ANOTHER BETRAYAL

[Mungler]

There was an interview on LBC with the author Nassim Taleb a week or so ago and the gist was that the self professed Brexit experts (politicians and economists) were all Shooting in the dark about the complete unknown and everyone was making it all up - no one knows what’s going to happen.

He went on - nearly all politicians and economic experts have no real world experience, training or ‘success’ and highlighted that politicians who we view as a success or a failure are only so because other politicians and the media tell us i.e there is no real empirical or scientific way to measure them.

It boils down to most politicians are good speakers, spinners and manipulators and that’s pretty much it. Economic experts will have academic qualifications and their status is granted to them by their peers who confirm their status (much like politicians).

It was quite thought provoking peeling back why someone is perceived to be an ‘expert’.

Broadly, none of these lot you would leave in charge to run a bath.

My own view - they’re all idiots, you just have to pick a side that you consider to have the greater collective IQ and hope they can make the best of it. Alternatively pick the lot that you think are the luckiest (to quote Napoleon).

[Retsdon]

7 hours ago, matone said:

Is there a `hard ` border with Austria & Switzerland ?

No there isn't. But both Switzerland and Austria are pretty much de facto members of the EU. 

"From the perspective of the EU, the treaties largely contain the same content as the EEA treaties, making Switzerland a virtual member of the EEA. Most EU law applies universally throughout the EU, the EEA and Switzerland, providing most of the conditions of the free movement of people, goods, services and capital that apply to full member states. Switzerland pays into the EU budget and extended the bilateral treaties to the new EU member states, just like full members did, although each extension requires the approval of Swiss voters in a referendum.

In a referendum on 5 June 2005, Swiss voters agreed, by a 55% majority, to join the Schengen Area. This came into effect on 12 December 2008.^[7]

In 2009, the Swiss voted to extend the free movement of people to Bulgaria and Romania by 59.6% in favour to 40.4% against" ( From Wiki)

I don't think the leave voters had a Swiss - EU relationship in mind when they cast thrir votes. Might as well just have stayed in and at least had voting powers and the means to influence.

[matone]

No,I agree but why have the EU been so accommodating of Austria & Switzerland as non- members ?

[JohnfromUK]

29 minutes ago, matone said:

No,I agree but why have the EU been so accommodating of Austria & Switzerland as non- members ?

They are already outside.

They didn't want to loose us; we are a major financial contributor and were seen as a soft touch for funds and as such we laid golden eggs.  They thought David Cameron would get a 'remain' vote, so gave him no real concessions in his renegotiation just pre referendum, preferring to rely on the 'Osborn scare tactics'.

They were badly rattled when the leave side won - it leaves a big gap in their financial plans.  If others, especially the Dutch (who are also considerable net contributors) follow and leave, there is a big danger the whole house of cards comes crashing down.  They MUST make it look like we are loosing badly by leaving, and are heavily 'punished' for not towing the European line and supporting the 'ever closer integration' aspirations of the (unelected) European Commission.

Actually, they are doing it quite successfully; they seem to have secured a HUGE divorce payment from us to (at least in part) fill the financial hole, ans have also managed to go behind the elected UK government - talking directly to those who wish to make the government fall (i.e. Corbyn and crew) and trying to engineer the fall of our elected government.

If Corbyn gets in, there is not a hope in hell he will get his 'modified single market'.  No 'pick and choose', or 'cake and eat it' has always been an EU red line - you take it all, open borders, EU courts jurisdiction, loss of some areas of sovereignty, or you get no single market.

As I said earlier in this thread, I did vote remain, but the EUs stance of punishing us and taking without giving in negotiations means I would now firmly vote leave.  I now see them for what they are - and want no part of it.

Edited February 27, 2018 by JohnfromUK

[Vince Green]

There never was a real border between the north and south of Ireland before we joined the EU. A token presence but that was more to intercept terrorists at army checkpoints. They never checked import papers or collected duties.

The border issue now is an artificially generated sticking point to screw up the negotiations by Junker and his unelected band. No matter what we propose they wont agree to because that was the plan before they started. A cheap trick from low grade statesmen who know that, actually. they have no mandate from the EU agree to anything. Their job is to block.

[JohnfromUK]

2 minutes ago, Vince Green said:

Their job is to block.

It is, and at long last they have found something they are quite good at!

[Retsdon]

Peter North sticks it to Corbyn... http://www.eureferendum.com/

[henry d]

8 hours ago, Mungler said:

There was an interview on LBC with the author Nassim Taleb a week or so ago and the gist was that the self professed Brexit experts (politicians and economists) were all Shooting in the dark about the complete unknown and everyone was making it all up - no one knows what’s going to happen.

He went on - nearly all politicians and economic experts have no real world experience, training or ‘success’ and highlighted that politicians who we view as a success or a failure are only so because other politicians and the media tell us i.e there is no real empirical or scientific way to measure them.

