Poland next to leave

[Rewulf]

16 hours ago, scotslad said:

But the problem is that 70 million of trade is shared around all the EU countries, whereas any trade we sell to the EU the whole cost (if any has to be bourne solely by us) or we have to find other markets on our own.

I'm sure the german high end car market will not be happy but as a country wide % it will be far smaller so easier to overcome (if it comes to that) 

 

70 Billion is a lot of money whichever way you want to look at it.
Ive not got the figures to hand, about what % of the entire German car market comes this way, but even if its 10 % thats still a big chunk of business to risk losing, not that I think thats at all likely.

 

12 hours ago, Honey Monster said:

No chance. Poland will not go out.  Maybe will be kicked out some day but will not do it itself by referendum or other way. Situation is similar to UK. Lots of people fed up with EU but also lots of people taking advantage from EU.

Poland being a net beneficiary would indeed be very foolish to vote out.
However, as has been mentioned ,a proud nationalist people wont agree to be pushed around, especially by a power that in some of their citizens lifetimes, tried to steamroller them out of existence.
So how does the EU  MAKE a country tow the line ?
What next ,sanctions, trade embargos ?
Suppose the Poles just say Ok ,well keep the money youve spent on us , were out ?
Then what? Why do you think they want their own EU army ?
And while were at it,again, WHO empowered these people to act in this way ?
Did they just create themselves, and award themselves absolute power over all member European nations, surely not ?

[yod dropper]

If a net contributor (UK) leaves the EU says they have to pay up.  If a net beneficiary (Poland) leaves, does that mean the EU will have to pay them?

[TriBsa]

12 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

Ive not got the figures to hand, about what % of the entire German car market comes this way, but even if its 10 % thats still a big chunk of business to risk losing, not that I think thats at all likely.

14% of production.

[Rewulf]

2 minutes ago, yod dropper said:

If a net contributor (UK) leaves the EU says they have to pay up.  If a net beneficiary (Poland) leaves, does that mean the EU will have to pay them?

Who knows with that lot ? 

6 minutes ago, TriBsa said:

14% of production.

Thanks Tribsa.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2255506/Monumental-deceit-How-politicians-lied-lied-true-purpose-European-behemoth.html#ixzz51bvTsdq5

Thats worth a quick read from 2012.

[Me matt]

12 minutes ago, yod dropper said:

If a net contributor (UK) leaves the EU says they have to pay up.  If a net beneficiary (Poland) leaves, does that mean the EU will have to pay them?

Exactly this.

 

[TriBsa]

Poland is in an awkward position geographically, sandwiched as it is between Germany and Russia. Memories of the events of 1939 when it was carved up by Germany and the USSR mean that it is wary of both neighbours. It needs a security guarantor and upon casting off the shackles of communism, found this in joining the NATO alliance. It will need to tread carefully re EU membership. If it leaves, it would be dependant on NATO for security. But the moves by the EU for it's own army run counter to the interests of NATO. It would seem that Germany no longer wants to play as a small part of an inevitably US lead alliance and France has never joined as a full member. A break up of NATO and an increasingly Asia focussed US in terms of defence with the rise of China would leave Poland very exposed if it had no major allies. Might Germany not want back the 100 miles of territory it ceded to Poland with the movement of the border westward in 1945?

Edited December 21, 2017 by TriBsa

[12gauge82]

14 hours ago, Honey Monster said:

No chance. Poland will not go out.  Maybe will be kicked out some day but will not do it itself by referendum or other way. Situation is similar to UK. Lots of people fed up with EU but also lots of people taking advantage from EU.

Not at all similar situation,Poland takes out far more than it pays in, UK pays far more in than inakes out.

[scotslad]

41 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

70 Billion is a lot of money whichever way you want to look at it.
Ive not got the figures to hand, about what % of the entire German car market comes this way, but even if its 10 % thats still a big chunk of business to risk losing, not that I think thats at all likely.

