Fast forward to UK population having been vaccinated, what do we think happens next?

[AVB]

Which makes me think (dangerous). The NHS could ‘cope’ with all these deaths in the 50’s, 60’s, 70’s, 80’s, 90’s and 00’s yet can’t cope with lower rate now! 

3 minutes ago, ordnance said:

Its called reality, you would maybe get away with what you are suggesting in China or similar.  

The problem is ‘we’ accepted a higher rate of people dying in .... (select any year from 2008 backwards) but ‘we’ can’t accept that number today? 

[Mungler]

Apparently there’s a variant in Brazil that is entirely vaccine resistant, super contagious and which is coming for us all - there’s no herd immunity in that people who have recently had Covid had no immunity to this new one.

Deep joy. 

I just hope those that are left alive remember to thank the PRC for all of this - there’s no doubt in my mind how this virus came about (in a lab and not a wet market).

. 

Edited January 25, 2021 by Mungler

[henry d]

The problem with Brazil is the R rate (2.8 late last spring) and their presidents response to it; "So what? What do you want me to do?" Add in to that a huge rural and poor area with little infrastructure, whether the new strain is more contagious or deadly it was never going to look good for Brazil.

[Raja Clavata]

Are there any credible links to conclusions on the Brazil strain being vaccine resistance?

I came across this page about the SA variant, thought I'd posted the link previously but appear not to have:

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-preprint-reporting-that-the-south-african-sars-cov-2-variant-501y-v2-escapes-neutralisation-by-covid-19-donor-plasma/

Seems to me that little is still known about much of all this in a definite sense. I see lots of could or may which seems to get overlooked in the MSM agenda to impart sensationalism with heaps of doom and gloom thrown in for good measure.

[clangerman]

whatever strains mutate you can be sure it won’t take long to fly in when it’s time for the blame game to start boris gump is going to feel the full weight of public anger for failing to shut our borders and rightly so 

[Raja Clavata]

24 minutes ago, clangerman said:

whatever strains mutate you can be sure it won’t take long to fly in when it’s time for the blame game to start boris gump is going to feel the full weight of public anger for failing to shut our borders and rightly so 

There was a lot of talk on here about shutting the borders in the first lockdown but the horse had already bolted and it rightly wasn't a priority.

It's too late now but the initial response could have been a very hard line lock-down, something akin to marshall law, for a few weeks. 

That combined with a complete shutdown of people in and out the country would have stopped the virus in its tracks here, as it did in other places.

Data suggests appointing a women to run the country during this time would also have been a smart move. I won't go as far as saying anyone but Boris, but...

What is described above would surely have been less costly from both a public health and economic perspective. 

What I do find perplexing is that we didn't shut the borders completely to coincide with the mass vaccination programme.

[AVB]

7 minutes ago, clangerman said:

whatever strains mutate you can be sure it won’t take long to fly in when it’s time for the blame game to start boris gump is going to feel the full weight of public anger for failing to shut our borders and rightly so 

Which countries, other than those with limited international connections at the **** end of the world, have successfully managed to lock down their borders? And under what circumstances would you allow international travel if borders were locked down?  

[Gordon R]

I smile when I see "locking our borders". We haven't managed to keep 5 million plus illegals getting here and they are still arriving, so just how would a border lockdown work? No imports, no exports, no Joe Biden visiting Carbis Bay. 

North Korea appear to have a level of border control, but which countries have successfully closed their borders and solved this problem. I await a very short list, if any.

[Raja Clavata]

Illegals are a unique case, pardon the pun, but surely they are a drop in the ocean though in terms of bringing infections into the country at the moment.

There has been no enforced isolation after arriving in the country, to do so would have been costly but nothing like the economic catastrophe we are about to experience.

No need to stop imports and exports of goods, although other matters seem to have done a pretty job of ensuring that.

How many people would you estimate an illegal entering the country has come into contact with in the preceding week compared to a person who has travelled on business (the very purpose / current justification of which is to meet people) by air.

I don't accept the illegals argument as a valid one against against ensuring that, for example, a wealthy business person returning from Dubai on a Sunday can't roll into their office in Central London on Monday morning without any comeback.

But above all we need consistency, business needs it even more so. We can't stay locked down forever and the public will stick two fingers up to it soon anyway - particularly as the weather improves and the days get longer - who can blame them / us!?

Most other island nations appear to have done a much better job than us, especially those "ruled" by a woman.

There should be no doubt we have to find a way to live with this, I think everyone agrees with that. The key is how do we do it, the current approach doesn't seem to work and is unsustainable plus we can't keep throwing huge chunks of cash at the problem that don't actually provide a solution but create a whole world of pain down the line. Of course the devil is in the detail. As things are I don't see the vaccine roll-out in the UK as the panacea that some appear to. 

[AVB]

11 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

Illegals are a unique case, pardon the pun, but surely they are a drop in the ocean though in terms of bringing infections into the country at the moment.

There has been no enforced isolation after arriving in the country, to do so would have been costly but nothing like the economic catastrophe we are about to experience.

