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Putin announces 'military operation' in Ukraine.


Dave-G
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17 hours ago, Mungler said:


1. You should try questioning some of the Russian propaganda and decisions in this.
I dont need to , you and most of western media do a fine job of that.
The fact I dont often question it , doesnt mean I support it , as much as I go to great pains to constantly state...
I do not support Russia, or its invasion of Ukraine, but lets put this idea of Ukraine being some shining light of freedom in eastern Europe to bed, they are a corrupt, gangster government, using soviet era doctrine to run the country.
The fact that the west has poured money into to it , to somehow 'turn' them from the dark side, clearly hasnt worked.
To summarise, they are no better morally, than Russia.

2. He is mad or at best poorly advised / informed. It’s a consequence of his isolation and love of Peter the Great. The fact that you cant conceive either of these as possibilities (or indeed that the invasion of the Ukraine by Russia as not one of the best ideas or plans yet) belies your partisan status - your choice but for all your crowing about how we need to open our eye to all that is wrong with Ukraine and Zelensky you don’t, can’t or won’t for Russia or Putin.
Youve made a whole raft of assumptions there, Ill try to address them , but I fear Im wasting my time.
You have no idea if hes mad, this is just parroting western media of a couple months back, take note , they dont say it any more for some reason, draw whatever conclusion from that.
Ill advised ? You have no idea of that either, is he in direct control of the armed forces, I highly doubt it, generals make mistakes, and the fact they are fighting a well equipped army in Ukraine , is a bit different to when we usually go to war against goat herders.
Isolation ? How do you know this , a hunch ?
Ive  said before , half the populace of Russia and Ukraine revere Peter the great, its not abnormal.

So yes , I certainly can conceive of these possibilities, I certainly dont believe there is much weight to them.

My partisan status ? Pot , kettle, black.
 

3. For someone who says he’s anti BS you willing accept Russian BS in all its forms. 
Where have I accepted it ? There are 2 sides to every story, if you only choose to listen to one , then you will be subject to bias, coercion , and conditioning.
You dont need to accept the other side, but you MUST listen to it.
The issue is , western governments have made serious efforts to censor 'the other side'  , this is a tactic straight out of the pages of dystopian novels.

4. I wasn’t using an old event as comparison. I am making the point that some actions can’t be justified, explained or provided with any balance or mitigation. 

Read my answer to 3 again , some actions cant be justified, explained or mitigated , but there is no court or tribunal in a free country that will refuse to listen to justification, mitigation or explanation for any crime.
The defendant always gets to plead it case.

What we have here , is a refusal to do that, we have become a soviet style kangaroo court with prejudice.

This is a bit of a rabbit hole, but if you can be bothered to read it , might give you an idea of where Im coming from.

https://www.stopfake.org/en/russian-media-nazi-concentration-camp-and-secret-prison-fakes/

This is a fact checking site trying to debunk an accusation that a unit of neo nazi type paramilitaries https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aidar_Battalion (the ones that dont exist) operated a base near the front lines in Donbass, that carried out imprisonment, torture and execution in 2014-15
Some of the 'evidence' the fact checkers used , was amongst others:

They couldnt find any bodies, so there couldnt have been executions.
There was no torture equipment left behind (after 8 years) so no evidence of torture.
Victims of torture who gave statements had no visible injuries.
It was too close to the front lines, so couldnt possibly have been used as a prison.
Best of all, none of the victims took any footage of them being tortured, so no real evidence !

The UN, AI , and other human rights groups all accuse the Aidar battaiion of war crimes, central government in Kiev did nothing about it, despite protestations from Ukraine controlled Luhansk.
In April 2015, the Ukrainian government-appointed Governor of Luhansk Hennadiy Moskal stated that Aidar battalion was "terrorizing the region" and asked Ukrainian Defense Ministry to rein in its members after a series of thefts, including ambulances and the takeover of a bread factory.[31]

Allegations of human rights violations and war crimes[edit]

In July 2014, Russia began a criminal investigation of Aidar's commander, Serhiy Melnychuk, for "organizing the killing of civilians".[26] Its volunteer pilot, Nadiya Savchenko, was captured by pro-Russian separatists near Luhansk, transported to Russia and charged with killing two Russian journalists.[27][28]

On 8 September 2014 Amnesty International claimed that the battalion had committed war crimes, including abductions, unlawful detention, ill-treatment, theft, extortion, and possible executions.[18]

Now Serhiy Melnychuk is an interesting character, He was voted into parliament in 2014 with the Radical Party, then headed by Oleh Lyashko, whose political movement has no seats in the current legislature.
Oleh Lyashko is also a lovely man , who says things like .

