Long term effects of Coronavirus

[Mungler]

9 hours ago, Lloyd90 said:

I have been thinking that for ages. 
 

We are in major lockdown, huge restrictions in place. Whilst not everyone is following it a lot of the population are. 
 

People are saying deaths are supposedly just as bad as normal ... but that’s with vast numbers of people not going out of their homes.

 

Would the deaths still be the same if we had just carried on as normal? 
 

Or would the same people who are criticising lockdown and saying we should go back to normal, be criticising the Government for not locking down and saying how they have killed a load of people?! 

Nope.

We learn just as much about this virus not from those who have died (albeit that identifies the over 65’s as the most at risk demographic) but those who have had it and survived.

We have over 3,500,000 recorded cases of people getting it. Further, we know that of those 3,500,000 cases a very large proportion were motivated to search out a test for a reason ie they felt unwell, and so there’s a large chunk of people who have had it asymptomatically and whose infections are not recorded in those figures. If you wanted my best guess it’s probably rinsed through the under 30’s without them knowing it - they’re fit and young, when they were allowed out they were socialising or they were at school and mixing. All 3 of my kids have had it asymptomatically like this (and via school) and their infections are not recorded in those figures.

I have just found this; they reckon 1 in 8 have had it. https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/covid-19-one-in-eight-had-coronavirus-in-england-by-december-last-year-survey-estimates-12192323
 

With a population of 70,000,000, 1 in 8 gets you 8,750,000 cases. The current Covid death toll (mainly compromised over the over 80’s) is 90,000 in round numbers.

So, without making any distinction for age, the bald stats say that it’s 1000-1 you’ll die. 

In some cases, Spanish flu took out 20% of a country’s population making it 5-1 you’ll die.

My view remains that this is a pandemic for the over 65s and those who are already on a wobbly wicket.

.

Edit:

It’s 1000-1 not 100-1

Edited January 22, 2021 by Mungler

[Lloyd90]

1 hour ago, Mungler said:

Nope.

We learn just as much about this virus not from those who have died (albeit that identifies the over 65’s as the most at risk demographic) but those who have had it and survived.

We have over 3,500,000 recorded cases of people getting it. Further, we know that of those 3,500,000 cases a very large proportion were motivated to search out a test for a reason ie they felt unwell, and so there’s a large chunk of people who have had it asymptomatically and whose infections are not recorded in those figures. If you wanted my best guess it’s probably rinsed through the under 30’s without them knowing it - they’re fit and young, when they were allowed out they were socialising or they were at school and mixing. All 3 of my kids have had it asymptomatically like this (and via school) and their infections are not recorded in those figures.

I have just found this; they reckon 1 in 8 have had it. https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/covid-19-one-in-eight-had-coronavirus-in-england-by-december-last-year-survey-estimates-12192323
 

With a population of 70,000,000, 1 in 8 gets you 8,750,000 cases. The current Covid death toll (mainly compromised over the over 80’s) is 90,000 in round numbers.

So, without making any distinction for age, the bald stats say that it’s 100-1 you’ll die. 

In some cases, Spanish flu took out 20% of a country’s population making it 5-1 you’ll die.

My view remains that this is a pandemic for the over 65s and those who are already on a wobbly wicket.

.

 

Fair enough. 
 

Did your buy the Covid anti body test yourself? 
 

I’d like to try one, if you can point me in their direction.

 

thanks 

[Rewulf]

2 hours ago, Lloyd90 said:

I’d like to try one, if you can point me in their direction.

Ive just booked one at a BUPA clinic for next thursday.

15 min result, £65

[Raja Clavata]

I'd heard these tests are showing > 10% having antibodies but that is of course open to interpretation.

[Mungler]

We used the Abbexa blood drop rapid test kit. 

[Scully]

It does make me wonder at times if I’m missing something here. 
The NHS is at breaking point yet again ( it has been since March apparently ) and we now have S.African and Brazilian strains which are even more deadly than the original, being less susceptible to vaccines, yet we still aren’t using the Nightingale venues as far as I’m aware. 
We have elite sportsmen flying to Australia from all over the world for a game of tennis, where entire plane loads have had to isolate because one or two tested positive, yet there are some Australians not allowed to return home because of the virus.
We have elite footballers climbing into coaches each weekend, from at least eleven different families, and travelling to kick a ball around with another team from at least another eleven families, all spitting and hockling and hugging each other after rolling around in it. The same goes for each team of fifteen rugby players, all from fifteen different families, to whom they return each day. 
Basketball is still going on as is cricket and as far as I’m aware the F1 circus is about to fire up again. 
Meanwhile, someone earlier today told me I shouldn’t be travelling to one of my perms to shoot on my own. 😂 Yeah, right. 
 

[Mungler]

It’s probably because all these sports people are under the age of 40 fit as you like and stand zero chance of being affected by this virus.

How many times have we heard of a footballer, an F1 driver or tennis player getting Covid? Every day? Every week?

Not one ends up in hospital. 

