Lockdown is working.

[Mice!]

I've just been looking at the figures for Lancashire. 

https://www.lancs.live/news/lancashire-news/lancashires-new-infection-rates-fylde-19723944

All but one area has rates falling which is a good thing.

One thing that is still strange is that Knowsley is still so high.

........

Knowsley in Merseyside continues to have the highest rate in England, with 1,171 new cases recorded in the seven days to January 24 – the equivalent of 776.2 cases per 100,000 people.

........

Something obviously needs looking at in areas like this. Is there more testing being done or are the rules not being followed?

.........

Of the 315 local areas in England, 13 (4 per cent) have seen a rise in case rates, 301 (96 per cent) have seen a fall and one is unchanged.

.........

You would hope the rates would drop given we've been in lockdown for nearly a month, the only thing is is what happens when restrictions are lifted?

They showed the Isle of Man on the news today,  there lockdown had just finished and it was back to business as normal,  I can't see us managing that here in England. 

[AVB]

12 minutes ago, Mice! said:

I've just been looking at the figures for Lancashire. 

https://www.lancs.live/news/lancashire-news/lancashires-new-infection-rates-fylde-19723944

All but one area has rates falling which is a good thing.

One thing that is still strange is that Knowsley is still so high.

........

Knowsley in Merseyside continues to have the highest rate in England, with 1,171 new cases recorded in the seven days to January 24 – the equivalent of 776.2 cases per 100,000 people.

........

Something obviously needs looking at in areas like this. Is there more testing being done or are the rules not being followed?

.........

Of the 315 local areas in England, 13 (4 per cent) have seen a rise in case rates, 301 (96 per cent) have seen a fall and one is unchanged.

.........

You would hope the rates would drop given we've been in lockdown for nearly a month, the only thing is is what happens when restrictions are lifted?

They showed the Isle of Man on the news today,  there lockdown had just finished and it was back to business as normal,  I can't see us managing that here in England. 

I love it when people compare places like the Isle of Man (population 90,000) to England (population 56mln). What’s the point! 

[Ultrastu]

Gorden Bennett. 

 

Edited February 1, 2021 by Ultrastu

[Mice!]

19 minutes ago, AVB said:

I love it when people compare places like the Isle of Man (population 90,000) to England (population 56mln). What’s the point! 

I thought you were sick of the doom and gloom? It was nice to see some positive news on the news.

They had a strict lockdown and now they have reopened,  so those living there can carry on with their lives , I doubt there have been parties going on every week?

It obviously helps that they are a small island and can control who comes in, with isolation on access.

The point is that restrictions can work if they are taken seriously,  the R rate is dropping but given the numbers not following the lockdown rules now, I wonder how long it will be before things escalate again after the lockdown is relaxed. 

Being in lockdown during a wet January isn't the end of the world,  but as the weather improves people will want to go out.

[captainhastings]

Once you lift a lock down it will slowly climb again as its not going any where

[AVB]

8 hours ago, Mice! said:

I thought you were sick of the doom and gloom? It was nice to see some positive news on the news.

They had a strict lockdown and now they have reopened,  so those living there can carry on with their lives , I doubt there have been parties going on every week?

It obviously helps that they are a small island and can control who comes in, with isolation on access.

The point is that restrictions can work if they are taken seriously,  the R rate is dropping but given the numbers not following the lockdown rules now, I wonder how long it will be before things escalate again after the lockdown is relaxed. 

Being in lockdown during a wet January isn't the end of the world,  but as the weather improves people will want to go out.

I’m all for good news when it is relevant to me but the Isle of Man coming out of lockdown means nothing. Then you claim that people aren’t following the rules but then state that the R rate is falling so clearly a lot of people are. I am just not sure what point you were trying to make.  

 

[Raja Clavata]

Is Knowsley the area / postcode in Merseyside where there is the focus on infections from the SA variant - if so, that might explain the anomaly?

In my mind the general trend shows that the vast majority of people are complying, those completely disregarding the rules are in the minority and the slight bending of the rules, by those needing to find a balance compatible with their needs and requirements, isn't having a noticeable impact on the overall trend.

It would be really useful if someone could quantify this notion of "the numbers not following the lockdown rules now" - but I'm not holding my breath. Talking about a number with no attempt to quantify it just sounds like a pointless rant, a bit like my last paragraph here...  

[Dave-G]

Talking of rants - I really hope all the antivaxxers and party ****** will follow their convictions and not burden the NHS if they get Covid breathing issues.

[discobob]

46 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

Is Knowsley the area / postcode in Merseyside where there is the focus on infections from the SA variant - if so, that might explain the anomaly?

Knowsley has been high pretty much since the North's first wave (which was a time after that of the south). It also encompasses some of the poorest areas in the UK

[wymberley]

12 hours ago, AVB said:

I love it when people compare places like the Isle of Man (population 90,000) to England (population 56mln). What’s the point! 

Oh dear! Mice added what in effect is a footnote and then added an explanation in the following sentence to the one quoted. I for one can't see us managing it either. 

[Raja Clavata]

1 hour ago, discobob said:

Knowsley has been high pretty much since the North's first wave (which was a time after that of the south). It also encompasses some of the poorest areas in the UK

Thanks, that could well explain it then.

