Long term effects of Coronavirus

[Vince Green]

From the Telegraph today

 

Almost a third of recovered Covid patients will end up back in hospital within five months and one in eight will die, alarming new figures have shown.

Research by Leicester University and the Office for National Statistics (ONS) found there is a devastating long-term toll on survivors of severe coronavirus, with many people developing heart problems, diabetes and chronic liver and kidney conditions. 

Out of 47,780 people who were discharged from hospital in the first wave, 29.4 per cent were readmitted to hospital within 140 days, and 12.3 per cent of the total died.

The current cut-off point for recording Covid deaths is 28 days after a positive test, so it may mean thousands more people should be included in the coronavirus death statistics.

Researchers have called for urgent monitoring of people who have been discharged from hospital.

[AVB]

Don’t you just love statistics. Considering the age profile of those worst affected during the 1st wave, how many of these were regular attendees at hospital before covid? How many would have gone on to develop  heart problems, diabetes and chronic liver and kidney conditions regardless of covid?

the article want you to assume that there is a link to covid for all these people subsequently readmitted to hospital and dying whereas it is, at the moment, just an analysis of numbers. As the article says more research is required. 

[discobob]

22 hours ago, AVB said:

Don’t you just love statistics. Considering the age profile of those worst affected during the 1st wave, how many of these were regular attendees at hospital before covid? How many would have gone on to develop  heart problems, diabetes and chronic liver and kidney conditions regardless of covid?

the article want you to assume that there is a link to covid for all these people subsequently readmitted to hospital and dying whereas it is, at the moment, just an analysis of numbers. As the article says more research is required. 

and mitigating factors taken into account in the figures

[ordnance]

On 18/01/2021 at 13:14, AVB said:

Don’t you just love statistics. Considering the age profile of those worst affected during the 1st wave, how many of these were regular attendees at hospital before covid? How many would have gone on to develop  heart problems, diabetes and chronic liver and kidney conditions regardless of covid?

the article want you to assume that there is a link to covid for all these people subsequently readmitted to hospital and dying whereas it is, at the moment, just an analysis of numbers. As the article says more research is required. 

The young can be effected, and people with no previous medical conditions.

• Quote

   

  • Heart. Imaging tests taken months after recovery from COVID-19 have shown lasting damage to the heart muscle, even in people who experienced only mild COVID-19 symptoms. This may increase the risk of heart failure or other heart complications in the future.
  • Lungs. The type of pneumonia often associated with COVID-19 can cause long-standing damage to the tiny air sacs (alveoli) in the lungs. The resulting scar tissue can lead to long-term breathing problems.
  • Brain. Even in young people, COVID-19 can cause strokes, seizures and Guillain-Barre syndrome — a condition that causes temporary paralysis. COVID-19 may also increase the risk of developing Parkinson's disease and Alzheimer's disease.

   

   

Edited January 19, 2021 by ordnance

[AVB]

2 hours ago, ordnance said:

The young can be effected, and people with no previous medical conditions.

•  

I’m not denying that. However the Telegraph article makes you want to believe  that everybody readmitted or dying after being discharged from hospital was due to covid. It’s poor analysis. 
 

the facts are that for the vast majority of people this is a minor illness. 

[Rewulf]

16 minutes ago, AVB said:

It’s poor analysis

It's a downright misleading analysis. 

A sensationalist,  fear mongering one too.

[discobob]

here's a fact that nobody can deny - 100% of people admitted to hospital, for any reason, will die in the future!

[snow white]

AVB and discobob are both spot on 

[Mungler]

If you look at the age profile of the seriously affected and the average age of those who go terminal, the list of returning conditions is pretty much what the average 80+ year old faces as a matter of age related routine, grim as that may be.

Unless we snap out of this gloom and doom we are doomed. 

Ive just watched the BBC news and they’re going to wring another day of that clip of the nice poor old boy who lost his 65 year old wife.

Where’s the balance? Where’s the ‘here’s 100,000 people who had it so mildly they didn’t even know they had it?’. Recovery without a scratch are in the superior majority but we don’t hear a peep of that. No, we get told that the £350 billion a year NHS with its 1.5 million personnel needs more money and more staff. 

[AVB]

45 minutes ago, Mungler said:

If you look at the age profile of the seriously affected and the average age of those who go terminal, the list of returning conditions is pretty much what the average 80+ year old faces as a matter of age related routine, grim as that may be.

Unless we snap out of this gloom and doom we are doomed. 

Ive just watched the BBC news and they’re going to wring another day of that clip of the nice poor old boy who lost his 65 year old wife.

Where’s the balance? Where’s the ‘here’s 100,000 people who had it so mildly they didn’t even know they had it?’. Recovery without a scratch are in the superior majority but we don’t hear a peep of that. No, we get told that the £350 billion a year NHS with its 1.5 million personnel needs more money and more staff. 

Why is that? Why have the media and the Government become so fixated with doom and gloom? I am trying to remember what ‘normal’ looked like but was it always like this? 

[Raja Clavata]

I'm pretty sure if the govt could credibly hang more deaths on COVID then they would.