[Lloyd90]

19 minutes ago, Scully said:

It does make me wonder at times if I’m missing something here. 
The NHS is at breaking point yet again ( it has been since March apparently ) and we now have S.African and Brazilian strains which are even more deadly than the original, being less susceptible to vaccines, yet we still aren’t using the Nightingale venues as far as I’m aware. 
We have elite sportsmen flying to Australia from all over the world for a game of tennis, where entire plane loads have had to isolate because one or two tested positive, yet there are some Australians not allowed to return home because of the virus.
We have elite footballers climbing into coaches each weekend, from at least eleven different families, and travelling to kick a ball around with another team from at least another eleven families, all spitting and hockling and hugging each other after rolling around in it. The same goes for each team of fifteen rugby players, all from fifteen different families, to whom they return each day. 
Basketball is still going on as is cricket and as far as I’m aware the F1 circus is about to fire up again. 
Meanwhile, someone earlier today told me I shouldn’t be travelling to one of my perms to shoot on my own. 😂 Yeah, right. 
 

 

The NHS are massively under staffed with nurses and other professionals without having to suddenly man a huge number of other hospitals as well.

 

I believe it’s been a publicised that those nightingale hospitals don’t have the staff to run. 
 

My friend the ICU nurse said she had some army staff in to train how to look after people. They didn’t know the most basic stuff, she said they were young lads about 18-21, and they told her they came to her unit to have a look what it’s like. 
 

 

ICU beds which are usually 1:1 staffed and very well equipped (I’ve been on them) are being adapted to have 2:1 or even more per nurse on each station. 
 

It’s easier to try and double the capacity of the ICU wards than split the staff in half. 
 

 

 

I imagine if we get to the point of the nightingale hospitals being used they will be for people who we don’t have capacity to treat and they just go there to be given very minimal care that say a soldier can provide. You’ll lie in the bed being given food and drink and it you make it your out and if you don’t they wheel out to the temporary morgue they have set up round the back. 
 

The local hospital, has army in again trying to help with all sorts. I spoke with the admin I know today from when I used to work there, she said it’s frightening having them in as it’s a sign of just how bad things are. 

[AVB]

My sources say the biggest shortage is amongst cleaners and porters as many are ‘self isolating’. 

[Mice!]

43 minutes ago, Scully said:

yet we still aren’t using the Nightingale venues as far as I’m aware. 

I doubt they have the staff to run them, I thought the army/forces would be needed to run them, it's got to be a last chance saloon. 

45 minutes ago, Scully said:

We have elite sportsmen flying to Australia from all over the world for a game of tennis, where entire plane loads have had to isolate because one or two tested positive, yet there are some Australians not allowed to return home because of the virus.
We have elite footballers climbing into coaches each weekend, from at least eleven different families, and travelling to kick a ball around with another team from at least another eleven families,

I think sport is only carrying on because so many watch it (tryingtokeepthe masses happy), but I see no point in teams travelling abroad. 

Your right about them then returning home to their families but I'd hope the whole squads/ backroom staff are being tested a few times a week.

You would think the likes of Formula one would be postponed,  there must be a lot of people per team that travel,  all over the world. 

20 minutes ago, Mungler said:

It’s probably because all these sports people are under the age of 40 fit as you like and stand zero chance of being affected by this virus.

How many times have we heard of a footballer, an F1 driver or tennis player getting Covid? Every day? Every week?

Not one ends up in hospital. 

They are yes, but the coaches, managers and backroom staff aren't.

There was a skier on a few weeks ago Sunday evening,  the guy works as a career as well and said the virus absolutely floored him.

[Raja Clavata]

Like all walks of life, it's a percentage game, one of the recent Chelsea signings was proper ill with it apparently.

[Scully]

1 hour ago, Mungler said:

It’s probably because all these sports people are under the age of 40 fit as you like and stand zero chance of being affected by this virus.

How many times have we heard of a footballer, an F1 driver or tennis player getting Covid? Every day? Every week?

Not one ends up in hospital. 

I agree entirely, but isn’t it the SPREAD of the virus the reason we are in lockdown? 
My super fit 21 year old son isn’t allowed to give his super fit 23 year old sister ( who live in the same house ) a driving lesson. 🤷‍♂️

[Scully]

1 hour ago, Lloyd90 said:

 

The NHS are massively under staffed with nurses and other professionals without having to suddenly man a huge number of other hospitals as well.

 

I believe it’s been a publicised that those nightingale hospitals don’t have the staff to run. 
 

My friend the ICU nurse said she had some army staff in to train how to look after people. They didn’t know the most basic stuff, she said they were young lads about 18-21, and they told her they came to her unit to have a look what it’s like. 
 

 

ICU beds which are usually 1:1 staffed and very well equipped (I’ve been on them) are being adapted to have 2:1 or even more per nurse on each station. 
 

 

But didn’t all that apply last March also? Which begs the question then why kit them out? 

[Mungler]

1 hour ago, AVB said:

My sources say the biggest shortage is amongst cleaners and porters as many are ‘self isolating’. 

A week ago it was reported in the Telegraph that 100,000 NHS employees were off sick at one time in the last month.

I’ve got friends and family in the NHS and the ‘lead swinging’ that goes on is truly epic. You wouldn’t get anything on a comparable scale in the private sector.

