Long term effects of Coronavirus

[clangerman]

3 minutes ago, Mungler said:

 

This was in response to Henry suggesting that young people were going to die in the way and quantities as those in WW2, and they just aren’t.

I still don’t see why the rights and liberties of the young are trumped by the over 75’s - the age group who are best suited to lockdown - no job, no career, no mortgage, no family commitments.

Why isolate everyone and not just the over 75’s? The answer is a mix of core Tory Daily Mail reading voters and ‘misery enjoys company’.

 

don’t count your chickens a new strain may yet start dropping the young all have to isolate courtesy of the selfish and stupid who still knock on the door to get told do one or words to that effect 

[Scully]

On 20/01/2021 at 09:26, AVB said:

Why is that? Why have the media and the Government become so fixated with doom and gloom? I am trying to remember what ‘normal’ looked like but was it always like this? 

I can’t figure it out either, unless it’s negative reporting in an attempt to terrify people into staying at home. 🤷‍♂️
I was absolutely disgusted with the hushed emotive voice over on the news the other night when it started with footage of a stack of bodies in a morgue fridge while they trollied another in there, followed up by an aerial shot of a gravedigger hand digging a plot. The morgue shots were on again the other night, alongside an interview of senior staff to the point of bringing her to tears, and of course the camera stayed with her as she walked off because it’s exactly the response they were after.
Then the old boy crying whilst reading out a letter from his grandkids to his dead wife. Why? 
The graveyard shots were on again tonight! Absolutely despicable reporting in my opinion. 
I’m assuming that the next time we decide to send our military to fight over some sand, there’ll be footage of the carnage our troops are experiencing and the body bags being unloaded, alongside interviews and footage of the bereaved. To shove a mic’ and a camera in the face of someone who is in the throes of grief is simply gutterpress journalism and not something I would expect from the BBC. Jeremy Kyle would be proud. 
Im not saying events should be airbrushed out as they were historically ( until very recently actually ) but it’s all very intrusive and disrespectful. 
 

[Mungler]

5 minutes ago, Scully said:

I can’t figure it out either, unless it’s negative reporting in an attempt to terrify people into staying at home. 🤷‍♂️
I was absolutely disgusted with the hushed emotive voice over on the news the other night when it started with footage of a stack of bodies in a morgue fridge while they trollied another in there, followed up by an aerial shot of a gravedigger hand digging a plot. The morgue shots were on again the other night, alongside an interview of senior staff to the point of bringing her to tears, and of course the camera stayed with her as she walked off because it’s exactly the response they were after.
Then the old boy crying whilst reading out a letter from his grandkids to his dead wife. Why? 
The graveyard shots were on again tonight! Absolutely despicable reporting in my opinion. 
I’m assuming that the next time we decide to send our military to fight over some sand, there’ll be footage of the carnage our troops are experiencing and the body bags being unloaded, alongside interviews and footage of the bereaved. To shove a mic’ and a camera in the face of someone who is in the throes of grief is simply gutterpress journalism and not something I would expect from the BBC. Jeremy Kyle would be proud. 
Im not saying events should be airbrushed out as they were historically ( until very recently actually ) but it’s all very intrusive and disrespectful. 
 

Agree 100%

[AVB]

28 minutes ago, Scully said:

I can’t figure it out either, unless it’s negative reporting in an attempt to terrify people into staying at home. 🤷‍♂️
I was absolutely disgusted with the hushed emotive voice over on the news the other night when it started with footage of a stack of bodies in a morgue fridge while they trollied another in there, followed up by an aerial shot of a gravedigger hand digging a plot. The morgue shots were on again the other night, alongside an interview of senior staff to the point of bringing her to tears, and of course the camera stayed with her as she walked off because it’s exactly the response they were after.
Then the old boy crying whilst reading out a letter from his grandkids to his dead wife. Why? 
The graveyard shots were on again tonight! Absolutely despicable reporting in my opinion. 
I’m assuming that the next time we decide to send our military to fight over some sand, there’ll be footage of the carnage our troops are experiencing and the body bags being unloaded, alongside interviews and footage of the bereaved. To shove a mic’ and a camera in the face of someone who is in the throes of grief is simply gutterpress journalism and not something I would expect from the BBC. Jeremy Kyle would be proud. 
Im not saying events should be airbrushed out as they were historically ( until very recently actually ) but it’s all very intrusive and disrespectful. 
 