[clangerman]

bristol has a similar high spot knowle west if your living in a deprived area just getting by each day is probably more important than the rules more than sad we still have such places today 

[Mice!]

5 hours ago, Raja Clavata said:

In my mind the general trend shows that the vast majority of people are complying, those completely disregarding the rules are in the minority and the slight bending of the rules, by those needing to find a balance compatible with their needs and requirements, isn't having a noticeable impact on the overall trend.

Gladly yes, that has to be why the rates are falling. 

 

5 hours ago, Raja Clavata said:

Is Knowsley the area / postcode in Merseyside where there is the focus on infections from the SA variant - if so, that might explain the anomaly?

No I think that is Sefton in Southport,  it was reported as an isolated case with one person having the variant but there is mass testing going on to try and make sure its an isolated case. 

5 hours ago, Raja Clavata said:

It would be really useful if someone could quantify this notion of "the numbers not following the lockdown rules now" - but I'm not holding my breath. Talking about a number with no attempt to quantify it just sounds like a pointless rant, a bit like my last paragraph here...  

I wouldn't know how to find out how many fines have been issued,  but every week probably every day there will be a report of police braking up parties, I'm sure many are simply saying we'll be fine we are young, but it continues the spread.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/covid-boat-party-acton-canal-fines-b918086.html

I've just found this article,  if you look through it there are people right across the country still ignoring the lockdown rules, maybe the £800 fines aren't enough.

7 hours ago, AVB said:

I’m all for good news when it is relevant to me but the Isle of Man coming out of lockdown means nothing. Then you claim that people aren’t following the rules but then state that the R rate is falling so clearly a lot of people are. I am just not sure what point you were trying to make.  

 

I've said the R rate and infections are coming down which is great, it means the Lockdown was right, but people are still deliberately breaking the rules which means the spread won't stop, see above links.

To me the isle of Man is more relevant than Australia or New Zealand,  yes its small but it shows that the virus can be stopped with strict lockdown and penalties. 

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/uknews/13922586/isle-of-man-covid-end-lockdown-restrictions/

Imagine if instead of being fined people caught at parties were jailed for 21 days to makes sure they weren't spreading the virus,  it will never happen,  but if £800 fines aren't putting people off I'd say double it again. 

It will be very frustrating to have lockdown end then start again in a few months,  and this will likely be because of the minority who are happy to break the rules.

[AVB]

5 minutes ago, Mice! said:

Gladly yes, that has to be why the rates are falling. 

 

No I think that is Sefton in Southport,  it was reported as an isolated case with one person having the variant but there is mass testing going on to try and make sure its an isolated case. 

I wouldn't know how to find out how many fines have been issued,  but every week probably every day there will be a report of police braking up parties, I'm sure many are simply saying we'll be fine we are young, but it continues the spread.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/covid-boat-party-acton-canal-fines-b918086.html

I've just found this article,  if you look through it there are people right across the country still ignoring the lockdown rules, maybe the £800 fines aren't enough.

I've said the R rate and infections are coming down which is great, it means the Lockdown was right, but people are still deliberately breaking the rules which means the spread won't stop, see above links.

To me the isle of Man is more relevant than Australia or New Zealand,  yes its small but it shows that the virus can be stopped with strict lockdown and penalties. 

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/uknews/13922586/isle-of-man-covid-end-lockdown-restrictions/

Imagine if instead of being fined people caught at parties were jailed for 21 days to makes sure they weren't spreading the virus,  it will never happen,  but if £800 fines aren't putting people off I'd say double it again. 

It will be very frustrating to have lockdown end then start again in a few months,  and this will likely be because of the minority who are happy to break the rules.

You say lockdown ending but then start up again will be likely because of a minority breaking the rules! Surely it will flare up again because we ended lockdown? If we end lockdown there will be less rules to break. Even countries that were supposedly virus free are seeing flare ups

[Mice!]

9 minutes ago, AVB said:

You say lockdown ending but then start up again will be likely because of a minority breaking the rules! Surely it will flare up again because we ended lockdown? If we end lockdown there will be less rules to break. Even countries that were supposedly virus free are seeing flare ups

Lockdown has to end at some point,  those not following the rules now are far more likely to be the ones who continue to break the rules afterwards,  not social distance etc

[udderlyoffroad]

28 minutes ago, Mice! said:

I've said the R rate and infections are coming down which is great, it means the Lockdown was right

post hoc ergo propter hoc

28 minutes ago, Mice! said:

Imagine if instead of being fined people caught at parties were jailed for 21 days to makes sure they weren't spreading the virus

Maybe we should make them wear gold stars too?  I make no apology for invoking Godwin, this really is a slippery slope.  Can you point to any historical example of freedoms being restored, once they're taken away, without bloodshed?

28 minutes ago, Mice! said:

It will be very frustrating to have lockdown end then start again in a few months,  and this will likely be because of the minority who are happy to break the rules the government quite likes lockdowns, despite the economic chaos they cause, with the support of an almost completely uncritical media

Fixed it for you

Edited February 2, 2021 by udderlyoffroad

[Dave-G]

3 minutes ago, udderlyoffroad said:

post hoc ergo propter hoc

Maybe we should make them wear gold stars too?

