future of farming

[oowee]

There are a number of big pressures on UK farming for change and it's reasonable to anticipate big changes in farming practices over the next few years within the UK. These changes will no doubt have a significant impact on our sport and it would be interesting to hear thoughts on the subject. 

If I can kick off with a few. The area around here is big on dairy and I understand whilst the price of milk has maybe improved for some there are still big disparities. There are still farmers saying that the price of milk is below that needed to sustain business. Coupled with a continual over supply and excess capacity going to the EU there must surely be huge pressure to aggregate farm land, for efficiency and reduce capacity. Given the high cost of farm land relative to the returns surely we could expect many small dairy farmers to stop production.

Withe the demise of the EU subsidies the Government is committed to maintaining the existing payments structure for a further two years with then a shift to environmental investment. It may be too early to say if that will continue but greater set aside and diversity planting must be great news for the future of wildlife and in particular stalking in the UK.

The move to vegetarian (20% of population 16 to 24) and veganism (360% increase in 10 years to 540k) must be having big impacts on the type of food we eat. As we strike world wide deals there is likely to be pressure to take lower cost meats whether that be beef and chicken from the states (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47036119) to lamb from NZ which must put pressure on UK farms to either chase efficiency or swap production out of meat.

 

[Scully]

None of the farmers I know ( and I know many ) seem unduly concerned, whether they be beef or milk, and all without exception voted to leave the EU; after all, the subsidies they receive is OUR money anyhow. They like the idea of set aside and always have, and as you say it can only be good news for shooters if re-introduced. 

Chicken production ( and especially that of eggs ) is on the increase around here if the numbers of specialist erected buildings are anything to go by. Many will diversify, as they already do. 

[tonker]

Change, adapt, diversify and life goes on, as it has for hundreds of years. Farming is a way of life not a job. 😊.

[Yellow Bear]

1 minute ago, tonker said:

Change, adapt, diversify and life goes on, as it has for hundreds of years. Farming is a way of life not a job. 😊.

Exactly.

Veganism may have increased 10 fold but still accounts for less than 1% of the population, it is a first world fad, and over 50% of the recognized foodstuffs they consume has to be imported as it will not grow here.   They  also rely greatly on "manufactured" supplements and materials.

Vegetarianism may be high in the age group you give but based on personal contacts over the last 15 years or so the vast majority have resorted to omnivore before they are 30.

I very much doubt that either of these will become a main player by peoples choice.

[Lord v]

2 minutes ago, Yellow Bear said:

Exactly.

Veganism may have increased 10 fold but still accounts for less than 1% of the population, it is a first world fad, and over 50% of the recognized foodstuffs they consume has to be imported as it will not grow here.   They  also rely greatly on "manufactured" supplements and materials.

Vegetarianism may be high in the age group you give but based on personal contacts over the last 15 years or so the vast majority have resorted to omnivore before they are 30.

I very much doubt that either of these will become a main player by peoples choice.

+1

Veganism is nigh impossible to sustain in this country without imports. Ever tried growing quinoa in Glasgow ? 

Farmers will diversify, it tends to make the land more efficient. 

The environmental subsidies are very interesting. I am a big fan of natural flood management and this is a genuinely an excellent opportunity to get ahead of the curve. 

[RockySpears]

2 hours ago, oowee said:

lamb from NZ

  Just discussed this with the wife last night;  How the hell is it possible to raise lambs, then ship/fly them to the UK in bits and STILL be cheaper? 

NZ has as high, if not higher living standards than the UK.  HOW can they do this and make a profit?  Same for Danish Bacon.

As far as farming (and anything else for that matter) goes, I am against any and all "subsidies", if you can't make a profit from it, don't grow/raise it.  If the Gov. thinks we should have spare capacity in land, for a future scenario of needing to grow more of our own foodstuffs, then fine, no objection to a farmer being paid to have land spare in the system and recieving money for that.  That is not a subsidy, that would seem to be prudent emergency planning, I expect that of Gov.  If there are any areas where a landowner must do something he otherwise would not do; hedging, dtch digging, culvert clearance - whatever, this too would seem a piece of work the Gov. should pay for.

  Not looking to annoy farmers etc, but if something is not profitable, it should be changed, just like other businesses, and yes, I think farming to be a business.

 

RS

[islandgun]

1 hour ago, tonker said:

Change, adapt, diversify and life goes on, as it has for hundreds of years. Farming is a way of life not a job. 😊.

Spot on.. personally I hope there will be a move towards less intensive meat production, with quality more important than quantity. game consumption increasing..😋 larger numbers of vegetarians is inevitable and they will want home grown veg, as opposed to exotic veg flown in from thousands of miles away, or Brazilian rainforest slash and burnt to grow soy.. veganism as said, a first world food fad, should decrease when people realise that there is a lot to be said for farm animals and the biodiversity they help improve 

[Retsdon]

7 minutes ago, RockySpears said:

How the hell is it possible to raise lambs, then ship/fly them to the UK in bits and STILL be cheaper? 