Jeremy Vine was at it today saying that if you work back from yesterdays reported deaths then every one of those caught it on Christmas Day and hence it was all caused by those terrible people mixing. Conveniently forgetting of course that 1) the time between catching it and death will vary and 2) some of the deaths reported each day are people who actually died months ago but the reporting has only just caught up. 

[AVB]

35 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

As far as I'm aware the vaccine resistance of the South African strain is far from definitive at this stage but obviously the press latch onto the negativity around the early lab findings.

My 70 something neighbour was "giving it large" about the youngsters the other day, when I challenged him what he'd have been like at that age he conceded "a nightmare" and we changed subject.

Tony Tucker also used to work the door at Hollywoods, I can honestly say that fortunately I've met few more unsavoury people than him, he was a menace to everyone. That said he remains revered by some around these parts to this day. One of the guys who got banged up for the murders used to own a boat in Bradwell which he used to pick up drug drops from the air into the Blackwater - the boat was sold and we used to go out with the new owners fishing for roker and cod. I think he's due parole soon.

totally with you on this.

Bradwell? I used to shoot there. Small shoot running from behind the power station to the Christian retreat ‘Othona’. Some rough blokes there but quite a laugh. 

I thought Hollywood came after Raquel’s. But I could be confused. I was off my head most of the time. 

I knew of Tucker/Tate/Rolfe. Who from the area didn’t.  I knew Patrick O’Mahoney better but he was full of it. Was never sure whether there was any truth in what he spouted. 

I used to shuttle between Tots in Southend, Dukes in Chelmsford, Raquel’s in Basildon and The Charleston in Forest Gate.  

 

[Mungler]

Hollywood’s was Romford. As was Secrets.

Don’t forget Reds in Chelmsford.

All long long gone now.

[Raja Clavata]

9 minutes ago, AVB said:

Bradwell? I used to shoot there. Small shoot running from behind the power station to the Christian retreat ‘Othona’. Some rough blokes there but quite a laugh. 

I thought Hollywood came after Raquel’s. But I could be confused. I was off my head most of the time. 

I knew of Tucker/Tate/Rolfe. Who from the area didn’t.  I knew Patrick O’Mahoney better but he was full of it. Was never sure whether there was any truth in what he spouted. 

I used to shuttle between Tots in Southend, Dukes in Chelmsford, Raquel’s in Basildon and The Charleston in Forest Gate.  

 

Spent much of my early youth around Bradwell, St Lawrence Bay and The Stone - grandparents had a caravan there. Done some bass fishing off the Dengie a few years ago by the Othona Institute (there's an old church by the edge of the flats that always intrigued me).

Hollywoods, at least my time there, was late 80's early 90's. I did Dukes once with someone else's ID, Tots a few times and Raquels once. I was around for the initial acid / smiley gigs but never partook in the drugs - for the big white waltham rave (we made it onto the front page of the Sun IIRC) - I was the designated driver.

We used to frequent the Ilford Palais and a gaff down the road in Seven Kings (name escapes me, Kings, maybe) then it switched to the Camden Palace - I went back to going fishing and a bit later studying engineering.

Did my best to steer clear of as many wannabe and real life gangsters as possible but it was quite a challenge to do so around these parts in those times.

Anyway, we digress...

[AVB]

26 minutes ago, Mungler said:

Hollywood’s was Romford. As was Secrets.

Don’t forget Reds in Chelmsford.

All long long gone now.

And Room at the Top Ilford. I remember getting a kicking from the bouncers there. They dashed my head on every step as they dragged me down the stairs. 
 

I’m reminiscing now. Wasn’t there also a club at the Oaklands hotel in Chelmsford (between the Army & Navy and the Marconi’s roundabouts)? It all seems sooooo long ago. The sad thing is that it was. 

Edited January 21, 2021 by AVB

[Raja Clavata]

What about Faces?

[AVB]

1 minute ago, Raja Clavata said:

What about Faces?

