Costs of jobs-possible inflation?

[Mungler]

7 minutes ago, Sawyet said:

55 minutes ago, Mungler said:

58, up until earlier this year it had never really been on our radar.

I suppose along with a lot of Business owners we have had several approaches over the years but the timing has never been right. For a very specific reason my Wife & I don’t have pensions (we did but, needed the cash 3 years ago to fund a very expensive legal battle on behalf of my Mother-in-Law which she settled at mediation but due to that didn’t receive costs). We own rental properties (both resi & holiday) that my Wife runs but the resi climate is so toxic at the minute that we are getting out & the holiday lets in N.Wales (due to Gwynedd Councils A4 directive) are also now questionable so we are moving out of that. Those investments were supposed to be our “pension” along with any capital we receive from selling the Business/Business premises. Currently the income from our own personal portfolio is supporting the Business but as that dwindles & we offload the properties I am not prepared to eat into our capital (if that makes sense).

All makes perfect sense to me.

Until the wind change with the Tories doing away with mortgage interest relief on buy to let’s, I had considered them a string to any pension plan - like an annuity. My business partner and I are in the process of pulling those stumps now - it’s given me sleepless nights as we’ve had the same tenants for over a decade and I have no idea where they can go - there’s no rental properties anywhere inside the M25 now, they’ve all gone. 

 

[Penelope]

19 minutes ago, Mungler said:

All makes perfect sense to me.

Until the wind change with the Tories doing away with mortgage interest relief on buy to let’s, I had considered them a string to any pension plan - like an annuity. My business partner and I are in the process of pulling those stumps now - it’s given me sleepless nights as we’ve had the same tenants for over a decade and I have no idea where they can go - there’s no rental properties anywhere inside the M25 now, they’ve all gone. 

 

it’s given me sleepless nights as we’ve had the same tenants for over a decade and I have no idea where they can go - there’s no rental properties anywhere inside the M25 now, they’ve all gone. 

 

That's a very tough decision to make, Mungler. One I don't envy you for.

Edited November 13 by Penelope

[Sawyet]

it’s given me sleepless nights as we’ve had the same tenants for over a decade and I have no idea where they can go - there’s no rental properties anywhere inside the M25 now, they’ve all gone.

 

We were fortunate when we moved from Cheshire to N.Wales around 6 years ago Wife sold 3 BTL & kept 2 (used the three to buy holiday lets in the village), two of the tenants approached us to buy as we could pass on the savings of a direct sale to them (one were private individuals & the other a Corporate that we provided serviced accommodation for senior managers/execs that were on secondment to satellites in the NW). One of the remaining tenants has shown interest in buying & we are looking into some sort of "buy as you pay" scheme as again we can pass the saving on to them (Estate Agents CGT etc) but although we are quite happy we are struggling to find legal that will draw up a contract!

We spoke to our tenants long before we jumped & it made sense to take a hit on the price in order to have income literally until completion date so it suited both parties. We probably could have got a bit more on the open market, but as you have alluded with your "sleepless nights" I think its important that you treat people as you would like to be treated.

Good luck with whatever you do.

 

[oldypigeonpopper]

Hello, It is not so much Employers getting rid of Employees it is a case of not taking on any new people

[TOPGUN749]

1 minute ago, oldypigeonpopper said:

Hello, It is not so much Employers getting rid of Employees it is a case of not taking on any new people

As the older workers retire,or some move to other jobs then they must hire fresh staff at the higher costs,or cease trading.It will stop business expanding probably unless they can pass employment costs on to customers. Then we all pay due the inflation caused and the higher interest rates to follow!

[team tractor]

15 hours ago, oowee said:

I have seen your work it looks amazing it's hard to understand the situation re pricing. I don't know your rates but here it's almost impossible to get work done. In Plymouth I am paying £70 an hour for engineers, carpenters, or electricians or riggers and they are mostly booked six months ahead.

That’s £4000 fitted +vat . 
 

I spent 2 weeks with 1 lad making it .

£700 Sapele 

 glass 

locks handles etc , threshold , seals 

roughly say £1500 in material. 
Leaves £2500 for 2 weeks 2 blokes . I really need £350-400 a day each to make it pay . 
 

our over heads are roughly £60k  a year 

[Dougy]

9 hours ago, oldypigeonpopper said:

Hello, It is not so much Employers getting rid of Employees it is a case of not taking on any new people

Thats one of the reasons i took early retirement.

