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At last some facts, this is what we have been waiting for


Vince Green
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The more we know about how its being transmitted the more we understand how we can modify our behavour to prevent it. All knowledge is power as they say.

But I have been to the supermarket tonight, I tend to go later when the place is less crowded. Still people not wearing masks, not using hand sanitiser or keeping their distance

Its not rocket science

Edited by Vince Green
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51 minutes ago, Vince Green said:

I tend to go later when the place is less crowded 

If it is cleaned overnight the best time to go is first thing. However the data presented is almost useless. Correlation is not causation. How many people visited the supermarkets and did not get infected? I, for example, go to a supermarket on average 1.3 times per day. Go to a school 4 times per week etc. They are common places to go to regardless. 

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One of the first big 'superspreader' events back in March was the Cheltenham Gold Cup, (fairly) local to me - and we had a big surge of cases in the month/6 weeks afterwards.  They have been racing for TV only whilst restrictions have been in place.  Looks like nothing was learned as they are intending to have the crowds back again at the first race after 2nd December https://www.gloucestershirelive.co.uk/sport/racing/crowds-allowed-back-cheltenham-racecourse-4739478

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5 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

One of the first big 'superspreader' events back in March was the Cheltenham Gold Cup, (fairly) local to me - and we had a big surge of cases in the month/6 weeks afterwards.  They have been racing for TV only whilst restrictions have been in place.  Looks like nothing was learned as they are intending to have the crowds back again at the first race after 2nd December https://www.gloucestershirelive.co.uk/sport/racing/crowds-allowed-back-cheltenham-racecourse-4739478

How many people were at the Gold Cup? I suspect many more than 2,000 which is the max that will be allowed now. 

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12 minutes ago, AVB said:

How many people were at the Gold Cup? I suspect many more than 2,000 which is the max that will be allowed now. 

Yes, it would be a lot more - but they put in a lot of extra stands, bars, catering facilities etc.  I don't know what the permanent facility capacity is.  It will cause a lot of feeling locally as there were a number of local (Cheltenham and area) deaths in the couple of months afterwards.

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1 hour ago, JohnfromUK said:

Yes, it would be a lot more - but they put in a lot of extra stands, bars, catering facilities etc.  I don't know what the permanent facility capacity is.  It will cause a lot of feeling locally as there were a number of local (Cheltenham and area) deaths in the couple of months afterwards.

From what I have read there is no conclusive view as to whether the festival was the cause of covid deaths in the area. Lots of opinions both ways though. Regardless, we have to try to live with the virus and that means not closing everything down. 

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1 minute ago, AVB said:

From what I have read there is no conclusive view as to whether the festival was the cause of covid deaths in the area. Lots of opinions both ways though. Regardless, we have to try to live with the virus and that means not closing everything down. 

I think locally there is a pretty strong view that it was the cause.  A lot of people who do 'casual work' in Gold Cup week in the various hospitality venues in Cheltenham and around got ill - as then did their families.  The first death locally (within a mile or so of me) was someone (not someone I knew, but I know the house) who had attended and started to get ill a few days later.  I think they have been racing since with no 'on course' spectators, but TV coverage - which seems the sensible compromise.  https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/apr/21/experts-inquiry-cheltenham-festival-coronavirus-deaths

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1 hour ago, JohnfromUK said:

One of the first big 'superspreader' events back in March was the Cheltenham Gold Cup, (fairly) local to me - and we had a big surge of cases in the month/6 weeks afterwards.  They have been racing for TV only whilst restrictions have been in place.  Looks like nothing was learned as they are intending to have the crowds back again at the first race after 2nd December https://www.gloucestershirelive.co.uk/sport/racing/crowds-allowed-back-cheltenham-racecourse-4739478

Two of the local farmers here caught it at the Cup event and both died as a result.

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3 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

I think locally there is a pretty strong view that it was the cause.  A lot of people who do 'casual work' in Gold Cup week in the various hospitality venues in Cheltenham and around got ill - as then did their families.  The first death locally (within a mile or so of me) was someone (not someone I knew, but I know the house) who had attended and started to get ill a few days later.  I think they have been racing since with no 'on course' spectators, but TV coverage - which seems the sensible compromise.  https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/apr/21/experts-inquiry-cheltenham-festival-coronavirus-deaths

There are lots of places that have had spikes with no known cause. The same with cancer clusters. Could it have been a cause? Yes but it also might not have. That’s the issue. Until there is proof then it is just opinion. I know a number of people who went who didn’t get Covid let alone die. Did get hangovers though. 

The problem with continuing with draconian lockdown is that many companies won’t survive until the vaccine arrives. 

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Just now, JohnfromUK said:

Which is why I'm somewhat surprised they don't just stay with TV coverage until there is a vaccine in general use (which should be only a few months with a following wind)

Spot on. there is so much conflicting advice. 

I did here that they should have vaccinated over 50's by end of March. It's not so far off now. Looking to push back my shooting trip to SA by a month to May just to allow a little more time to settle stuff out. 

1 minute ago, AVB said:

There are lots of places that have had spikes with no known cause. The same with cancer clusters. Could it have been a cause? Yes but it also might not have. That’s the issue. Until there is proof then it is just opinion. I know a number of people who went who didn’t get Covid let alone die. Did get hangovers though. 

The problem with continuing with draconian lockdown is that many companies won’t survive until the vaccine arrives. 

Your right of course but it certainly looks like the Cheltenham races and the Liverpool Italy game were big drivers.

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On 26/11/2020 at 19:30, oowee said:

 it certainly looks like the Cheltenham races and the Liverpool Italy game were big drivers.

and thousands of people returning from ski trips in Northern Italy and Austria. They think now that was how it first entered the country in any significant numbers 

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The stats are meaningless - everyone has to go to the supermarket frequently to buy food in order to live and so it’s no surprise that lots of people with Covid share that as an experience / feature.

It’s like saying that everyone who got Covid was found to have gone to the toilet / brushed their teeth in the week before, ergo going to the toilet / brushing your teeth makes you catch Covid. 

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5 minutes ago, Mungler said:

The stats are meaningless - everyone has to go to the supermarket frequently to buy food in order to live and so it’s no surprise that lots of people with Covid share that as an experience / feature.

It’s like saying that everyone who got Covid was found to have gone to the toilet / brushed their teeth in the week before, ergo going to the toilet / brushing your teeth makes you catch Covid. 

I didn't have the balls to drop that in here. Glad someone known to have a pretty decent level of intelligence did!

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