Gants Hill? Too TOWE nowadays I am told. Not sure it was around in my day. 

[Raja Clavata]

4 minutes ago, AVB said:

And Room at the Top Ilford. I remember getting a kicking from the bouncers there. They dashed my head on every step as they dragged me down the stairs. 
 

My cousin, a lifelong Arsenal fan, got beaten up by a group who were accompanied by Tony Adams outside Room at the Top. Nearly ruptured one of his testicles. Let's face it if Adams hadn't been a footballer he'd have most likely been a leading figure in the ICF.

Let's not even get started with the Rush Green Tavern.

Just now, AVB said:

Gants Hill? Too TOWE nowadays I am told. Not sure it was around in my day. 

There was a club there but not so popular.

[Mungler]

My business partner got an ashtray round his head at Room at the Top.

I’d never go there because it was ‘the’ place to get an ashtray wrapped round your head.

[Jim Neal]

12 hours ago, henry d said:

Here is a bit of hope for you then. Apparently the virus needs to get rid of the protein spikes or make them smaller for the vaccine to be less effective.

I thought it was worth dragging a little bit of that article into here.  This is what they have to say, which I found interesting:

Quote

Do the current vaccines work against the Brazilian, English, and South African variants?

The three main vaccines—Pfizer BioNTech, Moderna, and Oxford AstraZeneca—all target the spike protein of the virus, where these variants have mutations. Researchers are still fairly confident, however, that the vaccines will work against them—although they are not sure whether protection could be reduced—because the spike protein is so large that many mutations would be needed to completely escape. Studies are now underway to test whether the vaccines are effective against these new variants.

Could the virus still mutate to escape the vaccines?

In an interview with The BMJ,5 Andrew Pollard, who leads the Oxford vaccine clinical trials, said the crucial period will be when lots of people are vaccinated, as this will put the virus under a lot of pressure. “When that happens some viruses just can’t compete against that immunity. Will it mutate instead? With this coronavirus we don’t know the answer to that question yet, and that’s why surveillance is going to be critical in the year ahead to make sure that we’re not in a position where, at the point of population immunity, the virus escapes. And if it does, we need to know that, so that we can redesign the vaccines,” Pollard said. He added that the Pfizer, Moderna, and Oxford vaccines are “relatively straightforward to redesign for a new variant.”

 

Oh, and...

Club Zeus on a Monday night was where it was happening in Chelmsford in the mid-90s!  Or at least it was if you were a poor student like me Cheap lager, flaming sambucas and probably a bit of a fight with the locals round the back of the kebab shop.  Them were the days!

 

Edited January 21, 2021 by Jim Neal

[islandgun]

2 hours ago, Raja Clavata said:

Spent much of my early youth around Bradwell, St Lawrence Bay and The Stone - grandparents had a caravan there. Done some bass fishing off the Dengie a few years ago by the Othona Institute (there's an old church by the edge of the flats that always intrigued me).

Hollywoods, at least my time there, was late 80's early 90's. I did Dukes once with someone else's ID, Tots a few times and Raquels once. I was around for the initial acid / smiley gigs but never partook in the drugs - for the big white waltham rave (we made it onto the front page of the Sun IIRC) - I was the designated driver.

We used to frequent the Ilford Palais and a gaff down the road in Seven Kings (name escapes me, Kings, maybe) then it switched to the Camden Palace - I went back to going fishing and a bit later studying engineering.

Did my best to steer clear of as many wannabe and real life gangsters as possible but it was quite a challenge to do so around these parts in those times.

Anyway, we digress...

Ha Ha some old names there from my youf, I was born in Danbury and grew up in and around Chelmsford, left when i was 20 but i do remember the Lion and Lamb [animals] and the Corn Exchange [the Who, Hendrix] or Tindal street where Leech's the gun shop was and a row of pubs including the Dolphin and attic disco. [ Attic disco was 50 odd years ago..😲] I had a boat in  Steeple creek and Bradwell.. Lived later in Tollesbury  but thats another story..😃 

[Mice!]

3 hours ago, Mungler said:

Yeah yeah yeah we’ve done that one to death.

