Putin announces 'military operation' in Ukraine.

[Mungler]

3 minutes ago, oldypigeonpopper said:

Hello, what's with the threat , NOT BLUFFING ? is that directed at the Western powers ??

At the time the Wall went down the Russian and the Chinese economies were the same size. In the intervening period the Chinese have played a great game of climbing the global greasy pole to arguably get to the top.

Regardless of what NATO will or won’t do, you can bet that the Chinese won’t want the world which they have already painstakingly conquered economically and commercially to be turned to glass by some lunatic gangster.

Having scraped the prisons for people to fight in Ukraine Putin is first now calling up old service personal - out of shape, out of training and out of the military, and who will now leave their families and normal lives to risk serious injury and death in Ukraine. 

That’s going to go down well. 

And training new recruits. Well, who will do that and how long will it take before they can be deployed?

I wonder how this will play out in Russia and on the free and open media in that democratic beacon and guiding light that is Russia? 😆

 

[oldypigeonpopper]

2 hours ago, Mungler said:

At the time the Wall went down the Russian and the Chinese economies were the same size. In the intervening period the Chinese have played a great game of climbing the global greasy pole to arguably get to the top.

Regardless of what NATO will or won’t do, you can bet that the Chinese won’t want the world which they have already painstakingly conquered economically and commercially to be turned to glass by some lunatic gangster.

Having scraped the prisons for people to fight in Ukraine Putin is first now calling up old service personal - out of shape, out of training and out of the military, and who will now leave their families and normal lives to risk serious injury and death in Ukraine. 

That’s going to go down well. 

And training new recruits. Well, who will do that and how long will it take before they can be deployed?

I wonder how this will play out in Russia and on the free and open media in that democratic beacon and guiding light that is Russia? 😆

 

Hello, why has Turkey got involved , more so the grain shipments ?

[mchughcb]

3 hours ago, Mungler said:

At the time the Wall went down the Russian and the Chinese economies were the same size. In the intervening period the Chinese have played a great game of climbing the global greasy pole to arguably get to the top.

Regardless of what NATO will or won’t do, you can bet that the Chinese won’t want the world which they have already painstakingly conquered economically and commercially to be turned to glass by some lunatic gangster.

Having scraped the prisons for people to fight in Ukraine Putin is first now calling up old service personal - out of shape, out of training and out of the military, and who will now leave their families and normal lives to risk serious injury and death in Ukraine. 

That’s going to go down well. 

And training new recruits. Well, who will do that and how long will it take before they can be deployed?

I wonder how this will play out in Russia and on the free and open media in that democratic beacon and guiding light that is Russia? 😆

 

 

I've worked in lived in Russia and worked in China. If you walked down the street they would be like any other western country at first glance around the major city centres. It get a lot more primitive as you move more rural just like Africa or South America. People have been recruited from jails before in many military operations, won't be the last time. Your comment about out of shape russians, have you seen the average englishman lately? An obesity crisis is not the issue in Russia, is more about alcohol. The training of the third army has been going on for some time and they were stationed at Rostov on Don and are now being deployed. A fourth army is currently being formed in the southern oblasts. Who knows they may put in another 2 army groups. How long the training takes, I have no idea, they may take 3-6 months as they have all had basic training. Depends what their deployment is.

I'd like to tell you how it would play out on any Russian media but hey, guess what the UK was one of the first to ban RT so why would you bark on about free media when your own country bans the official media from another country. Hardly free an open in my eyes.

 

 

 

 

[Rewulf]

1 minute ago, mchughcb said:

I'd like to tell you how it would play out on any Russian media but hey, guess what the UK was one of the first to ban RT so why would you bark on about free media when your own country bans the official media from another country. Hardly free an open in my eyes.

The UK government had been after banning RT for years , they just didnt sing from the official song sheet , so any excuse had to do.
They didnt even get the chance to say anything contradictory about the war, before Boris instructed the completely impartial and not at all answerable to the government OFCOM to ban them , as , and I quote, 'We only want one narrative'
Free press ? Nah.

3 hours ago, Mungler said:

Having scraped the prisons for people to fight in Ukraine Putin is first now calling up old service personal - out of shape, out of training and out of the military, and who will now leave their families and normal lives to risk serious injury and death in Ukraine. 

That’s going to go down well. 

And training new recruits. Well, who will do that and how long will it take before they can be deployed?