No need to stop imports and exports of goods, although other matters seem to have done a pretty job of ensuring that.

How many people would you estimate an illegal entering the country has come into contact with in the preceding week compared to a person who has travelled on business (the very purpose / current justification of which is to meet people) by air.

I don't accept the illegals argument as a valid one against against ensuring that, for example, a wealthy business person returning from Dubai on a Sunday can't roll into their office in Central London on Monday morning without any comeback.

But above all we need consistency, business needs it even more so. We can't stay locked down forever and the public will stick two fingers up to it soon anyway - particularly as the weather improves and the days get longer - who can blame them / us!?

Most other island nations appear to have done a much better job than us, especially those "ruled" by a woman.

There should be no doubt we have to find a way to live with this, I think everyone agrees with that. The key is how do we do it, the current approach doesn't seem to work and is unsustainable plus we can't keep throwing huge chunks of cash at the problem that don't actually provide a solution but create a whole world of pain down the line. Of course the devil is in the detail. As things are I don't see the vaccine roll-out in the UK as the panacea that some appear to. 

I'll repeat again. Which countries of a similar population and with the number of international connections as us, have successfully closed borders? Why no stopping of freight? So under your proposal a lorry drive can come in but somebody returning from medical treatment abroad couldn't? Or somebody returning home from visiting a sick relative? Or is there a greater list of exceptions that you would apply? Either you lock down totally or you don't and the former is just impractical imo. 

Like you I don't see the vaccine roll-out as going to solve this. Unfortunately lockdowns or closing borders won't either. We just have to learn to live and die with it.  

[Vince Green]

2 hours ago, clangerman said:

whatever strains mutate you can be sure it won’t take long to fly in when it’s time for the blame game to start boris gump is going to feel the full weight of public anger for failing to shut our borders and rightly so 

ten flights an hour still coming into heathrow and thats just one airport. Flights from such covlid secure places as Nigeria, Kenya, India, New York, etc.

[Raja Clavata]

27 minutes ago, AVB said:

I'll repeat again. Which countries of a similar population and with the number of international connections as us, have successfully closed borders? Why no stopping of freight? So under your proposal a lorry drive can come in but somebody returning from medical treatment abroad couldn't? Or somebody returning home from visiting a sick relative? Or is there a greater list of exceptions that you would apply? Either you lock down totally or you don't and the former is just impractical imo. 

Like you I don't see the vaccine roll-out as going to solve this. Unfortunately lockdowns or closing borders won't either. We just have to learn to live and die with it.  

I thought we were special and there is nowhere else like us to compare to directly 🙂

Seriously though, it's not trivial and would require coordinated efforts. 

We're an island, no need for a no mans land like you'd need on land borders. The freight can come in and out but it isn't accompanied by people.

Airline and ground crew staff sign up for a stint whereby they are locked in and can only return home once off duty through the same quarantine process enforced on those who absolutely must cross borders. We can still operate our major airports as hubs, isolated from the rest of the country.

People can return from visiting a sick relative but they go through the same enforced quarantine.

I think it's only not practical because the government had no appetite for it, was shockingly bad at rolling out a credible testing solution and felt it easier just to through money at the problem.

Effective closure of borders combined with short term draconian lockdown would absolutely have stopped the virus in its tracks. Sure we'd have been faced with a different set of problems but could it have been worse than what we are currently facing!?

I'm only presenting it since it could have been a workable alternative approach. My preference all along has been like yours - to let everyone crack on, either live or die by it but then we're not needing to be voted back in power in a few years time.

In the absence of a credible plan moving forward and on the basis that the vaccine isn't a silver bullet coupled with the fact lockdowns are economic suicide that only fan the flames of the infection rate, then the outlook is very bleak.

What does your version of "learn to live and die with it" actually mean in concrete terms?

Maybe we're wrong and the vaccine will allow all the restrictions to be lifted in time without the need for further lockdowns - I have zero faith that any model predicting this is robust (based on prior experience).

Something needs to give...

 

[Scully]

40 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

I thought we were special and there is nowhere else like us to compare to directly 🙂

Seriously though, it's not trivial and would require coordinated efforts. 

We're an island, no need for a no mans land like you'd need on land borders. The freight can come in and out but it isn't accompanied by people.

Airline and ground crew staff sign up for a stint whereby they are locked in and can only return home once off duty through the same quarantine process enforced on those who absolutely must cross borders. We can still operate our major airports as hubs, isolated from the rest of the country.

People can return from visiting a sick relative but they go through the same enforced quarantine.

I think it's only not practical because the government had no appetite for it, was shockingly bad at rolling out a credible testing solution and felt it easier just to through money at the problem.

Effective closure of borders combined with short term draconian lockdown would absolutely have stopped the virus in its tracks. Sure we'd have been faced with a different set of problems but could it have been worse than what we are currently facing!?

I'm only presenting it since it could have been a workable alternative approach. My preference all along has been like yours - to let everyone crack on, either live or die by it but then we're not needing to be voted back in power in a few years time.

