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middle east escalation


ditchman
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11 hours ago, Cosmicblue said:

A while back I heard that the concept of a 'god' or 'higher being' only came about because mankind hasn't been able to grasp the fact that we are here on our own, and yes a sizeable chunk of all conflicts are religion based...so if there is a 'God' what's it up to because the current mode of operation isn't working too well.

 

Yes, IMO, religion was originally a way to account for the things that we could not explain, and then morphed from there.

 

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17 hours ago, oowee said:

What value having an untrustworthy ally like the US? 

I never realised you thought of the US like that, would you care to explain the reasoning ?

Im not necessarily disagreeing with you, personally I think the US would use whatever leverage and resources from us, or anyone else, for their own benefit, any day of the week, but we do have ancestral ties to them, which transcend most other countries.

For my part, Iran are playing a clever but dangerous game of chess with Israel.
To elaborate, Israeli defence (and offense) is based on hi tech, high cost weaponry, and while Iran does have some hi tech stuff, its based more on low tech, high volume.
Its said that Israel spent over a billion dollars defending itself from the Iranian attack of some 200 drones and missiles, its also said that Iran could have as many as 20,000 shahed drones, and an unknown number of cruise and ballistic missiles.
Israel claims to have shot down 99% of the inbound threats, so a rough calculation means that 2 got through , but caused minimal damage, yet I saw a video that showed 3 missiles striking roughly the same place within a minute ?
Claims aside, if this escalates, Israel is an an economic loser, even it it broadly 'wins' , and while no land invasion is technically possible from either side, the land areas of the 2 sides are pretty disproportionate , there are just more places where Iran could hide launch sites ect.
This creates a huge problem for the US , its already heavily involved in Ukraine, with Zelensky screaming for Patriot batteries and missiles (at 4 million dollars a pop, and billions for the battery) Israel does have some home grown air defence like iron dome, but if this barrage from Iran continues , those batteries could be easily depleted.
China , a close ally of Iran, casts its beady eye on Taiwan, again needing air defence and fighters, (which even now , could not stand up to a proper Chinese attack), could feasibly end up fighting 3 proxy wars at once.
Does it have the capacity to do this, I dont believe it does.

I think if it came to a choice of who to support, the US would choose Israel over the other two, at least they would get some payment for it.
Which leaves the other two in a leaky boat with no paddle, and thats why the US will be desperate to convince Israel to bide its time, and not escalate.
Will they listen, because they certainly havent listened over Gaza.

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On 14/04/2024 at 11:54, ditchman said:

all these "war reports".........its all USA....UK.....did this ...did that with whoever...blah blah blah...........and the EU has got its head down behind the sofa..with no firm commitment or statement

no wonder the UK is skint we are always shelling out for other countries benifit....so much for the United Nations of this world

In the case of Ukraine - I understand the west made a commitment to assist them defend themselves if attacked if they gave up there nuclear missiles in a disarmament deal. That may or may not include NATO - I forget.

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53 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

I never realised you thought of the US like that, would you care to explain the reasoning ?

 

Flip flopping ally. Potential for Moscow controlled administration if Trump gets in. Unlikely but possible. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Dave-G said:

In the case of Ukraine - I understand the west made a commitment to assist them defend themselves if attacked if they gave up there nuclear missiles in a disarmament deal. That may or may not include NATO - I forget.

Russia and NATO both gave assurances to Ukraine that they would be looked after if they 'gave up' the nukes.
But lets look at it rationally, Ukraine was never going to allowed to keep those nukes, the nuke club is pretty exclusive, with only a handful of states allowed to have them, even Israel doesnt admit to having them (but it does) because its never been given permission by well , whoevers in charge of nuke licences :drinks:

 

Just now, oowee said:

Flip flopping ally. Potential for Moscow controlled administration if Trump gets in. Unlikely but possible. 

 

Err, Trumps already been in, and the administration wasnt controlled by Moscow, does that not kind of negate that argument ?
Trumps Russian collusion syndrome has been thoroughly debunked after multiple investigations, and was clearly a sour grapes DNC fake news plot, any other conclusion is just not realistic.

