Putin announces 'military operation' in Ukraine.

[JohnfromUK]

35 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

remove one of his best bargaining chip from the equation? 

It was a chip played out.  No one was ever likely to trust Russian gas supply continuity again.  Once bitten, twice shy.

[oowee]

1 hour ago, Rewulf said:

Not disputing that, but to remove one of his best bargaining chip from the equation? 

I rather see it as someone removing the chip for him. But that might be a bit too 'conspiracy' for some on here, even though its the most obvious? 

🙂 Ukraine had a submarine but the Ruskys nicked it.

 

[henry d]

5 hours ago, Dave-G said:

I don't get what was bubbling up in the sea if gas wasn't being pumped through them pipes.

The pipeline is huge and filled with gas, it's at the bottom of the Baltic sea. It will bubble until the pipeline fills with water. 

[Mungler]

I didn’t realise it was 3 explosions and all 3 pipes.

If I was Putin I’d bank on Russians doing hardship better than the west and see if I could bankrupt the EU and then fragment it and which is why Putin has been backing any nationalistic party in any country that is committed to exiting the EU.

Dunno who blew the pipes up. I’ll actually wait for the FT’s view. What I do know is that anything coming out of Putin / Kremlin will be a total porky. 

[mchughcb]

You know creating a false flag event after germans stopped Nordstream 2 makes a lot of sense when you haven't even turned it on. 

It's right up there with self  bombing the nuclear power station you control because it's easier to bomb than switch off.

One crazy world. 

 

[Gordon R]

Quote

One crazy world. 

In the World of Darwin Dave, it all makes sense.

[mchughcb]

6 hours ago, JohnfromUK said:

It was a chip played out.  No one was ever likely to trust Russian gas supply continuity again.  Once bitten, twice shy.

Lol, are you talking about the EU or Russia? It's not Russia putting sanctions on their own energy exports. I guess the brinkmanship the EU is being played out now. All of the East don't give a poop. They will always buy.

[JohnfromUK]

4 hours ago, mchughcb said:

All of the East don't give a poop.

The pipelines blown up go to the west, not the east.  Whilst the west might buy Russian gas again, it will never allow the same dependency on Russian supplies again ......... so the "I'll stamp my foot and turn off the gas" card Putin has been playing has gone for good.

[Gordon R]

Quote

The pipelines blown up go to the west, not the east.  Whilst the west might buy Russian gas again, it will never allow the same dependency on Russian supplies again ......... so the "I'll stamp my foot and turn off the gas" card Putin has been playing has gone for good.

A valid point. Short term hardship will force the EU and Uk to abandon the green nonsense and start to use the available resources.

[serrac]

Obviously just another conspiracy theory, but...

 

[JohnfromUK]

1 minute ago, serrac said:

Obviously just another conspiracy theory, but...

Nordstream 2 has never actually been used - it was due to start in spring 2022, but that never happened as Russia invaded Ukraine before it actually started.  I think it was acknowledged that it would be unlikely to ever happen even before the explosion this week because Europe is very unlikely to ever get very much gas from Russia again - and so Nordstream 2 was nothing more than surplus capacity. 

Europe has learned a sharp lesson that having multiple diverse sources of essentials such as energy MUST be a feature of a secure future.  It will cost more - but security always comes at a price - and it is one Europe will be much more willing to pay after this shock.

[serrac]

7 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

Europe has learned a sharp lesson that having multiple diverse sources of essentials such as energy MUST be a feature of a secure future.  It will cost more - but security always comes at a price - and it is one Europe will be much more willing to pay after this shock.

I agree with you on the matter of energy independence, but your response didn't address the possibility of the US being a/the protagonist in the sabotage.

Europe clearly doesn't have alternative energy sources in place at present or else the Ukraine situation wouldn't have created the energy crisis we are currently experiencing.  Like it or not, until we secure alternative capacity we will be dependent on Russian energy supplies, so their loss is likely to cause untold hardship especially if we blindly continue down the path of wind, solar and unicorn farts.

[JohnfromUK]

1 minute ago, serrac said:

but your response didn't address the possibility of the US being a/the protagonist in the sabotage.

It's not realistic that the US did this.  Nordstream 2 was not going to be used in any foreseeable plan - so why blow it up?

[Stonepark]

The only people who would blow up the pipeline were those who had no control over it. Russia had control of the valves and gas being pumped in and once Ukraine was over, would look to use it to supply gas to Germany again and therefore has no motive.

 

This was done in NATO controlled waters and the country which was against supplying Russian gas to Germany and who has the requisite resources to carry out such an attack in the Baltic, comes down to 1 name.... USA.

 

[JohnfromUK]

4 minutes ago, Stonepark said:

comes down to 1 name.... USA.

Rubbish,  it's not realistic that the US did this.  The pipelines were not being used and very unlikely to have been used in any near future. 

IF the USA wanted to blow them up - they could have done if there was a reasonable possibility of them returning to use.  That is not the case.

