EU Referendum

[grrclark]

But you're not going to, you'll get one version off the "ins" and another off the "outs". The truth, as in simple unbiased facts, will never ever come out in public.

That is because there are no simple unbiased facts and not because of some sort of mega state conspiracy, it is because it is all hugely complex.

 

The message issued by each side is going to have to be reasoned opinion and argument and that has to move beyond the basic rhetoric of Britain good, EU bad.

Edited October 15, 2015 by grrclark

[rodp]

Well aware of this, that's why 99.999% of votes will be based on emotion, and that's what both parties will play on. Facts, apart from overly simplistic ones, will be very few and far between as they'll be seen as irrelevant.

 

Be interesting to see what dirty tricks the government come up with this time, if there is a "this time"

[pimpkiller]

I absolutely guarantee the ins will say if you want to leave you are a little islander racist.

[grrclark]

I absolutely guarantee the ins will say if you want to leave you are a little islander racist.

Some will of course, but that is just small minded idiocy. Equally some of the outs will say that the people who want to stay in are traitors or such like, again small minded idiocy.

[AVB]

I think the EU exit would be simpler and quicker than Scotland independence. We already have all our own infrastructure (central bank, armed forces, currency etc.) and therefore whilst new agreements would need to be drafted and agreed it would be quicker than having to set up a completely new infrastructure which would have been the case of Jock exit. I say 1-2 years vs 4-5. My opinion only though.

[oowee]

But you're not going to, you'll get one version off the "ins" and another off the "outs". The truth, as in simple unbiased facts, will never ever come out in public.

What is the truth? We will be ok in and we will be ok out, there will be arguents for both sides but its not a simple truth to tell. It comes down to if you believe in being part of a team or you want to plough your own furrow. Do you believe the uk is a stronger nation on its own or as part of the group of euro nations? A team does not always play the way you would want it to but maybe the team is more effective than a sole player.

[grrclark]

I think the EU exit would be simpler and quicker than Scotland independence. We already have all our own infrastructure (central bank, armed forces, currency etc.) and therefore whilst new agreements would need to be drafted and agreed it would be quicker than having to set up a completely new infrastructure which would have been the case of Jock exit. I say 1-2 years vs 4-5. My opinion only though.

I think that you're right, it would be much less arduous than Scotland seceding from the UK, but it will still be a hellishly painful process. That is not to say that we shouldn't do it for that reason, if the rewards are greater then we just need to roll our sleeves up and crack on.

 

I think 1-2 years would be optimistic given that it will take 1-2 years just to get to the point of a referendum. I think the EU members would make it like swimming in treacle.

[rodp]

What is the truth? We will be ok in and we will be ok out, there will be arguents for both sides but its not a simple truth to tell. It comes down to if you believe in being part of a team or you want to plough your own furrow. Do you believe the uk is a stronger nation on its own or as part of the group of euro nations? A team does not always play the way you would want it to but maybe the team is more effective than a sole player.

Perhaps that's the difference between the two parties, personally I've never been a team player, either at work or in sport. I don't need others to assist / get in the way.

[oowee]

Perhaps that's the difference between the two parties, personally I've never been a team player, either at work or in sport. I don't need others to assist / get in the way.

Thats got me thinking. Pigeon shooting is mostly a non team activity. I wonder if that means that most of the forum members as shooters would vote to go it alone??

[rodp]

Could be

[chris1961]

Eu it's so corrupted that they can't even a count for the billions that they spend and wast on fancy new buildings

And expenses

[Pheasant Feeder]

A big concern is if the vote goes in favour of leaving the EU, and the government don't like the result.

 

Didn't something happen like that in Ireland a few years back?

[manthing]

I have no problem with the Common Market as it was, what I can't get on with is all the extra governing bodies we have to pay for.

Also not a fan of the open borders policy.

[SneakyD]

Much as in the Scottish referendum, I don't understand why money is the main thrust of this debate. Whether you believe in EU sovereignty or UK sovereignty what kind of person sells their citizenship to the highest bidder . Does money matter to you, to such an extent?