 

 

Aye 70 billion is a massive amount of cash, but could be shared out throughout possibly by all 26 countries (althou more likely 5-10 will have the vast majorit of the trade)

So while is it a massive amount of trade to risk the risk will be shared  so not quite as bad.

While e have a 70 billion trade decifit any trade we do do (and EU will be our biggest and closest trading partner) any tarrifs/costs will 100% hit UK companies, so could have a biger impact even thou the overall total is smaller.

Also if there is any manufacturing industry left if they have to import raw product from Europe and mainly sell the finished product to Europe are going to be shafted twice.

 

 The german car trade will be spitting about possibly losing 14% of their trade, while that is massive its not in itself devastating, the desiel performance fiddling probably cost them more.

They're will be plenty of UK companies selling 50, 60 or even 80 plus % of their trade with EU countries, which could be devastating.

With the massive influence Germany have it would not surprise me if they broker some special deal purely for themselves and their car industry

 

 

Look I'm all for leaving, infact walking away now would suit me fine, BUT I'm also not naïve/blinkered enough to not see the massive problems leaving will.

Leaving will not solve most off the problems u blame on the EU presently.

many of the remainer make very good points, like most arguments there is always 2 sides but often the truth is somewhere in the middle

 

 

Unfortunately no one is going to be happy with the outcome, remainers obviously don't want to leave, but even the brexit voters won't won't get the deal they want.

U have a parliament/government who couldn't organise a p@@@ up in a brewery and who the majority don't really agree with brexit anyway (not a good combo)

U also have the EU looking to try and shaft us to stop any other countries from even thinking about leaving.

I don't know enough about Poland to know if they really would leave but I do doubt it both due to their security and being a net benefactor and the amount of money sent back from other EU countries

 

At the moment the tories have to suck up to the NI's who they bribed to come on board to keep the government afloat, who also insist on no hard border between Eire.

To keep it that way we must adhere to most of the rules we already do, so nothing will change except we now don't even have any say (not that they listened to us anyway) and we may still end up paying for the privaledge (which also will most likely mean free movement anyway)

[Rewulf]

Thats puts a little perspective on it.

[12gauge82]

47 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

Thats puts a little perspective on it.

+1

[clakk]

3 hours ago, Rewulf said:

Thats puts a little perspective on it.

My fault ,my side steps for my car came from Lithuania 

[scotslad]

No one is disputing we buy more in than we sell.

Bu even if u take the big exporters to us Germany with 25bil and 5-6 others around 10-15 bill, wot % of THERE total exports does that account for?

if u took an absolute worse case scenario and trade almost ceased (or tariffs were so high) it would not be great for those countries but they still have plenty of other options

And I doubt that loss alone would seriously damage the country (even 25 bill) in Germany's case

 

But I bet the UK's total exported to EU is more than 25 billion, we already have 5 to Eire and 3 to sweeden  our trade to EU will be massive and more importantly our % of exports to EU will be very high

All I'm saying is i would far rather be in germany's situation than ours, losing a small % of ur total exports but surrounded by countries u could export to, than ours losing a big % of total exports and very few countries we can realistically start new export trade with (often travel costs, production costs or labour costs) esp quickly 

 

ideally the UK will be forced to become more self suffecient and residents would try to buy british, which at the moment they don't all they want is cheapness.

Plus we hardly make anything ourselves nowadays anyway

 

[old man]

On 20/12/2017 at 16:30, 12gauge82 said:

Yes agreed.

It's also why they're petrified of us leaving.

And that maybe also the reason for the bully boy garbage being thrown our way?

[Rewulf]

20 minutes ago, scotslad said:

No one is disputing we buy more in than we sell.