Calling reservists in any country , out of shape , or out of training , without any evidence to support the claim, is a little harsh ?
And new recruits are taken on by armies the world over , and deployed very quickly, this is inarguable.
Veterans are just as susceptible to that rocket or shell landing on them as a 6 week trained greeny.
Weight of numbers and weight of fire wins battles , and you can bet your house that if Russia mobilises , then Ukraine will step up its draft process too.
More meat for the grinder ?

The important part of this , is that mobilisation , even partial, means that Russia can no longer call this a 'special military operation' any more , Putin has announced that this is being done because they are effectively at war with the west, due to the amount of heavy and hi tech weaponry being supplied, not to mention the intelligence being given.
Ive long suspected the US is giving live satellite info to Ukraine to help target its precision munitions.
But its not a proxy war is it ? 😆

The annexation question is another serious matter , if after sham referendums , the various new 'Russian' territories come under fire from western weaponry, this could be seen as an attack on Russia itself.
The fact that hardly anyone will recognise these new Russian Oblasts is largely irrelevant, and is a very large headache not only for the US ,but the EU more so.

There are many who think its all a Russian bluff to stop western arms shipments, and it might well be.
But just as I believe the whole invasion was a bluff originally, sometimes when you back an enemy into a corner, unpredictable things happen.

 

[Walker570]

I almost made a mess of myself laughing....Putin the Aggresor is now going to have a referendum of the Russian people to see if he should declare the last little bit of Ukraine his rag tag army is holding on to , Russian Terrotory.

The voting papers are headed ..,  SAY NO FOR A FREE TRIP TO JAIL.

[islandgun]

8 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

 

sometimes when you back an enemy into a corner, unpredictable things happen.

 

This is my concern ! we need some sensible negotiations and compromises by both sides

[welsh1]

18 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

The UK government had been after banning RT for years , they just didnt sing from the official song sheet , so any excuse had to do.
They didnt even get the chance to say anything contradictory about the war, before Boris instructed the completely impartial and not at all answerable to the government OFCOM to ban them , as , and I quote, 'We only want one narrative'
Free press ? Nah.

Calling reservists in any country , out of shape , or out of training , without any evidence to support the claim, is a little harsh ?
And new recruits are taken on by armies the world over , and deployed very quickly, this is inarguable.
Veterans are just as susceptible to that rocket or shell landing on them as a 6 week trained greeny.
Weight of numbers and weight of fire wins battles , and you can bet your house that if Russia mobilises , then Ukraine will step up its draft process too.
More meat for the grinder ?

The important part of this , is that mobilisation , even partial, means that Russia can no longer call this a 'special military operation' any more , Putin has announced that this is being done because they are effectively at war with the west, due to the amount of heavy and hi tech weaponry being supplied, not to mention the intelligence being given.
Ive long suspected the US is giving live satellite info to Ukraine to help target its precision munitions.
But its not a proxy war is it ? 😆

The annexation question is another serious matter , if after sham referendums , the various new 'Russian' territories come under fire from western weaponry, this could be seen as an attack on Russia itself.
The fact that hardly anyone will recognise these new Russian Oblasts is largely irrelevant, and is a very large headache not only for the US ,but the EU more so.

There are many who think its all a Russian bluff to stop western arms shipments, and it might well be.
But just as I believe the whole invasion was a bluff originally, sometimes when you back an enemy into a corner, unpredictable things happen.

 

Afghanistan for both the Russians and the rest has proved that statement false.

Putin has stated it's a war, her is now going to conscript and sooner or later the russian people will have dead sons coming home, the russian people will eventually see the true horror Putin is dragging them into.

The russian military has been shown to have poor equipment, poor leadership, and poor morale,They are losing their war in Ukraine, this is the desperation of a unhinged leader trying to justify his disasterous decision to invade another country.

I did hear that the kremlin was in a panic as someone broke in and stole the election results.

[mchughcb]

12 minutes ago, Walker570 said:

I almost made a mess of myself laughing....Putin the Aggresor is now going to have a referendum of the Russian people to see if he should declare the last little bit of Ukraine his rag tag army is holding on to , Russian Terrotory.

The voting papers are headed ..,  SAY NO FOR A FREE TRIP TO JAIL.

The Oblasts are saying they want to have a referendum asap to join the Russian federation.

 

[mchughcb]

9 minutes ago, welsh1 said:

Afghanistan for both the Russians and the rest has proved that statement false.

Putin has stated it's a war, her is now going to conscript and sooner or later the russian people will have dead sons coming home, the russian people will eventually see the true horror Putin is dragging them into.

