How much do you need to retire?

[oowee]

Certainly productivity in the UK is weak but add in the fundamental flaw that the success of the economy is based on growth that requires a continually growing population. We cannot afford a proportionally growing elderly population and at the same time increasing of benefits. 

Add in the economic contraction of Brexit (4%) the associated increase in energy costs (£370m), the need to significantly strengthen and restructure our armed forces, re model public services etc and we have the ingredients for a perfect storm. 

 

 

[Miserableolgit]

24 minutes ago, Mungler said:

 

My own view is that you should not factor a state pension into your calculations. Indeed, I think it will eventually become means tested.

Yes, we all "pay into the state pension pot" for all our lives, but of course there is no actual pot - it is merely what the next year's tax take can cover / what the next generation is prepared to contribute towards.

We are currently dealing with a lack of productivity on a never seen before scale and measuring anything in the future against what has always happened in the past is dangerous.

Factor in the length by which people are living longer and the daft civil service pensions still being doled out, there will be a breaking point inside of the next 20 years.

I do wish the conservative government had focused on the school curriculum in the last decade and promoted "economics" alongside maths and english - I really think that people would be appalled by government expenditure and at the rate by which they are taxed if they understood a few key facts / data sets better.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_spending_in_the_United_Kingdom

 

 

 

I would echo this.

[TIGHTCHOKE]

8 minutes ago, oowee said:

Certainly productivity in the UK is weak but add in the fundamental flaw that the success of the economy is based on growth that requires a continually growing population. We cannot afford a proportionally growing elderly population and at the same time increasing of benefits. 

Add in the economic contraction of Brexit (4%) the associated increase in energy costs (£370m), the need to significantly strengthen and restructure our armed forces, re model public services etc and we have the ingredients for a perfect storm. 

That's why they are killing off the poor old pensioners.  

[oowee]

46 minutes ago, TIGHTCHOKE said:

That's why they are killing off the poor old pensioners.  

Only the poor 🤐

Edited October 28 by oowee

[marsh man]

23 minutes ago, oowee said:

Only the poor 🤐

That would cover 99% of the o a ps , me included 

[Mungler]

3 hours ago, oowee said:

Certainly productivity in the UK is weak but add in the fundamental flaw that the success of the economy is based on growth that requires a continually growing population. We cannot afford a proportionally growing elderly population and at the same time increasing of benefits. 

Add in the economic contraction of Brexit (4%) the associated increase in energy costs (£370m), the need to significantly strengthen and restructure our armed forces, re model public services etc and we have the ingredients for a perfect storm. 

And if by magic, in today’s news, fertility rates at their lowest for 100 years.

https://news.sky.com/story/fertility-rate-in-england-and-wales-falls-to-lowest-level-since-records-began-in-1938-13243333
 

and demographically it’s not the indigenous who are breeding - extrapolate the data set and this country will not be this country in 25 years. Demographics are destiny after all. 

The problem is rather than encourage the law abiding tax productive middle classes to have more children (say with cheaper larger houses, childcare and tax breaks etc) the powers that be are importing benefits hungry non net contributors and in enormous quantities.

We are all going to be worse off than we are right now for sure.

And incidentally this podcast about ‘growth’ and its importance is an absolute belter.

[Mungler]

And as for UK economic contraction following Brexit, would this be the same European wide economic contraction effecting all European countries, particularly following covid and the Ukraine war?

.

Edited October 28 by Mungler

[oowee]

6 minutes ago, Mungler said:

And as for UK economic contraction following Brexit, would this be the same European wide economic contraction effecting all European countries, particularly following covid and the Ukraine war?

.

No. 