I suspect the fixation on doom and gloom is part of justifying the cure being worse than the disease for most of us.

[discobob]

1 hour ago, AVB said:

Why is that? Why have the media and the Government become so fixated with doom and gloom? I am trying to remember what ‘normal’ looked like but was it always like this? 

Remember, Governments love bad news days as it allows them to sneak out other things - well they have had a bad news year!!

[Mungler]

6 hours ago, AVB said:

Why is that? Why have the media and the Government become so fixated with doom and gloom? I am trying to remember what ‘normal’ looked like but was it always like this? 

I’m not a tin foil hat wearer by nature but even I am starting to wonder.

There was a good documentary not that long ago that took a cynical look at the press and news coverage.

They did a statistical analysis of the front page headline of the Daily Express. Long story short, if they wanted to boost sales they’d run a Diana story. Extreme weather was also a winner for them. Indeed, when you think about the demographic of their reader it makes perfect sense.

Scroll on the underlying rule of sales and marketing - ‘fear’.  It’s singularly the best driver and it’s not just negative fear - for example if you want to sell something aspirational and expensive you press the fear of missing out or fear of being left behind.

Whether we are being deliberately controlled now by fear in a George Orwell way, who knows.

Indeed who knows what on earth is going on.

And have a look at this....

 

 

[TIGHTCHOKE]

One point, if I may, that is the Daily Express, so while I accept you are correct, I would also suggest they are setting their aim rather low.

[AVB]

1 hour ago, Mungler said:

I’m not a tin foil hat wearer by nature but even I am starting to wonder.

There was a good documentary not that long ago that took a cynical look at the press and news coverage.

They did a statistical analysis of the front page headline of the Daily Express. Long story short, if they wanted to boost sales they’d run a Diana story. Extreme weather was also a winner for them. Indeed, when you think about the demographic of their reader it makes perfect sense.

Scroll on the underlying rule of sales and marketing - ‘fear’.  It’s singularly the best driver and it’s not just negative fear - for example if you want to sell something aspirational and expensive you press the fear of missing out or fear of being left behind.

Whether we are being deliberately controlled now by fear in a George Orwell way, who knows.

Indeed who knows what on earth is going on.

And have a look at this....

 

 

Yep. A classic misunderstanding, deliberate or otherwise, of the word ‘rate’. The rate has increased I.e. the slope is steeper but as the graph clearly shows the absolute numbers are still less than 2008. 

[Mungler]

14 hours ago, AVB said:

Yep. A classic misunderstanding, deliberate or otherwise, of the word ‘rate’. The rate has increased I.e. the slope is steeper but as the graph clearly shows the absolute numbers are still less than 2008. 

Stolen from elsewhere and following the news that the South African variant is vaccine resistant.

Indeed, if anything comes for me, it’ll be one of the nastier variants and we will now be getting them year on year.

I once joked to my doctor that a hundred years ago, with my asthma, I would have been someone that didn’t make it out of the starting blocks / child hood.
 

“It is still mostly people teetering on the edge of the precipice anyway, the bald numbers overstate it.

Quite a lot of people WW2 killed would have been around to celebrate the new century, they missed marriage, promotion, children, their children's wedding, grandchildren, illicit affairs and potentially fame and fortune.

Most of those who died of Covid missed a year or two being escorted downstairs by a spotty young person who called them "love" for a lunch of boiled meat and cabbage. While their death may be tragic, it's tragedy on a different scale. But not all, of course. It's certainly a crisis. “

[henry d]

1 hour ago, Mungler said:

Stolen from elsewhere and following the news that the South African variant is vaccine resistant.

Indeed, if anything comes for me, it’ll be one of the nastier variants and we will now be getting them year on year.

I once joked to my doctor that a hundred years ago, with my asthma, I would have been someone that didn’t make it out of the starting blocks / child hood.
 

“It is still mostly people teetering on the edge of the precipice anyway, the bald numbers overstate it.

Quite a lot of people WW2 killed would have been around to celebrate the new century, they missed marriage, promotion, children, their children's wedding, grandchildren, illicit affairs and potentially fame and fortune.

Most of those who died of Covid missed a year or two being escorted downstairs by a spotty young person who called them "love" for a lunch of boiled meat and cabbage. While their death may be tragic, it's tragedy on a different scale. But not all, of course. It's certainly a crisis. “

Here is a bit of hope for you then. Apparently the virus needs to get rid of the protein spikes or make them smaller for the vaccine to be less effective.

Another thing is the increased rate of hospitalisation and subsequent deaths of younger people who then become the same as the WW2 people in the quotation. Hopefully that will make a few of them think about how they are acting during lockdown?

[Mungler]

5 hours ago, henry d said:

Another thing is the increased rate of hospitalisation and subsequent deaths of younger people who then become the same as the WW2 people in the quotation. 

I still don’t understand the lambasting of the young in this - they really really are not affected.

What you think is up there with the government telling everyone that if they took ecstasy they would all end up like Leah Betts. 

Deaths in England with no ‘diagnosed’ underlying health condition amount to 4169 and with no age range data given.

