Putin announces 'military operation' in Ukraine.

[Mungler]

26 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

And yet you are, and yet you do. 

Nope. I am at one with it all. Any argument with people who don’t, won’t and can’t accept the MSM version of the Salisbury murders and the invasion of Ukraine for example (absolutely not a ‘special military operation’) but willingly accept the content of RT, is a total waste of time. Ok it took me 100+ pages to realise that but I got there - others gave up along the way 😆

Edited September 6, 2022 by Mungler

[Dave-G]

6 minutes ago, Mungler said:

Nope. I am at one with it all. Any argument with people who don’t, won’t and can’t accept the MSM version of the Salisbury murders and the invasion of Ukraine for example (absolutely not a ‘special military operation’) but willingly accept the content of RT, is a total waste of time. Ok it took me 100+ pages to realise that but I got there - others gave up along the way 😆

I think rewulf has made it known he doesn't believe either side any more than the other, but like me and many others don't accept everything pro Russian or western media reports as reliable.

Speaking for myself, I feel though Cretin was a rotten one for invading Ukraine - Ukraine ain't no angels either. Most of what we in the west - or those in Russia can read or view is tainted with a liberal dose of potential propaganda.

[Mungler]

7 minutes ago, Dave-G said:

Speaking for myself, I feel though Cretin was a rotten one for invading Ukraine - Ukraine ain't no angels either. Most of what we in the west - or those in Russia can read or view is tainted with a liberal dose of potential propaganda.

Agree with that. The added aspect for me is just how unnecessary the invasion was (and with that all that has followed). There we go.

[Rewulf]

41 minutes ago, Mungler said:

Agree with that. The added aspect for me is just how unnecessary the invasion was (and with that all that has followed). There we go.

And guess what? 

I can agree with that too. 

There we go, progress. 

[amateur]

5 hours ago, Mungler said:

Agree with that. The added aspect for me is just how unnecessary the invasion was (and with that all that has followed). There we go.

 

4 hours ago, Rewulf said:

And guess what? 

I can agree with that too. 

There we go, progress. 

......... and they walked off into the sunset, hand in hand. 🤣

[Newbie to this]

8 hours ago, Mungler said:

(absolutely not a ‘special military operation’)

Perhaps the Cremlin should have called it, 'Operation Ukraini Freedom' 

 

[Mungler]

One of the chaps I follow on line is proving to be a very useful and regular war content consolidation update service.

He has posted as per below if anyone is interested in which ‘sources’ and why.
 

 

I thought I'd say something about the sources I follow to keep an eye on this murderous war. I have two favourites, one very conventional, one very unconventional.

Conventionally, I recommend Bild's highly experienced and very well informed war correspondent, Julian Ropcke. He is pretty much the only Western analyst who is not wildly optimistic, for which stance he gets death threats. When the Russians pull something off, he'll tell you. Find him on Twitter. 

Unconventially, I reccomend war criminal and genocidal maniac, the man alleged to be responsible for shooting down Malaysia Airlines MH17, former FSB colonel and former defense minister of the so-called Donetsk Peoples Republic, Igor Girkin, aka Strelkov. Girkin is immensely well informed, and represents that wing of the military which is deeply cross that Putin doesn't declare a full on war. He is immensely rude about the current military leadership, but stays out of jail and inside of windows because, as I have explained before, Putin likes the presence of alternative viewpoints more bananas than his own because it creates the illusion of democratic debate. Girkin will gleefully report Russian success because he is a raging nationalist. On the other hand he will gleefully report failure because it makes his point. He's also, even machine translated, quite fun to read.

"OPTIMISTIC FORECAST

Kadyrov announced a new large-scale offensive in the DPR

I will not comment on Ramzan Akhmadovich's statements in detail. Let me just remind you that all his previous statements about "concrete", "effective" and other "stages" turned out to be ... to put it mildly ... "not entirely true." Let's see how it will be this time.