It boils down to most politicians are good speakers, spinners and manipulators and that’s pretty much it. Economic experts will have academic qualifications and their status is granted to them by their peers who confirm their status (much like politicians).

It was quite thought provoking peeling back why someone is perceived to be an ‘expert’.

Broadly, none of these lot you would leave in charge to run a bath.

My own view - they’re all idiots, you just have to pick a side that you consider to have the greater collective IQ and hope they can make the best of it. Alternatively pick the lot that you think are the luckiest (to quote Napoleon).

What is also enlightening is that the majority of people have no idea that these people are not "experts" in their given fields.

To quote no one in particular; "Expert" n. ɛkspəːt 1 - Comes from the old english, "ex" meaning has been and "spert" meaning a drip under pressure

[Mungler]

The Peter North article is case in point - Corbyn knows next to nothing about car manufacturing but here he has presented himself as someone in the know and speaking passionately about the topic.

The only qualification most politicians have is being good at talking and arguing (which is probably why so many are ex-lawyers), but that doesn’t mean they know any better or best.

And following on, the ‘experts’ they may refer to or who they ask to advise them, well the badge ‘expert’ is normally self awarded or peer awarded (and the label on the tin may not be a true reflection of the actual contents).

Edited February 27, 2018 by Mungler
Tidy up

[JohnfromUK]

4 minutes ago, Mungler said:

which is probably why so many are ex-lawyers

In many cases they may be ex-lawyers because they weren't very good at what they did.

Corbyn makes up the facts to suit the message he is trying to deliver.  Just like his 'promise' to sort out University fees.  Many successful politicians are good at this and good at ducking the resulting challenges.

Whilst true that most cars (including Minis) have parts made in several countries, there is no reason at all why this can't continue.  I have no doubt that some of the Japanese manufacturers in the UK source some parts from Japan and other worldwide plants, and send UK made parts to plants overseas.  It is what major companies operating worldwide do.  BMW has committed to further investment in it's UK plants.

But think it through; Oxford makes about 175,000 minis a year. The idea that anything like this number of 'half completed' Minis go backwards and forwards is ludicrous.  'Parts' that can be crated and loaded densely on transport (road, rail) are easily moved.  You can get a lot on engines/cylinder heads/wheels in a small space.  Complete or semi complete cars/bodyshells are another issue.  They are bulky and easily damaged, so generally expensive and difficult to move about.  Most manufacturers try to do final assembly in one plant with the bodyshell because they are expensive to move around.

[Vince Green]

4 minutes ago, Mungler said:

The Peter North article is case in point - Corbyn knows next to nothing about car manufacturing but here he has presented himself as an expert and speaking passionately about the topic.

The only qualification most politicians have is being good at talking and arguing (which is probably why so many are ex-lawyers), but that doesn’t mean they know any better or best. And following on, the ‘experts’ they may refer to or who they ask to advise them, well the badge ‘expert’ is normally self awarded or peer awarded (and the label on the tin may not be a true reflection of the actual contents).

I said in a previous post, Corbyn is extremely good at telling you what everybody else is doing wrong. He knocks down everybody else's sandcastles but doesn't build any himself

[henry d]

6 minutes ago, Vince Green said:

I said in a previous post, Corbyn is extremely good at telling you what everybody else is doing wrong. He knocks down everybody else's sandcastles but doesn't build any himself

Much like the PW massive really

 

[JohnfromUK]

1 minute ago, henry d said:

Much like the PW massive really

 

Except that PW massive doesn't get (handsomely) paid with full expenses

Edited February 27, 2018 by JohnfromUK

[Gordon R]

I don't see many owning up to bedding Diane Abbott either.

[matone]

1 hour ago, JohnfromUK said:

They are already outside.

They didn't want to loose us; we are a major financial contributor and were seen as a soft touch for funds and as such we laid golden eggs.  They thought David Cameron would get a 'remain' vote, so gave him no real concessions in his renegotiation just pre referendum, preferring to rely on the 'Osborn scare tactics'.

They were badly rattled when the leave side won - it leaves a big gap in their financial plans.  If others, especially the Dutch (who are also considerable net contributors) follow and leave, there is a big danger the whole house of cards comes crashing down.  They MUST make it look like we are loosing badly by leaving, and are heavily 'punished' for not towing the European line and supporting the 'ever closer integration' aspirations of the (unelected) European Commission.

Actually, they are doing it quite successfully; they seem to have secured a HUGE divorce payment from us to (at least in part) fill the financial hole, ans have also managed to go behind the elected UK government - talking directly to those who wish to make the government fall (i.e. Corbyn and crew) and trying to engineer the fall of our elected government.

If Corbyn gets in, there is not a hope in hell he will get his 'modified single market'.  No 'pick and choose', or 'cake and eat it' has always been an EU red line - you take it all, open borders, EU courts jurisdiction, loss of some areas of sovereignty, or you get no single market.

