Time for independence?

[grrclark]

What a depressing read through In the main.

Interesting in parts, especially about decentralisation, however that bizarrely is the opposite current SNP behaviour where they are alienating councils, especially non SNP controlled ones, and pulling authority back to Edinburgh.  Hence Shetland agitating for a devolved solution.

A federal UK is an interesting academic exercise, but one I don’t think could ever be achieved.  For common areas such as defence there is already a massive disconnect between SNP and rUK, if considering things such as harmonised foods standards then taking the latest bill in parliament as an example there is no easy outcome there.  How would we apportion the share of assets and liabilities, how might the option of variable taxation work when considering federal government bonds/gilts yields or is that devolved down to state level so effectively Wales and NI could never borrow at anything other than savagely punitive rates, Scotland little better and England little better still.?
The only workable outcome, and I say that with a huge qualification, would be total secession from the union and that would do significant harm to iScotland and rUK for at least 2 generations.

A question often touted by Scot Nationalists, although completely falsely, is that if Scotland is a drain on English resources why does UK government fight against Scotland leaving.

The truth is Scotland isn’t a drain on English or rUK resource, no more than Yorkshire is or Cornwall or London.

The disbursement of funds via Barnett is only one measure against very many that needs to be considered, likewise apportionment of notional tax revenues.

AVB would you advise buying a business just looking at the current account balance or payroll costs?

I am in no doubt whatsoever that an iScotland would ultimately be a self sustaining and successful small nation, however it will come at significant cost in the medium term, 20-30 years, and it will bear little reflection to what is here now.  It will also not deliver against the narrative promoted by so many of the nationalist camp.

Scottish secession from the UK would be Immensely damaging on both side of the border, especially so in a post Brexit scenario.

If we are daft enough to vote that way, should another referendum happen, i’ll be OK.  There will be opportunity for me to make an absolute fortune in the chaos and mayhem that will follow, but sadly i will be in the minority who will gain.

Bizarrely it’s the people who stand to lose out the most in terms of lost opportunity for them and their kids who are keenest to vote for it; The folk who would ride out the bumps and difficulties would vote no, yet we’re the ones selling the nation short 🤔

Edited October 23, 2020 by grrclark
Formatting of mobile reply.

[AVB]

56 minutes ago, grrclark said:

What a depressing read through In the main.

Interesting in parts, especially about decentralisation, however that bizarrely is the opposite current SNP behaviour where they are alienating councils, especially non SNP controlled ones, and pulling authority back to Edinburgh.  Hence Shetland agitating for a devolved solution.

A federal UK is an interesting academic exercise, but one I don’t think could ever be achieved.  For common areas such as defence there is already a massive disconnect between SNP and rUK, if considering things such as harmonised foods standards then taking the latest bill in parliament as an example there is no easy outcome there.  How would we apportion the share of assets and liabilities, how might the option of variable taxation work when considering federal government bonds/gilts yields or is that devolved down to state level so effectively Wales and NI could never borrow at anything other than savagely punitive rates, Scotland little better and England little better still.?
The only workable outcome, and I say that with a huge qualification, would be total secession from the union and that would do significant harm to iScotland and rUK for at least 2 generations.

A question often touted by Scot Nationalists, although completely falsely, is that if Scotland is a drain on English resources why does UK government fight against Scotland leaving.

The truth is Scotland isn’t a drain on English or rUK resource, no more than Yorkshire is or Cornwall or London.

The disbursement of funds via Barnett is only one measure against very many that needs to be considered, likewise apportionment of notional tax revenues.

AVB would you advise buying a business just looking at the current account balance or payroll costs?

I am in no doubt whatsoever that an iScotland would ultimately be a self sustaining and successful small nation, however it will come at significant cost in the medium term, 20-30 years, and it will bear little reflection to what is here now.  It will also not deliver against the narrative promoted by so many of the nationalist camp.

Scottish secession from the UK would be Immensely damaging on both side of the border, especially so in a post Brexit scenario.

If we are daft enough to vote that way, should another referendum happen, i’ll be OK.  There will be opportunity for me to make an absolute fortune in the chaos and mayhem that will follow, but sadly i will be in the minority who will gain.

Bizarrely it’s the people who stand to lose out the most in terms of lost opportunity for them and their kids who are keenest to vote for it; The folk who would ride out the bumps and difficulties would vote no, yet we’re the ones selling the nation short 🤔

I agree with everything you’ve written there.  Particularly that Scotland could become a successful small nation but imo unlikely to be as successful as it is being part of the U.K.  

[grrclark]

15 minutes ago, AVB said:

I agree with everything you’ve written there.  Particularly that Scotland could become a successful small nation but imo unlikely to be as successful as it is being part of the U.K.  

Agreed, i think the immediate harm of the next 20-30 years would have a lasting limiting impact.  The main benefit to my way of thinking could be a significantly smaller state machine, but that is absolutely the polar opposite of the current narrative.

[Mice!]