As for flip flopping , can you give an example ?

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2 hours ago, Rewulf said:

Russia and NATO both gave assurances to Ukraine that they would be looked after if they 'gave up' the nukes.
But lets look at it rationally, Ukraine was never going to allowed to keep those nukes, the nuke club is pretty exclusive, with only a handful of states allowed to have them, even Israel doesnt admit to having them (but it does) because its never been given permission by well , whoevers in charge of nuke licences :drinks:

 

Err, Trumps already been in, and the administration wasnt controlled by Moscow, does that not kind of negate that argument ?
Trumps Russian collusion syndrome has been thoroughly debunked after multiple investigations, and was clearly a sour grapes DNC fake news plot, any other conclusion is just not realistic.

As for flip flopping , can you give an example ?

Inability to deliver on commitments and latest arms package (Mike Pence (Moscow Mike)). Trumps statement about finishing the war in 24 hrs undermines the countries commitment, gives Russia hope, shows weak ally. Proposals by Trump to withdraw from NATO. MTG statements about Ukraine. All shows the US as a likely flip flopping foreign policy stance. 

Biden and his administration is clearly there for Ukraine but it's support is blocked and undermined by Trump. It's not the sign of a strong ally for Ukraine or Europe or for the UK. 

The financial connection between Trump and Russia may not have been made yet but it will be. Meeting with Orban, Tucker Carlson's father and Orban, Danube Institute (Orban) Heritage Foundation and agenda 25. 

 

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43 minutes ago, oowee said:

Inability to deliver on commitments and latest arms package

Like what , I thought we wanted to keep our arms industry 'in house' or within the EU ?

43 minutes ago, oowee said:

(Mike Pence (Moscow Mike))

This Mike Pence ? 
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-pence-claim-threat/28532152.html

45 minutes ago, oowee said:

Trumps statement about finishing the war in 24 hrs undermines the countries commitment

Do you mean his commitment to end the war through negotiation, rather than keep it going 'to the last Ukrainian' which appears to be the wet dream of some dem politicos ?
He stated clearly, he just wanted the killing to stop, its not about supporting Russia at all.

 

48 minutes ago, oowee said:

Proposals by Trump to withdraw from NATO. MTG statements about Ukraine. All shows the US as a likely flip flopping foreign policy stance. 

Trumps not in power , so the policy as it stands, stays the same.
Do the US subsidise NATO? Yes.
Should they have to ? No.

 

52 minutes ago, oowee said:

Biden and his administration is clearly there for Ukraine but it's support is blocked and undermined by Trump. It's not the sign of a strong ally for Ukraine or Europe or for the UK. 

???  Trump is in no position to influence ANYTHING ! 

Hes not even a member of the senate or house of reps, Ill think youll find the Biden administration could easily get past some military aid for Ukraine, they choose not to , as they will never get that investment back, so just blame the GOP for it.

56 minutes ago, oowee said:

The financial connection between Trump and Russia may not have been made yet but it will be. Meeting with Orban, Tucker Carlson's father and Orban, Danube Institute (Orban) Heritage Foundation and agenda 25. 

 

Honestly !
You said Trump would be exposed and jailed for this YEARS ago, if he had received 1 rouble from the Kremlin , we would have heard about it by now.
Biden on the other hand, HAS received monies from a foreign power, but what do we get ? Tumbleweed :lol:

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35 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

Like what , I thought we wanted to keep our arms industry 'in house' or within the EU ?

This Mike Pence ? 
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-pence-claim-threat/28532152.html

Do you mean his commitment to end the war through negotiation, rather than keep it going 'to the last Ukrainian' which appears to be the wet dream of some dem politicos ?
He stated clearly, he just wanted the killing to stop, its not about supporting Russia at all.

 

Trumps not in power , so the policy as it stands, stays the same.
Do the US subsidise NATO? Yes.
Should they have to ? No.

 

???  Trump is in no position to influence ANYTHING ! 

Hes not even a member of the senate or house of reps, Ill think youll find the Biden administration could easily get past some military aid for Ukraine, they choose not to , as they will never get that investment back, so just blame the GOP for it.