[hushpower]

Frightening  i am 60 very small p/pension 1 btl property no mortgage on. A fair bit of savings. Knocked my working week down to 4 days this year  going to knock it down to 3 days early next year. Living at home with mother who is very elderly. And i need a new hip shortly  runs in the family. My day  off i chose to have off was on a Wednesday  for pigeon shooting weekend brigade reasons  but not played ball this season. Lol

[Lloyd90]

29 minutes ago, hushpower said:

Frightening  i am 60 very small p/pension 1 btl property no mortgage on. A fair bit of savings. Knocked my working week down to 4 days this year  going to knock it down to 3 days early next year. Living at home with mother who is very elderly. And i need a new hip shortly  runs in the family. My day  off i chose to have off was on a Wednesday  for pigeon shooting weekend brigade reasons  but not played ball this season. Lol

Move into your BTL for a bit, then sell it as your main home.

No capital gains. 

Then sell it, trickling the money into a SIPP over the next few years for your max tax contribution / top up. 

Then tax up to 25% tax free “lump sum”. 
 

 

1 hour ago, Mungler said:

And if by magic, in today’s news, fertility rates at their lowest for 100 years.

https://news.sky.com/story/fertility-rate-in-england-and-wales-falls-to-lowest-level-since-records-began-in-1938-13243333
 

and demographically it’s not the indigenous who are breeding - extrapolate the data set and this country will not be this country in 25 years. Demographics are destiny after all. 

The problem is rather than encourage the law abiding tax productive middle classes to have more children (say with cheaper larger houses, childcare and tax breaks etc) the powers that be are importing benefits hungry non net contributors and in enormous quantities.

We are all going to be worse off than we are right now for sure.

And incidentally this podcast about ‘growth’ and its importance is an absolute belter.

Saw some stats yesterday, said that having 3 kids in 2020 is the equivalent financial burden of 10 kids in the 1980’s. 
 

£1100 a month nursery fees for my 1 year old to go 3 days a week. 
 

Madness… 

[JohnfromUK]

9 minutes ago, Lloyd90 said:

Move into your BTL for a bit, then sell it as your main home.

No capital gains. 

You only get CGT relief for the time you live in that property.  Details here;

https://cloudcogroup.com/how-to-avoid-capital-gains-tax-on-buy-to-let-property/

[sitsinhedges]

9 minutes ago, Lloyd90 said:

Move into your BTL for a bit, then sell it as your main home.

No capital gains. 

Then sell it, trickling the money into a SIPP over the next few years for your max tax contribution / top up. 

Then tax up to 25% tax free “lump sum”. 
 

 

Saw some stats yesterday, said that having 3 kids in 2020 is the equivalent financial burden of 10 kids in the 1980’s. 
 

£1100 a month nursery fees for my 1 year old to go 3 days a week. 
 

Madness… 

It doesn't work like that. You can only put each year you live in it against each year it was rented out. It would have to be an equal number at least to cancel the capital gains tax liability.

 

[Lloyd90]

Very helpful, thanks gents, the MIL keeps saying she’s going to do the above I told her I’m sure it don’t work like that!! 
 

Now I know  

[Mungler]

7 hours ago, oowee said:

No. 

So why do all the eurozone country graphs follow the same pattern / trajectories and with a mystifying and inexplicable ‘off a cliff dip’ in 2020-2022?

Surely those eurozone countries should be charging ahead further into the eurozone land of milk and honey and the German economy shouldn’t be in a second year of decline?

[oowee]

2 hours ago, Mungler said:

So why do all the eurozone country graphs follow the same pattern / trajectories and with a mystifying and inexplicable ‘off a cliff dip’ in 2020-2022?

Surely those eurozone countries should be charging ahead further into the eurozone land of milk and honey and the German economy shouldn’t be in a second year of decline?

That's an obfuscation.  The 4% economic contraction is measured as a direct result of Brexit over and above global economic changes. Same as the hike in energy bills, its an additional impact over an above the wider increases in fuel costs seen across Europe.

[Sawyet]

I have been reading this with interest as Wife & I are at 56/58 just about to sell our Business & retire. We have no pensions as we have always bought property & rented it out (both revenue & capital appreciation) but in the current climate, along with an awful lot of other small landlords we are selling up as the future for the rental market does not look attractive.

