AVB Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 And we are still going to destroy the economy by going into lockdown when there appears to be evidence that the local tier approach was working. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vince Green Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 Its Monday though, you cant trust Monday figures Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVB Posted November 2, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 Lower than last Mondays numbers though and they also fell twice last week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clangerman Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 all the data is like adverts now you know it’s there but nobody believes it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shearwater Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 People have different values; drivers act differently at traffic lights and guns can't remember what peg number they drew an hour ago so no chance of everyone understanding any complicated instructions Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokersmith Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 18 hours ago, AVB said: And we are still going to destroy the economy by going into lockdown when there appears to be evidence that the local tier approach was working. Where do you expect deaths to be in 4 weeks time? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVB Posted November 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 4 hours ago, Smokersmith said: Where do you expect deaths to be in 4 weeks time? I would say that we will see deaths about 15% over the 5 year average. So the 5 year average for deaths in the month of November is, I believe, 44,000 so I would expect to see 50,000 deaths an increase of 6,000 or 214/day. However that is all deaths so the ‘with covid’ deaths will be higher and the ‘without covid’ deaths lower. Nobody is dying of flu at the moment! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
team tractor Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 23 minutes ago, AVB said: I would say that we will see deaths about 15% over the 5 year average. So the 5 year average for deaths in the month of November is, I believe, 44,000 so I would expect to see 50,000 deaths an increase of 6,000 or 214/day. However that is all deaths so the ‘with covid’ deaths will be higher and the ‘without covid’ deaths lower. Nobody is dying of flu at the moment! I’m a believer this is really bad as I know several that have lost mates from 30 to 50 years old but I don’t believe the figures . my mates mate died in a truck crash .... covid . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raja Clavata Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 On 02/11/2020 at 17:57, Vince Green said: Its Monday though, you cant trust Monday figures Looks like Tuesdays figure haven't even come through (due to a technical issue apparently). The thing is it became pointless trying to compare the numbers between different countries very early on, now even for the UK the numbers have been chopped and changed so much it's pretty much down to interpretation at best. I was just looking over some stats published previously and then found they had been withdrawn. I have sympathy for the scientists, at least until they start talking about models, because they are clearly unable to say what they really want to say and in some cases seemingly forced to say things they do not actually believe themselves. This is borne out by behind the scenes scathing criticism of some of the stuff being reported by their peers - peers who have had the utmost respective for these fellow scientists previously. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVB Posted November 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 Today’s numbers are out. 12% down on last Tuesday! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WalkedUp Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 The data surrounding CV-19 has been too politicised and bent. It just isn’t credible anymore. You have to look at weekly excess deaths against the average for the last five years, adjusted for population growth. It would be crude but harder to warp. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mice! Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 2 hours ago, AVB said: Today’s numbers are out. 12% down on last Tuesday! Brilliant, great news, they should keep going down as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackbird Posted November 4, 2020 Report Share Posted November 4, 2020 (edited) On 03/11/2020 at 22:23, Mice! said: Brilliant, great news, they should keep going down as well. Don’t waste your time reporting good news most members just like the majority of the UK population are far more interested in doom & gloom. Edited November 4, 2020 by blackbird Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mice! Posted November 5, 2020 Report Share Posted November 5, 2020 The whole point is that the number of cases goes down, I was only surprised the big lockdown didn't coincide with the half term holidays Hope things get back to summer levels then we can enjoy xmas with family and friends. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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