[Dave-G]

I guess Ukraine would gain - Russia could eventually divert the gas that flows through it to the N2 pipe instead.

[mchughcb]

4 hours ago, JohnfromUK said:

The pipelines blown up go to the west, not the east.  Whilst the west might buy Russian gas again, it will never allow the same dependency on Russian supplies again ......... so the "I'll stamp my foot and turn off the gas" card Putin has been playing has gone for good.

I think certain EU countries like Hungary will continue to buy. The UK can do whatever it likes. 

There is a huge market into China and the belt road initiative may link up very nicely with it. 

[Stonepark]

10 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

Rubbish,  it's not realistic that the US did this.  The pipelines were not being used and very unlikely to have been used in any near future. 

IF the USA wanted to blow them up - they could have done if there was a reasonable possibility of them returning to use.  That is not the case.

30t of explosive to give a 2.9 Richter scale is not placed by a ship passing by and dropping off a 750kg sea mine or torpedo as guessed at by the MSM, these pipelines are laid in an excavated trench which is then covered over by sea moving silt back on top. Clearing the silt and placing the charges took at least 12 hours if not 24 hours to carry out. It would immediately be clear on Denmark radar who was to blame, and the fact they are not jumping up and down screaming the "Russkies" did it and here is the proof says everything.

 

This was carried out under NATO and who runs NATO? Or are you saying the UK carried this out (we are the only other navy with capacity to undertake this) but we would still not do it without the Yanks okaying it...... So back to square 1.

 

All Russia had to do was quietly flood it from their end if they wanted it out of commission permanently, no need for fireworks or loss of gas in the pipeline......

[mchughcb]

1 hour ago, serrac said:

Obviously just another conspiracy theory, but...

 

Ole cornpop off script again. Seemed pretty smug that he was going to wipe a strategic asset off the map didn't he.

[JohnfromUK]

1 minute ago, mchughcb said:

The UK can do whatever it likes.

Before the current Ukraine invasion, the UK imported 4% of it's gas from Russia, 9% of it's oil and 27% of it's coal.  Source

https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9523/CBP-9523.pdf

That can all be replaced from elsewhere, but of course at the current world prices

[mchughcb]

2 minutes ago, Stonepark said:

30t of explosive to give a 2.9 Richter scale is not placed by a ship passing by and dropping off a 750kg sea mine or torpedo as guessed at by the MSM, these pipelines are laid in an excavated trench which is then covered over by sea moving silt back on top. Clearing the silt and placing the charges took at least 12 hours if not 24 hours to carry out. It would immediately be clear on Denmark radar who was to blame, and the fact they are not jumping up and down screaming the "Russkies" did it and here is the proof says everything.

 

This was carried out under NATO and who runs NATO? Or are you saying the UK carried this out (we are the only other navy with capacity to undertake this) but we would still not do it without the Yanks okaying it...... So back to square 1.

 

All Russia had to do was quietly flood it from their end if they wanted it out of commission permanently, no need for fireworks or loss of gas in the pipeline......

Seems logical to me.

[JohnfromUK]

3 minutes ago, Stonepark said:

All Russia had to do was quietly flood it from their end if they wanted it out of commission permanently, no need for fireworks or loss of gas in the pipeline......

As you have said - Russia already has control - by simply 'turning a tap'.  This is not about control of gas.  It was turned off already - and both Russia and Germany have taps at respective ends.  This was about Russia demonstrating it's capability to blow up undersea pipes, cables and infrastructure.    It did it by blowing up pipes on which it's hand was already played out on stopping gas.

[mchughcb]

2 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

Before the current Ukraine invasion, the UK imported 4% of it's gas from Russia, 9% of it's oil and 27% of it's coal.  Source

https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9523/CBP-9523.pdf

That can all be replaced from elsewhere, but of course at the current world prices

Just as well. They have less skin in the game then they can pay more for the alternatives.

1 minute ago, JohnfromUK said:

As you have said - Russia already has control - by simply 'turning a tap'.  This is not about control of gas.  It was turned off already - and both Russia and Germany have taps at respective ends.  This was about Russia demonstrating it's capability to blow up undersea pipes, cables and infrastructure.    It did it by blowing up pipes on which it's hand was already played out on stopping gas.

Couldn't they blow up something useful that didn't belong to them?

[serrac]

This is kind of convenient too

https://thefrontierpost.com/us-european-military-exercises-start/

[Stonepark]

12 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

As you have said - Russia already has control - by simply 'turning a tap'.  This is not about control of gas.  It was turned off already - and both Russia and Germany have taps at respective ends.  This was about Russia demonstrating it's capability to blow up undersea pipes, cables and infrastructure.    It did it by blowing up pipes on which it's hand was already played out on stopping gas.

Everyone knows that Russia has the capacity to blow up pipelines, it is one of the defined Spetznaz mission profiles, no need to demonstrate it, that is just MSM spin.

Germany has now been forced down a route not of it's own choosing as there is now no way to lift the sanctions mid winter and turn the pipelines back on......