Current death by age range table is below:

 

[AVB]

1 hour ago, Mungler said:

I still don’t understand the lambasting of the young in this - they really really are not affected.

What you think is up there with the government telling everyone that if they took ecstasy they would all end up like Leah Betts. 

Deaths in England with no ‘diagnosed’ underlying health condition amount to 4169 and with no age range data given.

Current death by age range table is below:

 

I took ecstacy a few times in my youth some of which was acquired from the same nightclub as Leah Betts, the notorious ‘Raquel’s’. I danced for days on end. Did you ever frequent it’s dance floor @Mungler?  Famous of course be being ‘run’ by the dealers killed in the Essex ‘Range Rover’ murders.      

[henry d]

1 hour ago, Mungler said:

I still don’t understand the lambasting of the young in this - they really really are not affected.

Absolutely from that data, but increasing health care professionals are reporting increases in younger hospitalisations and deaths. The deaths from the above data come from people who were first diagnosed in early December or late November. If the anecdotal evidence from doctors and nurses is correct then we could be seeing a huge rise in deaths as they have been thinking that they are not affected by it, but the newer variant seems to be not as selective.

[AVB]

23 minutes ago, henry d said:

Absolutely from that data, but increasing health care professionals are reporting increases in younger hospitalisations and deaths. The deaths from the above data come from people who were first diagnosed in early December or late November. If the anecdotal evidence from doctors and nurses is correct then we could be seeing a huge rise in deaths as they have been thinking that they are not affected by it, but the newer variant seems to be not as selective.

Iir the same healthcare professionals were quoting the same during the first wave. 

[Mungler]

58 minutes ago, henry d said:

Absolutely from that data, but increasing health care professionals are reporting increases in younger hospitalisations and deaths. The deaths from the above data come from people who were first diagnosed in early December or late November. If the anecdotal evidence from doctors and nurses is correct then we could be seeing a huge rise in deaths as they have been thinking that they are not affected by it, but the newer variant seems to be not as selective.

Look at the date range on that graph - it’s from Dec 2019 to 8th January 2021.

Where are these increases in hospitalisation and deaths of young people?

Face it, if your under 30 and not already in a wheel chair etc then you have very very very very very very little to worry about.

1 hour ago, AVB said:

I took ecstacy a few times in my youth some of which was acquired from the same nightclub as Leah Betts, the notorious ‘Raquel’s’. I danced for days on end. Did you ever frequent it’s dance floor @Mungler?  Famous of course be being ‘run’ by the dealers killed in the Essex ‘Range Rover’ murders.      

Yes and yes.

My first ‘experience’ back in the day, was in Hollywood’s night club. I remember D:ream came on ‘things can only get better’ and the sensation was well, easily within my life Top 10. 

 

[clangerman]

how it affects the young is irrelevant as it’s a FACT they can and do infect other people just the same as anyone else can 

[Mungler]

1 minute ago, clangerman said:

how it affects the young is irrelevant as it’s a FACT they can and do infect other people just the same as anyone else can 

Yeah yeah yeah we’ve done that one to death.

This was in response to Henry suggesting that young people were going to die in the way and quantities as those in WW2, and they just aren’t.

I still don’t see why the rights and liberties of the young are trumped by the over 75’s - the age group who are best suited to lockdown - no job, no career, no mortgage, no family commitments.

Why isolate everyone and not just the over 75’s? The answer is a mix of core Tory Daily Mail reading voters and ‘misery enjoys company’.

 

[Raja Clavata]

As far as I'm aware the vaccine resistance of the South African strain is far from definitive at this stage but obviously the press latch onto the negativity around the early lab findings.

My 70 something neighbour was "giving it large" about the youngsters the other day, when I challenged him what he'd have been like at that age he conceded "a nightmare" and we changed subject.

1 hour ago, AVB said:

I took ecstacy a few times in my youth some of which was acquired from the same nightclub as Leah Betts, the notorious ‘Raquel’s’. I danced for days on end. Did you ever frequent it’s dance floor @Mungler?  Famous of course be being ‘run’ by the dealers killed in the Essex ‘Range Rover’ murders.      

Tony Tucker also used to work the door at Hollywoods, I can honestly say that fortunately I've met few more unsavoury people than him, he was a menace to everyone. That said he remains revered by some around these parts to this day. One of the guys who got banged up for the murders used to own a boat in Bradwell which he used to pick up drug drops from the air into the Blackwater - the boat was sold and we used to go out with the new owners fishing for roker and cod. I think he's due parole soon.

3 minutes ago, Mungler said:

Yeah yeah yeah we’ve done that one to death.

This was in response to Henry suggesting that young people were going to die in the way and quantities as those in WW2, and they just aren’t.

I still don’t see why the rights and liberties of the young are trumped by the over 75’s - the age group who are best suited to lockdown - no job, no career, no mortgage, no family commitments.

Why isolate everyone and not just the over 75’s? The answer is a mix of core Tory Daily Mail reading voters and ‘misery enjoys company’.

 

totally with you on this.