenagers must be bouncing off the walls, those without good gardens must really be suffering. 

 

[TRINITY]

I had to pop out this morning and drove into the centre of my town. I passed a number of supermarkets and the car parks were as busy as pre covid. I drove past the local BM stores the car park was packed and a massive queue outside. I would go as far to say it was never that busy pre covid, in fact I thought what is so important in that store that so many are out taking a risk to shop there. 

The traffic on roads was quite heavy, never seen as many cyclists. Most footpaths also busy with walkers. Some groups and walkers suggested by their numbers that they were obviously more than one family group.

Just my own observations on my local area but it looks like people are no longer taking this lockdown as seriously as before. From what I saw,even the slightest easing would single a huge amount of the population returning to pre covid behaviour 

[TIGHTCHOKE]

19 minutes ago, TRINITY said:

I had to pop out this morning and drove into the centre of my town. I passed a number of supermarkets and the car parks were as busy as pre covid. I drove past the local BM stores the car park was packed and a massive queue outside. I would go as far to say it was never that busy pre covid, in fact I thought what is so important in that store that so many are out taking a risk to shop there. 

The traffic on roads was quite heavy, never seen as many cyclists. Most footpaths also busy with walkers. Some groups and walkers suggested by their numbers that they were obviously more than one family group.

Just my own observations on my local area but it looks like people are no longer taking this lockdown as seriously as before. From what I saw,even the slightest easing would single a huge amount of the population returning to pre covid behaviour 

Do you think that will lead to the Government tightening things up rather than relax the restrictions?

[Mice!]

1 hour ago, TIGHTCHOKE said:

Do you think that will lead to the Government tightening things up rather than relax the restrictions?

Did yesterday's news not say Wales were tightening their lockdown?

[TRINITY]

I think the government are afraid of giving an inch and the public taking a mile.

I also think having three different 'governments' on our small island is stupid (that's a wider argument). Let's say either one of them eases restrictions and others dont , the result would be chaotic.  

I therefore think the government will keep things as they are for sometime and allow the public to push the boundaries. If this causes a reverse of the virus and numbers start to build, it let's the government off the hook . If things keep steady then no problem a blind eye will be turned.

Edited April 25, 2020 by TRINITY

[walshie]

40 minutes ago, Mice! said:

Did yesterday's news not say Wales were tightening their lockdown?

It did, but I can confirm people in Wales are going by the UK Government rules, not the Welsh one who make up new rules to appear different and relevant. 

[Mice!]

1 hour ago, TRINITY said:

think the government are afraid of giving an inch and the public taking a mile.

Sounds right.

1 hour ago, walshie said:

It did, but I can confirm people in Wales are going by the UK Government rules, not the Welsh one who make up new rules to appear different and relevant. 

I didn't catch what was said, certainly sounded odd.

[walshie]

27 minutes ago, Mice! said:

I didn't catch what was said, certainly sounded odd.

Nonsense like you can't travel outside your "local area" without specifying what a local area is. You can't ride your bike further than you could walk?etc. etc. It makes no sense. Rules for rules sake. 

[Retsdon]

The overall UK reported death to reported case ratio is currently running at 13.7%. Of course that changes from day to day but let's just call it 10% to make the calculation simple. Today there were 4,913 new reported cases. So, unless things change for the better you could estimate that today another 490 people will be destined for the long drop.

The average time from the onset of symptoms to hospitalization is between 7 and 10 days, and the average incubation period before the onset of symptoms is 3-7 days. The lockdown started on the 23rd of March which was 4 weeks ago, so while there might be fliers it's safe to assume that the bulk of today's almost  5,000 cases were initially infected after lockdown measures were in force.

So, 5000 infections ->500  deaths a day with the lockdown in situ would suggest either a) that the lockdown isn't working, or b) that the situation might become simply hellish if the lockdown were to be eased. No good options either way 

 

Edited April 25, 2020 by Retsdon

[grrclark]

Good post Retsdon, a very simple explanation of the numbers that I would wager hardly anyone will consider in that way.

[mel b3]

9 hours ago, Retsdon said:

The overall UK reported death to reported case ratio is currently running at 13.7%. Of course that changes from day to day but let's just call it 10% to make the calculation simple. Today there were 4,913 new reported cases. So, unless things change for the better you could estimate that today another 490 people will be destined for the long drop.

The average time from the onset of symptoms to hospitalization is between 7 and 10 days, and the average incubation period before the onset of symptoms is 3-7 days. The lockdown started on the 23rd of March which was 4 weeks ago, so while there might be fliers it's safe to assume that the bulk of today's almost  5,000 cases were initially infected after lockdown measures were in force.