And on my own behalf I will write that I DO NOT EXPECT ANY MORE MAJOR SUCCESSES OF THE RF Armed Forces over the next 2-3 months.
So? - And then they will be possible only if the Kremlin stops "flying on blue clouds around the planet of pink ponies" and finds the strength to face the truth and start fighting for real (with martial law, the mobilization of the army and the economy and etc.). But if the Kremlin elders do not dare to do this, in 2-3 months, not tactical, but quite serious defeats will begin. And this - I emphasize - is still a rather optimistic forecast (in terms of the start time of future defeats)."

He wrote that a few days ago. He's right, it's looking optimistic.

But it's not all rants. Here is this morning's:

" Today's first attack on our positions in the Ternovye Pody area has been repulsed. It is reported that the enemy is preparing for another"

You can find Girkin on Telegram. 

Looking at other sources:
Aleksey Arestovych, Ukranian spokesman, ex military, ex right wing nutter, provides a wide ranging summary every day. Not only should *any* official spokesman / news source always be read carefully, but this one seems to be a wild optimist on an individual level. He is however usefully frank, even colourful. 

Assorted official military channels - there loads of these, unless you want the entertainment they are summarised by Arestovych and The Euromaidan Press.

Phillips P O'Brian. Military academic, extremely intelligent and well informed on military theory, wildly optimistic.

The Institute For The Study of War. Very useful for maps, be warned, extremely close to the UKR leadership.

Def Mon. Former OCSE monitor of the Minsk agreements, well informed, highly opinionated, having watched the orcs shell civillians for 8 years and try to blame it on UKR, very pro UKR. Excellent maps.  Often ahead of the game, confirm with other sources. Find him on Twitter.

[Mungler]

And not wishing to flood the thread, but I do find these reports and updates interesting and useful. 

 

Quick war report:

Kherson - UKR counter offensive began, general consensus, initial territorial gains were not worth high price paid in crack troops and fancy kit. Attacking the orcs across the river took them by surprise. However positionally speaking it's been a great success. UKR has destroyed logistics and supply lines in all directions, arguably leaving 20,000 orcs trapped. Now we see if the Orc pop up ferries and fuel pipes can replace the three main bridges. In addition, since the small-gains-not-worth-it consensus of Sunday, UKR seems to be picking up the pace again.

Donetsk - UKR had excellent battle hardened troops there, but they were under-equipped. Now rotated out in favour of NATO trained and armed troops, giving the orcs Hell. The Orc problem was they could flatten stuff and take it, but they couldn't hold it due to lack of manpower (they took Pisky eight times). It seems the new, well equipped but woefully undermanned 3rd Amy Corps will now be providing manpower. Even so the battle is going slightly against the Orcs. 

In Kharkiv province UKR have got a bit lively in the last 8 hours and for now the orcs are retreating.

 

Follow up:

 

Updates and corrections: UKR forces in the East have not been rotated out, but reinforced by the NATO equiped 93rd Korodny Yar Brigade.

RU are not in Pisky, having been kicked out yet again. It is now empty. Neither side can hold it.

UKR look close to taking the large town of Balakliya (Izyum front, Kharkiv province). This is significant in that it would be the first big conurbation that UKR has taken back, and will give everyone a look at exactly what level of rape, torture and murder the orcs are currently up to in the territory they hold.

Sauron has set the 15th of this month as the date by which Donetsk province must be taken. Weeks ago the orcs entered the town of Soledar. They are still fighting over it, having been pushed out several times. It is possible that Sauron expects great things of the 3rd Army Corp, which seems wildly optimistic, but more likely he doesn't have, or isn't being told, or simply refuses to accept, the true picture. Given he seems to be taking much more control of events personally, the more deluded he is the faster and more decisively he'll lose.

In my non military opinion one of the two sides is hugely over-reaching itself at the moment, with UKR taking on a massive Army in Kherson at the same time as pushing back in Donetsk and around Izium, and Mordor setting itself absurd targets in Donetsk and rushing forces into what looks very like a closing trap in Kherson even while losing ground around Izium, essential to their supply lines. I'm increasingly hopeful the deluded side is Mordor.

