Article 50 ... Good news?

[Rewulf]

But 40% of our business is with the EU. As for farmers some subsidises were paid to farmers , but the amount was dwalfed by the money pumped into farming by the EU via CAP , ES and HLS. True outside of Europe countries are not members of the EU , but countries like the USA have their own trading groups which is what I said in my last post..

 

Do you even know what youre talking about ?

Pumped in ! Its our money !

If farmers were allowed to do what they wanted, without the EU telling them what they can and cant do, they probably wouldnt need so much CAP.

You do realise that the EUs meddling with our food supply chain, has made us rely heavily on imported food, not a good place to be really is it ?

[12gauge82]

 

Do you even know what youre talking about ?

Pumped in ! Its our money !

If farmers were allowed to do what they wanted, without the EU telling them what they can and cant do, they probably wouldnt need so much CAP.

You do realise that the EUs meddling with our food supply chain, has made us rely heavily on imported food, not a good place to be really is it ?

Spot on

[Vince Green]

 

You do realise that the EUs meddling with our food supply chain, has made us rely heavily on imported food, not a good place to be really is it ?

Absolutely true!

[Remimax]

don't know why the EU think they're in the driving seat,its like divorcing the wife then having to asking her permission before you go on any dates.

if we don't sort a deal just tell em to **** off, what they gonna do fine us.

if people want to trade they will trade no amount of piggy's in the trough is going to stop that.

don't the french just ignore anything they don't agree with ?.

sick of listing to how complicated it all is ,yes there are things to sort out but if your going to roll over and take it up the rusty rivet hole they are going to take the ****.

Its high time this country grew a pair.

Edited April 4, 2017 by Remimax

[wandringstar]

Payments to the EU should have stopped on 24th june, they dident, if they haven't stopped now then it is worse than a shambles.

 

Just stop the payment, we are gone, they are unelected anyway.

Edited April 4, 2017 by wandringstar

[SNS]

The UK sells 44% of its exported goods to the EU....and the UK buys 53% of its imports goods from the EU!........and yes, the EU put money into U.K. Farming, by way of grants and susidies, but it was the UK's own money!........and the EU kept the €7.1 billion surplus out of money the U.K. Paid to the EU in 2016......

Out of interest where are those numbers from ? The Sunday Times had some charts (from 2015 numbers from the ONS) that are quite different - 47% of our exports going to the EU but only 7% of exports of the EU coming to us

 

Though when you look at it in terms of absolute values we sell a bit over 200 billion to them and they sell almost 300 billion to us.

 

Conclusion appears to be selling to them is more important than them selling to us given we are 7% of their market and they are 47% of ours.

[panoma1]

Out of interest where are those numbers from ? The Sunday Times had some charts (from 2015 numbers from the ONS) that are quite different - 47% of our exports going to the EU but only 7% of exports of the EU coming to us

Though when you look at it in terms of absolute values we sell a bit over 200 billion to them and they sell almost 300 billion to us.

Conclusion appears to be selling to them is more important than them selling to us given we are 7% of their market and they are 47% of ours.

Well just pick a source off the Internet or from any other media outlet, and you either believe the statistics they quote.......or you don't........because you and I have no way of really knowing the truth!...........why should one believe one source over another? They are all controlled by vested interests!

 

In all honesty, I don't believe the source of your quoted numbers any more than I believe mine!....

[AVB]

Well just pick a source off the Internet or from any other media outlet, and you either believe the statistics they quote.......or you don't........because you and I have no way of really knowing the truth!...........why should one believe one source over another? They are all controlled by vested interests!

 

In all honesty, I don't believe the source of your quoted numbers any more than I believe mine!....

 

Both of you are probably right. The EU export market is massive so 7% of that is the same in value as 53% of our imports. The UK import market obviously being a lot smaller than the combined exports of the EU. for Example if the EU export market was £1bn and they exported 7% to us then it would be £70mln. If the UK import market was £100mln and of that 70% came from the EU then that would equal £70mln. The same value but vastly different percentages.

[Rewulf]

 

Both of you are probably right. The EU export market is massive so 7% of that is the same in value as 53% of our imports. The UK import market obviously being a lot smaller than the combined exports of the EU. for Example if the EU export market was £1bn and they exported 7% to us then it would be £70mln. If the UK import market was £100mln and of that 70% came from the EU then that would equal £70mln. The same value but vastly different percentages.

 

Some people have this strange idea that the EU sets up, and administers trade between EU based companies.

It does not, it sets tariffs on trade, taxes and duty.

Trade is, was,and will be set up between companies.

If a British company wants to sell ball bearings to Spain, or vice versa, they talk to each other, set price and volume, take into consideration any taxes and transportation costs, and then the companies involved can decide if the 'deal' is viable for each of them.

This is how trade has been done for thousands of years, and is NOT ROCKET SCIENCE!

 

The EU set itself up as 'Common market' a free trade area, that was designed to make the tariff and duty side less complicated between member nations, a good idea.

It slowly morphed itself into what can only be described as an unelected governorship, meddling in banking, farming,defence and the politics of member nations.

I say nations, but the EU likes to call them states, as it hopes thats all they will be one day.

If I am trying to teach some of you how to suck eggs, thats because some people still dont seem to get it.

 

It doesnt matter if we sell 7% or 70% to the EU or vice versa, whatever trade we have now will likely continue as before, prices may need to be altered to accommodate new tariffs, but that works both ways.

They or us might shop somewhere else for goods and services,but that might have happened anyway, if we had stayed.

The difference will be, WE can choose what we do, for OUR interests, the rest of the bloc cannot.

This opens up a literal world of possibilities.