During the Annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation in 2014, he introduced a bill which classified participants of the "separatist rallies for joining Russia", as well as those who obstruct the movement of soldiers and military equipment, to be saboteurs and accomplices of the occupiers. At the time of "military aggression" the death penalty should be applied to them.

So if you support Russia in any way , even protesting , you should be killed ? Very soviet.

Another notable commander in Aidar, MP and Euromaidan organiser, whose party Peoples front, often translated as National front , but was originally called 'Fatherland'

The Battalion has gained notoriety due to its members' far-right views.[citation needed] Two Swedish neo-Nazis from the Svenskarnas parti joined Aidar in 2013 and 2014 and made headlines in the Swedish and German media, since one of the Nazis was running for a local council in elections, and the same media heavily criticized the Nazi mercenaries and, among other things, the Third Reich-inspired[citation needed] motto of the battalion.[23][24][25]

 

Takes all sorts I suppose.

Edited by Rewulf
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3 minutes ago, ditchman said:

see putin has got outa his pram about the killing of his good mates daughter.........and accused the Ukraines......so now we will see a retaliation....and zelensky will now be targeted......

You would have thought he was a primary target from the beginning, but being the darling of western media makes killing him a very unpopular action.
But I feel his star is now in the descendent , is it now his time to exit stage left ?

Like Ive said, the situation is becoming boring to the masses, and the financial impact is being felt, while Russia has not achieved its easy victory, neither has western help , and Ukrainian bravery achieved its aims of bringing Russia to its military and economic knees.
Stagnation seems to be resulting in the winds of change.

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1 hour ago, Rewulf said:

You would have thought he was a primary target from the beginning, but being the darling of western media makes killing him a very unpopular action.
But I feel his star is now in the descendent , is it now his time to exit stage left ?

Like Ive said, the situation is becoming boring to the masses, and the financial impact is being felt, while Russia has not achieved its easy victory, neither has western help , and Ukrainian bravery achieved its aims of bringing Russia to its military and economic knees.
Stagnation seems to be resulting in the winds of change.

Have patience its coming. 

 

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1 hour ago, Rewulf said:

You would have thought he was a primary target from the beginning, but being the darling of western media makes killing him a very unpopular action.
But I feel his star is now in the descendent , is it now his time to exit stage left ?

Like Ive said, the situation is becoming boring to the masses, and the financial impact is being felt, while Russia has not achieved its easy victory, neither has western help , and Ukrainian bravery achieved its aims of bringing Russia to its military and economic knees.
Stagnation seems to be resulting in the winds of change.

proberly end up like a north and south Korea

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1 hour ago, ditchman said:

see putin has got outa his pram about the killing of his good mates daughter.........and accused the Ukraines......so now we will see a retaliation....and zelensky will now be targeted......

Do you think he has / is not already a target.

1 hour ago, Rewulf said:

You would have thought he was a primary target from the beginning, but being the darling of western media makes killing him a very unpopular action.
But I feel his star is now in the descendent , is it now his time to exit stage left ?

Like Ive said, the situation is becoming boring to the masses, and the financial impact is being felt, while Russia has not achieved its easy victory, neither has western help , and Ukrainian bravery achieved its aims of bringing Russia to its military and economic knees.
Stagnation seems to be resulting in the winds of change.

