Billionaire Hit Job

[oowee]

21 minutes ago, Keith 66 said:

Who knows? One would think the paid crew would have had some warning & time to batten down hatches etc, but boats like this have big windows & patio doors etc to create big open areas for entertaining, what price those if a waterspout scores a direct hit with winds over & above hurricane force?

It will be fascinating to hear the findings of the investigation. With the keel up and the mast off broken to one side you wonder about the point of positive stability. 

Edited August 21 by oowee

[Lloyd90]

4 hours ago, JohnfromUK said:

At the speed it went down, IF (I don't believe it was) it was caused by a 'hole', it must have been a very big one and will be obvious on the sunken remains.  It seems documented that the mast broke first and may have listed it enough to allow water in through open hatches/portholes. 

If it was hit directly by the 'eye' of a waterspout type storm, that would be very damaging.

It seems most likely that insufficient precautions were taken against the storm, which (as a waterspout type) may well have been very fierce over a very small area, thus not damaging any nearby vessels.  The speed at which it went down suggests that hatches/portholes were open.

Reports now (initially) saying the mast is intact on the seabed and no obvious damage… mixed messages so far.

1 hour ago, Mice! said:

I very much doubt it, not when your talking about Billions, the odds of those two men dying the same weekend must have been in the Billions,  unless they weren't accidents. 

Yes the ship sinking I could believe but the odds of the co defendant being struck by a car the very same weekend and dying … 

People would see a potential conspiracy if he had died anywhere near but the same weekend?! 

[JohnfromUK]

5 minutes ago, Lloyd90 said:

Reports now (initially) saying the mast is intact on the seabed and no obvious damage…

Yes I see that.  I'm fairly sure I read earlier that the mast had snapped as a big play was being made of it being the tallest aluminium mast on any vessel.

[TIGHTCHOKE]

2 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

I'm fairly sure I read earlier that the mast had snapped as a big play was being made of it being the tallest aluminium mast on any vessel.

Yes that was reported.

But, the mast breaking off should have made the vessel more buoyant.

Unless of course they do find witness marks that it was damaged and the hull was Spoiled.

[JohnfromUK]

Just now, TIGHTCHOKE said:

But, the mast breaking off should have made the vessel more buoyant.

The 'sketch' I saw showed the mast effectively folded over and hanging out of one side.  It was suggested that made the vessel list badly as the weight of the mast was now well out at one side and IF the portholes/hatched were open, that may have allowed water in to the hull.

However, with a mast of that height, I assume that quite a small list (from a violent tornado type wind) couple with a very tall mast might allow it to list far enough to get water in if there were open portholes?

It has also been speculated that the keel was able to be raised (get better clearance under?) and lowered (get better stability) and this may not have been in the correct position? 

It's all speculation at this point.

[TIGHTCHOKE]

2 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

It's all speculation at this point.

It certainly is.

[steve_b_wales]

Just announced, two more bodies have been found inside the yacht.

UPDATE:

Four bodies have been recovered from inside the yacht, so far.

Edited August 21 by steve_b_wales

[Bigbob]

Make a good thriller for the BBC 

[stumfelter]

What's with the mast being so long? Is it a nautical example of "mines longer than yours?"

[TIGHTCHOKE]

1 minute ago, stumfelter said:

What's with the mast being so long? Is it a nautical example of "mines longer than yours?"

Of course it is.

[stumfelter]

Oowee, do mariners suffer with 'mast envy?' 😂😂

[oowee]

2 hours ago, stumfelter said:

Oowee, do mariners suffer with 'mast envy?' 😂😂

I would compare mine to the tender to Bayesian. 😁

6 hours ago, JohnfromUK said:

 

It has also been speculated that the keel was able to be raised (get better clearance under?) and lowered (get better stability) and this may not have been in the correct position? 

It's all speculation at this point.

10m keel extended and 4m raised. 10m is a hell of a depth and would not allow the boat close to shore in many places. 4m would be a huge weight to lift. The keel of a boat is connected to the mast tied together with the supporting shrouds to form a single supported structure. Speculation of course but somewhere there will be a design fault. 

