March in London today

[Newbie to this]

People shouldn't start wars, if they don't want to be attacked back.

Funny how Russia starts a war, and it's all Russia's fault.

But Palestine (and I use this deliberately, as Hamas are duly elected) starts a war, and it's all Israel's fault.

[oowee]

1 hour ago, TIGHTCHOKE said:

No it isn't hard at all.

Perhaps you would care to enlighten the sceptics amongst us. 

33 minutes ago, Newbie to this said:

People shouldn't start wars, if they don't want to be attacked back.

Funny how Russia starts a war, and it's all Russia's fault.

But Palestine (and I use this deliberately, as Hamas are duly elected) starts a war, and it's all Israel's fault.

It's probaly something to do with the oppressed and the oppressor. David and goliath. There is much fault on both sides.

When did the war start? Oct 6th 2023 or 15th May 1948? 

[Newbie to this]

9 minutes ago, oowee said:

When did the war start? Oct 6th 2023 or 15th May 1948? 

The ongoing one? Oct 2023.

The 1948 one is long over

[Scully]

The reasons for the 2023 attacks have their origins back in 1948, when a displaced and despised race had nowhere to go, but in essence it started much earlier than that, by those races involved.
Any peace between those two dates has only been an uneasy ceasefire of simmering hatred and resentment which occasionally burst out into violence. 
It has been like this throughout my life it would seem, and it will always be so because there is no will to do anything to resolve it. 
Hamas is supported and funded by outside influences, as is Israel, all of which have their own agendas. It is these supporters who could influence a peace, but peace on its own is temporary and meaningless without the will from ALL concerned to build on it for the good of future generations. The will to do this isn’t there. 
Hamas are the reason every Israeli school bus carries armed guards; you would think any rational government would work to resolve that issue for a start, but how do you negotiate with irrational people? 
If images of dead and mutilated children on both sides aren’t enough to make them stop and think ‘ we can’t go on like this, we really can’t,’ then I don’t know what will. 🤷‍♂️
 

[12gauge82]

I feel for any rational Palestinians, although how many of them there are in Gaza is debatable, as already pointed out, they have voted for a terrorist organisation to lead them. As for how Israel stops the threat to their people, those saying force can't solve it, I disagree, anywhere in history where force and violence of action has failed, has only failed because not enough force was used. If Israel takes the gloves off, they could wipe gaza off the map, although obviously I hope they don't do so.

Edited October 24, 2023 by 12gauge82

[Wymondley]

3 hours ago, oowee said:

It would have been better if Hamas had not attacked Israel. It would have been better if Palestinian land had not been stolen and the residents of Gaza imprisoned. There are many wrongs on both sides. The choice is simple fight until resources or opinion stops the process or negotiate a new future.

Two states so entrenched in their own ideology that they'll keep going until there's nothing left but rocks to throw at each other.

There will never be peace. 

[Mungler]

I’d let the Israelis crack on - it’s been their invasion and their loss and who are we to tell them how to defend their country or seek their retribution.

As for this 1948 nonsense, that’s a dead generation ago. Who’s alive to remember that? Anyone here still want to wipe the Germans or the Argentinians off the face of the planet?

Stone Age nonsense.

What was the stat? 50% of the population of Gaza is under 18 years of age. I’m amazed.

It can’t be all that bad if people are happy to pop out a load of children into an area  where your close neighbours are caching weapons for terrorists or constantly launching rockets indiscriminately into the civilian population of a neighbouring country but from the local kids playground. 

[oowee]

10 hours ago, Mungler said:

 

It can’t be all that bad if people are happy to pop out a load of children into an area  where your close neighbours are caching weapons for terrorists or constantly launching rockets indiscriminately into the civilian population of a neighbouring country but from the local kids playground. 

45% unemployment apparently. Recruitment will be relentless. 

[Rem260]

16 hours ago, Rim Fire said:

It's hard to forgive and forget but our late queen had to with the IRA after they bombed Lord Mountbatten in the name of peace  

I do believe she forgave them in the name of peace after they gave up their weapons and intentions to bomb her subjects.

[Flashman]

Since the Hamas murders in Israel, France intends to ignore ECHR and deport failed asylum seekers immediately, HMG revoked visas because of anti-Semitic rioting and USA sent two carrier battle groups to the Med to protect Israel.  

I can only marvel at the British public's deep knowledge and concern for the cause of all this upheaval.

However, I'm cynical and don't believe that it's concern for Gaza - It's a Jewish issue and the hatred of them thereof.   

Edited October 25, 2023 by Flashman

[Yellow Bear]

I see Starmer, who's silence on Hamas is deafening, Is coming under pressure from the non existent anti semites  in the labour party and BBC       https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67213191    

Totally untrustworthy.  the lot of them.

[12gauge82]

1 hour ago, Flashman said:

 

I can only marvel at the British public's deep knowledge and concern for the cause of all this upheaval.

However, I'm cynical and don't believe that it's concern for Gaza - It's a Jewish issue and the hatred of them thereof.   

So what do you believe is driving uk interest in Gaza if not genuine concern?

[Flashman]

On 22/10/2023 at 16:20, Flashman said:

I watch Pointless on BBC1.  They ask 100 members of the public assorted general knowledge questions and give them 100 seconds to provide as many answers as possible.  I am always disappointed, but no longer surprised, by how little the great unwashed know about UK history - low teens recognition of Magna Carta, 1990s/2000s cabinet ministers, 20 century UK social events, etc.   

in a similar vein, there was little UK interest about the ethic cleansing of Kurds in Turkey, Poland's flat refusal to accept asylum seekers, war in Libya or the ongoing deaths in the Mediterranean in small boats.

Then we come to Israel.  I find it remarkable that so many people claim to know every twist & turn of the Oslo Accords, settlers, the Geneva Convention, laws of war, Muslim sectarianism, etc.  Above, I bemoaned the lack of UK history education, yet so many people know everything (that Israel does wrong) about Gaza. 

Similarly, there's no general public engagement or discussion regarding Iran's assorted terrorism, Poland, Austria and others breaking EU laws on open borders or thousands dying in the Med trying to get to Italy.  However, hundreds of thousands across Western Europe rage over the IDF.  No rage about the murders, rape & torture that preceded it on 7 October, I note with no real surprise.

So, I wonder why the Palestinians garner so much attention?  I read everywhere that this isn't about the Jews and that people may criticise Israel without being anti-Semitic.  But does anybody believe that?  Look at the swivel-eyed loons who say that - hard left Labour,  I think that's all absolute rubbish.  Having considered the general public's lack of history education and the lack of empathy for all other humanitarian charity cash calls, I think this is really just Jew basing.  The surrounding Arab states couldn't give a tinker's curse about Gaza or the West Bank.  Iran is happy to arm them because it keeps the Israelis from bombing Iran's nuclear sites (and God help us all if Iran gets nuclear missiles).  Egypt closed the Gaza border years ago and won't allow their fellow Muslims out.  Jordan, which borders the West Bank, won't grant their fellow Muslims any asylum rights either.

So, when I read or hear that assorted Labour Party members, or the BBC, or trades unions officials, or all Republic of Ireland government minsters, or the SNP don't have a problem with Jews, but they care about the poor Palestinians, I call it out as lies because it flies in the face of my wider experience of current affairs generally.  

For what it's worth, I don't think Gaza's worth the cost of the ammunition.  The real war will be with Iran, supported indirectly by Russia and China.  All the protestors are simply undermining the West's ability to defend itself against those authoritarian regimes. 

But really, they don't care because for them it's Jew bashing. 

 

50 minutes ago, 12gauge82 said:

So what do you believe is driving uk interest in Gaza if not genuine concern?

I think it's clear in both my previous posts.

[12gauge82]

5 minutes ago, Flashman said:

 

I think it's clear in both my previous posts.

Fair enough, although I don't think that really holds up.

Despite the media, I think the vast majority of the UK population are behind Israel and it's right to self defence, just as they have been with Ukraine. Ive also not heard many people claim to know the ins and outs of the very long and complex fraught relationship between Israel and it's neighbours.

[Flashman]

1 hour ago, 12gauge82 said:

Fair enough, although I don't think that really holds up.

Despite the media, I think the vast majority of the UK population are behind Israel and it's right to self defence, just as they have been with Ukraine. Ive also not heard many people claim to know the ins and outs of the very long and complex fraught relationship between Israel and it's neighbours.

You're right, I agree that most right-thinking people side with Israel.  My circle of friends and colleagues are all clear - Israel is free to prosecute its war on its own terms.

However, one cannot say, "despite the media...".  The BBC is the national broadcaster and it's clearly pro-Hamas biased.  Ditto Channel Four news, Guardian, the rank & file Labour Party, etc.  Even the newly-minted non-racist Yorkshire Cricket Club is rocked by anti-Semitism, per the Daily Telegraph:

"Amjad Bashir, who was appointed by Yorkshire Cricket Foundation (YCF) in March, posted a series of statements on X following the October 7 terrorist attacks by Hamas. His posts are hugely embarrassing for a club still reeling from the racism scandal that threatened their very existence, which included anti-Semitic comments made by the man who blew the whistle on it, Azeem Rafiq."