Do you think the Russians care about the popularity of their decisions, invading Ukraine was quite unpopular 🤔

Edited by ordnance
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3 minutes ago, ditchman said:

proberly end up like a north and south Korea

The probability of this seemed remote a few months ago when western help seemed to be upping a gear.
Now I think a half and half scenario is more likely.
The problem is , the Russian held parts are the better bits, they have ports, industry and gas, this wont sit well with Ukraine, but I cant see what they can do about it.

As much as we could end up with a divided Ukraine, constantly at war with each other, this wont help either side emotionally or economically.
Again , the bar to some kind of deal.. and peace , is the current regime in Kyiv.
Its not a good situation, and its not right, but the longer it goes on , the harder it becomes to fix issue.

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3 minutes ago, ordnance said:

Do you think the Russians care about the popularity of their decisions 🤔

I think there is a limit to who and how you kill in these situations, Ill explain.

If they could put a bullet in Zelenskys head, they would , remove him from the equation, but its highly likely he would be replaced with someone of similar mind , then youve achieved nothing, except the need to do it again.

If they could drop a missile onto a meeting with Zelensky and heads of staff, this would be more effective, but with a huge amount of air defence around his persona , difficult.
Its also likely to create a large amount of collateral, a possible media nightmare.
Even worse would be if they killed his wife and kids in the attack, its the type of thing that sticks in peoples minds.

I dont think the Russian military are remotely bothered if they killed 5000 people and their wives and kids, damn if they could nuke Kyiv they would.
But are they prepared to stand the fallout of doing such a thing ? No.
The proof of what Im saying , is that they havent already done it .

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25 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

I think there is a limit to who and how you kill in these situations, Ill explain.

If they could put a bullet in Zelenskys head, they would , remove him from the equation, but its highly likely he would be replaced with someone of similar mind , then youve achieved nothing, except the need to do it again.

If they could drop a missile onto a meeting with Zelensky and heads of staff, this would be more effective, but with a huge amount of air defence around his persona , difficult.
Its also likely to create a large amount of collateral, a possible media nightmare.
Even worse would be if they killed his wife and kids in the attack, its the type of thing that sticks in peoples minds.

I dont think the Russian military are remotely bothered if they killed 5000 people and their wives and kids, damn if they could nuke Kyiv they would.
But are they prepared to stand the fallout of doing such a thing ? No.
The proof of what Im saying , is that they havent already done it .

They could have removed him before the war even started and few people in the west would even knew who he was. But they thought he and his administration would have been on the first plane out of the country, nothing to do with popularity, just another in a long list of miscalculations by Putin / Russia.

Edited by ordnance
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Russian special forces tried to specifically kill Zelensky early on - oh hang on, don't tell me that was Ukrainian false news.

As for pointing out how horrible the Ukrainians are and that they are Nazis and all the rest (whilst remaining silent as to the failings of the Russians):

1. Ukraine was invaded.

2. Ukraine neither wanted to be invaded nor become 100% Russian

3. Russia did not "need" to send 250,000 troops over the border

4. "Wagner Group"

As for the torture right here and now, the Russian conscript phone intercepts are all you need to know about to make your mind up - oh hang on, don't tell me that was Ukrainian false news. And it's all the worse because of course Russia were / are the aggressing force who needlessly invaded a neighbor when they didn't have to. Indeed, all the calls for diplomacy and talks don't apply to Russia or weren't a step Russia needed to consider right up to the point of invading a neighbour?

In all these pages i still don't think I've seen you or Stonepark say anything significantly critical of Putin - no doubt you will now find something to say which is critical and cutting to the Russian core like Putin tries too hard, is bad at delegating and doesn't like Monday mornings 🙂

May be you and Stonepark will get to share a nice Dacha when this is all over 🙂

.

 

Edited by Mungler
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3 minutes ago, ordnance said:

They could have removed him before the war even started and few people in the west would even knew who he was. But they thought he and his administration would have been on the first plane out of the country, nothing to do with popularity, just another in a long list of miscalculations by Putin / Russia.

If you remember right back to the beginning, my theory was that Russia didnt actually intend to invade, rather to sabre rattle and intimidate.
When this didnt work, they hastily put together an ill thought out invasion plan, the results of which were plain to see.

So there was no need to remove Zelensky at that point ?