[pimpkiller]

There will never be a true reason for the in out thing because the different governments won't want all of the distasteful things being made public.

[Rewulf]

Reading some of the comments on this thread remind me so much of many similar discussion during the Scottish referendum. Lots of polarised views with people determined that their point of view is correct based simply on strength of feeling and very little else.

 

The EU issue will be exceptionally complex with many significant implications should we vote to leave. The process will take years with masses of legal argument over a multitude of things.

 

As with anything else countries and large corporates have vested interests and they will seek to get the best possible individual advantage that they can through any secession process, of course that will be true for both British and non British interests. One thing is absolutely certain though is that the remainder of the EU will do their absolute best to disrupt the strength of London's financial markets and try and get some of that for their own. Likewise with manufacturing by people like Nissan, Honda and Toyota in the UK, the EU car makers will seek to influence the rules to prevent these brands selling British manufactured cars on the continent, the UK motor industry employs 250,000 people. There will be hundreds of similar examples, albeit non on quite the same scale.

 

Another quick example is that the British defence industry is still one of our largest manufacturing sectors and we are the 2nd largest exporter in the world, after the US, and there will be competition from rival countries in the EU that will try and use a Brexit to further their own industries at the cost of ours through shrinking our market share using EU competition rules. We also benefit through alliances in the defence industry with EU partners and that could also be challenged.

 

The numbers involved in these three examples dwarf the cost of being an EU member.

 

I very much hope that the information presented by both sides can get beyond flag waving jingoism, destructive nationalism or fear mongering. We need to be given meaningful information that allow us to make a reasoned decision, there will never be any absolutes or certainties, but we should not be leaping into the dark.

 

I did vote to leave in this poll as I answered honestly based on my current thoughts, but it is very marginal. Had it been the actual vote I would not have been so quick to tick the box.

 

My vote in this poll was based on the political makeup of the EU and I think it is a dreadful organisation and hugely ineffective, the current migration/refugee crisis has highlighted that perfectly and just a few months ago the Grexit possibility further highlighted just how dysfunctional the cabal is.

 

Sadly the decision to be made in the referendum is not just based on politics, it has a massive underlying economic consideration and I am entirely uncertain how that may play out. I shall be doing an awful lot of reading and research over the next few months and shall then fly the flag for the side that I will champion.

 

There is also an added complication for Scottish interests in the EU referendum too and that is very unwelcome from my perspective.

 

Excellent post as usual Grr.

Just one or two points.

 

You say that the issue is complex and will take years to get to an actual Brexit.

I believe the pro EU forces in the UK and abroad will make it as complex as they can,whilst stalling for time,possibly hoping for regime change ect.

I think its quite simple,the people vote in the referendum for OUT ,we tell the EU we are out as from a certain date (Think of it like a tenancy agreement)

If any business's are directly affected by this,it would be up to them to sort through it.

Because ,lets face it,it is up to them how they run 'their ' business,not the government.

 

The UK car industry only exists today because foreign manufacturers build cars here.

Why would they not buy these cars, just because they are made in the UK and the UK is not part of the EU ?

Japanese manufacturers work hand in hand with European manufacturers these days ,Renault/Nissan, Ford/Mazda ect.

The motor industry world wide struggles these days,why would they limit or destroy their markets?

 

Defence,bit of a double edged sword this one.

Whilst no one can deny joint EU projects have cost massively over the odds,produced inferior kit and reek of corruption and back handers.

It is one thing the UK does well.

But most of our home grown products are sold outside the EU,Africa and the Middle east in particular.

Also who actually owns these companies? Private ,shareholders or the State ?

 

Whilst on the subject,communications and power?

Dont the French and Germans own most of these in the UK?

What are they going to do about that ?

Switch them off,or up sticks and leave ?

I think not.

The whole thing is as simple as ' They ' want it to be ,or not.

The people making it complex are the ones that dont want to leave.

