Chaos at Dover again

[Mungler]

1 hour ago, Raja Clavata said:

That's a really ill formed example.

Are you suggesting the IMF are a part of the remainer spin establishment?

Of course our employment figures are good, Brexit resulted in a ton of our workforce returning to their native EU countries. Compounded by global skills shortage and mass resignation. I'm pretty sure any UK resident who is able and willing to work can find a job.

Relative earnings are another measure of prosperity, have you checked how we fayre compared to other nations in that regard?

Then there's the topic of productivity but I don't expect you'll enter into a "debate" about how productive the French are, for example, compared to us...

So, it's because of migrants, OK.

You actually thought the illegal immigrant issue was going to improve as a result of Brexit, like really!?

Net zero, what are these burdens you refer to and how do they impact GDP?

That's some bubble you're living in fella...

 

1. The IMF prediction is correct but you are missing the point about looking at the figures since the pandemic - our recession hit faster and deeper but our recovery was greater and quicker. In short we’ve had more of a bounce back recovery already and the EU will have a bigger one next year because they are catching up.

2. We had 200,000 workers leave following Brexit and then the pandemic hit. In any event ask the man on the street if he would like to be living Spanish or UK levels of unemployment? Indeed I don’t know what point you are attempting to make.

3. What do you mean by relative earnings? Relative to what? The average / mean UK salary is double that of the EU. Great, but so what?

4. worker productivity is measured against GDP (see my commentary about measuring GDP and measuring against GDP). According to this wonderful and accepted means of measurement, the Irish are the most productive workers and yet work some of the smallest hours. Brilliant. Let’s all live in Ireland eh?

5. you then raise and wander into illegal immigration - no idea what you’re doing or where you’re going now 😆

Edited July 27, 2022 by Mungler

[12gauge82]

14 hours ago, Raja Clavata said:

 

When!?

You mentioned one above. People on minimum wage, are already being paid more due to the lack of cheap labour that used to flood this country from the EU. Many of those willing and able to work can now get a job. Like I said earlier, brexit in many ways was a victory for the little man. 

[Raja Clavata]

On 27/07/2022 at 18:44, Mungler said:

1. The IMF prediction is correct but you are missing the point about looking at the figures since the pandemic - our recession hit faster and deeper but our recovery was greater and quicker. In short we’ve had more of a bounce back recovery already and the EU will have a bigger one next year because they are catching up.

Apologies for the late retort, was on a biz trip to Paris 😛 

I didn't miss that point. You appear to be, somewhat conveniently, overlooking the fact that based on those figures - from 2017 to 2023 (projected) - overall EU growth is 11.3% vs 8% for UK!? Also that the %age dip in 2020 for UK was nearly twice that of the EU - what might the reason(s) for that be?

On 27/07/2022 at 18:44, Mungler said:

2. We had 200,000 workers leave following Brexit and then the pandemic hit. In any event ask the man on the street if he would like to be living Spanish or UK levels of unemployment? Indeed I don’t know what point you are attempting to make.

The point is that the situation on employment, I agree it's good by the way, is skewed by the workforce exodus as a result of Brexit, which isn't so good for those who are trying to resource businesses and drive growth.

On 27/07/2022 at 18:44, Mungler said:

3. What do you mean by relative earnings? Relative to what? The average / mean UK salary is double that of the EU. Great, but so what?

UK average earnings growth compared to other countries, year on year.

On 27/07/2022 at 18:44, Mungler said:

4. worker productivity is measured against GDP (see my commentary about measuring GDP and measuring against GDP). According to this wonderful and accepted means of measurement, the Irish are the most productive workers and yet work some of the smallest hours. Brilliant. Let’s all live in Ireland eh?

Eh!? There appears to be a correlation between lower hours worked and greater productivity. The key point though is that the UK is significantly behind France and Germany. Nothing to do with moving to Ireland...

On 27/07/2022 at 18:44, Mungler said:

5. you then raise and wander into illegal immigration - no idea what you’re doing or where you’re going now 😆

That was a reply to another post from another contributor, do try to keep up...

[Mungler]

1 hour ago, Raja Clavata said:

Apologies for the late retort, was on a biz trip to Paris 😛 

I didn't miss that point. You appear to be, somewhat conveniently, overlooking the fact that based on those figures - from 2017 to 2023 (projected) - overall EU growth is 11.3% vs 8% for UK!? Also that the %age dip in 2020 for UK was nearly twice that of the EU - what might the reason(s) for that be?

The point is that the situation on employment, I agree it's good by the way, is skewed by the workforce exodus as a result of Brexit, which isn't so good for those who are trying to resource businesses and drive growth.

UK average earnings growth compared to other countries, year on year.