[JohnfromUK]

2 minutes ago, oowee said:

10m keel extended and 4m raised. 10m is a hell of a depth and would not allow the boat close to shore in many places.

They are figures from the press, so may not be reliable.  On the other hand, with such a huge mast, the keel would also be big.  This (https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/21/within-a-few-minutes-there-was-nothing-left-sailors-on-sinking-of-bayesian-superyacht) also seems to confirm 10m and indicates that the keel was probably partly raised.

[JohnfromUK]

And a bit more on masts and keels here  https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/mike-lynch-bayesian-yacht-questions-sink-sicily-b2599426.html

[Keith 66]

Many superyachts of similar type have lifting keels, they have to to access often small ports otherwise draft would be too great. Keel will be a steel fabrication with large lead bulb at the bottom. It will be raised by hydraulics. An article on the Boat design forum shows photos that reveal the centre deck section formed a well deck or sunken area designed for entertaining, If the keel is up & the boat knocked down by a sudden violent wind areas like this will be a liability. Lots of big picture windows etc...

I studied yacht design & was a boatbuilder for most of my career so do find this quite fascinating. I suspect there will be much alteration of building codes after this.

[TIGHTCHOKE]

9 hours ago, Keith 66 said:

Many superyachts of similar type have lifting keels, they have to to access often small ports otherwise draft would be too great. Keel will be a steel fabrication with large lead bulb at the bottom. It will be raised by hydraulics. An article on the Boat design forum shows photos that reveal the centre deck section formed a well deck or sunken area designed for entertaining, If the keel is up & the boat knocked down by a sudden violent wind areas like this will be a liability. Lots of big picture windows etc...

I studied yacht design & was a boatbuilder for most of my career so do find this quite fascinating. I suspect there will be much alteration of building codes after this.

Unless they do raise her and find damning evidence of a "HIT"

[steve s×s]

On 20/08/2024 at 23:29, Weihrauch17 said:

They will probably recover the boat so if an underwater hit man blew the hull at the same time a tornado struck it apparent it will become.  Just a very strange coincidence I think. 

Maybe just maybe there is a God 

[Keith 66]

There is a video online of a very similar tall masted yacht being knocked flat at anchor by a storm recently, it also flipped a large catamaran upside down, she had been round the world & was a heavy boat yet got flipped like a piece of plywood, it happens. My money is on wrong time wrong place.

[Raja Clavata]

I’m no expert but a very close friends son has a marine welding business in the South of France. What I do know is that he sees a surprising number of vessels, some super yachts, that have either not been built to design spec or through analysis of proposed modifications are found to have flawed designs.

Regarding the notion of a hit, in combination with the other accident, it did cross my mind briefly but I do tend towards a vivid imagination.

[oowee]

My money would be on a design failure. I appreciate that this is a custom design and build but the construction quality of yachts seems to be mostly still in the dark ages.

Pretty much any car you buy today is fit for purpose. Boat design and building has not made the same leaps forward. Sure there are great advances in the layup of materials and the strength of hulls etc but the rest seems to be pretty much made up on the hoof. The boat designers seem to be more concerned with aesthetics than operation and maintenance 

[12gauge82]

16 minutes ago, oowee said:

My money would be on a design failure. I appreciate that this is a custom design and build but the construction quality of yachts seems to be mostly still in the dark ages.

Pretty much any car you buy today is fit for purpose. Boat design and building has not made the same leaps forward. Sure there are great advances in the layup of materials and the strength of hulls etc but the rest seems to be pretty much made up on the hoof. The boat designers seem to be more concerned with aesthetics than operation and maintenance 

I'm going with your theory. You own one boat more than me, which makes you an expert in my eyes 🤣

[JohnfromUK]

I don't know much about these matters, so can only go on what I read.  However, the press seem to be saying that the keel was in the (at least partially) raised position even though the location was deep water.  I appreciate no sails were deployed, but press comment suggests that the keel would normally have been 'down' unless it was needed to be up due to limited water below.  It would also have been lowered if possible when poor weather was expected to ensure better stability.

