Coronavirus (Covid-19) Is this it?

[ditchman]

1 hour ago, Jaymo said:

Me thinks u know the answer..... What’s a Plane again? 

well at least you can get the DIY in eh ....

[lancer425]

I am finding the cases deaths and recovered figures a bit confusing, i know ours look lower . But is this just that we are earlier in the cycle if you understand me,.?

 Italy figures look terrible are we fairing better than them at this stage right now, or worse, we looked worryingly similar last weekend.

[Mice!]

3 minutes ago, lancer425 said:

I am finding the cases deaths and recovered figures a bit confusing, i know ours look lower . But is this just that we are earlier in the cycle if you understand me,.?

 Italy figures look terrible are we fairing better than them at this stage right now, or worse, we looked worryingly similar last weekend.

Were supposed to be 2 or 3 weeks behind Italy 

[lancer425]

Thats how i understood it, but at the moment are we doing same better or worse than Italy at our current stage. Just trying to get an idea how many might die.

[Mice!]

18 minutes ago, lancer425 said:

Thats how i understood it, but at the moment are we doing same better or worse than Italy at our current stage. Just trying to get an idea how many might die.

No idea, the way the media is talking it could be ten of thousands,  but I'm hoping they are very wrong.

Looking at Italy and Spain the whole of Europe has to be worried. 

[Dave-G]

41 minutes ago, Mice! said:

No idea, the way the media is talking it could be ten of thousands,  but I'm hoping they are very wrong.

Looking at Italy and Spain the whole of Europe has to be worried. 

Thanks to skiing, climate and football crowds - not that I'm blaming them. Just thinking how cheaply we can travel to leisure events these days.

[Retsdon]

5 hours ago, lancer425 said:

Thats how i understood it, but at the moment are we doing same better or worse than Italy at our current stage. Just trying to get an idea how many might die.

You can do a comparison by looking at the stats on 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Both the UK and Italy have their own line graphs of cases/dates and if you find a same or very similar number on each chart and then come forward a week or two weeks, you'll get an answer to your question. From what I can see, the  case numbers follow pretty much the exact same trajectory, but Italy's death rate starts out higher and stays higher.

 

 

Edited March 28, 2020 by Retsdon

[Rewulf]

9 hours ago, Retsdon said:

the UK and Italy have their own line graphs of cases/dates and if you find a same or very similar number on each chart and then come forward a week or two weeks, you'll get an answer to your question. From what I can see, the  case numbers follow pretty much the exact same trajectory, but Italy's death rate starts out higher and stays higher.

The worldometer site is a good source. 

However, have you noticed how the recovery rate numbers haven't changed for weeks? Other countries have, while the UK has bee static at only 135 recovered for 2 weeks now. 

Does no one recover in the UK? 

It keeps the death recovery ratio artificially high. 

Recent estimates on total deaths going forward are being massively reduced from 100s of 1000s to low 10s of 1000, with some estimates never getting into 5 figure number territory (for the UK}) 

Which makes the whole situation {mercifully} a bit of an anticlimax. 

Other theories abound that the virus has been around much longer than thought, and possibly half the population have had it or have it already. 

Iceland has tested more per capita than any other country, and of over half of positive tests recorded NO symptoms. 

Edited March 28, 2020 by Rewulf

[Mice!]

59 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

The worldometer site is a good source. 

However, have you noticed how the recovery rate numbers haven't changed for weeks? Other countries have, while the UK has bee static at only 135 recovered for 2 weeks now. 

Does no one recover in the UK? 

It keeps the death recovery ratio artificially high. 

Recent estimates on total deaths going forward are being massively reduced from 100s of 1000s to low 10s of 1000, with some estimates never getting into 5 figure number territory (for the UK}) 

Which makes the whole situation {mercifully} a bit of an anticlimax. 

Other theories abound that the virus has been around much longer than thought, and possibly half the population have had it or have it already. 

Iceland has tested more per capita than any other country, and of over half of positive tests recorded NO symptoms. 

That would be wonderful news, but if there was any sort of official news like that put out everyone would relax and ignore the lockdown. 

A few weeks at home is worth  it.

[Rewulf]

7 minutes ago, Mice! said:

That would be wonderful news, but if there was any sort of official news like that put out everyone would relax and ignore the lockdown. 

A few weeks at home is worth  it.

Theres mumblings about over exaggerated figure been circulating for the last week, nothing will become official until they can figure out the damage limitation on the error.