This was in response to Henry suggesting that young people were going to die in the way and quantities as those in WW2, and they just aren’t.

I still don’t see why the rights and liberties of the young are trumped by the over 75’s - the age group who are best suited to lockdown - no job, no career, no mortgage, no family commitments.

Why isolate everyone and not just the over 75’s? The answer is a mix of core Tory Daily Mail reading voters and ‘misery enjoys company’.

 

I don't see young people dying in the numbers they did during world war two, but I understand why everyone is in lockdown. 

Let's say government decides that the under 30s aren't really being affected by the virus so they say they can carry on while everyone else stays home, for one many others would go nuts, if they can go out then why not us, imagine the police trying to manage it??

Two, they might not be badly affected but would you be happy going to work Monday knowing all the youngsters had been out all weekend possibly spreading the virus while being asymptomatic.

Three, how many say under 25s still live at home with their parents? It's not possible for the the under 30s not to come into contact with older people, shops, public transport, work.

People keep saying it's only the over 75s 80s 85s that are dying so it should just be them that isolate,  while that's probably a good idea I'd like to see some charts or graphs from government telling us the age ranges of the people who are in hospital with Covid.

People seem to be dismissing the daily death figures, we know people die all the time but is it normally in these numbers?

Anyone know much about the Spanish flu?

I've had a quick look and the numbers that died all around the world are unbelievable and it wasn't just the old folk dying,  it was the under 65s and men mostly affected,  apparently because they still went out to work while generally the women stayed home.

It is mentioned that world war one must have had an effect, many people were malnourished in Europe, and conditions were far from today's standards. 

Given the effect it must have had I'm amazed we never learned about it in school.

Looking through the information I'm not surprised that New Zealand had such a strict lockdown,  it seems that the Spanish flu was particularly virulent with Maori men, and Western Samoa lost 22% of its population. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

Now imagine the under 30s are told to crack on, and this thing mutates again,  or another strain comes in from another country,  then what would we do?

I'm not doubting that the lockdowns are having an effect on peoples lives, but is it not better than the possibility of far higher numbers of deaths?

 

[AVB]

1 minute ago, Mice! said:

I don't see young people dying in the numbers they did during world war two, but I understand why everyone is in lockdown. 

Let's say government decides that the under 30s aren't really being affected by the virus so they say they can carry on while everyone else stays home, for one many others would go nuts, if they can go out then why not us, imagine the police trying to manage it??

Two, they might not be badly affected but would you be happy going to work Monday knowing all the youngsters had been out all weekend possibly spreading the virus while being asymptomatic.

Three, how many say under 25s still live at home with their parents? It's not possible for the the under 30s not to come into contact with older people, shops, public transport, work.

People keep saying it's only the over 75s 80s 85s that are dying so it should just be them that isolate,  while that's probably a good idea I'd like to see some charts or graphs from government telling us the age ranges of the people who are in hospital with Covid.

People seem to be dismissing the daily death figures, we know people die all the time but is it normally in these numbers?

Anyone know much about the Spanish flu?

I've had a quick look and the numbers that died all around the world are unbelievable and it wasn't just the old folk dying,  it was the under 65s and men mostly affected,  apparently because they still went out to work while generally the women stayed home.

It is mentioned that world war one must have had an effect, many people were malnourished in Europe, and conditions were far from today's standards. 

Given the effect it must have had I'm amazed we never learned about it in school.

Looking through the information I'm not surprised that New Zealand had such a strict lockdown,  it seems that the Spanish flu was particularly virulent with Maori men, and Western Samoa lost 22% of its population. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

Now imagine the under 30s are told to crack on, and this thing mutates again,  or another strain comes in from another country,  then what would we do?

I'm not doubting that the lockdowns are having an effect on peoples lives, but is it not better than the possibility of far higher numbers of deaths?

 

So when do we say that enough is enough? They are now setting the scene for lockdown until the summer. And then who knows? So what if the vaccine doesn’t give the result it expects? Do we just stay locked up forever? 
 

Back to the interesting stuff. Opposite Room at the Top was the best greasy burger bar ever - Hunger cure it was called. We would stop off at Ilford on they way back from the City, get smashed (in both senses) in the club, have a massive burger that gave you intense heartburn and then jump on the last train, vomit comet, to Chelmsford. 