So clearly, there's a proportion of UK residents who seem keen to celebrate murder, rape, beheading babies and kidnap.  I don't even think it's aligned just to religious beliefs.  There's multiple examples of union leadership also being pro-Hamas, whether the Labour Party or its underlying union backers.  I struggle to understand why this is the case, but I don't claim to know why or that I'm going to expend much energy trying.

[Rim Fire]

3 hours ago, Yellow Bear said:

I see Starmer, who's silence on Hamas is deafening, Is coming under pressure from the non existent anti semites  in the labour party and BBC       https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67213191    

Totally untrustworthy.  the lot of them.

🤣🤣🤣🤣 And this lot is

[12gauge82]

2 hours ago, Flashman said:

You're right, I agree that most right-thinking people side with Israel.  My circle of friends and colleagues are all clear - Israel is free to prosecute its war on its own terms.

However, one cannot say, "despite the media...".  The BBC is the national broadcaster and it's clearly pro-Hamas biased.  Ditto Channel Four news, Guardian, the rank & file Labour Party, etc.  Even the newly-minted non-racist Yorkshire Cricket Club is rocked by anti-Semitism, per the Daily Telegraph:

"Amjad Bashir, who was appointed by Yorkshire Cricket Foundation (YCF) in March, posted a series of statements on X following the October 7 terrorist attacks by Hamas. His posts are hugely embarrassing for a club still reeling from the racism scandal that threatened their very existence, which included anti-Semitic comments made by the man who blew the whistle on it, Azeem Rafiq."

So clearly, there's a proportion of UK residents who seem keen to celebrate murder, rape, beheading babies and kidnap.  I don't even think it's aligned just to religious beliefs.  There's multiple examples of union leadership also being pro-Hamas, whether the Labour Party or its underlying union backers.  I struggle to understand why this is the case, but I don't claim to know why or that I'm going to expend much energy trying.

I'll go with that 👍

[Mungler]

Supporting the Palestinians is a ‘high status’ opinion. People adopt high status opinions to signal to the world that they are highly socially attuned and of a higher social status.

It means following the likes of Gary Lineker, rainbow flags, trans rights, backing the latest socially acceptable cause and so on. In the old days it was just woke virtue signalling.

There is nothing to it though. There’s no real principles or morality here; look how quickly the virtue signalling hypocritical footballers, pundits and media luvvies pitched up to Qatar to get their snouts in the trough. 

But yes there is a pervading ignorance; the best example was the chap with the ‘Queers support Palestine’ flag. 

Indeed the same lot who were out with their rainbow and trans flags are now happily backing a terrorist regime (and a religiously indoctrinated people) that are positively, absolutely and violently apposed to those causes. It’s a bizarre nonsense really. 

And in the background I’ve never met a hard lefty who will give a Jew an even break. The Labour party is a simmering cauldron of hidden anti semitism; they are all biting their lips hard and waiting for the next general election. Where did we think all those Momentum, Corbyn supporters and other lefty mouthpieces went? What about all the Labour councillors in those lovely multicultural boroughs and wards?

Jew hating is the last socially acceptable  form of racism by those who so loudly decry racism because it is considered to be high status to do so. 

[Mungler]

This is a long read and I robbed it off an engaging writer on Facebook whom I follow. It’s long, but worth reading.

 

An unreliable guide to the Arab / Israeli conflict. 
 

It seems to be assumed people chatting away know something about it, and in most cases they don’t, so someone should explain a little.  Thing is I’m the wrong person.  My interests are Russian politics and economics from 1917 to today and British politics and economics from 1900 to 2021, and most of what I know of the Middle East comes from that.  Still, nobody else seems to be doing it, so here we go.

CHRIST.  In biblical times there was a Jewish state in what we call Palestine (here on WWCP), and various gentile city states.  All of this was under the purview of the Romans, who regarded it as not worth occupying and were happy to leave the locals to it so long as they didn’t fight.  Which they did.  A lot.  I mention this because, yes, there IS an ancient Land Of Israel, they are not recent invaders.

OTTOMAN EMPIRE.  From 15?? WWCP and the general area was part of the Ottoman, ie Turkish, empire.

LAWRENCE OF ARABIA.  In WW1 the Turks chose the German side.  The British promised the Arabs independence if they rose up against the Turks.  They did.

THE BALFOUR DECLARATION. In 1920 the British Prime Minister, Arthur Balfour, stated there should be a Jewish homeland in WWCP.

THE BRITISH MANDATE.  Hard luck on the Arabs, post WW1 the newly formed League Of Nations, forerunner of The United Nations, decided they were not ready for independence and that the area should be run by the British and French. Oh, and yeah, and there would be an eventual Jewish homeland.

THE SYKES-PICOT AGREEMENT. The French and British did swapsies and the British ended up with WWCP.

THE ARAB UPRISING.  With Hitler being beastly, a lot of Jews wanted to come to Palestine to join the already large Jewish population.  The Arabs objected.  In fact they objected so much they revolted.  The British, while fighting the rebellion, let in 70k, which given what Hitler did next was far too few, and the Arabs considered far too many.  Hitler sent Eichman to see if the British would let the entire German Jewish population into WWCP.  The British refused, so Hitler went a different route.

AMERICA BUTTS IN.  In WW2 the Jews fought alongside the British, and the Arabs mostly sided with the Germans.  Post war the Arabs demanded the independence they had been promised since 1916, and no more Jews, and the Jews demanded their homeland, and they both went for the British, who had to keep a standing army of 100k there to quell trouble.  America demanded Britain let in another 100k Jews.

**** YOUR MANDATE.  The Americans had the British over a barrel.  Like all of Western Europe it was bankrupt, and needed a huge American loan.  Which, skipping slightly ahead, it spent on setting up the NHS and the Welfare State.  Yea!  Clap for nurses!  The Germans spent theirs rebuilding industry.  Now see which country you’d like to call an ambulance in.  Anyway, with 100k troops tied up keeping the peace, grief from both sides, and blackmailed by the Americans, the UK turned in its mandate, and said it wasn’t going to implement any solution without the agreement of both parties.  Good luck with that. One cause of this was the American determination to make the British dismantle their empire immediately, which is quite funny because the Americans have been fighting in, against, or for the countries so created ever since.  Good move guys.  Still, it’s sorting itself out now because the Chinese are re-colonising it all.

THE CREATION OF ISRAEL.  In 1947 the UN drew up the borders of the Jewish homeland.  Nobody was happy.  The Jews complained it was too small and they’d be slaughtered by their neighbours.  The Arabs complained about its very existence.  Nonetheless, in 1948, Israel came into being.

THE FIRST ARAB / ISRAELI WAR.  Exactly as predicted, the newly formed and existing Arab states attempted to wipe Israel off the map.  However, having survived one holocaust the Jews weren’t in the mood for another and they fought back.  They marched across WWCP and the Arab population decamped across the border to Jordan.  Talking of which, Jordan helped itself to The West Bank and Egypt took Gaza.

AL NAKBA. It is disputed why the Arabs fled.  The Arabs say the Israelis kicked them out.  The Israelis say Arab governments told them to go and they could come back as soon as Israel was wiped out.  I’m sorry, I can’t help here, I don’t know. Nonetheless, the Arab states sold the Palestinians down the river: seeing which way the war was going, they called a truce in 1949, and accepted (but did not formally recognise) the newly enlarged state of Israel.  The Palestinians call this Al-Nakba, The Catastrophe.

THE RIGHT OF RETURN.  The Palestinians in Jordan demand the right to return.  The Israelis pointed to the 20% of their population who are Arabs and stayed and said if you’d stayed you’d have been well off, but you ran off and fought to destroy us, so tough.  If they DID all return, Jews would be a minority, so there is just no way in a billion years the Israelis will agree. Pretty much any individual who left is now dead anyway.  This is 74 years ago.

THE SUEZ CRISIS.  After failing to destroy Israel by invasion, the Egyptians, by now a Russian ally, had another go in 1955/6, this time trying to starve them out by effectively blockading them.  The French, British and Israelis combined to put a stop to it and seize The Suez Canal (the British and French had been waiting for an excuse to do that). The USSR warned that it would protect its ally, Egypt, with “Destructive Weapons”, ie nukes (it is extremely unlikely that it would have, see Cuban Missile Crisis). The Americans threatened to bankrupt the British by selling all the UK bonds they held, forcing the British home, the end of the British role in the world, the collapse of the British government, and encouraging the Russians to invade Hungary.  Post WW2 the Russians had agreed to hold elections in the countries of Eastern Europe.  They did what they are now doing in Ukraine, held sham elections, claimed everyone had voted to become Russian slaves, and the rest of us could **** off.  There was some hope the resulting Russian puppets would in the end stand up to the Russians – this was, after all, just a few years later.  Hungary did indeed stand up, and the Russians dithered.  The Suez crisis showed the USSR that it could easily intimidate the US with nuclear weapons into cutting the legs off its own allies, and Russia duly sent the tanks into Hungary.  It would be another three and a half decades before Eastern Europe finally managed to kick out the Russians, who are now blatantly working on getting it back.  Another great move by Uncle Sam.  Despite the US’s intervention, Israel did fine on its own and took Gaza, I think.  I get slightly confused about who got what in 56 and 67.  It doesn’t actually matter.  What’s 11 years between friends?  Anyway, however you cut it, The Israelis won.  Two Nil.