 

Amusingly:

 

On the first of September the Orcs claimed UKR had crossed the river with sixty special forces soldiers to take the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant back. This was obvious BS designed to put off the nuclear inspectors, so we were all a bit shocked when video emerged of the corpses by the river. Orc shills reposted this endlessly.

Today UKR let out a slightly longer version of the video, showing the "corpses" getting up at the end.

 

 

[ditchman]

its being reported that some of the russian troops are refusing to carry out orders...semi going on strike .due to poor front line conditions .............

quite easily it could be fake news..but seeing how the russian troops are trained (lack of) and supplied and led ...i wouldnt be surprised..

[mchughcb]

20 minutes ago, ditchman said:

its being reported that some of the russian troops are refusing to carry out orders...semi going on strike .due to poor front line conditions .............

quite easily it could be fake news..but seeing how the russian troops are trained (lack of) and supplied and led ...i wouldnt be surprised..

its being reported that some of the ukrainian troops are refusing to carry out orders...semi going on strike .due to poor front line conditions .............

quite easily it could be fake news..but seeing how the ukrainian troops are trained (lack of) and supplied and led ...i wouldnt be surprised..

 

 

[Dave-G]

2 minutes ago, mchughcb said:

its being reported that some of the ukrainian troops are refusing to carry out orders...semi going on strike .due to poor front line conditions .............

quite easily it could be fake news..but seeing how the ukrainian troops are trained (lack of) and supplied and led ...i wouldnt be surprised..

 

 

Good luck understanding that lot.

[mchughcb]

Moral is poor in the army and people want to desert. Nothing has changed in 10,000 years of war. Alexander's Army wasn't too happy either by the time they got to India.

[oldypigeonpopper]

Hello, I read Putin's buying military weapons from Iran and North Korea, Ukrainians are still being killed and buildings destroyed yet seems it's not news worthy much now, is the west going to still sit by and watch a country and its citizens face complete destruction

Edited September 7, 2022 by oldypigeonpopper

[mchughcb]

3 minutes ago, Dave-G said:

Good luck understanding that lot.

Just turn the captions on and then settings to auto translate english.

[ditchman]

5 minutes ago, mchughcb said:

its being reported that some of the ukrainian troops are refusing to carry out orders...semi going on strike .due to poor front line conditions .............

quite easily it could be fake news..but seeing how the ukrainian troops are trained (lack of) and supplied and led ...i wouldnt be surprised..

 

 

Eh ?..............more bovine excrement from u-tube 

[mchughcb]

Just now, oldypigeonpopper said:

Hello, I read Putin's buying military weapons from Iran and North Korea, Ukrainians are still being killed and buildings destroyed yet seems it's not worth news worthy much now, is the west going to still sit by and watch a country and its citizens face complete destruction

Well like every NATO country want's to see how their weapons are holding up, I guess that the holds up the same with Iran and NK.

1 minute ago, ditchman said:

Eh ?..............more bovine excrement from u-tube 

Maybe, but slightly better than some random anonymous quote from the net.

[Dave-G]

8 minutes ago, mchughcb said:

Just turn the captions on and then settings to auto translate english.

? nothing found about that

[Rewulf]

6 hours ago, amateur said:

......... and they walked off into the sunset, hand in hand. 🤣

And had lots of little Mungwulfs 

39 minutes ago, Mungler said:

In my non military opinion one of the two sides is hugely over-reaching itself at the moment

Agreed, Ukraine is pushing hard , but taking considerable losses, they are playing the type of large front strategy which has been such a failure for the Russians.
There are some that say the Russians are letting them do this , over extending their lines , and expending ammo, men and equipment they will find difficult to replace.
I know you might find that a little hard to swallow , but tactical withdrawal 'in good order' is a well recognised military tactic , and has been for thousands of years, it doesnt always translate to losing.
The open country north of the Dnieper was always a difficult area to defend, very exposed to artillery and air attack.
I would expect the Russians to be quite happy in a way, to get out of it for a while.