I think anyone with a modicum of sense can see we are not going to lose half a million UK citizens, the question is , when the final figures are in, the butchers bill counted, and the death toll is no more than seasonal flu, whose head is going to roll for calling a nationwide lock down that wrecked the economy ?

The fact that most of the civilised world did the same wont be a good enough excuse.

[Mice!]

58 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

Theres mumblings about over exaggerated figure been circulating for the last week, nothing will become official until they can figure out the damage limitation on the error.

I think anyone with a modicum of sense can see we are not going to lose half a million UK citizens, the question is , when the final figures are in, the butchers bill counted, and the death toll is no more than seasonal flu, whose head is going to roll for calling a nationwide lock down that wrecked the economy ?

The fact that most of the civilised world did the same wont be a good enough excuse.

That's it though isn't it, the whole planet has gone into lockdown, I'm not expecting anything like the butchers bill we keep hearing about,  but if the government hadn't shut us down for a while and things had really escalated then heads would really roll, if it's not as bad as predicted then the measures worked?

The relatively low number of deaths in China compared to their population seems out, was it the lockdown? Same in Japan, low number of cases and deaths.

USA looks like its going to be massive,  a figure yesterday said 3 million out of work already.

But this in Canada shows a drop in cases possibly thanks to the lockdown 

[Rewulf]

12 minutes ago, Mice! said:

But this in Canada shows a drop in cases possibly thanks to the lockdown 

Im sure the drop in cases will be attributed to the lock down, here , there and everywhere.
But we are assuming rather a lot there, maybe the vast majority dont have symptoms , or are very light .
I had a really bad chest infection, cough and fever, the likes of which Ive never known,in january, as did many others, my lungs still arent right now, was it CV19 ?

Like I say , until more are tested, there are many assumptions about transmission and lethality.
If its HALF as bad as made out to be , every country in the world is going to have to locked down EVERY year.
My suspicion is the whole thing is overblown, and in the next few weeks , this will become apparent.

 

[JohnfromUK]

1 hour ago, Rewulf said:

The fact that most of the civilised world did the same wont be a good enough excuse.

It isn't only that.

I think that "most of the civilised world did the same" - and clear evidence that 'lockdown' worked in a number of places (notably Wuhan/China)  and I suspect that in the final analysis it will be found that 'lockdown' reduced cases (with a lag of 1-2 weeks to take effect) everywhere it was effective.

In addition, with most of the civilised world doing the same - economic damage was inevitable whatever we did.  A big casualty count also does immense political damage.

My guess is that in the final analysis - the UK will have been found to have broadly done the 'right thing', but started a little late (as did most others).

6 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

If its HALF as bad as made out to be , every country in the world is going to have to locked down EVERY year.

That is where a vaccine is so important .......

[Rewulf]

43 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

I think that "most of the civilised world did the same" - and clear evidence that 'lockdown' worked in a number of places (notably Wuhan/China)  and I suspect that in the final analysis it will be found that 'lockdown' reduced cases (with a lag of 1-2 weeks to take effect) everywhere it was effective.

Its funny, and certainly not a personal dig at you, but many at first doubted the sincerity of the Chinese casualty rate, many still do....But any lockdown effect in the western world remains to be seen.
But that leads us to....

 

46 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

In addition, with most of the civilised world doing the same - economic damage was inevitable whatever we did.  A big casualty count also does immense political damage.

What is a big casualty count ?
We certainly arent talking the sort of figures that were bandied around at the beginning , wherever the real beginning was, China figures were initially predicted at a million +.
Did lockdown prevent those deaths for what is in effect , a disease with no cure ?
Which leads us to.....

 

49 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

That is where a vaccine is so important .......

A vaccine is a preventative measure, for a horse that has already left the stable, and is 6 months away, at least.
Its fair to assume that , unless we lock down for another 6 months, THEN vaccinate the entire population, 80 - 90 % of the population are going to be having their own personal relationship with CV 19.
And thats when those TRUE lethality rates matter, what does that mean in lives lost given figures of anywhere near 1- 2 % bandied about ?
A figure of 0.03 (similar to flu) and then theres the issue of whether that becomes a national emergency or not ?

Then theres always next years mutated strain to contend with...
People die of illness every day, unless the big figures start rolling in , we are talking global over reaction here.

[TIGHTCHOKE]

Indeed, 250000 was the initial expected count and that dropped to 20000 earlier in the week.

[Rewulf]

6 minutes ago, TIGHTCHOKE said:

Indeed, 250000 was the initial expected count and that dropped to 20000 earlier in the week.