5 minutes ago, Mungler said:

Russian special forces tried to specifically kill Zelensky early on - oh hang on, don't tell me that was Ukrainian false news.

They werent that 'special' then were they ? 😆
 

5 minutes ago, Mungler said:

As for pointing out how horrible the Ukrainians are and that they are Nazis and all the rest (whilst remaining silent as to the failings of the Russians):

1. Ukraine was invaded.

2. Ukraine neither wanted to be invaded nor become 100% Russian

3. Russia did not "need" to send 250,000 troops over the border

4. "Wagner Group"

Your point is ?
Are we going to keep stating the obvious, going over old ground ?
Besides your ground breaking plan of 'Russia should just withdraw !' do you have anything constructive to add, to how this can be resolved.?
Preferably without the total destruction of Ukraine, European economic collapse , or a nuclear exchange that has us all glowing in the dark ?

 

9 minutes ago, Mungler said:

In all these pages i still don't think I've seen you or Stonepark say anything significantly critical of Putin - no doubt you will now find something to say which is critical and cutting to the Russian core like Putin tries too hard, is bad at delegating and doesn't like Monday mornings 🙂

May be you and Stonepark will get to share a nice Dacha when this is all over 🙂

What on earth would be the point ?
Every man and his dog knows Putins a very nasty piece of work, why do you need confirmation?
I could counter with saying youve never criticised Zelensky, but its a pointless argument, I dont actually care if you think hes the 2nd coming , or as big a gangster as Vlad.

4 minutes ago, Gordon R said:

The more realistic bar is Putin.

Which one do you think is more (re)movable ?

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1 hour ago, Rewulf said:

 


Again , the bar to some kind of deal.. and peace , is the current regime in Kyiv.
Its not a good situation, and its not right, but the longer it goes on , the harder it becomes to fix issue.

Only as much as a bar to some kind of peace is the current regime in Moscow. 

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5 minutes ago, oowee said:

Only as much as a bar to some kind of peace is the current regime in Moscow. 

 

4 minutes ago, Gordon R said:

That is a genuinely tough question for anyone to answer realistically. As the war crawls along, the pressure is mounting on both of them.

There is another player though, and the pressure is mounting on them too.
The wests involvement is crucial to Ukraines survival , how far will the west go ?
Personally I think thats where we are now , the limit.
And its not enough.

I cant see Russia stopping until they are ready to , and Ukraines leadership , in its present form, will go all in too, but only as long as the west back them, theyre position is untenable without their help.

The cold hard fact , is that no one (except Ukraine) are prepared to risk escalation to a full ground war with any NATO countries, and why should they ? 
What do they owe Ukraine ?
Thats why both Russia and NATO are being very careful of how this plays out, when the risk becomes too high , Im sure NATO will pull the plug on Ukraine.

A full ground war between NATO and Russia is the stuff of nightmares, there isnt a cat in hells chance it wouldnt escalate to nuclear, as I think Russia would rather burn the world than be defeated.

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The question is not what Russia would or would not do its a question of what Putin can do and what level of support he has at home. From here he looks solid but we just don't know. 

The pressure is building day by day on all sides. The west has far more resources, Putin has a thicker skin. 

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26 minutes ago, Gordon R said:

If this didn't involve Russia, it would be easier to predict. Media outside Russia would bring pressure to resolve this quickly. 

Lets hope we see a rise in the NRA and the White Blue White flag Putin opposition. 

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It's very hard for us normal mortals to figure out what is really going on, its complex, Ukraine is huge, misinformation is produced by both sides in copious quantities.   The number of Russian war deaths varies wildly from 15,000 - to 80,000, depending where you look for info.

We do know with concrete certainty that sanctions are being applied and that's affecting the people that can least afford it, the normal Russian citizens.  The Russian authorities have effectively isolated the country from the internet's search engines, social media sites and news resources whilst controlling the content of the broadcast media with the result that the greater majority of the population have no concept of what's really happening to their country or their neighbours in Ukraine.   It's akin to England invading Scotland - same people, same language - went out of fashion here sometime ago.    