Honestly !
You said Trump would be exposed and jailed for this YEARS ago, if he had received 1 rouble from the Kremlin , we would have heard about it by now.
Biden on the other hand, HAS received monies from a foreign power, but what do we get ? Tumbleweed :lol:

Mike Johnson rather than Pence. 

What negotiation is there to be had with a terror state? Trumps commitment to ending the war is simply to give in to Russia demands by acceding territory. 

Johnson is blocking the Ukraine aid bill going through the senate at the behest of Trump via MTG at the threat of having his seat vacated. The Border deal originally set as a prerequisite of the aid deal was agreed by both republicans and democrats and then subsequently blocked by Trump via Johnson. 

By 'Biden on the other hand' I presume you refer to the Kremlin agent and serial liar 'Smirnov'  lying to the FBI about a link to Biden and Ukraine. Allegations at the heart of the Republican impeachment demand and his subsequent imprisonment. 

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8 minutes ago, oowee said:

What negotiation is there to be had with a terror state? Trumps commitment to ending the war is simply to give in to Russia demands by acceding territory. 

Its a 'terror state' that sits on the UN security council ?
Why dont they kick them out and blast them out of existence ?

14 minutes ago, oowee said:

Mike Johnson rather than Pence. 

Johnson, a Louisiana Republican who ascended to the speakership after the ousting of Kevin McCarthy in October, has long pledged to put forward a bill to approve further rounds of military aid to Ukraine in its ongoing war against Russia. Such a bill has been routinely advocated for by President Joe Biden, with Ukrainian leaders warning that they will lose the war without it.

 

The matter has faced strong headwinds, however, in the bitterly divided Republican House caucus, with further-right members like Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia strongly opposing any continued funding for Ukraine, and others wanting to hold such funding back until stricter U.S.-Mexico border laws can be passed. Johnson has been seen in some corners as stalling on aid in order to protect his position, considering that Greene has threatened to put forward a motion to vacate the speakership if he moves forward with Ukraine aid.

On Friday, Julia Davis, founder of the Russia Media Monitor watchdog group, shared a clip from one of the Moscow's state-run news programs, in which pundits touched on a planned meeting between Johnson and former President Donald Trump at the latter's Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida, with one guest suggesting that Trump's influence could be the deciding factor in the fate of further aid to Ukraine.

So hes a Russian plant , like Trump ,because a journo says so ?

20 minutes ago, oowee said:

By 'Biden on the other hand' I presume you refer to the Kremlin agent and serial liar 'Smirnov'  lying to the FBI about a link to Biden and Ukraine. Allegations at the heart of the Republican impeachment demand and his subsequent imprisonment. 

Funny how all Bidens (and his sons) accusers are all liars, and all Trumps accusers are telling the truth ?

Despite hard evidence to the contrary.

https://oversight.house.gov/the-bidens-influence-peddling-timeline/

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Anyway back on topic.
This man says if the Israelis would have just given him the price of a patriot missile (£4 million) he would have just landed it, and spent the rest of his life in luxury !

May be an image of ‎2 people, helicopter and ‎text that says '‎اصيدليف 17.4m Iranian pilot lucky to be alive After being shot down during Israel attack‎'‎‎

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49 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

Its a 'terror state' that sits on the UN security council ?
Why dont they kick them out and blast them out of existence ?

Johnson, a Louisiana Republican who ascended to the speakership after the ousting of Kevin McCarthy in October, has long pledged to put forward a bill to approve further rounds of military aid to Ukraine in its ongoing war against Russia. Such a bill has been routinely advocated for by President Joe Biden, with Ukrainian leaders warning that they will lose the war without it.

 

The matter has faced strong headwinds, however, in the bitterly divided Republican House caucus, with further-right members like Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia strongly opposing any continued funding for Ukraine, and others wanting to hold such funding back until stricter U.S.-Mexico border laws can be passed. Johnson has been seen in some corners as stalling on aid in order to protect his position, considering that Greene has threatened to put forward a motion to vacate the speakership if he moves forward with Ukraine aid.