36 minutes ago, grrclark said:

Agreed, i think the immediate harm of the next 20-30 years would have a lasting limiting impact.  The main benefit to my way of thinking could be a significantly smaller state machine, but that is absolutely the polar opposite of the current narrative.

That's it though, the idea of 20-30 years of hardship for the lower income families seems nuts, we haven't done a year with the tough conditions of covid yet, how are families going to manage a couple of decades, all so someone can say they freed Scotland from England,  but ruined it doing it. 

[grrclark]

28 minutes ago, Mice! said:

That's it though, the idea of 20-30 years of hardship for the lower income families seems nuts, we haven't done a year with the tough conditions of covid yet, how are families going to manage a couple of decades, all so someone can say they freed Scotland from England,  but ruined it doing it. 

People adjust, those at the very bottom probably wouldn't really notice all that much, the aspiring band above that would feel it harder, but the ones that would feel it hardest are the squeezed middle, but over time they would adjust.

The underpinning message that resonates with many is one of hope, entirely disingenuously as it happens, but the big slogan by the nationalist campaigners is Hope over Fear, folk align to that as it is much easier want to believe rather in an optimistic outcome than the far harsher reality.

The same applies to Brexit, there is an awful lot of misguided belief in the 'magic' of Brexit instead of the reality of that too.  I happen to believe that there is a beneficial outcome that can be had from Brexit, (however, the utter buffoon in No'10 is unlikely to be the one to deliver that despite his belief in his Churchillian image, but that is for another thread) but that is going to mean a change of shape from where we are now and lots of people who voted for it are not going to like the taste of what is delivered.

 

[Vince Green]

17 hours ago, grrclark said:

People adjust, those at the very bottom probably wouldn't really notice all that much, the aspiring band above that would feel it harder, but the ones that would feel it hardest are the squeezed middle, but over time they would adjust.

The underpinning message that resonates with many is one of hope, entirely disingenuously as it happens, but the big slogan by the nationalist campaigners is Hope over Fear, folk align to that as it is much easier want to believe rather in an optimistic outcome than the far harsher reality.

The same applies to Brexit, there is an awful lot of misguided belief in the 'magic' of Brexit instead of the reality of that too.  I happen to believe that there is a beneficial outcome that can be had from Brexit, (however, the utter buffoon in No'10 is unlikely to be the one to deliver that despite his belief in his Churchillian image, but that is for another thread) but that is going to mean a change of shape from where we are now and lots of people who voted for it are not going to like the taste of what is delivered.

 

I don't really think the parallel with Brexit comes off that well. The EU is a very expensive club to be in 

[grrclark]

21 hours ago, Vince Green said:

I don't really think the parallel with Brexit comes off that well. The EU is a very expensive club to be in 

The parallel is that the impact of Brexit will be felt large by very many people and it absolutely wont be the magical nirvana that so many appear to think  it will be.

In time it absolutely can and I believe will work, (albeit after a change in senior government) but in the interim there will be very many people who feel short changed relative to their expectations.

[12gauge82]

26 minutes ago, grrclark said:

The parallel is that the impact of Brexit will be felt large by very many people and it absolutely wont be the magical nirvana that so many appear to think  it will be.

In time it absolutely can and I believe will work, (albeit after a change in senior government) but in the interim there will be very many people who feel short changed relative to their expectations.

You cant guarantee that at all, no more than the leave side can guarantee success, I believe there will be short term winners and losers followed by long term success for most, particularly the working class. But there's no guarantee either way. 

[grrclark]

8 hours ago, 12gauge82 said:

You cant guarantee that at all, no more than the leave side can guarantee success, I believe there will be short term winners and losers followed by long term success for most, particularly the working class. But there's no guarantee either way. 

I voted leave, it’s not about taking a side.

it’s taking an objective and considered view of what is a momentous change.

I hope the working class do benefit.

[Newbie to this]

35 minutes ago, grrclark said:

I hope the working class do benefit.

So do most, unfortunately there are those who would like nothing more than for it to be a complete failure, simply beacuse they didn't vote for it!

[matone]

Covid has exposed the Banana Republics created by devolution nonsense for what they are...a waste of public funds,squandered on another layer of clingons .A total waste of money .

The last thing this little island needs is division caused by political posturing which is what we have witnessed throughout what should be a nationally dealt with crisis.

Edited October 25, 2020 by matone

[Newbie to this]

1 hour ago, matone said:

Covid has exposed the Banana Republics created by devolution nonsense for what they are...a waste of public funds,squandered on another layer of clingons .A total waste of money .

The last thing this little island needs is division caused by political posturing which is what we have witnessed throughout what should be a nationally dealt with crisis.

Well said 

[Gordon R]

Quote

 

Covid has exposed the Banana Republics created by devolution nonsense for what they are...a waste of public funds,squandered on another layer of clingons .A total waste of money .

The last thing this little island needs is division caused by political posturing which is what we have witnessed throughout what should be a nationally dealt with crisis.

 

I agree.