Fixed it for you

Why would the government like the heavy financial hit that comes with a lockdown?

[Mice!]

2 minutes ago, udderlyoffroad said:

post hoc ergo propter hoc

You what? I could probably try and figure out the Latin but it would be much easier for you to just reply normally. 

2 minutes ago, udderlyoffroad said:

Maybe we should make them wear gold stars too?

So your perfectly happy that some people are meeting up for a party while the vast majority of people are following the rules?

[AVB]

8 minutes ago, Dave-G said:

Why would the government like the heavy financial hit that comes with a lockdown?

Governments don’t have money they just fleece the taxpayers. Now they realise they have a compliant population they just keep on hiking tax in the name of ‘covid’ or ‘protecting the NHS’. This government are anything but conservative. 

[udderlyoffroad]

1 minute ago, Dave-G said:

Why would the government like the heavy financial hit that comes with a lockdown?

I'm wrestling with this question too.

But they clearly do like it.  Short term, the benefits are enormous.  But so is the bill (in lives and money).

 

3 minutes ago, Mice! said:

You what? I could probably try and figure out the Latin but it would be much easier for you to just reply normally. 

See here

 

6 minutes ago, Mice! said:

So your you're perfectly happy that some people are meeting up for a party while the vast majority of people are following the rules?

Blimey, you've managed to cram a post hoc fallacy and a false dilemma fallacy into one thread.

I'm neither happy nor unhappy that people are having a party. 

If lockdown was truly 'working' the government would have a very clear commitment as to what would trigger the end of a lockdown.   As it is, we don't.

 

[Dave-G]

5 hours ago, AVB said:

Governments don’t have money they just fleece the taxpayers. Now they realise they have a compliant population they just keep on hiking tax in the name of ‘covid’ or ‘protecting the NHS’. This government are anything but conservative. 

Sorry but that doesn't add up for me. I really can't see ANY government making itself unpopular and crippling the economy just because it can.

I'm more inclined to think its preparing us to react swiftly when needed for what is looking increasingly like trials for a viral assisted world war.

If it wasn't the original plan it will almost certainly be being looked into by countries around the world - be it for seeding or protecting against. Tin foil at the ready.

Edited February 2, 2021 by Dave-G
Added 'assisted'

[Mice!]

9 minutes ago, udderlyoffroad said:

lockdown was truly 'working' the government would have a very clear commitment as to what would trigger the end of a lockdown.   As it is, we don't.

That was being discussed this morning,  apparently things are looking good but the science guys are urging caution,  but then I went to bed??

[AVB]

12 minutes ago, Dave-G said:

Sorry but that doesn't add up for me. I really can't see ANY government making itself unpopular and crippling the economy just because it can.

I'm more inclined to think its preparing us to react swiftly when needed for what is looking increasingly like trials for a viral world war.

If it wasn't the original plan it will almost certainly be being looked into by countries around the world - be it for seeding or protecting against. Tin foil at the ready.

Normally I would think that. But the population have become so hooked on doom and gloom, fed by a rabid media, that it’s is in fact doing anything other than being oppressive that will cause dissatisfaction. Look at the majority of lockdown fanatics on here! “Lock the borders, lockdown the country, shoot the dissenters” = “good job Boris”, whereas giving people back their freedoms and “it’s too soon, Grannie will die etc” = “bad job Boris”. 

[udderlyoffroad]

3 hours ago, Mice! said:

That was being discussed this morning,  apparently things are looking good but the science guys are urging caution,  but then I went to bed??

Oh well that's ok then, the science guys.  The cabal of unsackable, unanswerable, ejiots who bizarrely have the ear PM.  The ones whose mathematical modelling would get a fail on any STEM-undergrad assignment?

Them.

And what is there to even discuss.  What metric do we need to have passed to come out of lockdown.  It's really a simple question.

We're boned, as they say across the pond.

3 hours ago, AVB said:

But the population have become so hooked on doom and gloom, fed by a rabid media, that it’s is in fact doing anything other than being oppressive that will cause dissatisfaction.

Nail.  Head.

Edited February 2, 2021 by udderlyoffroad

[discobob]

15 hours ago, Dave-G said:

Why would the government like the heavy financial hit that comes with a lockdown?

To me I feel that Governments of the last 20 years haven't want to change PAYE - while fiddling around with NI etc....and then an introduction of a quite draconian fine culture - while waving the "we didn't increase direct taxation" flag. Whereas now we will, as has been said previously, they can wave the Covid flag as to the reason why - lets call it their "blank cheque" or "get out of jail free" card.

Meanwhile, as we have seen, there have been quite a few people who, directly or indirectly, associated with MP's have profited quite handsomely out of the Pandemic along with MP's themselves directly benefiting from it.

I also believe that the biggest proponents in society for lockdowns being used are those that are not affected by the lockdowns, namely government employees (Central/local/BBC etc who are 100% salary), furloughed (and not financially disadvantaged by it) and people highly dependent on the benefits system.