On Friday, Julia Davis, founder of the Russia Media Monitor watchdog group, shared a clip from one of the Moscow's state-run news programs, in which pundits touched on a planned meeting between Johnson and former President Donald Trump at the latter's Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida, with one guest suggesting that Trump's influence could be the deciding factor in the fate of further aid to Ukraine.

So hes a Russian plant , like Trump ,because a journo says so ?

Funny how all Bidens (and his sons) accusers are all liars, and all Trumps accusers are telling the truth ?

Despite hard evidence to the contrary.

https://oversight.house.gov/the-bidens-influence-peddling-timeline/

The liar Smirnov is in jail as a proven liar !!!! There is no evidence, It couldn't be clearer even republicans are saying so. 

The border deal was agreed and scuppered by Trump to avoid a Biden win and to stop the UKraine funding (some would say to keep his handlers happy. Nowt to do with any journo. 

Trump is a fraud and fortunately it looks ever likely that he will be out and increasingly likely he going down (come on Judge Merchan 🙂). Trump is the very reason why Europe is reorganising it's position re NATO. Trump is the very reason why the US is a flaky ally. 

 

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On 13/04/2024 at 22:07, ditchman said:

RELIGION STINKS it always has been the cause of most of the deaths in this world......

I think you will find old age and disease take the biscuit for that..
Communism would likely take 2nd place if you factor in the consequential deaths of events like the Great Leap Forward.

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37 minutes ago, serrac said:

I think you will find old age and disease take the biscuit for that..
Communism would likely take 2nd place if you factor in the consequential deaths of events like the Great Leap Forward.

you are being fernickierty............i should have added the word "avoidable".....:hmm:

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On 14/04/2024 at 11:48, oowee said:

We have to stop agreeing with each other 🤣 I will loose my reputation for being a miserable ...

I don’t think there is any danger of that 🫣

 

On 14/04/2024 at 18:54, ditchman said:

anyone want to buy my Gieger counter ?

Not really, I have all my Geiger’s locked away in numerical order so already know how many I have ☺️

:shaun:

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6 hours ago, Gordon R said:

If he is so powerful, how did he lose the last election? 

Answers on some spare ballot papers. 🙂

He didn’t, or doesn’t think he did 🫨

 

He wuz robbed, don’t you remember 🤦🏻‍♂️

:shaun:

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Israel have said they will retaliate and hit back at Iran...................i wonder what form this will take...

just a few well placed missiles/bombs

or a bloody good pasting....with several strikes on enrichment plants before the Iranians can produce the goodstuff

i bet the planners are busy as we speak  

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32 minutes ago, ditchman said:

Israel have said they will retaliate and hit back at Iran...................i wonder what form this will take...

just a few well placed missiles/bombs

or a bloody good pasting....with several strikes on enrichment plants before the Iranians can produce the goodstuff

i bet the planners are busy as we speak  

I'd not be surprised if that was a western/Jordan backed gameplan: Israel attacks Iran a few weeks ago, knowing it would lead to sufficient escalation and cover story to wipe out Iran's nuclear preparations which are said to be nearing fruition.

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13 hours ago, serrac said:

I think you will find old age and disease take the biscuit for that..
Communism would likely take 2nd place if you factor in the consequential deaths of events like the Great Leap Forward.

Oh, come on. Religion has been around in one form or another for almost as long as us.

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9 hours ago, ditchman said:

Israel have said they will retaliate and hit back at Iran...................i wonder what form this will take...

just a few well placed missiles/bombs

or a bloody good pasting....with several strikes on enrichment plants before the Iranians can produce the goodstuff

i bet the planners are busy as we speak  

They could do something non destructive like dropping hundreds of thousands of bacon rashers on them, or flip-flop sandals as it’s an insult being hit by one. :)

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2 hours ago, old'un said:

They could do something non destructive like dropping hundreds of thousands of bacon rashers on them, or flip-flop sandals as it’s an insult being hit by one. :)

i think being in the modern age the israelis would prefer to drop packets of  explodingFrazzles....followed by a swift strike of Pork scratchings

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