The weather forecast was sufficiently poor for a similar sized vessel a short distance away to prepare for bad weather and start the engines to enable it to manoeuvre to best ride out the expected storm.  It is not clear whether such precautions had been taken on Bayesian.

[oowee]

3 hours ago, JohnfromUK said:

I don't know much about these matters, so can only go on what I read.  However, the press seem to be saying that the keel was in the (at least partially) raised position even though the location was deep water.  I appreciate no sails were deployed, but press comment suggests that the keel would normally have been 'down' unless it was needed to be up due to limited water below.  It would also have been lowered if possible when poor weather was expected to ensure better stability.

The weather forecast was sufficiently poor for a similar sized vessel a short distance away to prepare for bad weather and start the engines to enable it to manoeuvre to best ride out the expected storm.  It is not clear whether such precautions had been taken on Bayesian.

That's interesting. A normal sail boat (there are not so many) with a lifting keel would put the keel down in rough weather at anchor. If the keel is drawing 10m then the boat would likely be well off shore. We would normally anchor in 4m of water in UK and 3m in the med. Boats with swing keels are susceptible to wear on the keel hinge. When they are down they can knock in the box, unpleasant if you want to sleep. 

We would not put our engine on at anchor in a storm. If we were not lying to weather we would deploy a line to the anchor chain to turn the boat or put the rudder over. Maybe running the engines is something for large boats. 

[JohnfromUK]

2 minutes ago, oowee said:

That's interesting. A normal sail boat (there are not so many) with a lifting keel would put the keel down in rough weather at anchor. If the keel is drawing 10m then the boat would likely be well off shore. We would normally anchor in 4m of water in UK and 3m in the med. Boats with swing keels are susceptible to wear on the keel hinge. When they are down they can knock in the box, unpleasant if you want to sleep. 

We would not put our engine on at anchor in a storm. If we were not lying to weather we would deploy a line to the anchor chain to turn the boat or put the rudder over. Maybe running the engines is something for large boats. 

I'm 'out of my depth' - but the Telegraph reported "While exploring the Bayesian 165ft underwater on the seabed, it was reported that the vessel’s retractable keel was partially raised, raising questions about the boat’s stability at the time of the sinking." and "large superyachts are typically fitted with a lifting keel, allowing part of the keel to retract inside the vessel and reduce the draft. In such a case, the stability of the vessel is greatly diminished." and “Part of the investigation will, therefore, look into the keel. It is important to note that, even if found partially up, this could result from the impact with the bottom of the sea as the vessel sank, so early external observations may not be sufficient to draw conclusions.”

Also the Telegraph in an earlier article  “If it turns out that this keel was retractable, and that was its condition during this accident, then that would change your stability condition a great deal and would probably bring the pendulum effect of the mast into play.

“It doesn’t change what should be standard responses to bad weather at anchor, such as tracking forecasts, keeping a good visual look out and then when it happens, checking the upper deck for watertight integrity/security, starting your engine, taking the weight off the anchor and so on. It just makes them even more important.”

The ship "Sir Robert Baden Powell" - also a sailing vessel - was nearby and (quote from Mail)

"The Sir Robert BP, a Dutch sailing ship which had been anchored close to the Bayesian, rescued the fifteen survivors.

Its captain, Karsten Borner, said his own vessel was battered by very strong gusts in the early hours of the morning, but that he managed to stabilise it while anchored by using the engine.

The crew later noticed the Bayesian nearby and manoeuvred to avoid hitting it.

'We managed to keep the ship in position, and after the storm was over, we noticed that the ship behind us was gone."

[old man]

6 hours ago, oowee said:

My money would be on a design failure. I appreciate that this is a custom design and build but the construction quality of yachts seems to be mostly still in the dark ages.

Pretty much any car you buy today is fit for purpose. Boat design and building has not made the same leaps forward. Sure there are great advances in the layup of materials and the strength of hulls etc but the rest seems to be pretty much made up on the hoof. The boat designers seem to be more concerned with aesthetics than operation and maintenance 

Yep, floating gin palaces?