The russian military has been shown to have poor equipment, poor leadership, and poor morale,They are losing their war in Ukraine, this is the desperation of a unhinged leader trying to justify his disasterous decision to invade another country.

I did hear that the kremlin was in a panic as someone broke in and stole the election results.

Deranged? A 20 year war on terror costing 6 trillion dollars was complete sanity. 

This is going to get serious and NATO hasn't even asked its population how they are going to pay for this next folly.

 

 

 

[welsh1]

5 minutes ago, mchughcb said:

Deranged? A 20 year war on terror costing 6 trillion dollars was complete sanity. 

This is going to get serious and NATO hasn't even asked its population how they are going to pay for this next folly.

 

 

 

I think you misunderstood my comment about afghanistan, go back and see the part i highlighted in red in the quoted section.

Both russia and the west believed that numbers and firepower would win the war, both proved wrong, it just took the west twice as long to realise.

[oowee]

39 minutes ago, welsh1 said:

I think you misunderstood my comment about afghanistan, go back and see the part i highlighted in red in the quoted section.

Both russia and the west believed that numbers and firepower would win the war, both proved wrong, it just took the west twice as long to realise.

This. ^^^ You can take a country but try to win hearts and minds and its a very different prospect. I think it can be done but the focus is huge and the cost enormous and even then the country is likely to want independence at the first opportunity.

[Rewulf]

23 minutes ago, oowee said:

This. ^^^ You can take a country but try to win hearts and minds and its a very different prospect. I think it can be done but the focus is huge and the cost enormous and even then the country is likely to want independence at the first opportunity.

It probably helps to win hearts and minds if you dont kill hundreds of thousands of civilians ?
Its certainly a pity that when we decided to invade Iraq and Afghanistan, there wasnt someone there to foresee that hearts and minds could never be won with money , or bullets and bombs.
Putin must know that the west of Ukraine will never accept Russian rule, the east and south are a different matter of course, but we are lead to believe that NO Ukrainian wants to be part of Russias orbit.
As Ive said , the referendums will be a sham (if they happen) if only because the only people likely to vote will be pro Russian.
The cost to Ukraine so far is enormous, the cost to Russia similar , but what of the cost to us ?
Worldwide recession looms (again) and the threat of escalation into nuclear.
Its all very well saying 'We cant let him get away with it, slava Ukraini' and all that, but how far are WE all prepared to go  ?

What are we prepared to sacrifice, for a country no one cared about a year ago ?

1 hour ago, welsh1 said:

Both russia and the west believed that numbers and firepower would win the war, both proved wrong, it just took the west twice as long to realise.

Generally speaking, and this is taken as the rule , weight of numbers and fire, are the deciding factor in engagements/wars.
Technology helps to an extent, but that doesnt hold territory , or take prisoners.
Despite the blurb that Ukrainian combatants are many times better than Russians, the consensus from independent sources , is that Ukraine has lost just as many men as Russia,  and if Russia wants to continue, they need to combat the large manpower pool of Ukraine with more men.
This isnt a flag wave for Russia BTW , its just the simple logic of it.

[mchughcb]

1 hour ago, welsh1 said:

I think you misunderstood my comment about afghanistan, go back and see the part i highlighted in red in the quoted section.

Both russia and the west believed that numbers and firepower would win the war, both proved wrong, it just took the west twice as long to realise.

Well the difference this time is the Russian speaking Ukrainians have asked for help. The USA supplied Stingers to the Taliban to fight Russia. Now the USA supplies Stingers to Ukraine to fight Russia. I'm starting to see a pattern here.

5 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

 

What are we prepared to sacrifice, for a country no one cared about a year ago ?

 

10% for the big guy.

 

[welsh1]

50 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

Generally speaking, and this is taken as the rule , weight of numbers and fire, are the deciding factor in engagements/wars.
Technology helps to an extent, but that doesnt hold territory , or take prisoners.
Despite the blurb that Ukrainian combatants are many times better than Russians, the consensus from independent sources , is that Ukraine has lost just as many men as Russia,  and if Russia wants to continue, they need to combat the large manpower pool of Ukraine with more men.
This isnt a flag wave for Russia BTW , its just the simple logic of it.

Generally speaking and this is taken as a rule, well equipped well trained and well disiplined troops are the deciding factors in engagements/ wars.
While the usa may like to outnumber the enemy by a large factor, you only have to look at well trained armies who are well equipped and you will see they are usually the deciding factors.
The British armed forces has proven this many times from Rorke's Drift through to the Falklands and many wars in between.