A NUCLEAR POWER.  The French and Israelis secretly co-operated on their nuclear programs right from 1948.  Israel has been a nuclear power since 1966.  Israel has never admitted or denied this, but it is clear it has a substantial nuclear stockpile, pus the means to deliver it, and could reduce any country in The Middle East to a sheet of glass if sufficiently threatened.  The Americans widely get the blame for this, but in fact at one point they were close to invading Israel to stop it.  This has inevitably set off a nuclear arms race in the ME, with Iran, Iraq under Saddam, Syria and probably now Egypt all working on nukes themselves.  The Iraqi nuclear program was on hold from 1995 (although it was impossible to know that) and ended permanently with the US and British invasion in 2003 (which should have happened in 1991).  The Israelis delayed the Syrian nuclear program by bombing its reactor, and the Syrian civil war, which has been going on for eleven years now, has put it on hold. Iran’s nuclear program continues apace, and thus far Israel’s disruption attempts have been non military. This may change. Egypt is on good terms with the Russians again now, and, well, funny stuff is going on.  

THE SIX DAY WAR.  The Egyptians had another go, this time with Jordan and Syria.  I’m sure you can guess what happened.  The Israelis took the Sinai Peninsular from Egypt and The West Bank from Jordan.  Not fancying trouble from those three areas again, they started building settlements in Gaza, Sinai and The West Bank. After The Right Of Return, this is the next big issue. Meantime, three nil. Oh, I forgot, they took The Golan Heights from Syria.

SETTLEMENTS.  As we will see, settlements have gone in Gaza, Sinia, and, um, somewhere else.  There are few settlements in The Golan Heights, and if Syria wasn’t a war-torn nest of vipers those would probably have gone too. The issue is West Bank Settlements.  These were established as military outposts, but morphed into civilian villages, then towns and eventually cities, and documents show this was always the plan after 67. The UN, which let’s remember includes ****holes like Zimbabwe and Venezuela and has Russia in the Security Council, says these are illegal.  Israel says they are not.  When people talk of “returning to the 1967 borders” this is code for getting rid of the settlers, who now number half a million.  The obvious answer is, if you like the pre 1967 borders so much, why didn’t you accept them at the time?  And if you did return to the 1967 borders, why would we believe you would not do again what you did in 1949, 1956 and 1967?

YOM KIPPUR WAR.  (Fifty years after the start of this war Hamas invaded Israel).  Egypt, Jordan and Syria attacked Israel on 6th October 1973.  After initial success they were beaten back and Israel was within days of taking Cairo and Damascus.  By now Egypt and Syria were near Russian client states and Israel an American one.  This nearly set off WW3, with Israel, Russia and the US all being nuclear powers. In the end everyone went home.  But, point made, four nil.  That was the last time, to date, the Arab states have entered into direct conflict with Israel.

THE PLO.  The Palestine Liberation Organisation was formed in I think 1964 with the help of the Arab states to destroy Israel (that’s not a judgement, it’s a fact).  It almost immediately started splintering, and its various splinters started committing terrorist outrages throughout the world to draw attention to its cause.  These probably did said cause great harm.  The alphabet soup of its factions was the basis of an amusing section of the film Life Of Brian.  It was headquartered in Jordan, where it became a state within a state and was ejected by Jordan in 1970.  It is my judgment that being ****** off with the PLO is a major reason Jordan recognised Israel in 1994. The PLO found its new home in The Lebanon, a country of which I have fond memories before the PLO helped screw it up for everyone.  It’s a dump now. Since 1974, outrageously in my view, the PLO has been treated as the government of Palestine and has observer status at the UN. Arafat’s faction of the PLO was called Fatah.  When you hear Fatah, it’s the PLO.

1972 MUNICH OLYMPICS.  Palestinian terrorists from Black September infiltrated the Olympic village, killed two Israeli athletes and took nine hostage. All or most were killed in a bungled rescue attempt.  Three terrorists managed to negotiate their way to freedom after an airliner was hijacked.  The immediate result of this was Mossad setting up an assassination squad to deal with terrorists at large. Side note – Black September was a reference to something unpleasant that happened to two Christian villages in Israel.  The world was a different place in 1972.  Can you imagine a modern Palestinian terror group having such a name?  Terrorism was quite secular at the time.

CAMP DAVID ACCORDS.  In 1978 Egypt and Israel came to an agreement in the US.  Israel dismantled its settlements in Sinai and returned it to Egypt.  Egypt formally recognised Israel and has generally been on fairly good terms with it ever since.  It dislikes Hamas almost as much as Israel does.  As Egypt began its rapprochement with Israel, it ceased to be a client of the USSR, although in recent years the two have cosied up again. Egypt condemned Russia’s grossly illegal invasion of Ukraine, but winked and said it didn’t really mean it.

REVOLUTION IN IRAN.  Disclaimer, I have a personal interest in this, having spent my first years in Persia, and grown up surrounded by exiled Persians. Under the Shah Iran was quite a pleasant place by ME standards, albeit it with an unpleasant and repressive security apparatus called The Savak.  It had of course the usual ignorant religious whackjobs, but where in the ME didn’t? The liberal middle class, as liberal middle classes always do, wanted to liberalise further, so the idiots made common cause with the religious nuts.  The result was The Iranian Revolution, creating an official crazed genocidal theocracy which promptly killed the liberal middle classes who couldn’t run away fast enough.  Which frankly serves the fools right.  People never learn.  This happens time and time again throughout history. As Islamic nutjobs, the Iranian regime hates Israel.  Despite which during the Iran / Iraq war Israel became Iran’s man weapons supplier, largely because of Iraq’s alarming nuclear weapons program, which Western morons don’t understand existed.  Since then Iran has been devoted to the destruction of Israel, and the two have been fighting a proxy war ever since.  Hezbollah is an evil creature of The Mad Mullah’s.  Iran has its own nuclear program, and various Iranian leaders have announced their intention to bring the existing world to an end (and usher in a new one under Allah, a concept stupid, blinkered Westerners cannot understand) by nuking Israel, which will in turn nuke them right back. Israel will attack Iran before this can happen.  Iran in the meantime is propping up the failed Russian invasion of Ukraine in return for assistance with this plan.

WAR IN LEBANON, 1982.  Now based in Lebanon, and a serious player after the civil war it largely caused, and supplied with weaponry from the USSR, the PLO began firing rockets into Israel.  Israel invaded Southern Lebanon to flatten the PLO. Arafat held peace talks with Israel, which led nowhere, but resulted in the assassination of moderate leaders and further popularity for gonzo splinters. 

HEZBOLLAH.  Not only has Lebanon had to put up with the bloody PLO, which arrived with a load of Sunni refugees and upset the delicate balance of power, but in 1982 it then got Shia Hezbollah, The Party Of God, an Iranian proxy, which has fought and argued its way into being one of the dominant forces there – a state within a state.  Militarily, it outnumbers the Lebanese army.  It is dedicated, you won’t be surprised to hear, to the destruction of Israel and last went to war with it in 2006.  It is likely to do so again shortly, using Iranian and Russian weapons.

MY PERSONAL VIEW. Arafat’s experience of negotiating with Israel taught him that if he ever actually agreed a peace with Israel, he would be killed.  This was to have terrible consequences years later.  It had fairly terrible consequences in the short term too.  To re-establish himself with the hardliners, Arafat agreed their biggest outrage yet – to hijack a cruise ship.

THE ACHILLE LAURO.  The PLF hijacked the Achille Lauro in 1988, I think, and when it was refused docking killed a Jewish passenger in a wheelchair and dumped him overboard.  The terrorists agreed to leave the ship in return for safe conduct agreed with, I think, Egypt, but the US intercepted the plane and forced it to land in Italy, where the terrorists were tried and convicted. This cemented many people’s dislike for Palestinian “freedom fighters”.

THE FIRST INTIFADA was an originally spontaneous series of riots in Palestine.  It largely continued until:

THE OSLO ACCORDS.  In 1993 and 1995 the PLO leader Yassar Arafat and Israeli premier Yitzhak Rabin signed a series of agreements whereby the PLO recognised The State Of Israel and Israel recognised the PLO as the government of the Palestinian people, to lead to an eventual independent Palestinian state comprised of part of The West Bank and all of Gaza.  Many Palestinians were furious, and Rabin was assassinated by a particularly cross member of the Israeli right.  In the short term The Palestinian National Authority was set up with limited power to govern the West Bank and Gaza.  From memory Arafat and Rabin won the Nobel peace prize.  Critically, future negotiations were to be on an all or nothing basis – nothing agreed until everything agreed.

2000 CAMP DAVID SUMMIT.  This should have been the end of all this ****.  Israeli premier Ehud Barak offered Arafat an independent Palestinian State, with limited right of return, two highways between Gaza and The West Bank, the dismantling of the Gaza settlements, and most of the West Bank, with the most populous Israeli settlements remaining there under Israeli control.  People were stunned.  It was far, far ahead of anything Israel had appeared willing to grant before.  In my view Barak knew what I said earlier – Arafat could not settle for fear for his own life, thus Barak went a long way to make an offer he could not refuse.
But refuse it he did.  And that, ladies and gentlemen, is why we are where we are.  The cowardly old fool died a few years later anyway, personally I think he was murdered, so much good his equivocating did him.