[grrclark]

Rewulf, I do agree with the gist of your points and so far as we are concerned we could give a hard date when we exit the EU. That would be fine for some things like our contributions to the EU, acts of legislation that we could opt out of, movement of people, etc, but my suspicion is that we would also become embroiled in years of lawsuits around a number of different issues.

 

Although we may not be beholden to EU rules there are loads of international treaties that we are and I suspect that very big business and national interests would manipulate circumstance as much as they possibly could for their own gain. That works both ways of course.

 

On the car front there are quotas on what products can be brought into the EU for resale, hence why the Japanese manufacturers built factories here, if we step out the EU then that quota becomes effective so a massive impact on the UK vehicle industry. Of course the industry itself would lobby to find a solution, but that plays back into my last point, if we set an exit date of say 24 months that could seriously impact on the business interest of Nissan, Toyota & Honda so they would lobby via their government to influence and there would be international court challenges making the 24 months perhaps not achievable in a complete sense. The most likely outcome is that they would relocate operations overseas into mainland Europe and choose a cheaper geography to move to, that will certainly be a threat played out by the "In" campaign.

 

As for defence your point is fair that we have a huge export market outside of the EU so perhaps less of an impact. It was just an example of where we have huge national interest that we need to think about what the consequence may be from being within or outside the EU, I honestly don't know. They are publicly owned businesses.

 

On the communications front most of our landline and mobile communications are publicly listed companies and as these services are part of our key critical infrastructure they are subject to special control measures if needs be so no danger of them being turned off.

 

As I said I do agree with the gist of your argument that it is as complex as those with vested interests in the EU make it, but sadly we can't unilaterally untangle ourselves from them. Again the complexities of leaving should not be a reason in itself to stay in.

[sandspider]

Just to say, I appreciate your posts grrclark. Well thought out, thorough and balanced. It's hard to get a viewpoint that isn't either rabidly out or rabidly in!

 

Thank you, something to think about.

[Les*1066]

We need to leave the EU and take control of our country again. The common market started out as a good idea, but what we have now is a dictatorship. Definitely time to leave.

[Rewulf]

Again the complexities of leaving should not be a reason in itself to stay in.

 

We are on the same page then

[Nial]

But they get no say in the process that they have to conform to.

 

Only their trade, the same as Norway, the rest of their economy isn't lumbered with EU red tape and regulations.

[KFC]

The second largest steelworks in europe closing. Qwned by a Thailand company. One of the factors mentioned has been the cost of power being much higher here than in Europe.

Looking at statistics for pretty much everything then there is such a variation that a level playing field is impossible and the idea of a cohesive trading block is pretty much redundant.

As Nige says, a great ideal but a massive experiment that has failed miserably.

 

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/oct/12/redcar-steelworks-receiver-confirms-closure

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:Electricity_prices_for_industrial_consumers,_second_half_2014_%28%C2%B9%29_%28EUR_per_kWh%29_YB15.png

[secretagentmole]

Much as in the Scottish referendum, I don't understand why money is the main thrust of this debate. Whether you believe in EU sovereignty or UK sovereignty what kind of person sells their citizenship to the highest bidder . Does money matter to you, to such an extent?

Quite simple really, we are wasting billions and having to impose austerity measures to prop up an organisation that cannot account for where the money goes and a currency we do not have. With all those billions back in our economy we would be able to afford the National Health Service for a start! Furthermore if we say to nice Mr EU resident sorry, you will have to stay in your own country and claim your own benefits, our benefit system will be relieved of a fair whack of pressure too, not to mention our housing!

[srspower]

Leaving the EU will make no difference at all, we shall still have to abide by every piece of legislation they create if we want to continue to trade within it only we will not have any say on it. Except of course the ECHR, personally I like having human rights ...

[sitsinhedges]

Leaving the EU will make no difference at all, we shall still have to abide by every piece of legislation they create if we want to continue to trade within it only we will not have any say on it. Except of course the ECHR, personally I like having human rights ...

 

Not as much as the chancers turning up on our shores with their hands out. Do you really think we would have less rights if the UK was entirely self governing and you had direct access to those who formulate our laws by way of your MP?