So, 5000 infections ->500  deaths a day with the lockdown in situ would suggest either a) that the lockdown isn't working, or b) that the situation might become simply hellish if the lockdown were to be eased. No good options either way 

 

This is probably the best post that pw has seen in the last month.

Not many of us are happy about Lockdown,  but just look at what we could have been facing if it hadn't happened 😑. 

[henry d]

The Scottish government have released a framework for moving on called Looking beyond lockdown

It's a long document but a quick flick through and the main points seem to be;

1-social distancing and hygiene will stay in place

2-regional/geographic areas were mentioned but none specified so hopefully some areas will have less restrictions than others.

3-workplace distancing was mentioned but that will be problematic as you can imagine

4- lifting/reimplantation of restrictions is mentioned regularly

On the whole there is nothing substantial in it but at least they are actively looking at the best way forward.

I'm off for our daily walk and hope to read it more fully in the garden with a cuppa when we return, have a look and let me know what you think?

[Mice!]

1 hour ago, henry d said:

I'm off for our daily walk and hope to read it more fully in the garden with a cuppa when we return, have a look and let me know what you think?

No intention of looking,  I imagine it's like Walshie said above, 

 

16 hours ago, walshie said:

It did, but I can confirm people in Wales are going by the UK Government rules, not the Welsh one who make up new rules to appear different and relevant. 

I'd be very very surprised if the Scottish "Gov " did anything before the UK.

[TRINITY]

Be interesting if they relaxed measures before England. Particularly if they allowed shooting to resume on a controlled basis.

Gun in the car,then tally ho ! 

The clay grounds could be swamped by a sassenach invasion

[islandgun]

14 hours ago, Retsdon said:

The overall UK reported death to reported case ratio is currently running at 13.7%. Of course that changes from day to day but let's just call it 10% to make the calculation simple. Today there were 4,913 new reported cases. So, unless things change for the better you could estimate that today another 490 people will be destined for the long drop.

The average time from the onset of symptoms to hospitalization is between 7 and 10 days, and the average incubation period before the onset of symptoms is 3-7 days. The lockdown started on the 23rd of March which was 4 weeks ago, so while there might be fliers it's safe to assume that the bulk of today's almost  5,000 cases were initially infected after lockdown measures were in force.

So, 5000 infections ->500  deaths a day with the lockdown in situ would suggest either a) that the lockdown isn't working, or b) that the situation might become simply hellish if the lockdown were to be eased. No good options either way 

 

Hellish seems to be the correct assumption.  looks like self imposed lockdown might be the best option whatever the government decide

[Scully]

43 minutes ago, TRINITY said:

Be interesting if they relaxed measures before England. Particularly if they allowed shooting to resume on a controlled basis.

Gun in the car,then tally ho ! 

The clay grounds could be swamped by a sassenach invasion

And with Westlands just over the Border.....😀

Tongue in cheek remark.
A lot depends of course whether certain people are happy to return to work, and that in itself opens up further implications. 

[TRINITY]

17 hours ago, Retsdon said:

 

So, 5000 infections ->500  deaths a day with the lockdown in situ would suggest either a) that the lockdown isn't working, or b) that the situation might become simply hellish if the lockdown were to be eased. No good options either way 

 

Certainly gives food for thought. Now I am only speculating, I would assume the government have some simple facts and statistics in respect of the backgrounds of these fatalities. If that is the case, taking away the unfortunate ones with other serious conditions, they will have a good idea of the percentage of these who were involved in some form of work capacity during the lockdown. If that is an high percentage, then I am sure they would try and keep it quiet . My opion is that most of these infections are, because i find it hard to believe that if you stick rigidly to the guidelines how the infection rate would be stubbornly remain so high after lockdown

[henry d]

7 minutes ago, TRINITY said:

My opion is that most of these infections are, because i find it hard to believe that if you stick rigidly to the guidelines how the infection rate would be stubbornly remain so high after lockdown

Go read the framework document, it helps explain it better.

[Retsdon]

1 hour ago, henry d said:

Go read the framework document, it helps explain it better.

I'm impressed. A government document that actually specifies breaking 'the chain of transmission' as a goal. I've mentioned on PW before that one of my beefs with the Westminster government is that leadership has been almost non existent. Fine, lock people down, but then they need to know why. Not overwhelming the NHS, or keeping Nan safe as goals are far too vague for most people to relate to. But a specific target - to drive the R0 rate below 1 - is a real target that everyone can see and aim for. Daily updates, little graphs on the news  etc, etc, - get the whole country to feel they have skin in the game and can personally make a difference. Not the same thing at all as enforcing a lockdown on a sullen and unwilling populace at policepoint. 

A little bit of leadership...