[Mungler]

Look at the graph and tell me why anyone under 40 is either at risk or to be troubled by this in any way, shape or form?

The only ‘issue’ is the young might give it to the elderly and all the more reason why the elderly should be isolating and everyone back to work. I’d add that the young should be encouraged to get it like chicken pox parties.

I just have not seen any cogent dispassionate argument why the elderly / vulnerable should not be isolating on their own. 
 

The answers are in that graph but there’s none so blind as those that refuse to see.

 

[Mice!]

6 minutes ago, AVB said:

So when do we say that enough is enough? They are now setting the scene for lockdown until the summer. And then who knows? So what if the vaccine doesn’t give the result it expects? Do we just stay locked up forever? 

I'm expecting restrictions till say summer,  hopefully then the over 65s will have had the vaccine.

[AVB]

2 minutes ago, Mice! said:

I'm expecting restrictions till say summer,  hopefully then the over 65s will have had the vaccine.

And if it isn’t as successful as hoped? What’s plan B? 

[Mungler]

Without saying ‘it’s not fair’ or ‘they could give it to the elderly / vulnerable’ can anyone tell me why those in the red square should be (a) concerned or fearful at all (b) isolating (c) not going out / back at work / back to school?

.

Edited January 21, 2021 by Mungler

[Mice!]

9 minutes ago, Mungler said:

Look at the graph and tell me why anyone under 40 is either at risk or to be troubled by this in any way, shape or form

You could easily say under 45, but then that's more people mixing that can come into contact with over 45s in work the shops etc.

Then would we see the figures jump up?

Say the over 30-45 age group, I'd imagine that's a pretty well behaved group, most will have kids, mortgages, I'd also guess most in that age group are currently sat at home not in work, which might be why the figures are low.

[Mungler]

1 minute ago, Mice! said:

You could easily say under 45, but then that's more people mixing that can come into contact with over 45s in work the shops etc.

Then would we see the figures jump up?

Say the over 30-45 age group, I'd imagine that's a pretty well behaved group, most will have kids, mortgages, I'd also guess most in that age group are currently sat at home not in work, which might be why the figures are low.

Errr there’s been 3.51 million ‘recorded’ cases of Covid in this country. And of course that figure can only be LOWER than the true infection figure - for example, in our household 4 out of 5 got it and had it without even knowing it or having their infection recorded anywhere.

Whether it’s 3 million who have had it, 5 million or 10 million, with those numbers you can’t suggest that the death rates for the under 45s are under represented because they’re just sensible or staying in. 

I’ve heard it all now. Talk about refusing to see.

[AVB]

I reckon you could set the bar at 65 and still be ok. Might need to have a bit more bed capacity but deaths would still be not significantly above average. Then life can go on as normal for the majority of the population. 

[Mice!]

6 minutes ago, Mungler said:

Whether it’s 3 million who have had it, 5 million or 10 million, with those numbers you can’t suggest that the death rates for the under 45s are under represented because they’re just sensible or staying in. 

I’ve heard it all now. Talk about refusing to see

I'm saying the numbers have stayed down in the 30-45 because people aren't mixing,  those that are working will be doing so under much different conditions than normal.

Do you really think that people not mixing isn't helping?

I'm not disagreeing that the under 45s aren't being affected in the same way, that's obvious.

[Lloyd90]

4 hours ago, Mice! said:

I'm saying the numbers have stayed down in the 30-45 because people aren't mixing,  those that are working will be doing so under much different conditions than normal.

Do you really think that people not mixing isn't helping?

I'm not disagreeing that the under 45s aren't being affected in the same way, that's obvious.

I have been thinking that for ages. 
 

We are in major lockdown, huge restrictions in place. Whilst not everyone is following it a lot of the population are. 
 

People are saying deaths are supposedly just as bad as normal ... but that’s with vast numbers of people not going out of their homes.

 

Would the deaths still be the same if we had just carried on as normal? 
 

Or would the same people who are criticising lockdown and saying we should go back to normal, be criticising the Government for not locking down and saying how they have killed a load of people?!