THE SECOND INTIFADA.  With the failure of the Summit, a sustained riot and murder campaign began that lasted until 2005 when Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian National Authority, and Ariel Sharon agreed a truce.

THE RISE OF ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALISM.  When this story started, it was about land.  But we have seen the rise of Islamic Fundamentalism over the last fifty years.  We cannot any longer talk of the Arab world, it has become the Muslim world, and indeed two worlds, Shiite and Shia, many of who want to kill each other.  But they are united in one thing - hatred of Jews.  So it’s no longer about land.  For many Palestinians, no accommodation with Jews, however advantageous, can be contemplated.  It’s outside the scope of this note, but much of this is down to distinctly unholy Arab monarchs feeding and watering the loonies, who would love to execute them and replace them with clerics, in return for being allowed to retain power.  This can only be a short term strategy, and in the end the Saudi and Qatari rulers are feeding the wolves that will devour them.  But feed them they have, and the result is two generations and growing of unreasonable whackjobs.

UNILATERAL WITHDRAWAL FROM GAZA.  In 2005, even though Arafat (who died in 2004) had refused Barak’s offer, Israel set about creating an independent Palestinian State anyway.  It dismantled its Gaza settlements, removing Israelis by force (right wing Israelis call this “The Expulsion”), and withdrew its citizens and personnel from Gaza.  

2006 ELECTIONS.  In 2006 the PA (Palestinian Authority) held elections. Fatah, AKA the PLO, narrowly lost.  Hamas won.  This disguises a split – the West bank voted Fatah, Gaza, Hamas.  I forget the date of the poll, but 54% of the West bank wanted peace with Israel, 70% of Gaza, endless war until the destruction of Israel. Fatah and Hamas had a short civil war after failing to form a coalition, and Hamas has Gaza, Fatah The West Bank. Hamas has occasionally come to near truces with Israel.  This has seen a rise in the popularity of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (fed and watered by Iran).  Gaza is entirely responsible for Hamas and its actions.  Hamas is the legitimate, elected and popular government of Gaza.  When we speak of Hamas, we speak of Gaza.  Gazans are as responsible for Hamas’ actions as German civilians were for Hitler’s. 

ISRAEL’S SWING TO THE RIGHT.  With Gaza completely rejecting a two state solution and committing itself to war, many in Israel feel a two state solution just isn’t going to work.  The result has been the growth of West Bank settlements under a succession of right of centre governments. There are now roughly half a million Israelis living in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.  This is arguably illegal under international law – certainly the UN thinks so.

THE BLOCKADE.  With Hamas constantly rocketing Israel, Israel has imposed tight controls on what can and cannot enter Gaza.  Egypt, who has had troubles of its own with Hamas’ sister organisation, The Muslim Brotherhood, which won an election and was promptly deposed, banged up or executed, to the regret of nobody, is happy to co-operate.  Everybody on the planet hates Hamas and The Muslim Brotherhood (and ISIS, with which they have much in common), except crazed genocidal religious fanatics, of which they are composed.  The blockade cannot be complete, Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy in Lebanon, gets weapons in, and periodically the Israeli army storms in and grabs them.  How badly this has failed was shown on October the seventh. The next storming in will be more thorough.

Hamas has fired literally tens of thousands of rockets into Israel.  Anyone who thinks Israel are just going to put up with this every day needs their bumps felt.
Anyway, we have now reached recent history, which I’m sure you all remember.

My view on all this?  The Arab world has been trying to wipe out the Jews since 1936.  It has lost every time and is now pinned into a corner.  It deserves no sympathy as the underdog, it used to be the big dog, it has BECOME the underdog by endlessly attacking the original underdog and getting creamed.  I’m not interested in who was right or wrong in 1936, 48, 56, 67, 73, 82, etc etc.  My ears ***** up at the Camp David Summit in 2000.  That was the last chance to settle it, the Gazans in particular rejected it in favour of handouts from the hand-wringing West, weapons from genocidal Iran, and endless increasingly religiously inspired murder and conflict. So be it.  

I hope at least some people find this useful, and I apologise for errors and omissions, of which I am sure there are many.  It’s not my field.  Ask me about The Fall Of Communism next time.

 

[welsh1]

1 hour ago, Mungler said:

This is a long read and I robbed it off an engaging writer on Facebook whom I follow. It’s long, but worth reading.

 

An unreliable guide to the Arab / Israeli conflict. 
 

It seems to be assumed people chatting away know something about it, and in most cases they don’t, so someone should explain a little.  Thing is I’m the wrong person.  My interests are Russian politics and economics from 1917 to today and British politics and economics from 1900 to 2021, and most of what I know of the Middle East comes from that.  Still, nobody else seems to be doing it, so here we go.

CHRIST.  In biblical times there was a Jewish state in what we call Palestine (here on WWCP), and various gentile city states.  All of this was under the purview of the Romans, who regarded it as not worth occupying and were happy to leave the locals to it so long as they didn’t fight.  Which they did.  A lot.  I mention this because, yes, there IS an ancient Land Of Israel, they are not recent invaders.

OTTOMAN EMPIRE.  From 15?? WWCP and the general area was part of the Ottoman, ie Turkish, empire.

LAWRENCE OF ARABIA.  In WW1 the Turks chose the German side.  The British promised the Arabs independence if they rose up against the Turks.  They did.

THE BALFOUR DECLARATION. In 1920 the British Prime Minister, Arthur Balfour, stated there should be a Jewish homeland in WWCP.

THE BRITISH MANDATE.  Hard luck on the Arabs, post WW1 the newly formed League Of Nations, forerunner of The United Nations, decided they were not ready for independence and that the area should be run by the British and French. Oh, and yeah, and there would be an eventual Jewish homeland.

THE SYKES-PICOT AGREEMENT. The French and British did swapsies and the British ended up with WWCP.

THE ARAB UPRISING.  With Hitler being beastly, a lot of Jews wanted to come to Palestine to join the already large Jewish population.  The Arabs objected.  In fact they objected so much they revolted.  The British, while fighting the rebellion, let in 70k, which given what Hitler did next was far too few, and the Arabs considered far too many.  Hitler sent Eichman to see if the British would let the entire German Jewish population into WWCP.  The British refused, so Hitler went a different route.

AMERICA BUTTS IN.  In WW2 the Jews fought alongside the British, and the Arabs mostly sided with the Germans.  Post war the Arabs demanded the independence they had been promised since 1916, and no more Jews, and the Jews demanded their homeland, and they both went for the British, who had to keep a standing army of 100k there to quell trouble.  America demanded Britain let in another 100k Jews.

**** YOUR MANDATE.  The Americans had the British over a barrel.  Like all of Western Europe it was bankrupt, and needed a huge American loan.  Which, skipping slightly ahead, it spent on setting up the NHS and the Welfare State.  Yea!  Clap for nurses!  The Germans spent theirs rebuilding industry.  Now see which country you’d like to call an ambulance in.  Anyway, with 100k troops tied up keeping the peace, grief from both sides, and blackmailed by the Americans, the UK turned in its mandate, and said it wasn’t going to implement any solution without the agreement of both parties.  Good luck with that. One cause of this was the American determination to make the British dismantle their empire immediately, which is quite funny because the Americans have been fighting in, against, or for the countries so created ever since.  Good move guys.  Still, it’s sorting itself out now because the Chinese are re-colonising it all.

THE CREATION OF ISRAEL.  In 1947 the UN drew up the borders of the Jewish homeland.  Nobody was happy.  The Jews complained it was too small and they’d be slaughtered by their neighbours.  The Arabs complained about its very existence.  Nonetheless, in 1948, Israel came into being.

THE FIRST ARAB / ISRAELI WAR.  Exactly as predicted, the newly formed and existing Arab states attempted to wipe Israel off the map.  However, having survived one holocaust the Jews weren’t in the mood for another and they fought back.  They marched across WWCP and the Arab population decamped across the border to Jordan.  Talking of which, Jordan helped itself to The West Bank and Egypt took Gaza.

AL NAKBA. It is disputed why the Arabs fled.  The Arabs say the Israelis kicked them out.  The Israelis say Arab governments told them to go and they could come back as soon as Israel was wiped out.  I’m sorry, I can’t help here, I don’t know. Nonetheless, the Arab states sold the Palestinians down the river: seeing which way the war was going, they called a truce in 1949, and accepted (but did not formally recognise) the newly enlarged state of Israel.  The Palestinians call this Al-Nakba, The Catastrophe.

THE RIGHT OF RETURN.  The Palestinians in Jordan demand the right to return.  The Israelis pointed to the 20% of their population who are Arabs and stayed and said if you’d stayed you’d have been well off, but you ran off and fought to destroy us, so tough.  If they DID all return, Jews would be a minority, so there is just no way in a billion years the Israelis will agree. Pretty much any individual who left is now dead anyway.  This is 74 years ago.