Eh!? There appears to be a correlation between lower hours worked and greater productivity. The key point though is that the UK is significantly behind France and Germany. Nothing to do with moving to Ireland...

That was a reply to another post from another contributor, do try to keep up...

 

1. The EU is not a country, it is a collection of countries wherein some are fairing better than others. For example Poland is going great guns, less so Italy and Greece etc. GDP is an interesting measure / metric but not the be all and end all. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_countries_by_GDP_growth

2. All of the economic predictions for the EU went out the window yesterday with the lovely Mr. Putin cutting the gas supply and the longer term position into Winter and next year not looking too clever for Germany. Germany is of course the EU and the underwriter of "the Euro" and it's all going to get very interesting and very quickly.

3. At this juncture, not being shackled to a European Union or a centralised European currency effectively controlled by the French and Germans is going to be a bit of luck for us.

4. You keep talking about "growth" but again, "compared to what?" - last year? There is massive growth in an emerging economy like Poland (for example) and Polish economic growth and GDP year on year will show growth beyond our economy's year on year growth (and probably Germany's too) but it's still Poland.

5. The OECD data for productivity on hours worked is here: https://data.oecd.org/lprdty/gdp-per-hour-worked.htm I am not sure what chart you are looking at?

6. I am looking forward to seeing how many EU rules and regs the Germans and French now break and bend to solve national issues at home. I also think that the Germans owe Mr. Trump a written apology for the heads up about energy dependency on Russia? Indeed, recent events show neither the Germans nor Putin to be as clever as everyone once thought.

 

 

[Penelope]

6. I am looking forward to seeing how many EU rules and regs the Germans and French now break and bend to solve national issues at home. I also think that the Germans owe Mr. Trump a written apology for the heads up about energy dependency on Russia? Indeed, recent events show neither the Germans nor Putin to be as clever as everyone once thought.

Like that is ever going to happen, but it was good fun to watch the 'Donald' lay it out to them.

Can't imagine slow Joe doing anything like that.

[Raja Clavata]

14 minutes ago, Mungler said:

 

1. The EU is not a country, it is a collection of countries wherein some are fairing better than others. For example Poland is going great guns, less so Italy and Greece etc. GDP is an interesting measure / metric but not the be all and end all. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_countries_by_GDP_growth

2. All of the economic predictions for the EU went out the window yesterday with the lovely Mr. Putin cutting the gas supply and the longer term position into Winter and next year not looking too clever for Germany. Germany is of course the EU and the underwriter of "the Euro" and it's all going to get very interesting and very quickly.

3. At this juncture, not being shackled to a European Union or a centralised European currency effectively controlled by the French and Germans is going to be a bit of luck for us.

4. You keep talking about "growth" but again, "compared to what?" - last year? There is massive growth in an emerging economy like Poland (for example) and Polish economic growth and GDP year on year will show growth beyond our economy's year on year growth (and probably Germany's too) but it's still Poland.

5. The OECD data for productivity on hours worked is here: https://data.oecd.org/lprdty/gdp-per-hour-worked.htm I am not sure what chart you are looking at?

6. I am looking forward to seeing how many EU rules and regs the Germans and French now break and bend to solve national issues at home. I also think that the Germans owe Mr. Trump a written apology for the heads up about energy dependency on Russia? Indeed, recent events show neither the Germans nor Putin to be as clever as everyone once thought.

 

 

1. Err, you yourself compared UK to EU.

2. You just contradicted yourself.

3. We were never shackled to a centralised Euro currency.

4. We left the EU to take back control and chart our own destiny - it was purported to be some kind of path to utopia, it clearly isn't - at least yet, but I do hope that changes. I agree you can't compare UK to Poland but I started the point on year on year growth based on the UK and comparison to other G7 nations.

5. Clearly a different one to you 😉 https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/productivitymeasures/bulletins/internationalcomparisonsofproductivityfinalestimates/2020

6. I don't know whether to laugh or cry at the frankly odious admiration of Trump but I guess it should come as no surprise as he's cut from the same cloth as Johnson, whom you seem to adore.

[Raja Clavata]

On 28/07/2022 at 07:56, 12gauge82 said:

You mentioned one above. People on minimum wage, are already being paid more due to the lack of cheap labour that used to flood this country from the EU. Many of those willing and able to work can now get a job. Like I said earlier, brexit in many ways was a victory for the little man. 

OK but as I have suggested earlier, things need to be kept in balance. Workforce shortages leads to higher salaries which leads to higher prices which leads to higher inflation. I suspect inflation has outpaced salary increases for the majority of people, little, medium or large. Personally my salary went up 8% since last year but I'm definitely no better off, particularly given the tax increases and the implication the salary increase had on income tax thresholds.