The one thing that has struck me reading through the posts (was very pointedly noted by the Financial Advisor we use) is that you have to look at your income based over the whole course of your retirement (our guys use 85 as a standard finish age). This means that due to inflation/indexation the comfortable income you have now will struggle to keep you the same in 5/10/15/20 years time, its crucial that your "pot" grows to allow for increases in the cost of living which are inevitable.

[Mungler]

1 hour ago, oowee said:

That's an obfuscation.  The 4% economic contraction is measured as a direct result of Brexit over and above global economic changes. Same as the hike in energy bills, its an additional impact over an above the wider increases in fuel costs seen across Europe.

But it’s the same patterned contraction across the eurozone particularly and demonstrably skewered by Covid - not Brexit. Surely, the graphs would show UK dipping whilst those in the milk and honey Eurozone soldiered on and into the dizzy heights of post Brexit eurozone growth and prosperity?

Indeed, we’re about to see 5 years of tanking in the UK economy - no doubt all the remoaners will reach back to decade old news and events as the reason, and the sane of us will point to the clown show term of the Labour government. 

Edited October 29 by Mungler

[oowee]

32 minutes ago, Mungler said:

But it’s the same patterned contraction across the eurozone particularly and demonstrably skewered by Covid - not Brexit. Surely, the graphs would show UK dipping whilst those in the milk and honey Eurozone soldiered on and into the dizzy heights of post Brexit eurozone growth and prosperity?

Indeed, we’re about to see 5 years of tanking in the UK economy - no doubt all the remoaners will reach back to decade old news and events as the reason, and the sane of us will point to the clown show term of the Labour government. 

I take the advice of the team of economists working at the OBR. I accept though that it's now somewhat dated. With the recent introduction of Border checks it would be reasonable to assume a significant increase in the size of the contraction. The Border Target Operating Model shows increasing controls throughout 2024 particularly on bio security. I see today another example of the difficulties. 

I am sure a way around will be found it's just the fiscal drag that we have to live with.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/oct/29/post-brexit-border-checks-putting-food-security-at-risk-produce-sellers-warn

[Mungler]

1 hour ago, oowee said:

I take the advice of the team of economists working at the OBR. I accept though that it's now somewhat dated. With the recent introduction of Border checks it would be reasonable to assume a significant increase in the size of the contraction. The Border Target Operating Model shows increasing controls throughout 2024 particularly on bio security. I see today another example of the difficulties. 

I am sure a way around will be found it's just the fiscal drag that we have to live with.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/oct/29/post-brexit-border-checks-putting-food-security-at-risk-produce-sellers-warn

This is all tiresome regulatory tit for tat. They check our stuff going out a bazillion times, we check their stuff coming in a bazillion times.

I can’t make much sense of the world right now, particularly all that goes with gender ideology (and all the accompanying virtue signalling), de facto open boarders and the economic self harm of the green agenda - throwing the German car industry on that alter is a real mystery to me.

I had hoped for a realignment of Europe to the right focused on trade and business but Covid and taxation have just sucked the life out of people - there’s no desire to crack on and made a quid or two like there was in the 80’s, and post this coming budget, there will be zero incentive.

.

 

Edited October 29 by Mungler

[JohnfromUK]

Just now, Mungler said:

This is all tiresome regulatory tit for tat

Cushy jobs for lots of civil servants.  Only problem being they can't work from home!

[shaun4860]

16 hours ago, oowee said:

That's an obfuscation.  

Did you just make that word up 🤔

[London Best]

8 hours ago, shaun4860 said:

Did you just make that word up 🤔

Get him with the swear filter!

[marsh man]

10 hours ago, shaun4860 said:

Did you just make that word up 🤔

I will keep that word in my memory bank for when I am watching Countdown 

[oowee]

11 hours ago, shaun4860 said:

Did you just make that word up 🤔

🤣 It's living next to J R Mogg.

[shaun4860]

24 minutes ago, oowee said:

🤣 It's living next to J R Mogg.

🤣