walshie Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 I've yet to see an accurate forecast. Any time I look, they have changed it to try and suit current conditions, but still get it wrong. Just this year, the 2 big "weather events" were forecast totally an utterly wrong. The "Heavy snow, high winds, don't travel unless absolutely necessary" turned out to be no snow, no wind and a fairly sunny day. Yesterdays Storm Freya scaremongering of 80 mph winds, lashing rain and structural damage turned out to be no wind, no rain, a bit grey but fairly warm. Today we are supposed to be having rain and strong winds, but I've been doing stuff outside enjoying the brilliant sunshine and lovely blue skies. I could forecast better than that lot using my seaweed and looking out of the window. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Walker570 Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 (edited) I use the BBC forecast on the computer and must say it is usually pretty accurate. My nearest point is Atherstone which sits under a steep ridge and we are some 5 miles away as the crow flies and often I can see weather going over the town which we are not getting. Looking at the forecast yesterday, most of the serious high wind seemed to be north of us and this morning I was just 11 miles north west of our position and they had wind they could hardly stand up in, wherehas we had around 30mph. I would say it is very difficult to give very precise forecasts within even a few miles as like Atherstone under a high ridge of land they seem to get the rain/slet and snow when we don't. A bit of a chill breeze here today but quite pleasant. Edited March 4, 2019 by Walker570 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
walshie Posted March 4, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 The nearest town the BBC recognise is about 2 miles from here and they get exactly the same weather as us. I can understand minor discrepancies, but you can't get any more inaccurate than complete opposites. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldypigeonpopper Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 hello, i do not find the weather forecast accurate with the BBC red button, much better on my phone with updates every hour, i was going shooting tomorrow as forcast wet tonight, now changed to dry and sunny with good cloud and yes its hissing down tomorrow, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dekers Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 I love the way the 10 day forecast changes every day as it edges closer, and is commonly nothing like what it started when it eventually arrives. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackstone Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 It's almost as if it's not a trivial matter to model and predict the fluid dynamics of the atmosphere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dekers Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 Anyway, I have people pestering me for fox and rabbit work over the next few days and whichever forecast you look at, the next few days are not looking good, so that may get shelved to next week! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clakk Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 I so enjoy 3x weather reports 1 after the other when the news ends .Why do we need so many that are so often wrong . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
walshie Posted March 4, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 1 hour ago, Blackstone said: It's almost as if it's not a trivial matter to model and predict the fluid dynamics of the atmosphere. It's their job. I wish I could get away with doing my job so poorly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TIGHTCHOKE Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 Perhaps they should only get paid when they get it correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dekers Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 1 minute ago, TIGHTCHOKE said: Perhaps they should only get paid when they get it correct. Applications for the job would dry up pretty quick! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
walshie Posted March 4, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 29 minutes ago, TIGHTCHOKE said: Perhaps they should only get paid when they get it correct. I hope they can manage on £15.25 a year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turbo33 Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 Well I have to disagree. Whilst I am the BBC,s least loyal supporter, for me, here, you can pretty much set your clock by it. If I just look at the generic forecast, it’s a hit and miss. Abut put my location in, or that of the farms I intend to visit, and it’s bang on accurate. Today for example,heavy rain was forecast at 13,00hrs, fine dry and sunny at 12.45. At 13.15, the skies went black, and it absolutely hissed down, with some hail .i am really impressed by the BBC weather forecast and rely on its accuracy for my work. I’d say it’s 90% accurate for me. Just my experiences Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Walker570 Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 3 minutes ago, turbo33 said: Well I have to disagree. Whilst I am the BBC,s least loyal supporter, for me, here, you can pretty much set your clock by it. If I just look at the generic forecast, it’s a hit and miss. Abut put my location in, or that of the farms I intend to visit, and it’s bang on accurate. Today for example,heavy rain was forecast at 13,00hrs, fine dry and sunny at 12.45. At 13.15, the skies went black, and it absolutely hissed down, with some hail .i am really impressed by the BBC weather forecast and rely on its accuracy for my work. I’d say it’s 90% accurate for me. Just my experiences Plus 1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grandalf Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 4 hours ago, Blackstone said: It's almost as if it's not a trivial matter to model and predict the fluid dynamics of the atmosphere. This. Put a pan of water one the cooker hob and bring it to the boil. Now try to predict where and when the first bubble will appear. You will, of course, be wrong. Now that you have experience - Empty the pan. Refill it and try again. You will be wrong again. After several hundred attempts you will be getting better but nowhere near 100%. If you were you would be an ace at forecasting showers. Fog is much harder. You know fog is going to appear but try and forecast where and how dense. It is almost impossible unless you use general terms like "There will be fog patches in the Eastern Counties of the UK". It is an artform backed by science and computer models. They do there best. Short term for a specific area works fairly well but anything beyond a maximum of three days will only ever be a general picture of the probabilities. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
team tractor Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 My customer who’s a pilot uses this app. It’s really not bad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
walshie Posted March 4, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 (edited) 17 minutes ago, Grandalf said: This. Put a pan of water one the cooker hob and bring it to the boil. Now try to predict where and when the first bubble will appear. You will, of course, be wrong. Now that you have experience - Empty the pan. Refill it and try again. You will be wrong again. After several hundred attempts you will be getting better but nowhere near 100%. If you were you would be an ace at forecasting showers. Fog is much harder. You know fog is going to appear but try and forecast where and how dense. It is almost impossible unless you use general terms like "There will be fog patches in the Eastern Counties of the UK". It is an artform backed by science and computer models. They do there best. Short term for a specific area works fairly well but anything beyond a maximum of three days will only ever be a general picture of the probabilities. I never said it was easy. They've proved many times just how hard it must be. I 'm just surprised they can get it so wrong so often As per my examples, it wasn't just the rain started at the wrong time, it was just 100% wrong. The complete opposite of what actually happened. On the "heavy snow day" it was still showing as heavy snow and cold when it was bright, sunny, and warm, so not even a forecast, just bad observation. Maybe it's where I live but you can pretty much guarantee the forecast will be wrong more days than it's right. I could guess what it's going to be like here and have a higher hit rate. Edited March 4, 2019 by walshie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoolinDalton Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 My Dear Ol' Dad used to say to the neighbours, ''It's gonna be 22 degrees tomorrow'' to which they'd go ''Oooohh, lovely''.........then he'd finish it with ''Yeh, 11 in the morning and 11 in the afternoon!''. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DUNKS Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 Must really be the best job in the world. "weather forecasting" Everyone expects you to cock it up and you get praise when on the rare occasion you do get it right.😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amateur Posted March 5, 2019 Report Share Posted March 5, 2019 There was a reason why the Luftwaffe in WW2 referred to weather forecasters as falscher Prophetten Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
walshie Posted March 5, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 5, 2019 Today's forecast: Heavy rain and moderate breeze. Actual weather. No rain, no breeze and sunny. Not bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TIGHTCHOKE Posted March 5, 2019 Report Share Posted March 5, 2019 Just now, walshie said: Today's forecast: Heavy rain and moderate breeze. Actual weather. No rain, no breeze and sunny. Not bad. Do what we do, look at the forecast, ignore it and get out there! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
walshie Posted March 5, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 5, 2019 1 minute ago, TIGHTCHOKE said: Do what we do, look at the forecast, ignore it and get out there! I was out there, which is how I know. Worked up quite a sweat between tea breaks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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