The russians are badly trained, their kit is not fit for purpose and their morale is tanked, the ukrainians have at their disposal the latest technology and they have inflicted losses on the russians that show a smaller army can fight back and win with the right kit.

Russia is famous for ww2 when they threw people at the enemy and lost many millions to win, that will not happen in this war, moscow is not threatened , most russians do not know the truth about the war in ukraine, but today men of conscript age are desperatly trying to leave russia, because they now realise they will probably die if sent to ukraine.Putin smacks of desperation as his little incursion has made him look a fool and he is desperatly trying to gain credibility, he doesn't want to stand to close to steep flights of stairs or stand on a balcony as we all know what happens when the powers that be think you are no longer a viable option .

 

[henry d]

41 minutes ago, mchughcb said:

The USA supplied Stingers to the Taliban to fight Russia. Now the USA supplies Stingers to Ukraine to fight Russia. I'm starting to see a pattern here.

The pattern I'm seeing is that Russia doesn't learn. 

 

13 minutes ago, welsh1 said:

...army...

Armed forces please!

[welsh1]

2 minutes ago, henry d said:

 

 

Armed forces please!

My apologies Henry, i have altered my faux pas, we all play our part.

[Rewulf]

10 minutes ago, welsh1 said:

Generally speaking and this is taken as a rule, well equipped well trained and well disiplined troops are the deciding factors in engagements/ wars.

As I said , generally.
Although somewhat dated dated, Lanchesters equations are still taught at most of the western worlds military academies.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0898122107000557#:~:text=For the Area Fire equations,0 %3D B ( 0 ) .

We can agree to disagree on what factor training , equipment and discipline bears on these principles, but if you have a platoon being fired upon by a company ie 5 x the number of weapons bought to bear, (and we shall leave out the terrain element), the smaller group , 'generally' fares worse.
If you think a 1914 text on warfare seems irrelevant , then consider that much weight is given to Sun Tzu teachings , which are several thousand years old.

10 minutes ago, welsh1 said:

While the usa may like to outnumber the enemy by a large factor, you only have to look at well trained armies who are well equipped and you will see they are usually the deciding factors.

US doctrine is to gain air superiority, they havent fought anyone, without achieving this since 1945.
 

[henry d]

15 minutes ago, welsh1 said:

My apologies Henry, i have altered my faux pas, we all play our part.

No blood, no foul.

[welsh1]

54 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

As I said , generally.
Although somewhat dated dated, Lanchesters equations are still taught at most of the western worlds military academies.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0898122107000557#:~:text=For the Area Fire equations,0 %3D B ( 0 ) .

We can agree to disagree on what factor training , equipment and discipline bears on these principles, but if you have a platoon being fired upon by a company ie 5 x the number of weapons bought to bear, (and we shall leave out the terrain element), the smaller group , 'generally' fares worse.
If you think a 1914 text on warfare seems irrelevant , then consider that much weight is given to Sun Tzu teachings , which are several thousand years old.

US doctrine is to gain air superiority, they havent fought anyone, without achieving this since 1945.
 

How did that air superiority play out in Vietnam?

The falklands show highly motivated troops going against dug in troops in key ground, and the British forces won, because the argentine were conscritps, scared, under trained.and while they had some trained forces ours were better,and when it came down to the nasty stuff the British train for it.
The british forces from the navy, royal airforce and army were all highly motivated highly trained personel with the ability to think on their feet and react accordingly.

Look at Israel and the wars fought against egypt and their allies, Israel won time and time, why, highly motivated well trained and well equiped forces.

Going right back to the romans, they recognised the importance of highly trained and well equiped forces, and history is littered with victories over vastly superior enemies.

As for your platoon being fired on by a company, depends again on the ability of the troops, there are many instances of small british special forces taking on vastly superior enemies and winning.

Ukraine has that will and motivation, they are protecting their own land and this gives them motivation and will to win, the russian troops do not want to die on anothers soil for the glory of comrade putin.
If russia was that good they would have taken the whole country and be embedded in a gurilla war from ukraine nationals that they would eventually lose. Russia is calling up it's conscripts that means they are short of troops, they are struggling to supply men, it may be a big country, but it appears it's army is a bit of a basket case, it's logistics are terrible, its command structure is abysmal, it's morale is shot and it's equipment is very poor.

Never underestimate the will to win.