I saw 4 HR managers in 2 years, payroll was cut to he bone  to the point HR was involved due to pay issues, but that increased stress on the new HR and they left, and so on. I could write a thesis but you get the picture. I was involved in level 3 disciplinary's created by unqualified managers, put in place because it was cheaper than employing qualified people.  

[oldypigeonpopper]

2 hours ago, Dougy said:

Thats one of the reasons i took early retirement.

I saw 4 HR managers in 2 years, payroll was cut to he bone  to the point HR was involved due to pay issues, but that increased stress on the new HR and they left, and so on. I could write a thesis but you get the picture. I was involved in level 3 disciplinary's created by unqualified managers, put in place because it was cheaper than employing qualified people.  

Hello, From what you say I can understand why you decided to retire, Hope it all goes well Dougy 

[JohnfromUK]

I note that today longer term interest rates on mortgages are rising again as the lenders build in an expectation that BofE rates will not fall as expected as Labour pushes up inflation and damages growth.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr7nje57jrlo

[Mungler]

7 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

I note that today longer term interest rates on mortgages are rising again as the lenders build in an expectation that BofE rates will not fall as expected as Labour pushes up inflation and damages growth.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr7nje57jrlo

Yes, the BoE cut its rate but no one noticed or did anything - the government’s budget has increased the money supply cost and regardless of what the BoE does, if the market disagrees it will do its own thing to cover its own position / costs.

There will be another 1/4 cut in January, but whether anyone sees that benefit on their mortgage statement remains to be seen. 

My 2p, what the government has planned (flooding the public sector with money), that coupled with no increase in growth (most likely we will be in official recession by the end of Q1 next year) and then will come inflation and interest rates going up. 

It’s a depressive mess. There’s an obvious economic car crash coming and the government can’t see that what it has planned will make everything a whole lot worse.

[JohnfromUK]

3 minutes ago, Mungler said:

It’s a depressive mess. There’s an obvious economic car crash coming and the government can’t see that what it has planned will make everything a whole lot worse.

It's the same every time with Labour;

1. Borrow and tax more
2. Pour the money into an inefficient public sector
3. Pushes up inflation
4. Pushes up interest rates
5. Reduces growth
6. Pushes up unemployment
7. Pushes up borrowing more (to pay for the reduced tax income and additional benefits caused by unemployment)
8. Circle goes round again
9. Labour loose election, public pays for all their follies.

Same every time.

[Mungler]

2 hours ago, JohnfromUK said:

It's the same every time with Labour;

1. Borrow and tax more
2. Pour the money into an inefficient public sector
3. Pushes up inflation
4. Pushes up interest rates
5. Reduces growth
6. Pushes up unemployment
7. Pushes up borrowing more (to pay for the reduced tax income and additional benefits caused by unemployment)
8. Circle goes round again
9. Labour loose election, public pays for all their follies.

Same every time.

Spot on.

Rinse and repeat job. 

[oowee]

It's not looking good with the tariffs from Trump on the horizon. Tariffs from the EU on China 

UK will need to decide which side it favours, EU or US.

This enlarged Weimar mtg with Tusk and the recent overtures to and from the EU are all good signs for a progressive trade arrangement. The bypassing of FBI clearance tests for Trump appointments, together with the choice of appointments should also make the decision easier.

Either way it's likely to be further trade depressing news. 

[Mungler]

On 12/11/2024 at 04:34, Mungler said:

The problem is that the government want to grow the public sector and the public sector has to be funded by the private sector.

Throwing inflation busting pay rises around to all areas of the public sector won’t just effect the here and now with inflation but the really big damage comes later with public sector pensions and perks - in short we will be paying for what’s coming next, forever.  

 

On 12/11/2024 at 04:34, Mungler said:

The problem is that the government want to grow the public sector and the public sector has to be funded by the private sector.

Throwing inflation busting pay rises around to all areas of the public sector won’t just effect the here and now with inflation but the really big damage comes later with public sector pensions and perks - in short we will be paying for what’s coming next, forever.  

It’s all so predictable.

There will be no interest rate cuts now, inflation has kicked in early. Well, spaffing all that money round the public sector….

Prediction : Inflation, higher interest rates and no growth. 

We’re in a right mess and heading straight back to the 1970’s.

What does anyone expect though? We have a cabinet stuffed full of people who have only known the public sector, not one has ever run a business or known the real world. And now it appears that the Chancellor lied on her CV and has exposed her lack of qualification for the role.

I still blame the conservatives. Sunak could have called an election at the end of this month - I think he didn’t because he saw Trump getting into the Whitehouse (all the rational people saw that one coming) and with that Farrage would have made a compelling PM and we would be looking at a Reform government or a coalition with Reform.