The prize in that area is Kherson, and taking that would be extremely costly, as its heavily defended , but as a psycological and moral victory is would be priceless , but  you have to wonder what Ukraines end game is in the strategy of this , even if they did take the city, they cant cross the Dnieper  as theyve destroyed all the bridges, so all they have achieved is huge losses , and exposed themselves to massed Russian artillery.

The question of whether they have to prove something to western governments , as in , are they capable of pushing the Russians back ? Or , are they just going to stagnate while the west pours costly weapons in that arent used effectively , has got to be considered.

[Mungler]

This is all about Ukraine drawing a line, holding onto territory (likely to be de-marked by physical boundaries such as rivers) and then dragging it out i.e. making it so painful and expensive for Russia to take. I expect that they would like to get that line drawn before winter and it involves Kherson to the river and potentially cutting off a chunk of Russian military currently supplied by boat / pontoon.

None of us are forgetting that Russia is a nuclear super power with way more people, resources and nuclear weapons than Ukraine. However, that didn't stop them making a mess of Afghanistan and Ukraine is a big old piece of land to take and to hold, especially when the locals don't appear that keen.

So, unless Russia mobilizes the whole country or gets the Nukes out (neither of which is a great look and doubles down on this whole business, which no doubt even the RT brow beaten average Russian may consider to be less than necessary in its aims and objectives) then this is going to be about attrition, morale, support, the weather and ultimately those Russian sanctions kicking in (which they increasingly will with the passage of each day).

I expect that Ukraine will be very keen to take back the town of Balakliya (Izyum front, Kharkiv province) and to show the world (and its own countrymen) how nice the Russian invaders have been to the civilian population.

[Rewulf]

9 minutes ago, Mungler said:

This is all about Ukraine drawing a line, holding onto territory (likely to be de-marked by physical boundaries such as rivers) and then dragging it out i.e. making it so painful and expensive for Russia to take. I expect that they would like to get that line drawn before winter and it involves Kherson to the river and potentially cutting off a chunk of Russian military currently supplied by boat / pontoon.

Agreed , but lets be honest, can they hold it ?
This stretches their resources, and their own supply lines , lets not forget, Ukraine has no real functioning economy, and is largely propped up by western money.
Russia is in a far better position in the attrition stakes.

Ukraine has been waging a good war so far by playing a defensive , slow fallback game, its been very costly for Russia, yet now Ukraine seems to want to play the same tactics that cost Russia so dearly ?
The general rule of thumb for an offensive, is to place 2-3 times more troops and firepower onto a defensive position to guarantee success.
Ukraine is no where near that , its more like 1:1, and they have far less armour and artillery.
There are some that say , they lost all those Slovakian Mig 29 s already in this assault ?

17 minutes ago, Mungler said:

I expect that Ukraine will be very keen to take back the town of Balakliya (Izyum front, Kharkiv province) and to show the world (and its own countrymen) how nice the Russian invaders have been to the civilian population.

Theyve done all that already with Bucha ect, it makes for a stark headline, and people are outraged for a while , but it doesnt really change anything.
What will change, is if all these gains come to nothing, will the west keep sending arms and money towards a lost cause, with no possible return on their investment, while people at home wonder how they are going to heat their homes and put fuel in the tank.
Ukraine seem to know this is make or break now , and this winter is going to bite hard, in all aspects.

 

[mchughcb]

Something about motivation?

DPR militia take on the UA. I'm going to go out on a limb and say some of the motivation is intense.

 

 

Edited September 7, 2022 by mchughcb

[Jim Neal]

On 06/09/2022 at 06:00, mchughcb said:

NATO is fighting a proxy war

Don't mention the PROXY war! 

 

[mchughcb]

Well Putin said today, as long as it takes.

[Mice!]

25 minutes ago, mchughcb said:

Well Putin said today, as long as it takes.

He's not likely to say two more weeks.

[Mungler]

It appears to have been an interesting couple of days.

Girkin laying it on heavy with criticism of Putin and military, elsewhere growing calls to impeach Putin and sections of the Russian military in mutiny.

Very interesting times. 

 

 

10 hours ago, mchughcb said:

Well Putin said today, as long as it takes.

Let us see….