THE SUEZ CRISIS.  After failing to destroy Israel by invasion, the Egyptians, by now a Russian ally, had another go in 1955/6, this time trying to starve them out by effectively blockading them.  The French, British and Israelis combined to put a stop to it and seize The Suez Canal (the British and French had been waiting for an excuse to do that). The USSR warned that it would protect its ally, Egypt, with “Destructive Weapons”, ie nukes (it is extremely unlikely that it would have, see Cuban Missile Crisis). The Americans threatened to bankrupt the British by selling all the UK bonds they held, forcing the British home, the end of the British role in the world, the collapse of the British government, and encouraging the Russians to invade Hungary.  Post WW2 the Russians had agreed to hold elections in the countries of Eastern Europe.  They did what they are now doing in Ukraine, held sham elections, claimed everyone had voted to become Russian slaves, and the rest of us could **** off.  There was some hope the resulting Russian puppets would in the end stand up to the Russians – this was, after all, just a few years later.  Hungary did indeed stand up, and the Russians dithered.  The Suez crisis showed the USSR that it could easily intimidate the US with nuclear weapons into cutting the legs off its own allies, and Russia duly sent the tanks into Hungary.  It would be another three and a half decades before Eastern Europe finally managed to kick out the Russians, who are now blatantly working on getting it back.  Another great move by Uncle Sam.  Despite the US’s intervention, Israel did fine on its own and took Gaza, I think.  I get slightly confused about who got what in 56 and 67.  It doesn’t actually matter.  What’s 11 years between friends?  Anyway, however you cut it, The Israelis won.  Two Nil.

A NUCLEAR POWER.  The French and Israelis secretly co-operated on their nuclear programs right from 1948.  Israel has been a nuclear power since 1966.  Israel has never admitted or denied this, but it is clear it has a substantial nuclear stockpile, pus the means to deliver it, and could reduce any country in The Middle East to a sheet of glass if sufficiently threatened.  The Americans widely get the blame for this, but in fact at one point they were close to invading Israel to stop it.  This has inevitably set off a nuclear arms race in the ME, with Iran, Iraq under Saddam, Syria and probably now Egypt all working on nukes themselves.  The Iraqi nuclear program was on hold from 1995 (although it was impossible to know that) and ended permanently with the US and British invasion in 2003 (which should have happened in 1991).  The Israelis delayed the Syrian nuclear program by bombing its reactor, and the Syrian civil war, which has been going on for eleven years now, has put it on hold. Iran’s nuclear program continues apace, and thus far Israel’s disruption attempts have been non military. This may change. Egypt is on good terms with the Russians again now, and, well, funny stuff is going on.  

THE SIX DAY WAR.  The Egyptians had another go, this time with Jordan and Syria.  I’m sure you can guess what happened.  The Israelis took the Sinai Peninsular from Egypt and The West Bank from Jordan.  Not fancying trouble from those three areas again, they started building settlements in Gaza, Sinai and The West Bank. After The Right Of Return, this is the next big issue. Meantime, three nil. Oh, I forgot, they took The Golan Heights from Syria.

SETTLEMENTS.  As we will see, settlements have gone in Gaza, Sinia, and, um, somewhere else.  There are few settlements in The Golan Heights, and if Syria wasn’t a war-torn nest of vipers those would probably have gone too. The issue is West Bank Settlements.  These were established as military outposts, but morphed into civilian villages, then towns and eventually cities, and documents show this was always the plan after 67. The UN, which let’s remember includes ****holes like Zimbabwe and Venezuela and has Russia in the Security Council, says these are illegal.  Israel says they are not.  When people talk of “returning to the 1967 borders” this is code for getting rid of the settlers, who now number half a million.  The obvious answer is, if you like the pre 1967 borders so much, why didn’t you accept them at the time?  And if you did return to the 1967 borders, why would we believe you would not do again what you did in 1949, 1956 and 1967?

YOM KIPPUR WAR.  (Fifty years after the start of this war Hamas invaded Israel).  Egypt, Jordan and Syria attacked Israel on 6th October 1973.  After initial success they were beaten back and Israel was within days of taking Cairo and Damascus.  By now Egypt and Syria were near Russian client states and Israel an American one.  This nearly set off WW3, with Israel, Russia and the US all being nuclear powers. In the end everyone went home.  But, point made, four nil.  That was the last time, to date, the Arab states have entered into direct conflict with Israel.

THE PLO.  The Palestine Liberation Organisation was formed in I think 1964 with the help of the Arab states to destroy Israel (that’s not a judgement, it’s a fact).  It almost immediately started splintering, and its various splinters started committing terrorist outrages throughout the world to draw attention to its cause.  These probably did said cause great harm.  The alphabet soup of its factions was the basis of an amusing section of the film Life Of Brian.  It was headquartered in Jordan, where it became a state within a state and was ejected by Jordan in 1970.  It is my judgment that being ****** off with the PLO is a major reason Jordan recognised Israel in 1994. The PLO found its new home in The Lebanon, a country of which I have fond memories before the PLO helped screw it up for everyone.  It’s a dump now. Since 1974, outrageously in my view, the PLO has been treated as the government of Palestine and has observer status at the UN. Arafat’s faction of the PLO was called Fatah.  When you hear Fatah, it’s the PLO.

1972 MUNICH OLYMPICS.  Palestinian terrorists from Black September infiltrated the Olympic village, killed two Israeli athletes and took nine hostage. All or most were killed in a bungled rescue attempt.  Three terrorists managed to negotiate their way to freedom after an airliner was hijacked.  The immediate result of this was Mossad setting up an assassination squad to deal with terrorists at large. Side note – Black September was a reference to something unpleasant that happened to two Christian villages in Israel.  The world was a different place in 1972.  Can you imagine a modern Palestinian terror group having such a name?  Terrorism was quite secular at the time.

CAMP DAVID ACCORDS.  In 1978 Egypt and Israel came to an agreement in the US.  Israel dismantled its settlements in Sinai and returned it to Egypt.  Egypt formally recognised Israel and has generally been on fairly good terms with it ever since.  It dislikes Hamas almost as much as Israel does.  As Egypt began its rapprochement with Israel, it ceased to be a client of the USSR, although in recent years the two have cosied up again. Egypt condemned Russia’s grossly illegal invasion of Ukraine, but winked and said it didn’t really mean it.

REVOLUTION IN IRAN.  Disclaimer, I have a personal interest in this, having spent my first years in Persia, and grown up surrounded by exiled Persians. Under the Shah Iran was quite a pleasant place by ME standards, albeit it with an unpleasant and repressive security apparatus called The Savak.  It had of course the usual ignorant religious whackjobs, but where in the ME didn’t? The liberal middle class, as liberal middle classes always do, wanted to liberalise further, so the idiots made common cause with the religious nuts.  The result was The Iranian Revolution, creating an official crazed genocidal theocracy which promptly killed the liberal middle classes who couldn’t run away fast enough.  Which frankly serves the fools right.  People never learn.  This happens time and time again throughout history. As Islamic nutjobs, the Iranian regime hates Israel.  Despite which during the Iran / Iraq war Israel became Iran’s man weapons supplier, largely because of Iraq’s alarming nuclear weapons program, which Western morons don’t understand existed.  Since then Iran has been devoted to the destruction of Israel, and the two have been fighting a proxy war ever since.  Hezbollah is an evil creature of The Mad Mullah’s.  Iran has its own nuclear program, and various Iranian leaders have announced their intention to bring the existing world to an end (and usher in a new one under Allah, a concept stupid, blinkered Westerners cannot understand) by nuking Israel, which will in turn nuke them right back. Israel will attack Iran before this can happen.  Iran in the meantime is propping up the failed Russian invasion of Ukraine in return for assistance with this plan.

WAR IN LEBANON, 1982.  Now based in Lebanon, and a serious player after the civil war it largely caused, and supplied with weaponry from the USSR, the PLO began firing rockets into Israel.  Israel invaded Southern Lebanon to flatten the PLO. Arafat held peace talks with Israel, which led nowhere, but resulted in the assassination of moderate leaders and further popularity for gonzo splinters. 

HEZBOLLAH.  Not only has Lebanon had to put up with the bloody PLO, which arrived with a load of Sunni refugees and upset the delicate balance of power, but in 1982 it then got Shia Hezbollah, The Party Of God, an Iranian proxy, which has fought and argued its way into being one of the dominant forces there – a state within a state.  Militarily, it outnumbers the Lebanese army.  It is dedicated, you won’t be surprised to hear, to the destruction of Israel and last went to war with it in 2006.  It is likely to do so again shortly, using Iranian and Russian weapons.

MY PERSONAL VIEW. Arafat’s experience of negotiating with Israel taught him that if he ever actually agreed a peace with Israel, he would be killed.  This was to have terrible consequences years later.  It had fairly terrible consequences in the short term too.  To re-establish himself with the hardliners, Arafat agreed their biggest outrage yet – to hijack a cruise ship.

THE ACHILLE LAURO.  The PLF hijacked the Achille Lauro in 1988, I think, and when it was refused docking killed a Jewish passenger in a wheelchair and dumped him overboard.  The terrorists agreed to leave the ship in return for safe conduct agreed with, I think, Egypt, but the US intercepted the plane and forced it to land in Italy, where the terrorists were tried and convicted. This cemented many people’s dislike for Palestinian “freedom fighters”.