 

[TIGHTCHOKE]

17 minutes ago, Mungler said:

I still blame the conservatives. Sunak could have called an election at the end of this month - I think he didn’t because he saw Trump getting into the Whitehouse (all the rational people saw that one coming) and with that Farrage would have made a compelling PM and we would be looking at a Reform government or a coalition with Reform.

An interesting point.

[Newbie to this]

5 hours ago, Mungler said:

I think he didn’t because he saw Trump getting into the Whitehouse (all the rational people saw that one coming) and with that Farrage would have made a compelling PM and we would be looking at a Reform government or a coalition with Reform.

I don't think that is right, I think he called and early election, because he had no intentions of sending any illegal to Rwanda.

[Mungler]

3 hours ago, Newbie to this said:

I don't think that is right, I think he called and early election, because he had no intentions of sending any illegal to Rwanda.

He could have longed that off for a bit longer. 

It’s just infuriating that having thrown so much at a Rwanda solution, good old Labour scrap it immediately and start over with an Albanian solution. There’s never a problem spending other people’s money under labour…

[Mungler]

On 20/11/2024 at 09:10, Mungler said:

 

It’s all so predictable.

There will be no interest rate cuts now, inflation has kicked in early. Well, spaffing all that money round the public sector….

Prediction : Inflation, higher interest rates and no growth. 

We’re in a right mess and heading straight back to the 1970’s.

What does anyone expect though? We have a cabinet stuffed full of people who have only known the public sector, not one has ever run a business or known the real world. And now it appears that the Chancellor lied on her CV and has exposed her lack of qualification for the role.

I still blame the conservatives. Sunak could have called an election at the end of this month - I think he didn’t because he saw Trump getting into the Whitehouse (all the rational people saw that one coming) and with that Farrage would have made a compelling PM and we would be looking at a Reform government or a coalition with Reform.

 

And we’re off and running full speed back to the 1970’s. 

So, so, so obvious to anyone with half a brain who has run a business in the private sector.

.

[JohnfromUK]

3 minutes ago, Mungler said:

And we’re off and running full speed back to the 1970’s. 

So, so, so obvious to anyone with half a brain who has run a business in the private sector.

.

It was very clear that whilst Reeves called it "a budget for growth", it was always likely (with the hike in NI particularly) to be exactly the reverse.  She should have been honest and said "a budget for recession" ......... but then Labour have always had the usual Parliamentary problem with 'truth'.

[Mungler]

11 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

It was very clear that whilst Reeves called it "a budget for growth", it was always likely (with the hike in NI particularly) to be exactly the reverse.  She should have been honest and said "a budget for recession" ......... but then Labour have always had the usual Parliamentary problem with 'truth'.

You know it.

The reason is it’s so vexing, is because it is so obvious what happens next. 

It all just re-enforces my sheer contempt for the public sector machine.

Everyone should Google each cabinet member and check their CVs and experience - it’s absolutely shocking. Not even the collective experience to run a bath let alone a country.

[TIGHTCHOKE]

17 minutes ago, Mungler said:

You know it.  The reason is it’s so vexing, is because it is so obvious what happens next.  It all just re-enforces my sheer contempt for the public sector machine.  Everyone should Google each cabinet member and check their CVs and experience - it’s absolutely shocking. Not even the collective experience to run a bath let alone a country.

And then they would be.........................

 

 

OUT OF THEIR DEPTH..................

[JohnfromUK]

In today's paper;  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14113537/Budget-hammer-blow-shops-Retail-sales-slumped-0-7-month-jittery-Brits-feared-huge-Labour-tax-raid-business-warning-job-cuts-price-rises-come.html

• Private sector 'shrinking'
• Shops and retail warniing of job cuts
• Spending falling

and we have already had;

• Inflation takes 'unexpected' jump upwards
• Public Sector borrowing much higher
• Bank of England warning interest rates will not fall (as fast)

What shocks me is just how quickly Labour have turned the (admittedly weak) 'upturn' that was happening post Covid trough into a disaster in all areas.

I note that Starmer's 'Chief of Staff' Sue Grey (and very proibably the main architect of Johnson's downfall who was maybe working with a job promise from Labour?) has smartly left the sinking ship of Government, rejecting the latest offer of a post in 'regional affairs) - and Starmer is now suspected of offering a seat in the Lords (large daily attendance allowance for life) in return for her 'services' to Government.

Edited November 22 by JohnfromUK

[armsid]

And we will see NHS spending up but not on patient care but on increased NI costs