In the absence of a credible plan moving forward and on the basis that the vaccine isn't a silver bullet coupled with the fact lockdowns are economic suicide that only fan the flames of the infection rate, then the outlook is very bleak.

What does your version of "learn to live and die with it" actually mean in concrete terms?

Maybe we're wrong and the vaccine will allow all the restrictions to be lifted in time without the need for further lockdowns - I have zero faith that any model predicting this is robust (based on prior experience).

Something needs to give...

 

It stated on the news the other night, that of the 70odd cases of the new variant found in the UK, all, that’s ALL, were due to international travel. 
Now, if this is really as serious as we are being told, what’s going on? 🤷‍♂️

Edited January 25, 2021 by Scully

[Gordon R]

Quote

The freight can come in and out but it isn't accompanied by people.

Bit surprised about that - lorry drivers spring to mind.

Quote

As things are I don't see the vaccine roll-out in the UK as the panacea that some appear to. 

Sadly, got to agree.

[Raja Clavata]

3 minutes ago, Gordon R said:

Bit surprised about that - lorry drivers spring to mind.

Drivers each side, don't travel with the cargo, would need coordination but hardly rocket science?

[AVB]

44 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

I thought we were special and there is nowhere else like us to compare to directly 🙂

Seriously though, it's not trivial and would require coordinated efforts. 

We're an island, no need for a no mans land like you'd need on land borders. The freight can come in and out but it isn't accompanied by people.

Airline and ground crew staff sign up for a stint whereby they are locked in and can only return home once off duty through the same quarantine process enforced on those who absolutely must cross borders. We can still operate our major airports as hubs, isolated from the rest of the country.

People can return from visiting a sick relative but they go through the same enforced quarantine.

I think it's only not practical because the government had no appetite for it, was shockingly bad at rolling out a credible testing solution and felt it easier just to through money at the problem.

Effective closure of borders combined with short term draconian lockdown would absolutely have stopped the virus in its tracks. Sure we'd have been faced with a different set of problems but could it have been worse than what we are currently facing!?

I'm only presenting it since it could have been a workable alternative approach. My preference all along has been like yours - to let everyone crack on, either live or die by it but then we're not needing to be voted back in power in a few years time.

In the absence of a credible plan moving forward and on the basis that the vaccine isn't a silver bullet coupled with the fact lockdowns are economic suicide that only fan the flames of the infection rate, then the outlook is very bleak.

What does your version of "learn to live and die with it" actually mean in concrete terms?

Maybe we're wrong and the vaccine will allow all the restrictions to be lifted in time without the need for further lockdowns - I have zero faith that any model predicting this is robust (based on prior experience).

Something needs to give...

 

The problem with lockdowns/locking borders is that they are a blunt instrument that cannot be sustained for ever. So what's the exit strategy? You unlock the borders and immediately you have reinfection and the cycle starts again. 

Considering that the death rate isn't that bad (remember it has been greater in every year from 2008 backwards) we are only hung up on it because we have it thrust in front of our noses every minute of every day. So learning to live and die with it is just that. We follow an element of social distancing and washing our hands but apart from that we forget about it and it becomes just another thing that will ultimately kill us - Like heart disease, cancer, alzheimer's etc. etc.  

 

[JohnfromUK]

2 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

Drivers each side, don't travel with the cargo, would need coordination but hardly rocket science?

I believe much done on the Northern Ireland crossing now?  Just the trailer ferried across.

[Mice!]

18 minutes ago, AVB said:

but apart from that we forget about it and it becomes just another thing that will ultimately kill us - Like heart disease, cancer, alzheimer's etc. etc.  

I don't think anyone would just forget about something that can kill you, you don't catch cancer or heart disease from being coughed on by a stranger. 

That's probably the attitude the Brazilian president took, just forget about it. 

[AVB]

7 minutes ago, Mice! said:

I don't think anyone would just forget about something that can kill you, you don't catch cancer or heart disease from being coughed on by a stranger. 

That's probably the attitude the Brazilian president took, just forget about it. 

Like the flu you mean. 

[Vince Green]

55 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

Drivers each side, don't travel with the cargo, would need coordination but hardly rocket science?

Thats what containers are for, not rocket science. And the containers are sealed so migrants cant break in

[Gordon R]

Seem quite a few lorries with Romanian or Polish plates driving around. I assume the driver comes with the lorry.

[Mice!]

1 hour ago, AVB said:

Like the flu you mean. 

It's not forgotten about though is it, the gov/nhs inoculate millions every year. 

[clangerman]

time will see who is right on the borders its a more than fair bet gump regrets it big time in due coarse joe public are slightly picky about being sacrificed for a tenner especially me 

[henry d]

2 hours ago, Gordon R said:

Bit surprised about that - lorry drivers spring to mind.

They just about live in the cab, hardly likely to be big spreaders and put yourself in their shoes, would you want to mix with all these Johnny foreigner Brits?

[ordnance]

Quote

The problem with lockdowns/locking borders is that they are a blunt instrument that cannot be sustained for ever. So what's the exit strategy? You unlock the borders and immediately you have reinfection and the cycle starts again. 

The vaccine is the exit strategy.