Bu even if u take the big exporters to us Germany with 25bil and 5-6 others around 10-15 bill, wot % of THERE total exports does that account for?

if u took an absolute worse case scenario and trade almost ceased (or tariffs were so high) it would not be great for those countries but they still have plenty of other options

And I doubt that loss alone would seriously damage the country (even 25 bill) in Germany's case

 

But I bet the UK's total exported to EU is more than 25 billion, we already have 5 to Eire and 3 to sweeden  our trade to EU will be massive and more importantly our % of exports to EU will be very high

All I'm saying is i would far rather be in germany's situation than ours, losing a small % of ur total exports but surrounded by countries u could export to, than ours losing a big % of total exports and very few countries we can realistically start new export trade with (often travel costs, production costs or labour costs) esp quickly 

 

ideally the UK will be forced to become more self suffecient and residents would try to buy british, which at the moment they don't all they want is cheapness.

Plus we hardly make anything ourselves nowadays anyway

 

Sorry Scotslad, but that doesnt make sense.
Besides the fact that its not going to happen anyway, no industry, even a German one, can take losses like that.
The knock on effect would be catastrophic.
You say we dont make anything ?
We must make something, or we wouldnt have the economy we have, are we still 5th largest still?
Its not to be sneered at, we are a strong powerful nation, no, not as powerful as we once were, but hopefully if we can extract ourselves cleanly from the static, clingy mud of the EU, we can be better.

Edited December 21, 2017 by Rewulf

[12gauge82]

Besides if EU country's really did cut ties with us and stop trading (which won't happen, theyd sink), we can trade with the rest of the world which is where 75% of the worlds trade happens, itd be their loss not ours.

Edited December 21, 2017 by 12gauge82

[scotslad]

Germany's trade with UK is only 6.6% of their total  export, while still a big amountto lose  it's not devestating

UK's export to the EU is 43%of our total or 240 billion.

 

While any tariff's no matter wot they are will have an impact on Germany and the other countries but its still shared by all the countries who export to us, but they WILL have a far bigger impact on us, esp if ur factory/company imports a raw material/parts from the EU and sells the finished product to them.

 

Sorry but i do struggle to see how we can dramatically increase our trade with the rest of the world, just the logistics and labour/production costs in the UK will often price us out the market

If it was so easy why have we not done it before now.

 

[12gauge82]

56 minutes ago, scotslad said:

Germany's trade with UK is only 6.6% of their total  export, while still a big amountto lose  it's not devestating

UK's export to the EU is 43%of our total or 240 billion.

 

While any tariff's no matter wot they are will have an impact on Germany and the other countries but its still shared by all the countries who export to us, but they WILL have a far bigger impact on us, esp if ur factory/company imports a raw material/parts from the EU and sells the finished product to them.

 

Sorry but i do struggle to see how we can dramatically increase our trade with the rest of the world, just the logistics and labour/production costs in the UK will often price us out the market

If it was so easy why have we not done it before now.

 

We've got great links with ex commonwealth country's, the figures speak for themselves, the EU is the slowest growing trading block in the world.

[das]

On 20/12/2017 at 17:26, 12gauge82 said:

The EU is up to its old tricks again, Barnier has stated no transition deal will go beyond December 2019, trying to ruin the UK economy, we should just walk taking our 40 odd billion pounds with us!

Well said. That amount of money could be very well  spent here at home.

[das]

7 hours ago, Rewulf said:

Who knows with that lot ? 

Thanks Tribsa.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2255506/Monumental-deceit-How-politicians-lied-lied-true-purpose-European-behemoth.html#ixzz51bvTsdq5

Thats worth a quick read from 2012.

This is a frightening read. Talk about a huge scam on a grand scale.

Edited December 21, 2017 by das
spelling

[Newbie to this]

1 hour ago, scotslad said:

If it was so easy why have we not done it before now.

We used to before we joint the common market, and had to stop because it breached our agreement with the common market.

[scotslad]

54 minutes ago, 12gauge82 said:

We've got great links with ex commonwealth country's, the figures speak for themselves, the EU is the slowest growing trading block in the world.