[Vince Green]

The way I see it we are going and that's it. Its done, anybody who thinks we are going to leave with any sort of golden goodbye from the EU is deluded. That was never going to be a possibility.

 

Where did the likes of Clegg & Co get the idea it was ever going to be any different? We need a clean break, otherwise its like getting in a lifeboat but insisting it remains tied firmly to the sinking ship.

Edited April 5, 2017 by Vince Green

[Danger-Mouse]

Nige is still giving them some stick.

 

[wandringstar]

I suppose you share in the assets and the liabilities if you are a paid up member. We are certainly paid up members. How do you work it all out though? That's the question.

[krugerandsmith]

Nige is still giving them some stick.

 

 

Good on you Nige. ...... Will the BBC show it in its entirety on tonight's news?

[Remimax]

Good on you Nige. ...... Will the BBC show it in its entirety on tonight's news?

i luv the bit were he gets pulled up for comparing the EU to the maffia so then withdraws his comment and uses the term gangsters instead .

[lister22]

The green nutters say we must keep to climate rules after we leave

We should go to WTO and give them a bill for our share of the eu assets

Edited April 5, 2017 by lister22

[old man]

The best thing to come out this ,is that we will get our proper light bulbs back . Talk about dim as a Toc h lamp .

 

 

 

Harnser

Maybe not, what will the power source be?

Wind?

Solar?

 

Someone once said and Iv'e said it twice recently.

I can make statistics prove everything except the truth?

[12gauge82]

The green nutters say we must keep to climate rules after we leave

We should go to WTO and give them a bill for our share of the eu assets

Agreed, I really don't know who they think they are. Unless they are getting a personal benefit (which would be at the expense of everyone else) from EU membership I don't understand why anyone thinks being in the EU is a good thing, all I can think is they must be very meek and afraid of the EUs wrath if we dare not do as they choose.

[JRDS]

Well Theressa is starting to show her true colours, free movement for another 5 years *** plus the 9 months you ****** about triggering A50. Why has she not given a cut off date for eligibilty to reside here, should have been June 23rd 2016. We are going to end up with a watered down farce unless we get a viable anti EU opposition party by 2020 because she has no intention of a true departure from the corrupt scum.

Edited April 5, 2017 by JRDS

[Vince Green]

Well Theressa is starting to show her true colours, free movement for another 5 years *** plus the 9 months you ****** about triggering A50. Why has she not given a cut off date for eligibilty to reside here, should have been June 23rd 2016. We are going to end up with a watered down farce unless we get a viable anti EU opposition party by 2020 because she has nio intention of a true departure from the corrupt scum.

She is having to negotiate against a load of posturing stuffed shirts in the EU who want to give us a hiding, she hasn't said anything definite and she won't, all she is doing is baiting to draw some response from them so the game can begin. Thrust and parry

[JRDS]

Not at all why on earth would she make a statement like that on the biggest single issue of Brexit before negotiations have even begun, crazy and just proves she is a staunch Europhile no doubt. We should walk now on WTO rules there is not a cat in hells chance on an agreement being reached and agreed by all 27 EU countries with their own agendas unless massively in their favour. She obviously thinks now she has gone through the charade of triggering A50 at the last minute that she can just drag us through many years of endlessley extended negotiations leading on well past her time ultimatley to end up where we started. Wonder what she told Nissan?

Edited April 5, 2017 by JRDS

[Gordon R]

Good for Nigel. Great speech.

[Vince Green]

This is very interesting, it takes a while to get the hang of the argument but when you do it makes perfect sense

 

[Gordon R]

Nick Clegg would have done well to decline to appear. He was totally out of his depth.

[Danger-Mouse]

This is very interesting, it takes a while to get the hang of the argument but when you do it makes perfect sense

 

 

Good video . . . fairly sure I posted it pre-referendum, certainly I've watched it before.

 

Again we go back to the fact that the majority of economists were following the same model and therefore unsurprisingly came up with the same negative results following our exit of the EU. Minford and co clearly looked at other options and saw an opportunity for the consumer to benefit from Brexit. Whether our government will take the same view remains to be seen.

[Smokersmith]

Looks like they got at least 1 bit right ...

 

Working for a global business, we have to keep an eye on how Brexit will develop. This was a report I got this morning from Deutchebank ......


Brexit is the most important political event for the UK since World War II. It will shape the UK economy for generations. In this special report, we provide a comprehensive guide for investors for the months and years ahead.

After Article 50 is triggered, sequencing is the key that opens all doors to Brexit. There is no time to negotiate a comprehensive deal in two years and the UK will have to abandon this strategy. The government will need to focus its negotiating power on a transitional arrangement. The UK must prevent a sudden exit from the customs union in March 2019 or risk a huge disruption to existing business models.

Politics is the main risk. The UK will have to accept compromises on the budget, sovereignty and freedom of movement for a transitional deal. The political difficulties only look resolvable with an early UK general election. Politics will be equally problematic for the EU27. With populism increasingly felt across the continent, the EU must take account of the threat a successful Brexit would present of the European project. Our base case is that the UK will eventually compromise, but this will depend on a weakening economy, market pressure and a potential early general election.

The UKs ability to conduct third-country free trade deals is at best a red-herring and at worst a waste of time and energy. The UKs competitive advantage is overwhelmingly concentrated in services where non-tariff barriers are a bigger constraint to trade. The UK would be alone in Europe in not pursuing some kind of trade deal with the EU, the worlds largest market. We do not see the advantages of third-country trade deals as even partially offsetting the loss of access to the Single Market.

Hard Brexit is avoidable, but the inherent difficulties of negotiations will mean the market fully prices a hard Brexit outcome (no transitional agreement and WTO rules) at some stage in the next two years. This is why we remain structurally bearish on the pound.