THE FIRST INTIFADA was an originally spontaneous series of riots in Palestine.  It largely continued until:

THE OSLO ACCORDS.  In 1993 and 1995 the PLO leader Yassar Arafat and Israeli premier Yitzhak Rabin signed a series of agreements whereby the PLO recognised The State Of Israel and Israel recognised the PLO as the government of the Palestinian people, to lead to an eventual independent Palestinian state comprised of part of The West Bank and all of Gaza.  Many Palestinians were furious, and Rabin was assassinated by a particularly cross member of the Israeli right.  In the short term The Palestinian National Authority was set up with limited power to govern the West Bank and Gaza.  From memory Arafat and Rabin won the Nobel peace prize.  Critically, future negotiations were to be on an all or nothing basis – nothing agreed until everything agreed.

2000 CAMP DAVID SUMMIT.  This should have been the end of all this ****.  Israeli premier Ehud Barak offered Arafat an independent Palestinian State, with limited right of return, two highways between Gaza and The West Bank, the dismantling of the Gaza settlements, and most of the West Bank, with the most populous Israeli settlements remaining there under Israeli control.  People were stunned.  It was far, far ahead of anything Israel had appeared willing to grant before.  In my view Barak knew what I said earlier – Arafat could not settle for fear for his own life, thus Barak went a long way to make an offer he could not refuse.
But refuse it he did.  And that, ladies and gentlemen, is why we are where we are.  The cowardly old fool died a few years later anyway, personally I think he was murdered, so much good his equivocating did him.

THE SECOND INTIFADA.  With the failure of the Summit, a sustained riot and murder campaign began that lasted until 2005 when Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian National Authority, and Ariel Sharon agreed a truce.

THE RISE OF ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALISM.  When this story started, it was about land.  But we have seen the rise of Islamic Fundamentalism over the last fifty years.  We cannot any longer talk of the Arab world, it has become the Muslim world, and indeed two worlds, Shiite and Shia, many of who want to kill each other.  But they are united in one thing - hatred of Jews.  So it’s no longer about land.  For many Palestinians, no accommodation with Jews, however advantageous, can be contemplated.  It’s outside the scope of this note, but much of this is down to distinctly unholy Arab monarchs feeding and watering the loonies, who would love to execute them and replace them with clerics, in return for being allowed to retain power.  This can only be a short term strategy, and in the end the Saudi and Qatari rulers are feeding the wolves that will devour them.  But feed them they have, and the result is two generations and growing of unreasonable whackjobs.

UNILATERAL WITHDRAWAL FROM GAZA.  In 2005, even though Arafat (who died in 2004) had refused Barak’s offer, Israel set about creating an independent Palestinian State anyway.  It dismantled its Gaza settlements, removing Israelis by force (right wing Israelis call this “The Expulsion”), and withdrew its citizens and personnel from Gaza.  

2006 ELECTIONS.  In 2006 the PA (Palestinian Authority) held elections. Fatah, AKA the PLO, narrowly lost.  Hamas won.  This disguises a split – the West bank voted Fatah, Gaza, Hamas.  I forget the date of the poll, but 54% of the West bank wanted peace with Israel, 70% of Gaza, endless war until the destruction of Israel. Fatah and Hamas had a short civil war after failing to form a coalition, and Hamas has Gaza, Fatah The West Bank. Hamas has occasionally come to near truces with Israel.  This has seen a rise in the popularity of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (fed and watered by Iran).  Gaza is entirely responsible for Hamas and its actions.  Hamas is the legitimate, elected and popular government of Gaza.  When we speak of Hamas, we speak of Gaza.  Gazans are as responsible for Hamas’ actions as German civilians were for Hitler’s. 

ISRAEL’S SWING TO THE RIGHT.  With Gaza completely rejecting a two state solution and committing itself to war, many in Israel feel a two state solution just isn’t going to work.  The result has been the growth of West Bank settlements under a succession of right of centre governments. There are now roughly half a million Israelis living in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.  This is arguably illegal under international law – certainly the UN thinks so.

THE BLOCKADE.  With Hamas constantly rocketing Israel, Israel has imposed tight controls on what can and cannot enter Gaza.  Egypt, who has had troubles of its own with Hamas’ sister organisation, The Muslim Brotherhood, which won an election and was promptly deposed, banged up or executed, to the regret of nobody, is happy to co-operate.  Everybody on the planet hates Hamas and The Muslim Brotherhood (and ISIS, with which they have much in common), except crazed genocidal religious fanatics, of which they are composed.  The blockade cannot be complete, Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy in Lebanon, gets weapons in, and periodically the Israeli army storms in and grabs them.  How badly this has failed was shown on October the seventh. The next storming in will be more thorough.

Hamas has fired literally tens of thousands of rockets into Israel.  Anyone who thinks Israel are just going to put up with this every day needs their bumps felt.
Anyway, we have now reached recent history, which I’m sure you all remember.

My view on all this?  The Arab world has been trying to wipe out the Jews since 1936.  It has lost every time and is now pinned into a corner.  It deserves no sympathy as the underdog, it used to be the big dog, it has BECOME the underdog by endlessly attacking the original underdog and getting creamed.  I’m not interested in who was right or wrong in 1936, 48, 56, 67, 73, 82, etc etc.  My ears ***** up at the Camp David Summit in 2000.  That was the last chance to settle it, the Gazans in particular rejected it in favour of handouts from the hand-wringing West, weapons from genocidal Iran, and endless increasingly religiously inspired murder and conflict. So be it.  

I hope at least some people find this useful, and I apologise for errors and omissions, of which I am sure there are many.  It’s not my field.  Ask me about The Fall Of Communism next time.

 

Well worth the read and a good insight to why the middle east is where it is today.
Have to agree with the last paragraph.

[12gauge82]

Thanks for that Mungler, that is the most in depth explanation of the situation there I have seen 👍

[Penelope]

1 hour ago, Mungler said:

Supporting the Palestinians is a ‘high status’ opinion. People adopt high status opinions to signal to the world that they are highly socially attuned and of a higher social status.

It means following the likes of Gary Lineker, rainbow flags, trans rights, backing the latest socially acceptable cause and so on. In the old days it was just woke virtue signalling.

There is nothing to it though. There’s no real principles or morality here; look how quickly the virtue signalling hypocritical footballers, pundits and media luvvies pitched up to Qatar to get their snouts in the trough. 

But yes there is a pervading ignorance; the best example was the chap with the ‘Queers support Palestine’ flag. 

Indeed the same lot who were out with their rainbow and trans flags are now happily backing a terrorist regime (and a religiously indoctrinated people) that are positively, absolutely and violently apposed to those causes. It’s a bizarre nonsense really. 

And in the background I’ve never met a hard lefty who will give a Jew an even break. The Labour party is a simmering cauldron of hidden anti semitism; they are all biting their lips hard and waiting for the next general election. Where did we think all those Momentum, Corbyn supporters and other lefty mouthpieces went? What about all the Labour councillors in those lovely multicultural boroughs and wards?

Jew hating is the last socially acceptable  form of racism by those who so loudly decry racism because it is considered to be high status to do so. 

 

[oowee]

7 hours ago, Flashman said:

 

I think it's clear in both my previous posts.

I think we can see where you stand. 

@MunglerThat looks to me to be a pretty good appraisal of the history. 👍 

Within all of this fighting and back stabbing has been the rise and growth of Jewish fundamentalism that seeks forced relocation and an expansion of the Jewish state and borders. This fundamentalist belief has in turn reduced the rights of Palestinians. A belief that bloody fighting will continue until the temple is rebuilt and the messiah arrives, only then, true peace is found. Only a truly Jewish centred state can be at peace and equality between Jews and Arabs is inappropriate. This is the basis for the assassination of Rabin who sought a negotiated settlement. 

These fundamental beliefs run through government. It was Netanyahu that led an anti Rabin rally complete with coffin and noose. 

[Penelope]

1 hour ago, Mungler said:

This is a long read and I robbed it off an engaging writer on Facebook whom I follow. It’s long, but worth reading.

 

An unreliable guide to the Arab / Israeli conflict. 
 

It seems to be assumed people chatting away know something about it, and in most cases they don’t, so someone should explain a little.  Thing is I’m the wrong person.  My interests are Russian politics and economics from 1917 to today and British politics and economics from 1900 to 2021, and most of what I know of the Middle East comes from that.  Still, nobody else seems to be doing it, so here we go.

CHRIST.  In biblical times there was a Jewish state in what we call Palestine (here on WWCP), and various gentile city states.  All of this was under the purview of the Romans, who regarded it as not worth occupying and were happy to leave the locals to it so long as they didn’t fight.  Which they did.  A lot.  I mention this because, yes, there IS an ancient Land Of Israel, they are not recent invaders.

OTTOMAN EMPIRE.  From 15?? WWCP and the general area was part of the Ottoman, ie Turkish, empire.

LAWRENCE OF ARABIA.  In WW1 the Turks chose the German side.  The British promised the Arabs independence if they rose up against the Turks.  They did.

THE BALFOUR DECLARATION. In 1920 the British Prime Minister, Arthur Balfour, stated there should be a Jewish homeland in WWCP.