The mega rich that used to travel the world in considerable style, have had their international assets frozen, yachts seized/impounded and can't travel anywhere and all their woes and discomfort can be laid at the door of their President.  One can imagine some high maintenance Russian wives/mistresses whining that they can't escape the brutal Russian winter for warm sunshine in the coming months.

In the past, pre-internet era the situation above would have fueled an uprising, a revolution to topple the misguided leadership.  Somehow I can't see this happening anytime soon. 

Edited by Cosmicblue
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3 hours ago, Rewulf said:

If you remember right back to the beginning, my theory was that Russia didnt actually intend to invade, rather to sabre rattle and intimidate.
When this didnt work, they hastily put together an ill thought out invasion plan, the results of which were plain to see.

So there was no need to remove Zelensky at that point ?

They werent that 'special' then were they ? 😆
 

Your point is ?
Are we going to keep stating the obvious, going over old ground ?
Besides your ground breaking plan of 'Russia should just withdraw !' do you have anything constructive to add, to how this can be resolved.?
Preferably without the total destruction of Ukraine, European economic collapse , or a nuclear exchange that has us all glowing in the dark ?

 

What on earth would be the point ?
Every man and his dog knows Putins a very nasty piece of work, why do you need confirmation?
I could counter with saying youve never criticised Zelensky, but its a pointless argument, I dont actually care if you think hes the 2nd coming , or as big a gangster as Vlad.

Which one do you think is more (re)movable ?


You miss the point.

I support Ukraine pretty much unquestioningly because there is no ‘balance’ to a Russian invasion or questioning of the Ukrainians as to how they have had to deal with being invaded.

100% unnecessary, 100% Russian land grabbing aggression and 100% Russian choice. Indeed, the Ukrainians have been left to deal with a totalitarian aggressor and can’t be criticised in how they have to do that.

Russian forces and resources out number Ukrainian many fold but it’s not gone Putin’s way on any analysis. Indeed it will go down in history as the Russian version of Vietnam.

What cheers me up is how wrong the pro Putin camp armchair experts have been and long may it continue. Ah but don’t forget he’s a master tactician 😆 and it’s landed in the Yank’s laps- they probably can’t believe their luck.

.

Edited by Mungler
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25 minutes ago, Mungler said:


You miss the point

 

25 minutes ago, Mungler said:

I support Ukraine pretty much unquestioningly because there is no ‘balance’ to a Russian invasion or questioning of the Ukrainians as to how they have had to deal with being invaded.

 

29 minutes ago, Mungler said:

100% unnecessary, 100% Russian land grabbing aggression and 100% Russian choice. Indeed, the Ukrainians have been left to deal with a totalitarian aggressor and can’t be criticised in how they have to do that.

You're stating the obvious again. 

The very point is,  how do the Ukrainians deal with it,  especially if they lose support of NATO? 

30 minutes ago, Mungler said:

Russian forces and resources out number Ukrainian many fold but it’s not gone Putin’s way on any analysis. Indeed it will go down in history as the Russian version of Vietnam

Again,  its obvious its not gone well. But when was the last time Russia,  or for that matter the US/NATO fought against a technologically advanced foe? 

The fact that most High ranking Ukrainian generals are fully familiar with Russian tactics and equipment certainly didn't help either. 

34 minutes ago, Mungler said:

What cheers me up is how wrong the pro Putin camp armchair experts have been and long may it continue. Ah but don’t forget he’s a master tactician 😆 and it’s landed in the Yank’s laps- they probably can’t believe their luck

What cheers me up is that we haven't been stupid enough to put boots in there. 

And yes,  the yanks are loving life,  couldn't have worked out better for them eh? 

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18 hours ago, ditchman said:

proberly end up like a north and south Korea

Exactly my thoughts, people on here keep saying that Russia can't hold the ground,  but I don't see how Ukraine can take it back.

17 hours ago, Mungler said:

Ukraine neither wanted to be invaded nor become 100% Russian

That really is Mungler gold, I'm not sure any invading force rings up first to check it's OK.