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/royal-marines-humiliate-american-exercise/#:~:text='Dominant' Royal Marines humiliate US troops into surrendering halfway through exercise,-3 November 2021&text=Royal Marines have forced US,asking to reset the scenario.



 

[Rewulf]

14 minutes ago, welsh1 said:

How did that air superiority play out in Vietnam?

A lot better than if they didnt have it !
It didnt win the war, but accounted for many a decisive battle in favour of the Americans.
Apart from the odd Mig over N Vietnam, the Yanks had complete use of the skys to drop troops, bomb and medevac.

20 minutes ago, welsh1 said:

The falklands show highly motivated troops going against dug in troops in key ground, and the British forces won, because the argentine were conscritps, scared, under trained.and while they had some trained forces ours were better,and when it came down to the nasty stuff the British train for it.
The british forces from the navy, royal airforce and army were all highly motivated highly trained personel with the ability to think on their feet and react accordingly.

Thats a good example of better trained personnel, but apart from surrendering , Argentine losses werent that much different to British losses when you take the sailors on the Belgrano out of the equation.
Troop strength for the Argentines for the entire Islands was 13000, a woefully small amount to fight any kind of conflict.
Engagements like Tumbledown, had similar numbers on both sides.

 

1 hour ago, welsh1 said:

Look at Israel and the wars fought against egypt and their allies, Israel won time and time, why, highly motivated well trained and well equiped forces.

Going right back to the romans, they recognised the importance of highly trained and well equiped forces, and history is littered with victories over vastly superior enemies.

As for your platoon being fired on by a company, depends again on the ability of the troops, there are many instances of small british special forces taking on vastly superior enemies and winning.

All true, but like I said , generally.
The battles that are remembered, are always those that have the surprise outcome.

[oowee]

3 hours ago, Rewulf said:

 

What are we prepared to sacrifice, for a country no one cared about a year ago ?

 

Whatever it takes. It's not about Ukraine. It's just as much about our freedoms. It is an inevitable part of rebalancing the scales. 

[welsh1]

15 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

A lot better than if they didnt have it !
It didnt win the war, but accounted for many a decisive battle in favour of the Americans.
Apart from the odd Mig over N Vietnam, the Yanks had complete use of the skys to drop troops, bomb and medevac.

Thats a good example of better trained personnel, but apart from surrendering , Argentine losses werent that much different to British losses when you take the sailors on the Belgrano out of the equation.
Troop strength for the Argentines for the entire Islands was 13000, a woefully small amount to fight any kind of conflict.
Engagements like Tumbledown, had similar numbers on both sides.

 

All true, but like I said , generally.
The battles that are remembered, are always those that have the surprise outcome.

So tell me if Russia is the bigger force, why are they losing?

Why have they not taken a smaller force by storm and dominated Ukraine?

[henry d]

1 hour ago, welsh1 said:

The british forces from the navy, royal airforce and army were all highly motivated highly trained personel with the ability to think on their feet and react accordingly.

Agreed, and also cooperation and coordinate with each other, then you need to factor in special forces. 

TANGENT ALERT, we (RN) were given information about aircraft leaving certain airfields and the direction. 

Russia has air and ground forces, and ineffectual naval resources, the same goes for Ukraine, both have special ops and observations so all square there. Questions still remain as to why the Russians are getting pushed back but Putin's escalation is telling. I see that the prisons are being given a shake to see what drops out and flights are getting booked up for anywhere out of Russia. 

Go figure 

[Mungler]

18 minutes ago, welsh1 said:

So tell me if Russia is the bigger force, why are they losing?

Why have they not taken a smaller force by storm and dominated Ukraine?

Don’t bother, you will wear yourself out 😆

If you read his long reply to your original post, I think he has actually agreed with you on all fronts,  but it’s dressed up in long disagreeable paragraphs.

Back on topic, I don’t general or partial mobilisation is going to help Putin much (and certainly not in the short term) or give him whatever it is he thinks this is all about. But hey, he’s a master tactician right and all of this (including the large scale ‘tactical withdrawals’ and significant loss of equipment) is all part of the master plan remember 😆 Indeed, it’s all going swimmingly for Russia right now 👍

[ditchman]

if putin is going to mobilise 300k semi trained troops....this may well come back to bite him in the rear end

i would imajine these are youngish people 28-45...who are settled in their jobs ..just about making ends meet to look after their families...semi skilled in internet usage from pre ukranian war.........ripped out from their lives to fight and die on mount doom

they will be phoning home and word will spread even quicker....and the pot will start to boil...