THE BRITISH MANDATE.  Hard luck on the Arabs, post WW1 the newly formed League Of Nations, forerunner of The United Nations, decided they were not ready for independence and that the area should be run by the British and French. Oh, and yeah, and there would be an eventual Jewish homeland.

THE SYKES-PICOT AGREEMENT. The French and British did swapsies and the British ended up with WWCP.

THE ARAB UPRISING.  With Hitler being beastly, a lot of Jews wanted to come to Palestine to join the already large Jewish population.  The Arabs objected.  In fact they objected so much they revolted.  The British, while fighting the rebellion, let in 70k, which given what Hitler did next was far too few, and the Arabs considered far too many.  Hitler sent Eichman to see if the British would let the entire German Jewish population into WWCP.  The British refused, so Hitler went a different route.

AMERICA BUTTS IN.  In WW2 the Jews fought alongside the British, and the Arabs mostly sided with the Germans.  Post war the Arabs demanded the independence they had been promised since 1916, and no more Jews, and the Jews demanded their homeland, and they both went for the British, who had to keep a standing army of 100k there to quell trouble.  America demanded Britain let in another 100k Jews.

**** YOUR MANDATE.  The Americans had the British over a barrel.  Like all of Western Europe it was bankrupt, and needed a huge American loan.  Which, skipping slightly ahead, it spent on setting up the NHS and the Welfare State.  Yea!  Clap for nurses!  The Germans spent theirs rebuilding industry.  Now see which country you’d like to call an ambulance in.  Anyway, with 100k troops tied up keeping the peace, grief from both sides, and blackmailed by the Americans, the UK turned in its mandate, and said it wasn’t going to implement any solution without the agreement of both parties.  Good luck with that. One cause of this was the American determination to make the British dismantle their empire immediately, which is quite funny because the Americans have been fighting in, against, or for the countries so created ever since.  Good move guys.  Still, it’s sorting itself out now because the Chinese are re-colonising it all.

THE CREATION OF ISRAEL.  In 1947 the UN drew up the borders of the Jewish homeland.  Nobody was happy.  The Jews complained it was too small and they’d be slaughtered by their neighbours.  The Arabs complained about its very existence.  Nonetheless, in 1948, Israel came into being.

THE FIRST ARAB / ISRAELI WAR.  Exactly as predicted, the newly formed and existing Arab states attempted to wipe Israel off the map.  However, having survived one holocaust the Jews weren’t in the mood for another and they fought back.  They marched across WWCP and the Arab population decamped across the border to Jordan.  Talking of which, Jordan helped itself to The West Bank and Egypt took Gaza.

AL NAKBA. It is disputed why the Arabs fled.  The Arabs say the Israelis kicked them out.  The Israelis say Arab governments told them to go and they could come back as soon as Israel was wiped out.  I’m sorry, I can’t help here, I don’t know. Nonetheless, the Arab states sold the Palestinians down the river: seeing which way the war was going, they called a truce in 1949, and accepted (but did not formally recognise) the newly enlarged state of Israel.  The Palestinians call this Al-Nakba, The Catastrophe.

THE RIGHT OF RETURN.  The Palestinians in Jordan demand the right to return.  The Israelis pointed to the 20% of their population who are Arabs and stayed and said if you’d stayed you’d have been well off, but you ran off and fought to destroy us, so tough.  If they DID all return, Jews would be a minority, so there is just no way in a billion years the Israelis will agree. Pretty much any individual who left is now dead anyway.  This is 74 years ago.

THE SUEZ CRISIS.  After failing to destroy Israel by invasion, the Egyptians, by now a Russian ally, had another go in 1955/6, this time trying to starve them out by effectively blockading them.  The French, British and Israelis combined to put a stop to it and seize The Suez Canal (the British and French had been waiting for an excuse to do that). The USSR warned that it would protect its ally, Egypt, with “Destructive Weapons”, ie nukes (it is extremely unlikely that it would have, see Cuban Missile Crisis). The Americans threatened to bankrupt the British by selling all the UK bonds they held, forcing the British home, the end of the British role in the world, the collapse of the British government, and encouraging the Russians to invade Hungary.  Post WW2 the Russians had agreed to hold elections in the countries of Eastern Europe.  They did what they are now doing in Ukraine, held sham elections, claimed everyone had voted to become Russian slaves, and the rest of us could **** off.  There was some hope the resulting Russian puppets would in the end stand up to the Russians – this was, after all, just a few years later.  Hungary did indeed stand up, and the Russians dithered.  The Suez crisis showed the USSR that it could easily intimidate the US with nuclear weapons into cutting the legs off its own allies, and Russia duly sent the tanks into Hungary.  It would be another three and a half decades before Eastern Europe finally managed to kick out the Russians, who are now blatantly working on getting it back.  Another great move by Uncle Sam.  Despite the US’s intervention, Israel did fine on its own and took Gaza, I think.  I get slightly confused about who got what in 56 and 67.  It doesn’t actually matter.  What’s 11 years between friends?  Anyway, however you cut it, The Israelis won.  Two Nil.

A NUCLEAR POWER.  The French and Israelis secretly co-operated on their nuclear programs right from 1948.  Israel has been a nuclear power since 1966.  Israel has never admitted or denied this, but it is clear it has a substantial nuclear stockpile, pus the means to deliver it, and could reduce any country in The Middle East to a sheet of glass if sufficiently threatened.  The Americans widely get the blame for this, but in fact at one point they were close to invading Israel to stop it.  This has inevitably set off a nuclear arms race in the ME, with Iran, Iraq under Saddam, Syria and probably now Egypt all working on nukes themselves.  The Iraqi nuclear program was on hold from 1995 (although it was impossible to know that) and ended permanently with the US and British invasion in 2003 (which should have happened in 1991).  The Israelis delayed the Syrian nuclear program by bombing its reactor, and the Syrian civil war, which has been going on for eleven years now, has put it on hold. Iran’s nuclear program continues apace, and thus far Israel’s disruption attempts have been non military. This may change. Egypt is on good terms with the Russians again now, and, well, funny stuff is going on.  

THE SIX DAY WAR.  The Egyptians had another go, this time with Jordan and Syria.  I’m sure you can guess what happened.  The Israelis took the Sinai Peninsular from Egypt and The West Bank from Jordan.  Not fancying trouble from those three areas again, they started building settlements in Gaza, Sinai and The West Bank. After The Right Of Return, this is the next big issue. Meantime, three nil. Oh, I forgot, they took The Golan Heights from Syria.

SETTLEMENTS.  As we will see, settlements have gone in Gaza, Sinia, and, um, somewhere else.  There are few settlements in The Golan Heights, and if Syria wasn’t a war-torn nest of vipers those would probably have gone too. The issue is West Bank Settlements.  These were established as military outposts, but morphed into civilian villages, then towns and eventually cities, and documents show this was always the plan after 67. The UN, which let’s remember includes ****holes like Zimbabwe and Venezuela and has Russia in the Security Council, says these are illegal.  Israel says they are not.  When people talk of “returning to the 1967 borders” this is code for getting rid of the settlers, who now number half a million.  The obvious answer is, if you like the pre 1967 borders so much, why didn’t you accept them at the time?  And if you did return to the 1967 borders, why would we believe you would not do again what you did in 1949, 1956 and 1967?

YOM KIPPUR WAR.  (Fifty years after the start of this war Hamas invaded Israel).  Egypt, Jordan and Syria attacked Israel on 6th October 1973.  After initial success they were beaten back and Israel was within days of taking Cairo and Damascus.  By now Egypt and Syria were near Russian client states and Israel an American one.  This nearly set off WW3, with Israel, Russia and the US all being nuclear powers. In the end everyone went home.  But, point made, four nil.  That was the last time, to date, the Arab states have entered into direct conflict with Israel.

THE PLO.  The Palestine Liberation Organisation was formed in I think 1964 with the help of the Arab states to destroy Israel (that’s not a judgement, it’s a fact).  It almost immediately started splintering, and its various splinters started committing terrorist outrages throughout the world to draw attention to its cause.  These probably did said cause great harm.  The alphabet soup of its factions was the basis of an amusing section of the film Life Of Brian.  It was headquartered in Jordan, where it became a state within a state and was ejected by Jordan in 1970.  It is my judgment that being ****** off with the PLO is a major reason Jordan recognised Israel in 1994. The PLO found its new home in The Lebanon, a country of which I have fond memories before the PLO helped screw it up for everyone.  It’s a dump now. Since 1974, outrageously in my view, the PLO has been treated as the government of Palestine and has observer status at the UN. Arafat’s faction of the PLO was called Fatah.  When you hear Fatah, it’s the PLO.

1972 MUNICH OLYMPICS.  Palestinian terrorists from Black September infiltrated the Olympic village, killed two Israeli athletes and took nine hostage. All or most were killed in a bungled rescue attempt.  Three terrorists managed to negotiate their way to freedom after an airliner was hijacked.  The immediate result of this was Mossad setting up an assassination squad to deal with terrorists at large. Side note – Black September was a reference to something unpleasant that happened to two Christian villages in Israel.  The world was a different place in 1972.  Can you imagine a modern Palestinian terror group having such a name?  Terrorism was quite secular at the time.