An average low ground flock size of between 5,000 - 7,000 animals; stocking rates of 7- 10 per hectare with all grass wintering - in other words scale and conditions. I know when I was in the game, I was getting between 38- 45 quid a head for a fat lamb off the grass and after costs I was struggling to get by with a ewe flock of 250. My shearers told be that in New Zealand I'd of been getting about 15 quid a lamb. It's a different world.

2 hours ago, tonker said:

Change, adapt, diversify and life goes on, as it has for hundreds of years. Farming is a way of life not a job. 😊.

Diversify into what, exactly? I'm curious.

[CharlieT]

1 hour ago, Scully said:

None of the farmers I know ( and I know many ) seem unduly concerned, whether they be beef or milk, and all without exception voted to leave the EU; after all, the subsidies they receive is OUR money anyhow. They like the idea of set aside and always have, and as you say it can only be good news for shooters if re-introduced. 

Chicken production ( and especially that of eggs ) is on the increase around here if the numbers of specialist erected buildings are anything to go by. Many will diversify, as they already do. 

I am another who voted to leave and the sooner the better.

I do feel that, as a country, we should do all we can to maximise  food security and it does worry me that agri subsidies have been shifted and continue to shift from production to environmental payments. What is really needed is a balance between the two where payments are only made if it is demonstrated that flora and fauna are not unduly impacted.

What really gets my goat is non farming enterprise subsidy payments, such as the RSPB, being included under the broad umbrella of agri subsidies.

We are now suffering from the 1947 Agricultural Act, which saw the introduction of farm subsidies as a means to, and I quote, "promoting and maintaining.., a stable and efficient agricultural industry capable of producing such part of the nation's food and other agricultural produce as in the national interest it is desirable to produce in the United Kingdom, and of producing it at minimal prices consistently with proper remuneration and living conditions for farmers and workers in agriculture and an adequate return on capital invested in the industry'.

We now find ourself in a position where government policy has ensured prices have been kept artificially low for 70 years. Yet the public by and large clamor for an end to subsidies, demand high welfare standards, but are quite happy to buy cheap imported produce from countries where producers do not have our high welfare standards.

 

 

 

[mudpatten]

During the second world war Great Britain was significantly more self sufficient than it is today. The thought occurs to me that post Brexit, changes in food availability could actually result in an unexpected health, and accompanying financial, benefit to our increasingly obese population.

During WW2 there were almost no fat people in the U.K. Think of the savings that would mean to the NHS. Changes in the cost of food would also see the end of food fads like veganism which would become prohibitively expensive.

But seriously, a recent statement from a consortium of supermarkets stated that, for instance, 80% of our lettuce comes from the EU and that there would be a shortage post No Deal Brexit. I`m not sure how long I could survive without lettuce - probably for ever - but there would seem to be many areas of diversification open to the farming community if/when shortages/stoppages occur in the current supply chain.

And lets not forget that the EU producer of whatever foodstuff is in short supply here, will also be going bankrupt and appling significant pressure on their own government to deal with the whole Brexit thing like grown ups. The French farming community, with its willingness to resort to anarchy, could be one of our biggest allies in destroying the EU.

[oowee]

I am amazed that the cost of NZ lamb can be so low after shipping. I make a point of buying welsh but cannot believe that is relatively so expensive. 

I hear what is said about vegetarians but when I go into the supermarket the meat section is definitely smaller than it was. Some of this is down to the growth of the ready meal section. 

I cannot believe that the number of small dairies can continue life style or not. I know two that are coming to the end of the line with no buyers for running dairy there just is not the money in it? 

diversification must be the way forward and we are starting to see a growth in fuel crops here particularly that elephant grass. 

[Retsdon]

4 minutes ago, mudpatten said:

The French farming community, with its willingness to resort to anarchy, could be one of our biggest allies in destroying the EU.

French farmers know where the money comes from! Quite honestly, I think British farmers are far too sanguine about the CAP tap being shut off. Not only do they lose free access to a massive 'local' market, but they lose the clout of belonging to a significant pan-European political force. EU agricultural subsidies are as much political bribes as anything else, paid to keep votes in rural areas onside. Larger British farmers who are far fewer in number have no such political value. 

[mudpatten]

All very true. But a barn full of unsold, rotten lettuce and an empty wallet might well make farmer Pierre think differently.

Edited January 30, 2019 by mudpatten

[Scully]

44 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

 

Diversify into what, exactly? I'm curious.

One of the farms I shoot on didn't rebuild his dairy herd following the last bout of F&M; he now travels europe vowing and selecting specimens for Belgian and British Blues. They have converted some land into hard standing for static caravans and tourers which bring in good money.