[Mungler]

26 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

1. Err, you yourself compared UK to EU.

2. You just contradicted yourself.

3. We were never shackled to a centralised Euro currency.

4. We left the EU to take back control and chart our own destiny - it was purported to be some kind of path to utopia, it clearly isn't - at least yet, but I do hope that changes. I agree you can't compare UK to Poland but I started the point on year on year growth based on the UK and comparison to other G7 nations.

5. Clearly a different one to you 😉 https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/productivitymeasures/bulletins/internationalcomparisonsofproductivityfinalestimates/2020

6. I don't know whether to laugh or cry at the frankly odious admiration of Trump but I guess it should come as no surprise as he's cut from the same cloth as Johnson, whom you seem to adore.

 

1 & 2 : No contradiction. The point being the EU is heading for a disaster of its own and Germany (the power house and mainstay of any amorphous EU stat or metric) is going to take the biggest hit. We can come back to this in say March and have a weigh up.

3. One of the criteria for us staying in was the adoption of the Euro. Indeed, if you are going to sell your soul and shackle yourself to a demanding economic union which requires total subservience, then it's not an unreasonable request but one which we have mercifully avoided in the quest for independence. We shall see the value of that independence rise in due course.

4. It's early doors and covid has certainly thrown a spanner in the plans. There will be other spanners landing and coming over the horizon no doubt.

5. Yes yours was ONS and mine OECD.

6. This is where I stop arguing with remainers. It's like arguing about police brutality with long serving police officers - they just won't have it. You can have the video of the disabled pensioner getting CS gas in the face and shot with a taser, but to a man, long served police officers will feel obliged to back the tribe. Trump was 100% right on the issue of Germany's energy independence. You can argue that he's got so much else wrong, but if you can't accept the plain truth that he was 100% right on the subject of German energy independence from Russia, then you lose all credibility. Indeed, let's try the other way - where was Trump wrong on the topic of Germany's energy independence from Russia?

.

 

 

Edited July 29, 2022 by Mungler

[oowee]

3 hours ago, Mungler said:

 

1 & 2 : No contradiction. The point being the EU is heading for a disaster of its own and Germany (the power house and mainstay of any amorphous EU stat or metric) is going to take the biggest hit. We can come back to this in say March and have a weigh up.

3. One of the criteria for us staying in was the adoption of the Euro. Indeed, if you are going to sell your soul and shackle yourself to a demanding economic union which requires total subservience, then it's not an unreasonable request but one which we have mercifully avoided in the quest for independence. We shall see the value of that independence rise in due course.

4. It's early doors and covid has certainly thrown a spanner in the plans. There will be other spanners landing and coming over the horizon no doubt.

5. Yes yours was ONS and mine OECD.

6. This is where I stop arguing with remainers. It's like arguing about police brutality with long serving police officers - they just won't have it. You can have the video of the disabled pensioner getting CS gas in the face and shot with a taser, but to a man, long served police officers will feel obliged to back the tribe. Trump was 100% right on the issue of Germany's energy independence. You can argue that he's got so much else wrong, but if you can't accept the plain truth that he was 100% right on the subject of German energy independence from Russia, then you lose all credibility. Indeed, let's try the other way - where was Trump wrong on the topic of Germany's energy independence from Russia?

.

 

 

The UK opted out of and could remain out of the |Euro.

Whilst there is no doubt the German / wider EU reliance on Russian energy was a huge mistake we are far from immune.  A short sighted Thatcher Government privatised energy so all that we make will be sold to the highest bidder. 

The due course (however its going to mysteriously happen) needs to hurry up to counter the here and now decline we can see and pay for in the UK. 

[Mungler]

31 minutes ago, oowee said:

The UK opted out of and could remain out of the |Euro.

Whilst there is no doubt the German / wider EU reliance on Russian energy was a huge mistake we are far from immune.  A short sighted Thatcher Government privatised energy so all that we make will be sold to the highest bidder. 

The due course (however its going to mysteriously happen) needs to hurry up to counter the here and now decline we can see and pay for in the UK. 

You know what, with Brexit I agree with and understand the direction of travel but despair at the lack of thought and proper implementation. Yes to a common market, no to everything else.

Thatcher’s sell off of the nationalised industries funded our escape from the 70’s and stopped us being the sick man of Europe. The sell off would have been of no consequence now had we built any new nuclear power stations or properly pursued energy self sufficiency. Try and get a fracking licence or planning permission to whack up a nuclear power station or add a runway to an airport - that’s where the problem lies.

 

 

Edited July 29, 2022 by Mungler

[oowee]

10 minutes ago, Mungler said:

You know what, with Brexit I agree with and understand the direction of travel but despair at the lack of thought and proper implementation. Yes to a common market, no to everything else.