CAMP DAVID ACCORDS.  In 1978 Egypt and Israel came to an agreement in the US.  Israel dismantled its settlements in Sinai and returned it to Egypt.  Egypt formally recognised Israel and has generally been on fairly good terms with it ever since.  It dislikes Hamas almost as much as Israel does.  As Egypt began its rapprochement with Israel, it ceased to be a client of the USSR, although in recent years the two have cosied up again. Egypt condemned Russia’s grossly illegal invasion of Ukraine, but winked and said it didn’t really mean it.

REVOLUTION IN IRAN.  Disclaimer, I have a personal interest in this, having spent my first years in Persia, and grown up surrounded by exiled Persians. Under the Shah Iran was quite a pleasant place by ME standards, albeit it with an unpleasant and repressive security apparatus called The Savak.  It had of course the usual ignorant religious whackjobs, but where in the ME didn’t? The liberal middle class, as liberal middle classes always do, wanted to liberalise further, so the idiots made common cause with the religious nuts.  The result was The Iranian Revolution, creating an official crazed genocidal theocracy which promptly killed the liberal middle classes who couldn’t run away fast enough.  Which frankly serves the fools right.  People never learn.  This happens time and time again throughout history. As Islamic nutjobs, the Iranian regime hates Israel.  Despite which during the Iran / Iraq war Israel became Iran’s man weapons supplier, largely because of Iraq’s alarming nuclear weapons program, which Western morons don’t understand existed.  Since then Iran has been devoted to the destruction of Israel, and the two have been fighting a proxy war ever since.  Hezbollah is an evil creature of The Mad Mullah’s.  Iran has its own nuclear program, and various Iranian leaders have announced their intention to bring the existing world to an end (and usher in a new one under Allah, a concept stupid, blinkered Westerners cannot understand) by nuking Israel, which will in turn nuke them right back. Israel will attack Iran before this can happen.  Iran in the meantime is propping up the failed Russian invasion of Ukraine in return for assistance with this plan.

WAR IN LEBANON, 1982.  Now based in Lebanon, and a serious player after the civil war it largely caused, and supplied with weaponry from the USSR, the PLO began firing rockets into Israel.  Israel invaded Southern Lebanon to flatten the PLO. Arafat held peace talks with Israel, which led nowhere, but resulted in the assassination of moderate leaders and further popularity for gonzo splinters. 

HEZBOLLAH.  Not only has Lebanon had to put up with the bloody PLO, which arrived with a load of Sunni refugees and upset the delicate balance of power, but in 1982 it then got Shia Hezbollah, The Party Of God, an Iranian proxy, which has fought and argued its way into being one of the dominant forces there – a state within a state.  Militarily, it outnumbers the Lebanese army.  It is dedicated, you won’t be surprised to hear, to the destruction of Israel and last went to war with it in 2006.  It is likely to do so again shortly, using Iranian and Russian weapons.

MY PERSONAL VIEW. Arafat’s experience of negotiating with Israel taught him that if he ever actually agreed a peace with Israel, he would be killed.  This was to have terrible consequences years later.  It had fairly terrible consequences in the short term too.  To re-establish himself with the hardliners, Arafat agreed their biggest outrage yet – to hijack a cruise ship.

THE ACHILLE LAURO.  The PLF hijacked the Achille Lauro in 1988, I think, and when it was refused docking killed a Jewish passenger in a wheelchair and dumped him overboard.  The terrorists agreed to leave the ship in return for safe conduct agreed with, I think, Egypt, but the US intercepted the plane and forced it to land in Italy, where the terrorists were tried and convicted. This cemented many people’s dislike for Palestinian “freedom fighters”.

THE FIRST INTIFADA was an originally spontaneous series of riots in Palestine.  It largely continued until:

THE OSLO ACCORDS.  In 1993 and 1995 the PLO leader Yassar Arafat and Israeli premier Yitzhak Rabin signed a series of agreements whereby the PLO recognised The State Of Israel and Israel recognised the PLO as the government of the Palestinian people, to lead to an eventual independent Palestinian state comprised of part of The West Bank and all of Gaza.  Many Palestinians were furious, and Rabin was assassinated by a particularly cross member of the Israeli right.  In the short term The Palestinian National Authority was set up with limited power to govern the West Bank and Gaza.  From memory Arafat and Rabin won the Nobel peace prize.  Critically, future negotiations were to be on an all or nothing basis – nothing agreed until everything agreed.

2000 CAMP DAVID SUMMIT.  This should have been the end of all this ****.  Israeli premier Ehud Barak offered Arafat an independent Palestinian State, with limited right of return, two highways between Gaza and The West Bank, the dismantling of the Gaza settlements, and most of the West Bank, with the most populous Israeli settlements remaining there under Israeli control.  People were stunned.  It was far, far ahead of anything Israel had appeared willing to grant before.  In my view Barak knew what I said earlier – Arafat could not settle for fear for his own life, thus Barak went a long way to make an offer he could not refuse.
But refuse it he did.  And that, ladies and gentlemen, is why we are where we are.  The cowardly old fool died a few years later anyway, personally I think he was murdered, so much good his equivocating did him.

THE SECOND INTIFADA.  With the failure of the Summit, a sustained riot and murder campaign began that lasted until 2005 when Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian National Authority, and Ariel Sharon agreed a truce.

THE RISE OF ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALISM.  When this story started, it was about land.  But we have seen the rise of Islamic Fundamentalism over the last fifty years.  We cannot any longer talk of the Arab world, it has become the Muslim world, and indeed two worlds, Shiite and Shia, many of who want to kill each other.  But they are united in one thing - hatred of Jews.  So it’s no longer about land.  For many Palestinians, no accommodation with Jews, however advantageous, can be contemplated.  It’s outside the scope of this note, but much of this is down to distinctly unholy Arab monarchs feeding and watering the loonies, who would love to execute them and replace them with clerics, in return for being allowed to retain power.  This can only be a short term strategy, and in the end the Saudi and Qatari rulers are feeding the wolves that will devour them.  But feed them they have, and the result is two generations and growing of unreasonable whackjobs.

UNILATERAL WITHDRAWAL FROM GAZA.  In 2005, even though Arafat (who died in 2004) had refused Barak’s offer, Israel set about creating an independent Palestinian State anyway.  It dismantled its Gaza settlements, removing Israelis by force (right wing Israelis call this “The Expulsion”), and withdrew its citizens and personnel from Gaza.  

2006 ELECTIONS.  In 2006 the PA (Palestinian Authority) held elections. Fatah, AKA the PLO, narrowly lost.  Hamas won.  This disguises a split – the West bank voted Fatah, Gaza, Hamas.  I forget the date of the poll, but 54% of the West bank wanted peace with Israel, 70% of Gaza, endless war until the destruction of Israel. Fatah and Hamas had a short civil war after failing to form a coalition, and Hamas has Gaza, Fatah The West Bank. Hamas has occasionally come to near truces with Israel.  This has seen a rise in the popularity of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (fed and watered by Iran).  Gaza is entirely responsible for Hamas and its actions.  Hamas is the legitimate, elected and popular government of Gaza.  When we speak of Hamas, we speak of Gaza.  Gazans are as responsible for Hamas’ actions as German civilians were for Hitler’s. 

ISRAEL’S SWING TO THE RIGHT.  With Gaza completely rejecting a two state solution and committing itself to war, many in Israel feel a two state solution just isn’t going to work.  The result has been the growth of West Bank settlements under a succession of right of centre governments. There are now roughly half a million Israelis living in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.  This is arguably illegal under international law – certainly the UN thinks so.

THE BLOCKADE.  With Hamas constantly rocketing Israel, Israel has imposed tight controls on what can and cannot enter Gaza.  Egypt, who has had troubles of its own with Hamas’ sister organisation, The Muslim Brotherhood, which won an election and was promptly deposed, banged up or executed, to the regret of nobody, is happy to co-operate.  Everybody on the planet hates Hamas and The Muslim Brotherhood (and ISIS, with which they have much in common), except crazed genocidal religious fanatics, of which they are composed.  The blockade cannot be complete, Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy in Lebanon, gets weapons in, and periodically the Israeli army storms in and grabs them.  How badly this has failed was shown on October the seventh. The next storming in will be more thorough.

Hamas has fired literally tens of thousands of rockets into Israel.  Anyone who thinks Israel are just going to put up with this every day needs their bumps felt.
Anyway, we have now reached recent history, which I’m sure you all remember.

My view on all this?  The Arab world has been trying to wipe out the Jews since 1936.  It has lost every time and is now pinned into a corner.  It deserves no sympathy as the underdog, it used to be the big dog, it has BECOME the underdog by endlessly attacking the original underdog and getting creamed.  I’m not interested in who was right or wrong in 1936, 48, 56, 67, 73, 82, etc etc.  My ears ***** up at the Camp David Summit in 2000.  That was the last chance to settle it, the Gazans in particular rejected it in favour of handouts from the hand-wringing West, weapons from genocidal Iran, and endless increasingly religiously inspired murder and conflict. So be it.  

I hope at least some people find this useful, and I apologise for errors and omissions, of which I am sure there are many.  It’s not my field.  Ask me about The Fall Of Communism next time.

 

 

[Gordon R]

Mungler - thanks for that piece. Whilst I thought I had a rough handle on the history, I have been educated.