16 hours ago, Rewulf said:

Thats why both Russia and NATO are being very careful of how this plays out, when the risk becomes too high , Im sure NATO will pull the plug on Ukraine.

A full ground war between NATO and Russia is the stuff of nightmares, there isnt a cat in hells chance it wouldnt escalate to nuclear, as I think Russia would rather burn the world than be defeated.

Very probably,  but it might be a case of who blinks first? With neither wanting to lose face.

16 hours ago, oowee said:

The question is not what Russia would or would not do its a question of what Putin can do and what level of support he has at home. From here he looks solid but we just don't know. 

The pressure is building day by day on all sides. The west has far more resources, Putin has a thicker skin. 

I'd agree with that,  we only really know one side of the bits we're told.

15 hours ago, Cosmicblue said:

It's very hard for us normal mortals to figure out what is really going on, its complex, Ukraine is huge, misinformation is produced by both sides in copious quantities.   The number of Russian war deaths varies wildly from 15,000 - to 80,000, depending where you look for info.

We do know with concrete certainty that sanctions are being applied and that's affecting the people that can least afford it, the normal Russian citizens.  The Russian authorities have effectively isolated the country from the internet's search engines, social media sites and news resources whilst controlling the content of the broadcast media with the result that the greater majority of the population have no concept of what's really happening to their country or their neighbours in Ukraine.   It's akin to England invading Scotland - same people, same language - went out of fashion here sometime ago.    

The mega rich that used to travel the world in considerable style, have had their international assets frozen, yachts seized/impounded and can't travel anywhere and all their woes and discomfort can be laid at the door of their President.  One can imagine some high maintenance Russian wives/mistresses whining that they can't escape the brutal Russian winter for warm sunshine in the coming months.

In the past, pre-internet era the situation above would have fueled an uprising, a revolution to topple the misguided leadership.  Somehow I can't see this happening anytime soon. 

Agree again. 

1 hour ago, Cosmicblue said:

I can't help noticing that the US military appear to be moving assets like B52s and F22 Raptors into Eastern Europe so whilst regular boots are not on the ground there would appear to be an escalating risk of an accidental infringement of Russian airspace.

We were on holiday last week other East Coast,  the first cloudy night and the US airforce were out playing doing a lot of low level NOISY stuff.

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16 hours ago, Cosmicblue said:

  The Russian authorities have effectively isolated the country from the internet's search engines, social media sites and news resources whilst controlling the content of the broadcast media with the result that the greater majority of the population have no concept of what's really happening to their country or their neighbours in Ukraine.

This takes a bit of swallowing.
Whilst our media would have us believe that Russia is some kind of NK style concentration camp for its citizens , no contact with the outside world , and only state controlled news...
Believe it or not, this is fantasy.
There are hundreds of thousands of Russian holiday makers out and about in Europe, Turkey ect , pretty much anywhere we can go, they can, shockingly, they can access the internet the same as we can, sometimes they have to use VPNs , but the fact remains , they arent 'blind' to whats really going on, yes they have state controlled news  that trumpets the governments position, but so do we !
But most shocking of all, you can actually talk to Russians in the flesh and on social media, YES they have social media, you might find they dont need state mind control to disagree with whats happening in Ukraine.

Its just theres little they can do about it, just as we have no say in what our government does.
The ridiculous notion that we are free, and they are not, needs putting to bed.

If anything its our own governments that conspire to make this a reality, and keep them there, by rescinding Russian travel visas.
You would think the more that can travel out, the more we can liberate from the yoke of soviet oppression !

https://radiogdansk.pl/english-service/2022/08/23/polish-deputy-fm-calls-for-more-restrictions-on-tourist-visas-for-russians-four-more-ships-carrying-food-depart-ukraine-polish-director-on-longlist-for-european-film-awards-special-broadcasts-th/

1 hour ago, Mice! said:

Exactly my thoughts, people on here keep saying that Russia can't hold the ground,  but I don't see how Ukraine can take it back.

This map is serviced by the Ukrainians, and is updated regularly, it tells a sorry story of how much the Ukrainians are struggling against Russian firepower.

https://liveuamap.com/

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