Some predicting less than 6000 now.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1261009/UK-coronavirus-latest-death-toll-lower-covid-19-update-Britain-china-expert

[JohnfromUK]

15 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

Its funny, and certainly not a personal dig at you, but many at first doubted the sincerity of the Chinese casualty rate, many still do...

I may well fall into that category ........ but I do think they have dramatically reduced it from whatever it was.

 

15 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

What is a big casualty count ?

Really - it is what the public perceive a big casualty count - and to an extent it will be measured against other countries (mainly our European neighbours).  If we are a lot worse in the final count - that will be politically hard to 'brush over' - however - if we are towards the lower end of our comparable countries - then you can bet the politicians will be basking in any glory they can find.  If you require a figure, my personal feeling is that getting above say 30,000 (UK) is concerning because it is exceeding the average annual flu toll (roughly 10 to 15 thousand annually) by a sizeable margin and exceeding the recent 'worst year' flu toll (2014/5 was estimated at 28,000).

 

15 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

A vaccine is a preventative measure, for a horse that has already left the stable, and is 6 months away, at least.

I meant the vaccine being so important for future years in context of your mention of repeating every year.  Flu repeats every year, but a combination of natural immunity and vaccine means that (most years) it isn't a high profile matter.

Edited March 28, 2020 by JohnfromUK

[TIGHTCHOKE]

Good.

[AVB]

8 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

Its funny, and certainly not a personal dig at you, but many at first doubted the sincerity of the Chinese casualty rate, many still do....But any lockdown effect in the western world remains to be seen.
But that leads us to....

 

What is a big casualty count ?
We certainly arent talking the sort of figures that were bandied around at the beginning , wherever the real beginning was, China figures were initially predicted at a million +.
Did lockdown prevent those deaths for what is in effect , a disease with no cure ?
Which leads us to.....

 

A vaccine is a preventative measure, for a horse that has already left the stable, and is 6 months away, at least.
Its fair to assume that , unless we lock down for another 6 months, THEN vaccinate the entire population, 80 - 90 % of the population are going to be having their own personal relationship with CV 19.
And thats when those TRUE lethality rates matter, what does that mean in lives lost given figures of anywhere near 1- 2 % bandied about ?
A figure of 0.03 (similar to flu) and then theres the issue of whether that becomes a national emergency or not ?

Then theres always next years mutated strain to contend with...
People die of illness every day, unless the big figures start rolling in , we are talking global over reaction here.

I agree and have said before there is a danger that the cure kills more (through recession) than the virus itself.  

Clearly there is a balance to be struck. Putting everybody in total lockdown to save one life is ridiculous and on the other end of the scale is doing nothing and X additional people dying. However I have no idea what X is nor where you strike a balance. It’s above my pay grade. 

[Rewulf]

1 minute ago, JohnfromUK said:

 

 

Really - it is what the public perceive a big casualty count - and to an extent it will be measured against other countries (mainly our European neighbours).  If we are a lot worse in the final count - that will be politically hard to 'brush over' - however - if we are towards the lower end of our comparable countries - then you can bet the politicians will be basking in any glory they can find.  If you require a figure, my personal feeling is that getting above say 30,000 (UK) is concerning because it is exceeding the average annual flu toll (roughly 10 to 15 thousand annually) by a sizeable margin and exceeding the recent 'worst year' flu toll (2013/4 was estimated at 28,000).

 

I meant the vaccine being so important for future years in context of your mention of repeating every year.  Flu repeats every year, but a combination of natural immunity and vaccine means that (most years) it isn't a high profile matter.

Agreed on all points 

[AVB]

1 minute ago, Rewulf said:

Some predicting less than 6000 now.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1261009/UK-coronavirus-latest-death-toll-lower-covid-19-update-Britain-china-expert

I remember the CMO saying that if it was 20,000 then he would consider us lucky. However he couldn’t explain how many of the 20,000 would have died anyway I.e they died with Coronavirus rather than of it. 

[JohnfromUK]

11 minutes ago, AVB said:

However he couldn’t explain how many of the 20,000 would have died anyway I.e they died with Coronavirus rather than of it. 

And that is very valid - we are told that many of those who have succumbed were elderly and/or had underlying health conditions - but of course no one can say with certainty whether without Covid they would have lasted weeks, months, years, decades even. 

Similarly - we hear that some relatively young 'fit and well' have died - but we don't actually know if they had 'as yet unidentified' issues which even they were unaware of - I don't believe they are doing post mortems on victims (but might be wrong on that).