I really hope ur right but I'm no where near as optimistic as ur self,  just the logistics themselves will make things harder more expensive

 Aye but that would be back in the 70's, sadly times have changed since then.

Back then UK would still be a real powerhouse of industry, still making cars, steel, ship yards etc and all owned by UK companies, now most of that is gone.

Also most of these commonwealth countries have now came on leaps and bounds in that 50 years.

 

I really can't see Oz or NZ buying much from us, both very proud nations who tend to buy there own stuff if they can, india probably sells us more stuff nowadays than us to it.

Even taking many jobs away from UK now, and with ur cheap labour in the far east

[oowee]

I have said this before, post EU any trade with the rest of the world MUST BE selective. We don't want a free trade deal with the rest of the world, (some exceptions) US beef and GM modified cereals or beef from Argentina are examples, as open trade would destroy much of the industry we have. So we impose barriers to protect ourselves so trade outside of the EU will be naturaly more difficult.

On WTO our export and import prices go up. The increased cost of content together with tariff to export makes our products less competitive so we sell less at lower profit. We buy less german cars as they will increase in price. Companies move finished product to major markets (within the EU) . We cut wages living costs, increase mechanisation and try to increase competitiveness. High added value products and services will be Ok but we will still need to find a way of attracting and keeping high knowledge students. 

[12gauge82]

58 minutes ago, scotslad said:

I really hope ur right but I'm no where near as optimistic as ur self,  just the logistics themselves will make things harder more expensive

 Aye but that would be back in the 70's, sadly times have changed since then.

Back then UK would still be a real powerhouse of industry, still making cars, steel, ship yards etc and all owned by UK companies, now most of that is gone.

Also most of these commonwealth countries have now came on leaps and bounds in that 50 years.

 

I really can't see Oz or NZ buying much from us, both very proud nations who tend to buy there own stuff if they can, india probably sells us more stuff nowadays than us to it.

Even taking many jobs away from UK now, and with ur cheap labour in the far east

Have a look on YouTube for a speech by the OZ pm, they were one of the first to come out and say they were ready to do trade with us as soon as we were. Half the world won' trade with the EU because of their protectionist agenda, these country's are despeate to strike new free trade deals.

Here's a quick link http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-10/australia-wants-a-free-trade-deal-with-the-uk-asap-after-brexit/8695590?pfmredir=sm

[12gauge82]

22 minutes ago, oowee said:

I have said this before, post EU any trade with the rest of the world MUST BE selective. We don't want a free trade deal with the rest of the world, (some exceptions) US beef and GM modified cereals or beef from Argentina are examples, as open trade would destroy much of the industry we have. So we impose barriers to protect ourselves so trade outside of the EU will be naturaly more difficult.

On WTO our export and import prices go up. The increased cost of content together with tariff to export makes our products less competitive so we sell less at lower profit. We buy less german cars as they will increase in price. Companies move finished product to major markets (within the EU) . We cut wages living costs, increase mechanisation and try to increase competitiveness. High added value products and services will be Ok but we will still need to find a way of attracting and keeping high knowledge students. 

No disrespect but you so obviously have a personal agenda linked with remaining in the EU, I'm not saying it's wrong I expect like all of us you have family to supprtb ect but you can't expect everyone to vote remain on that basis.

[Walker570]

I remember us having to dump New Zealand because of the constraints of the EU, a country which fought tooth and nail and who's men spilt blood for us. I was there in 1991 and I have to say they seemed to be doing OK.  They did their homework saw a big market next door in Japan, China and the Far Eastern countries and started to produce goods they could sell there from fruit to slices of antler. 

About time we dumped the EU and went back cap in hand, although that seems unnecessary as the Kiwis have already said they want to have a deal with us.

The unelected Leeches in Brussels have now treated the proud Polish people like naughty schoolchildren, invoking Article 7.  They should send it back and tell them to stuff it where the sun don't shine.