 

[Lloyd90]

1 hour ago, Scully said:

But didn’t all that apply last March also? Which begs the question then why kit them out? 

 

I said why I think they kitted them out, some people who are old and vulnerable will be taken to hospital but the hospital will have to prioritise people (which they have said all along). 

 

In the situation things get really bad they will have to prioritise those they consider more "valuable" ... (going off what that legislator said the other day that caused a lot of upset).

 

The people they don't have the ability to treat will have to go somewhere. Most likely the Nightingale Hospital, which will be staffed with army personel who provide basic care, food and water for those that can manage it. They won't have enough respirators etc for everyone so these are looking to be people warehousing, they will either pull through on their own or fade away. 

 

I hope I am wrong but considering they don't have enough staff and equipment for the normal hospitals if things get bad what else could it be? 

 

People are complaining that the Nightingale Hospitals aren't being used.

Others and praying and thanking God that they aren't getting used ... 

[Scully]

37 minutes ago, Lloyd90 said:

 

I said why I think they kitted them out, some people who are old and vulnerable will be taken to hospital but the hospital will have to prioritise people (which they have said all along). 

 

In the situation things get really bad they will have to prioritise those they consider more "valuable" ... (going off what that legislator said the other day that caused a lot of upset).

 

The people they don't have the ability to treat will have to go somewhere. Most likely the Nightingale Hospital, which will be staffed with army personel who provide basic care, food and water for those that can manage it. They won't have enough respirators etc for everyone so these are looking to be people warehousing, they will either pull through on their own or fade away. 

 

I hope I am wrong but considering they don't have enough staff and equipment for the normal hospitals if things get bad what else could it be? 

 

People are complaining that the Nightingale Hospitals aren't being used.

Others and praying and thanking God that they aren't getting used ... 

Fair enough. I’m not complaining, just wondering why things are as they are ( for some ) given the stated seriousness of it all.

I’m not praying or thanking God either, one is as pointless as the other.  

[henry d]

On 21/01/2021 at 18:36, Mungler said:

This was in response to Henry suggesting that young people were going to die in the way and quantities as those in WW2, and they just aren’t.

My apologies, that was not what I meant. Again I am watching the news and a doctor on a Covid ward in the SE/London area has just stated that the patients he is treating now are 25% young people. On the back of that a virologist said that at present there is an increase in the 20-30 age group with the new variant. The numbers are very small but over all age groups but an increase of hospitalisation of 30-40% is frightening.

[AVB]

1 hour ago, henry d said:

My apologies, that was not what I meant. Again I am watching the news and a doctor on a Covid ward in the SE/London area has just stated that the patients he is treating now are 25% young people. On the back of that a virologist said that at present there is an increase in the 20-30 age group with the new variant. The numbers are very small but over all age groups but an increase of hospitalisation of 30-40% is frightening.

Look at the stats from the ONS. The percentage of patients in hospital with covid aged under 55 hasn’t changed last year to this. Around 21%. 

[henry d]

1 minute ago, AVB said:

Look at the stats from the ONS. The percentage of patients in hospital with covid aged under 55 hasn’t changed last year to this. Around 21%. 

Is that from the London SE area?

[AVB]

Just now, henry d said:

Is that from the London SE area?

Nationally. 

[henry d]

1 hour ago, AVB said:

Nationally. 

That's why I said London and SE as that is where the increase in younger cases seems to be happening, if it is the case then as the new strain gets further around the country the numbers will go up for that group, I hope not and it is just a regional blip.

[12gauge82]

On 21/01/2021 at 09:42, henry d said:

Here is a bit of hope for you then. Apparently the virus needs to get rid of the protein spikes or make them smaller for the vaccine to be less effective.

Another thing is the increased rate of hospitalisation and subsequent deaths of younger people who then become the same as the WW2 people in the quotation. Hopefully that will make a few of them think about how they are acting during lockdown?

Nice bit of casual age discrimination there! 

[AVB]

1 hour ago, henry d said:

That's why I said London and SE as that is where the increase in younger cases seems to be happening, if it is the case then as the new strain gets further around the country the numbers will go up for that group, I hope not and it is just a regional blip.

Of course there are more ‘youngsters’ in hospital because there are more people in hospital. But if there was a greater proportion in London & SE I would expect, considering the large population in that region, for the countrywide numbers to reflect a change in the percentage. They aren’t   
 

whilst I trust doctors with their medical treatment I don’t trust them to be objective in their analysis of numbers and profile of patients. 

[Saltings]

ok may be on a tangent  my daughter upset on tuesday as bad news a good friend called darcy  now 26 had cancer in his teens then replacement hips dew to treatment   mother got bowl cancer a number of years ago  had chemo two years clear started chemo again a month ago now stopped  as not responding       father passing some blood in stools about july got into hospital last week bowl cancer as well    spread to many other areas  starting exploratory/new chemo on monday  i dont know the right name     no chance but learn for the future     daughter destroyed      darsy has been there destroyed as he understands the pain of chemo     knows what his mom has been through   and now his dad and know its gone too far for both   they dont have long     given covid   if something not right get it checked out and push to get seen     or else

covid is taking others as well