There also seems to be a huge difference in severity from one person to another.  One 'theory' I read was that those exposed to a very light dose of the virus (maybe by passing contact) may get off with a mild case because their immune systems get a head start as the virus multiplies ........ whereas those who get a much greater dose (maybe several exposures, or prolonged exposure with someone shedding the virus) may get their immune system 'overwhelmed' before it can get to work fully - and so have a severe case - but it is just a theory.

There is also a big difference between different peoples immune systems - we will all have come across those who get a bad dose of every cold doing the rounds - and others who are very seldom much affected more than a runny nose.

Edited March 28, 2020 by JohnfromUK

[TIGHTCHOKE]

And now can either of you explain the massive number of deaths in Italy and the USA?

[JohnfromUK]

18 minutes ago, TIGHTCHOKE said:

And now can either of you explain the massive number of deaths in Italy and the USA?

I can only say that I have read that Italy has a high population of the elderly.  It tends to have quite high 'normal flu' losses as well.

The USA - I have no idea, but if I was to guess it would be that the virus is much more widespread than the number of confirmed cases suggests.  The US also has a lot of 'unhealthy' people (overweight, diabetic, blood pressure etc.) and sometimes these conditions are not treated (especially in the less well off as there is not a true equivalent of our NHS and private care and medication is VERY expensive)

[Retsdon]

Just found this......

The following is from Irene Ken physician, whose daughter is an Asst. Prof in infectious diseases at Johns Hopkins University, quite informative.

* The virus is not a living organism, but a protein molecule (DNA) covered by a protective layer of lipid (fat), which, when absorbed by the cells of the ocular, nasal or buccal mucosa, changes their genetic code. (mutation) and convert them into aggressor and multiplier cells.

* Since the virus is not a living organism but a protein molecule, it is not killed, but decays on its own. The disintegration time depends on the temperature, humidity and type of material where it lies.

* The virus is very fragile; the only thing that protects it is a thin outer layer of fat. That is why any soap or detergent is the best remedy, because the foam CUTS the FAT (that is why you have to rub so much: for 20 seconds or more, to make a lot of foam).

By dissolving the fat layer, the protein molecule disperses and breaks down on its own.

* HEAT melts fat; this is why it is so good to use water above 77 degrees Fahrenheit for washing hands, clothes and everything. In addition, hot water makes more foam and that makes it even more useful.

* Alcohol or any mixture with alcohol over 65% DISSOLVES ANY FAT, especially the external lipid layer of the virus.

* Any mix with 1 part bleach and 5 parts water directly dissolves the protein, breaks it down from the inside.

* Oxygenated water helps long after soap, alcohol and chlorine, because peroxide dissolves the virus protein, but you have to use it pure and it hurts your skin.

* NO BACTERICIDE OR ANTIBIOTIC SERVES. The virus is not a living organism like bacteria; antibodies cannot kill what is not alive.

* NEVER shake used or unused clothing, sheets or cloth. While it is glued to a porous surface, it is very inert and disintegrates only
-between 3 hours (fabric and porous),
-4 hours (copper and wood)
-24 hours (cardboard),
- 42 hours (metal) and
-72 hours (plastic).

But if you shake it or use a feather duster, the virus molecules float in the air for up to 3 hours, and can lodge in your nose.

* The virus molecules remain very stable in external cold, or artificial as air conditioners in houses and cars.

They also need moisture to stay stable, and especially darkness. Therefore, dehumidified, dry, warm and bright environments will degrade it faster.

* UV LIGHT on any object that may contain it breaks down the virus protein. For example, to disinfect and reuse a mask is perfect. Be careful, it also breaks down collagen (which is protein) in the skin.

* The virus CANNOT go through healthy skin.

* Vinegar is NOT useful because it does not break down the protective layer of fat.

* NO SPIRITS, NOR VODKA, serve. The strongest vodka is 40% alcohol, and you need 65%.

* LISTERINE IF IT SERVES! It is 65% alcohol.

* The more confined the space, the more concentration of the virus there can be. The more open or naturally ventilated, the less.

* You have to wash your hands before and after touching mucosa, food, locks, knobs, switches, remote control, cell phone, watches, computers, desks, TV, etc. And when using the bathroom.

* You have to Moisturize dry hands from so much washing them, because the molecules can hide in the micro cracks. The thicker the moisturizer, the better.

* Also keep your NAILS SHORT so that the virus does not hide there.

-JOHNS HOPKINS HOSPITAL