matone Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 A parallel example is what happened to Australia,New Zealand and Canada when we dumped them,they`ve found alternative markets for their produce and seem to have survived as nations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KFC Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 If the price is right then there's always a market. As I keep saying, China trades with just about everyone. No EU, no Common Market, just good business. Never going to happen though because there's no such thing as 'honest money' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TIGHTCHOKE Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 If we were lucky enough to be able to get out of this immense white elephant of a union, I would happily endure a few years of hardship while things settled down. The unfortunate thing is we will NEVER be allowed to get out! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Munzy Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 If the price is right then there's always a market. As I keep saying, China trades with just about everyone. Out of the EU we can sell our goods for whatever we want and be competitive BUT will remaining EU countries be taxed on importing our goods thus adding to the cost of buying from the UK and making us uncompetitive? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
69chris Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 with history as a guide and a smidge of luck thrown in the 4th reich with just implode and be nowt but a distant, unpleasent memory in our kids heads, greed, the lust for total power and control and the sheer distaste shown to the public (cattle) by these 'rulers of all the lands' doesnt usually do them so good in the long run Out of the EU we can sell our goods for whatever we want and be competitive BUT will remaining EU countries be taxed on importing our goods thus adding to the cost of buying from the UK and making us uncompetitive? how long would they remain in the eu once they had been reminded that there was still indeed life outside of the union ? it only takes one country to sow the seed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-wheel-drive Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 Timmytree I am not a fan of the EU at all, I just don't know what the cost would be or even if there would be a cost at all. The EU is a cartel and the EU trading zone is our largest export market, so they may well wish to spite the UK and impose trade conditions that make it very unfavourable for us. It really does depend on how unique we are in what we export. For example Scottish whisky is a unique item, so that could likely be continued to be traded without any real impact providing that people want to drink it enough, even although the EU could impose an additional duty on whisky to make it a pound or two more expensive to the EU consumer. Nissan cars made in Sunderland could be an example of the opposite, the EU could make it such that Nissan may be better served by moving their factory to say the Netherlands so we would lose out on thousands of jobs. If the EU collectively has a larger share of business with China then they could potentially do some exclusive trade deals between the two that makes EU sourced products more attractive to the Chinese and damage Britain's trade relationship that way. There are a whole range of situations that we really need to understand what the impact is likely to be before making a decision. The UK is a net consumer of foreign goods and produce, so we buy more than we sell. It can be argued that we also need more from abroad than we produce to sustain our domestic life, so in one sense we need overseas countries more than they need us, but the flip side is that commercially we are a fairly large market so it can be argued that they need us as a customer otherwise they would have much less income. Another piece in that argument is that emerging consumer countries like Brazil or India will take up any slack that Britain might leave, India for example has a consumer market that is ten times the size of the UK so they will have a much greater buying power than the UK alone, but smaller than the EU so it can be argued that in order to compete with these growing powerhouse nations that we need to be part of a bigger buying club. As an example of what I am parping on about, if the level of car ownership in China and India was to grow to the level of car ownership in the Western Europe, then the entire oil output of Saudi Arabia would be needed just to fuel these cars. i.e. demand would outstrip supply. In trade terms if we were to be independent Britain again then we would have much less clout than say an India, China, USA or a combined EU in trying to secure oil for fuel or plastic manufacture. A similar example would be if the level of meat consumption in India and China got to the same level as the western world then it is estimated that a beef burger would cost around $100 as meat would be so scarce. We would globally not be able to produce enough cattle to meet demand so it would become a ridiculous cost. As the UK is a relatively small landmass with a high population density we would not be able to farm enough meat and grow enough crops to satisfy domestic demand and again we would have a weaker voice in trade, so end up paying more in order to get stuff. They are extreme examples to try and illustrate the point. It really isn't a simple decision that can be taken on emotion alone, well at least not without understanding what it might mean for future generations. The countries at the top of the tree were always going to suffer when the massive population countries caught up, so the USA, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. We are so well developed and so expensive as a result that newly developing countries like India where they really don't care about their people would always give us a bloody nose, in trade terms, so the EU is a little bit of a mechanism that softens that blow a little bit. So does a very powerful and advanced military. A final argument is also that being a powerful part of the EU then we can also influence geo-political stability from the inside, although that is a much lesser argument I think. Based purely on emotion I would vote to leave the EU too, but emotion doesn't pay the bills or put food on the table. That was very well put from my limited knowledge we think that is we leave then we can just trade with everyone but life is not so simple take for example the US to have a free trade we have to do what they tell us to in many ways like the EU take our banks for example if they trade with a country that the US does not like then they are made to pay a big fine to them when it is nothing to do with them but if you want to do business in the US you have to play by there rules that is the American way at least in the EU we would stand a chance against the big boys and look on the bright side one day we will all be going to live in Poland. