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China and Taiwan. It’s when not if now


Mungler
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6 hours ago, ditchman said:

sorry cant see it happening.....China have far to much to lose......they have been watching Russia ......what else do you do when you have a £trillion trade surplus

An attempt on a well defended island that is intent on not becoming part of China does appear to me to be ‘not worth it.

But looking at Ukraine and the cost benefit to Russia, we are reminded that anything can happen.

History has shown us that those in charge over us like a national common enemy in difficult times, and if things falter for the Chinese communist party, the economy or the man in charge then nothing holds it together like a war.

Incidentally, Ukraine showed us that as long as no one reaches for the nukes then its traditional warfare and stocks of men and basic munitions is what you need more on than the other side, and China has way more of everything and the industrial capacity to build machines of war.

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Edited by Mungler
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53 minutes ago, JKD said:

The only way that that "assault ship" could be 'amphibious' is if it got close to shore and the tide went out 🙄

The article suggests they run them a ground and use them as a platform / bridge to unload from other vessels. For the Chinese easy, cheap and quick to knock up in a couple of months. Indeed, I can’t see any other purpose for building these. 

Edited by Mungler
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They arent barges, landing barges are flat bottomed, its propaganda as that deep water hull form wont work in shallow water. Chinese can shut down Taiwan in v short order by sanctioning Semi-conductor raw materials anyway, and as for beating the US as they cross 4000 miles of the Pacific, its not like the Chinese wont see them coming is it, so not really a problem with hypersonic missiles/Carrier killers. Anyhow the US is a maritime power, notoriously sensitive to casualties, China has a massive and well eqipped groundforce with minimal sensitivity wrt casualties, so what would happen to the US Army if it did get ashore? After 22 years in MoD, which has qualified me in detecting political BS when I see/hear it, I am more worried about the disapearance/capability of the British Army/Navy and RAF and the future effects of Rachell Reeves and Granny harmer on our armed forces........

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39 minutes ago, murray smith said:

They arent barges, landing barges are flat bottomed, its propaganda as that deep water hull form wont work in shallow water. Chinese can shut down Taiwan in v short order by sanctioning Semi-conductor raw materials anyway, and as for beating the US as they cross 4000 miles of the Pacific, its not like the Chinese wont see them coming is it, so not really a problem with hypersonic missiles/Carrier killers. Anyhow the US is a maritime power, notoriously sensitive to casualties, China has a massive and well eqipped groundforce with minimal sensitivity wrt casualties, so what would happen to the US Army if it did get ashore? After 22 years in MoD, which has qualified me in detecting political BS when I see/hear it, I am more worried about the disapearance/capability of the British Army/Navy and RAF and the future effects of Rachell Reeves and Granny harmer on our armed forces........


Interesting insight. Thank you. 

I couldn’t agree more about the critical under funding and under resourcing of our armed forces. The bigger issue however is that ‘love of country and history’ has been systematically erased from the young and getting people to join up in numbers in a conflict will be difficult.

If I was under 30 and asked to fight for my country; well, I’m not too sure what my country is any more or what it stands for nor can I see a set of values or any cause promoted of any government of the last 50 years worth dying for.

I suppose the next evolution will be tiers of Olympic armchair gamers running fleets of drones from their parents’ basements.
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Edited by Mungler
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1 hour ago, Mungler said:

The article suggests they run them a ground and use them as a platform / bridge to unload from other vessels. For the Chinese easy, cheap and quick to knock up in a couple of months. Indeed, I can’t see any other purpose for building these. 

And these 'amphibious ships that are run aground aren't going to topple over then ? Some sort of built-in balancing system perhaps 🤔 😏

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3 minutes ago, JKD said:

And these 'amphibious ships that are run aground aren't going to topple over then ? Some sort of built-in balancing system perhaps 🤔 😏

The article suggests that they are big bridges only. Can’t see from the photos what the front looks like, but the article suggests that they are run aground and then hang out at sea so that other larger landing craft use it like a pontoon. 

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1 hour ago, TIGHTCHOKE said:

I thought that closed years ago.

It did, the US have very little presence in Taiwan, likely less than 100 troops, probably embassy defence and advisors.

IF, China decided to invade, theres very little the US could do to stop them, they have local resources in Japan and the Philippines, but unless the announce the invasion 3 months ahead, theres no way the US could mobilise in time to prevent it, and if they tried, using carrier based assets, so close to the Chinese mainland, they would suffer significant losses.
Would the US risk it, I highly doubt it, they would make a big noise, but in effect they would leave the Taiwanese to it, who would likely surrender very quickly, its a fight they just cant win.
Would China do it, knowing its going to cost them in lost trade ?
At this moment in time, no, BUT, things change.

https://youngkim.house.gov/2024/05/28/shut-down-the-world-mccaul-warns-of-global-economic-catastrophe-if-china-invades-taiwan/#:~:text=He stressed that a full,and suburban areas%2C he suggested.

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China are forecast to surpass even the United States economically sometimes between 2030-2035. This will be the first time since the 1890’s that America have been knocked off the top spot.

 

From the Chinese government perspective, why start a war when they already have the infrastructure to achieve dominance economically? Unlike the west, they don’t have ludicrous policies like net zero holding back their growth either.

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