Thatcher’s sell off of the nationalised industries funded our escape from the 70’s and stopped us being the sick man of Europe. The sell off would have been of no consequence now had we built any new nuclear power stations or properly pursued energy self sufficiency. Try and get a fracking licence or planning permission to whack up a nuclear power station or add a runway to an airport - that’s where the problem lies.

 

 

Absolutely right. I am all for engagement and consultation but there comes a time when you have to say we are building nuclear, or building this airport because you local nimby dislike of progress is holding back uk plc. 

 

[Mungler]

22 minutes ago, oowee said:

Absolutely right. I am all for engagement and consultation but there comes a time when you have to say we are building nuclear, or building this airport because you local nimby dislike of progress is holding back uk plc. 

 

And that’s also where the likes a China have the advantage - ‘we’re building an airport where your village and ancestral home has been for 500 years, be gone by this time next week or take it up with the bulldozers’. 

[12gauge82]

On 29/07/2022 at 15:43, Raja Clavata said:

OK but as I have suggested earlier, things need to be kept in balance. Workforce shortages leads to higher salaries which leads to higher prices which leads to higher inflation. I suspect inflation has outpaced salary increases for the majority of people, little, medium or large. Personally my salary went up 8% since last year but I'm definitely no better off, particularly given the tax increases and the implication the salary increase had on income tax thresholds.

Quite right, seldom anything in life, but particularly something as complex as brexit is black and white. Although I would suggest Covid is the current driver of inflation at the moment. 

[Dave-G]

Is it feasible to assume wheat, sunflower oil and fertiliser supply being released by Russia will bring inflation down a tad and that knock on effects will reduce food costs to the point that the current rate of inflation will be only temporary- and that's why employers aren't about to let the current rate dictate long term wages levels?

[Vince Green]

On 29/07/2022 at 15:37, Raja Clavata said:

 

4. We left the EU to take back control and chart our own destiny - it was purported to be some kind of path to utopia, it clearly isn't - at least yet, but I do hope that changes.

The EURO is on a very dangerous path. it could well be terminal. Only time will tell but every day we must all get on our knees and give thanks that we never joined

Tony Blair wanted to join, Gordon Brown blocked it, Now i never thought I would give a big thumbs up to Gordon Brown but thank you thank you thank you

even though you only did it to stuff Tony Baloney it was right, ten years on

Edited July 31, 2022 by Vince Green

[Mungler]

As that well known saying goes “Remainers who want to live in the German Euro economic greenhouse shouldn’t throw stones” 😆

 

[Penelope]

4 hours ago, Mungler said:

As that well known saying goes “Remainers who want to live in the German Euro economic greenhouse shouldn’t throw stones” 😆

 

Rationing has already started in German, I believe. No hot water in public buildings.

[Mice!]

I wonder if the queues were as bad coming back into England??

[TIGHTCHOKE]

21 minutes ago, Mice! said:

I wonder if the queues were as bad coming back into England??

Of course not, they all came by large rubber boats!   

[Jaymo]

4 hours ago, Mice! said:

I wonder if the queues were as bad coming back into England??

From my sister in law who came back last Saturday via the ‘channel tunnel’, yes they were. 
Now explain that one when it’s the UK Border Force in action there? 

[Mice!]

1 hour ago, Jaymo said:

From my sister in law who came back last Saturday via the ‘channel tunnel’, yes they were. 
Now explain that one when it’s the UK Border Force in action there? 

I imagine there are always queues,  but I wondered if it was worse than normal,  or normal??

[Jaymo]

15 hours ago, Mice! said:

I imagine there are always queues,  but I wondered if it was worse than normal,  or normal??

They do the trip annually l- had terrible queuing on leaving at Ashford the previous week and said their return was almost as bad and not their usual experience. 

[JohnfromUK]

17 hours ago, Jaymo said:

From my sister in law who came back last Saturday via the ‘channel tunnel’, yes they were. 
Now explain that one when it’s the UK Border Force in action there? 

A couple of neighbours came back - 2 persons plus car - last Saturday (30/7) via the tunnel - no delays at all.  very good journey.  No idea whose border force was operating, but they were straight on a train and straight off again in the UK.  Very pleased as they had been seeing all the news about delays ........ but none encountered.

[12gauge82]

55 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

A couple of neighbours came back - 2 persons plus car - last Saturday (30/7) via the tunnel - no delays at all.  very good journey.  No idea whose border force was operating, but they were straight on a train and straight off again in the UK.  Very pleased as they had been seeing all the news about delays ........ but none encountered.

Same experience for some of my family last Friday. No problem re-entering the UK at all. 

[Mungler]

Well, we don't hear the cries of "this is all because of Brexit, this is what you voted for" when it all runs smoothly 🙂