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-wheel-drive Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 A parallel example is what happened to Australia,New Zealand and Canada when we dumped them,they`ve found alternative markets for their produce and seem to have survived as nations. What exactly are there Produce mostly stuff that they dig out of the ground ore and sheep Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timmytree Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 Taking things a step further, if we managed to get out of the EU would that act as a catalyst for others to come out as well? Countries that are in debt to Germany by vast amounts will no doubt be thinking they might be better off going it alone? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TIGHTCHOKE Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 Taking things a step further, if we managed to get out of the EU would that act as a catalyst for others to come out as well? Countries that are in debt to Germany by vast amounts will no doubt be thinking they might be better off going it alone? I think a prime candidate would be the Dutch! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
islandgun Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 That was very well put from my limited knowledge we think that is we leave then we can just trade with everyone but life is not so simple take for example the US to have a free trade we have to do what they tell us to in many ways like the EU take our banks for example if they trade with a country that the US does not like then they are made to pay a big fine to them when it is nothing to do with them but if you want to do business in the US you have to play by there rules that is the American way at least in the EU we would stand a chance against the big boys and look on the bright side one day we will all be going to live in Poland. Looks like there will plenty of space Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nial Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 (edited) Timmytree I am not a fan of the EU at all, I just don't know what the cost would be or even if there would be a cost at all. The EU is a cartel and the EU trading zone is our largest export market, so they may well wish to spite the UK and impose trade conditions that make it very unfavourable for us. It really does depend on how unique we are in what we export. Grr, but as you say the UK buys more from the rest of the EU than they buy from us, they can't afford to impose extra trade tariffs (although that might not stop them). This is quite old (2004) but still very relevent, it's a Civitas assessment of the costs of the EU..... http://www.civitas.org.uk/pdf/cs37.pdf Bottom of page 40.... "Following UK withdrawal, neither the remaining EU nor the UK would be able, under WTO rules on ‘tariff-binding’ (section 3 below), to erect tariff barriers against each other higher than presently exist between the EU (including the UK) and the rest of the world. Nor would they wish to." Trade tariffs with the rest of the world are pretty low. But as I have pointed out before Mexico has a free trade agreement with the EU, bottom of Page 1.... "The benefits of free trade with the EU’s Single Market are available to countries outside the EU through bilateral agree- ments such as the EU-Mexico Free Trade Agreement, with few if any of the legislative and other costs of membership of the Single Market" This would seem to be the ideal solution for the UK. Nial. Edited November 23, 2014 by Nial Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STOTTO Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 All I want is what I actually voted for not this festering bureaucratic self appointed nightmare that is trying to control the way I am supposed to think let alone what I do, and is destroying my heritage KW If you are perhaps unfamiliar with the poem you will surely recognise the scenario! # http://www.poetryloverspage.com/poets/kipling/gods_of_copybook_headings.html As to my position as to in or out, based upon the performance so far I am one of those groping in the dark for the exit and I see a little light above a door that says UKIP! Regards Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grrclark Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 Munzy, I wish that I knew more about it too in order to really understand what the implications might be. For me just now it is a head v's heart argument. I am very much anti the bureaucratic machine that is the EU, I cannot stand how they are unaccountable to the electorate at large and I passionately hate the underlying theme that we have to accept conformance to some artificial amalgam of European identity & values. That is the heart argument The head argument is much less clear for me right now, I can understand why there could and likely would be a lot of potential issues and for the sake of an emotive reason I wouldn't want to vote for future UK generations to be in a worse place, but there is also a big bit of me that thinks we can spend so much time worrying about the if's and but's that we become paralysed through fear. Right now I am tending towards wanting out the EU, but accept there may be strong compelling arguments that might change my mind. Nial, I don't actually know what the full balance of trade between the UK and the rest of EU is, I know they are our largest export market, but not sure if we buy more from them than they do us. If Britain had some strong domestic policies that would help us become more competitive, i.e. doing something to control our ridiculous house price inflation, taking advantage of our surplus capacity in the labour market and developing a school curriculum much more focussed on entrepreneurialism then I would be significantly more confident about exiting the EU as I think that would sew the seeds for a much more optimistic vision for Britain in an increasingly competitive global market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Munzy Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 Munzy, I wish that I knew more about it too in order to really understand what the implications might be. For me just now it is a head v's heart argument. I am very much anti the bureaucratic machine that is the EU, I cannot stand how they are unaccountable to the electorate at large and I passionately hate the underlying theme that we have to accept conformance to some artificial amalgam of European identity & values. That is the heart argument The head argument is much less clear for me right now, I can understand why there could and likely would be a lot of potential issues and for the sake of an emotive reason I wouldn't want to vote for future UK generations to be in a worse place, but there is also a big bit of me that thinks we can spend so much time worrying about the if's and but's that we become paralysed through fear. Right now I am tending towards wanting out the EU, but accept there may be strong compelling arguments that might change my mind. Nial, I don't actually know what the full balance of trade between the UK and the rest of EU is, I know they are our largest export market, but not sure if we buy more from them than they do us. If Britain had some strong domestic policies that would help us become more competitive, i.e. doing something to control our ridiculous house price inflation, taking advantage of our surplus capacity in the labour market and developing a school curriculum much more focussed on entrepreneurialism then I would be significantly more confident about exiting the EU as I think that would sew the seeds for a much more optimistic vision for Britain in an increasingly competitive global market. 100% :good: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matone Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 What exactly are there Produce mostly stuff that they dig out of the ground ore and sheep Lamb,New Zealand butter,wool,fruit,wine(big business),timber and whatever else.We were a major customer and dumped them to deal with our long term enemies in europe ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