Another two dairy farmers have done the same with tourism in mind, some have land rented to wind turbine companies and solar energy companies, and others are growing for biomass. Many run small haulage or plant businesses. 

One started by selling mulch and shavings to B&Q; he's a multimillionaire now.

Even Fell bottom hill sheep farmers are diversifying into the tourism business. Like I said, I don't know any who are overly concerned. 

 

[Vince Green]

The farmers in our family are rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of a hard brexit. If it means an end to the EU dumping its food surpluses in this country. Yes food prices will go up, but they will go up to the true market price for produce and the money will stay in this country. The EU farmers over produce because they grow food purely to earn subsidies and  they have no prospect of selling it in their home market

There is something very wrong with things when you can walk into a supermarket in this country and buy Spanish cucumbers for 50p. I don't suppose many people have ever questioned it very deeply, why would you?  but its dumping and it bankrupts the british producers. Same with tomatoes and a lot of dairy produce.  

Edited January 30, 2019 by Vince Green

[Retsdon]

3 minutes ago, mudpatten said:

But a barn full of unsold, rotten lettuce and an empty wallet might well make farmer Pierre think differently

Well, if he protests enough the EU will pay him not to grow lettuce. Simples. It's set aside, no?

[Vince Green]

1 minute ago, Retsdon said:

Well, if he protests enough the EU will pay him not to grow lettuce. Simples. It's set aside, no?

The agricultural subsidy had done untold damage over the years. Its basically corrupt in its initial concept (a straightforward bribe to French farmers) but it has morphed into a huge racket

[Retsdon]

2 minutes ago, Vince Green said:

Yes food prices will go up, but they will go up to the true market price for produce and the money will stay in this country.

The true market price is the price you can buy it for and there's plenty of farm produce on the global market, most of it priced cheaper than British farmers can grow it. Are you suggesting that a British government of any hue will preside over a spike in food prices while 'millionaire' farmers take advantage of shortages? Imagine the headlines. It's never going to happen.

[oowee]

Thought we might talk more about farming than the EU. 

Any idea why UK lamb is so much more expensive than that from NZ? Is it simply a matter of scale? 

15 minutes ago, Scully said:

 

Even Fell bottom hill sheep farmers are diversifying into the tourism business. Like I said, I don't know any who are overly concerned. 

 

 

[Vince Green]

2 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

The true market price is the price you can buy it for and there's plenty of farm produce on the global market, most of it priced cheaper than British farmers can grow it. Are you suggesting that a British government of any hue will preside over a spike in food prices while 'millionaire' farmers take advantage of shortages? Imagine the headlines. It's never going to happen.

The true market price is the cost without subsidies.

[Rewulf]

18 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

Well, if he protests enough the EU will pay him not to grow lettuce. Simples. It's set aside, no?

Probably still grow it anyway, then put it on the market for even less.

 

4 minutes ago, oowee said:

Thought we might talk more about farming than the EU. 

The two are intrinsically linked now, after Brexit, I believe UK farming (if the will is there) will come into its own.
We import half of our vegetables from the EU , most of which could be grown here, you have to ask yourself why this is .

 

[Scully]

14 minutes ago, oowee said:

Thought we might talk more about farming than the EU. 

 

 

I’m not sure you can. Ask any farmer the questions you have and they’ll inevitably mention the EU. 

Edited January 30, 2019 by Scully

[CharlieT]

5 minutes ago, oowee said:

Thought we might talk more about farming than the EU. 

Any idea why UK lamb is so much more expensive than that from NZ? Is it simply a matter of scale? 

 

 

Interestingly, there has been a drop in NZ lamb imports in recent years, although in the past couple of years their competitiveness has rallied. However, to answer your question. Favorable exchange rates, warmer climate resulting in a longer grazing season and the ability to breed for much of the year resulting in reduced labor and feed imputs.

Another interesting point is that we, as a nation, export more lamb than we import from NZ.

[oowee]

4 minutes ago, CharlieT said:

 

Interestingly, there has been a drop in NZ lamb imports in recent years, although in the past couple of years their competitiveness has rallied. However, to answer your question. Favorable exchange rates, warmer climate resulting in a longer grazing season and the ability to breed for much of the year resulting in reduced labor and feed imputs.

Another interesting point is that we, as a nation, export more lamb than we import from NZ.

I never knew that. So British lamb at a premium then. Where is it going?

Is it the same with Bacon? I struggle to buy British. 

[Rewulf]

4 minutes ago, CharlieT said:

Another interesting point is that we, as a nation, export more lamb than we import from NZ.

Which is indeed interesting, do some countries discern a different taste ?
Why pay for transportation costs, with all that environmental impact we always told about ?

Like potatoes, we export, and import potatoes too, whats that all about ?