islandgun Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 Lamb,New Zealand butter,wool,fruit,wine(big business),timber and whatever else.We were a major customer and dumped them to deal with our long term enemies in europe ! In 1960 the unemployed of NZ numbered 20 and the PM new their names, it still amazes me that they are able to produce legs of lamb that all weigh the same and are sent across the world yet still cost less than home produced lamb, free markets no subsidies shhz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scolopax Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 I am pro European and thus would want to stay within. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TIGHTCHOKE Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 I am pro European and thus would want to stay within. Without any changes to the present set up? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poontang Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 I am pro European and thus would want to stay within. I hate the European project with a passion and would vote at the first opportunity to leave. A trading agreement between the richer nations with similar economies would be fine, but it's nothing more than a social engineering project where the people of the poorer southern European nations are used as a source of cheap labour for the industrialised north. It's a far easier solution for the northern states to have unlimited cheap labour than actually dealing with their problems of poor education, unemployment and welfare. It's a socialists wet dream... and for that very reason should be destroyed at the first opportunity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonker Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 I think this thread needs a poll. I think we got enough of those already. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oisin og Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 Grow up! The Empire is dead and the Commonwealth can no longer function as it once did. Australia and New Zealand look to fellow Pacific ring countries as primary trading partners. Canada is part of a North American conglomerate. The USA (remember them of the special relationship) abhors the thought of an EC without the UK and will make it clear to those who matter that USA foreign policy demands that their special partner remain a player within the EC. The UK outside of the EU will be like a eunach in a harem. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FalconFN Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 I really don't know enough about international trade, business regulations, contributions and rebates to know if we would be better off out of the EU, and a very much doubt whether anyone could possibly know what the benefits or costs would be as there just isn't a comparable example of a country leaving and then attempting to renegotiate agreements. What I do know is that 'in' or 'out' isn't a clear cut as it first seems, we could bash out an agreement that enables us to trade happily with the EU (and indeed we would have to to survive) but without being part of the political union but we would still have to conform to pretty much all of the directives and, like Norway, pay the EU a contribution to be part of the trade area (I believe that Norway's contribution is much higher than ours per capita). Logic does suggest that that would leave us in a very similar economic position but without any say in EU decisions or policy making. I can't see any benefit in that. Having said that, I really am not comfortable with the current political situation in the EU and a solution does seem a long, long way off at best. Unlike others I don't see the EU collapsing any time soon and believe that on the whole a united Europe is a good thing but it is politically pretty far from perfect. Would I vote in or out? Nobody has given me a convincing enough argument for either so until that happens I'll not nail my colours to the mast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TIGHTCHOKE Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 I hate the European project with a passion and would vote at the first opportunity to leave. A trading agreement between the richer nations with similar economies would be fine, but it's nothing more than a social engineering project where the people of the poorer southern European nations are used as a source of cheap labour for the industrialised north. It's a far easier solution for the northern states to have unlimited cheap labour than actually dealing with their problems of poor education, unemployment and welfare. It's a socialists wet dream... and for that very reason should be destroyed at the first opportunity. That was what we joined in the first place! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poontang Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 Grow up! The Empire is dead and the Commonwealth can no longer function as it once did. Australia and New Zealand look to fellow Pacific ring countries as primary trading partners. Canada is part of a North American conglomerate. The USA (remember them of the special relationship) abhors the thought of an EC without the UK and will make it clear to those who matter that USA foreign policy demands that their special partner remain a player within the EC. The UK outside of the EU will be like a eunach in a harem. Are you kidding? The Commonwealth is massively outperforming the EU. Financially and politically the European project is collapsing. As for your remarks about US foreign policy and their 'demands' for us to stay in the EU...well the more we distance ourselves from their foreign policy the better. Unless of course you think the situation in the middle east has brought us peace and prosperity? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
88b Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 (edited) I'd like out ASAP , I guess we will only know if its the right thing in ten years. Switzerland seems to do ok without the EU but surrounded by it. Excellent posts grrclark. Edited November 23, 2014 by 88b Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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