As I said earlier in this thread, I did vote remain, but the EUs stance of punishing us and taking without giving in negotiations means I would now firmly vote leave.  I now see them for what they are - and want no part of it.

Totally agree,if anyone did want to remain,what has occurred since the vote should have changed their view.Its shown the Eurocrats for what they are and we need to rid ourselves of those evil people.

[inthedark]

12 hours ago, Vince Green said:

 the EU has behaved like a pay day loan company

Well said that man.

I really cant see what all the fuss is about, just say goodbye, cancel the standing order and walk away. The underlying issues will level out very quickly, e.g. Jaguar/Landrover are so far in bed with BMW that both companies would fail if they didn't trade, so if the EU impose tarifs we should just match match them and thus make more money due to the trade deficit. It doesn't feel like Ireland wants a hard border, they didn't have one before, so why bother? If the Eire want to build a Trump like wall we shouldn't be the Mexicans. And while we're at it, I'd recommend pouring a large amount of concrete down the channel tunnel.         (not that I'm anti EU of course )

[scouser]

Uk, is 6th or 7th economy in the world, it would seem like they need us more than we need them, I’d like to see the government grow some b—ls , instead of letting the EU dictate everything,  the vote was to leave, so leave it must be 

[Mice!]

2 hours ago, JohnfromUK said:

Except that PW massive doesn't get (handsomely) paid with full expenses

And the massive pension.

[yod dropper]

Something I found quite amusing was watching Nigel Farage and Lisa Nandy (Labour MP) on the Daily Politics.  Mr Corbyn said that Labour would negotiate international trade deals alongside the EU.  Mr F said that this could never happen as they are done by the EU Commission (not even governments).  She claimed it isn't.  You might as well have argued against somebody who believes that London is the capital of Lybia.  The long and the short of it is that nobody still really knows what the Labour position is and they seem to have got away with it.  Very clever.  Gaining power is everything, never mind the referendum, split the opposition, force an election.

[JohnfromUK]

9 minutes ago, yod dropper said:

Mr F said that this could never happen as they are done by the EU Commission (not even governments).

That is quite correct.

I am completely dumbfounded by how people believe what Corbyn and Co say.  He has said so many things that are plainly not true - and gets away with people praising him.  Next they will be believing Diane Abbott's arithmetic.  Mind you - most of the young I seem to come across have poorer arithmetic than Ms Abbott unless they have a calculators in their hand.

Can't do anything in their heads.

[Vince Green]

13 minutes ago, scouser said:

Uk, is 6th or 7th economy in the world, it would seem like they need us more than we need them, I’d like to see the government grow some b—ls , instead of letting the EU dictate everything,  the vote was to leave, so leave it must be 

We are actually fifth but more significantly the second biggest in the EU. Without us they are right up the brown creek and they are sooooo aware of that fact but won't admit it because they would lose face. That's what a lot of this rubbish is about, the European political mindset never allows for anything that could be interpreted as weakness or compromise. They have to be the hard man.

[TriBsa]

Tomorrow is the day that sees the publication by the European Commission of it's draft withdrawl agreement. So we should see how punative and draconian their terms are.

Edited February 27, 2018 by TriBsa

[Retsdon]

1 hour ago, TriBsa said:

Tomorrow is the day that sees the publication by the European Commission of it's draft withdrawl agreement. So we should see how punative and draconian their terms are.

Not draconian or punitive, just the EU's basic position. But it should never have come to this.It's been what, almost 2 years since the Brexit vote, and May's government has proven so dismally incompetent that it hasn't even been able to say what it wants, let alone how its wants might be met. In the meantime the EU has been waiting for concrete proposals from the UK. And waiting and waiting..Of course it should not be up to the EU to propose an exit strategy, but seeing as May and Co are seemingly incapable of articilating one for themselves, what is the EU supposed to do? Wait another 2 years? Four years? Until  after Mini- shipper Corbyn gets invited to Buck house? 

No, the problem lies fairly and squarely with the startlingly amateurish politicians of all hues on  the British side of the Channel. Their sheer  parochial insularity and simple igmorance has been atounding. So now the EU, if only to vet things moving, is going to table its own proposals.  Certainly  we won't like them. But it's not ths fault of Brussels that it has been been handed the initiative lock stock and barrel. 

Edited February 27, 2018 by Retsdon

[stagboy]

The fault lies with the EU, who are trying to bully us. So let's leave without a deal. That's a concrete proposal.

The fact that government in Germany is in tatters because of Merkel's ill-judged open door policy, that Austria and Hungary are imposing border controls within the EU, that Sweden is rethinking its policies after a surge in crime, that anti-EU parties are making gains in the Italian polls, and that the sensible Swiss still have their own currency and won't allow their political elite to accede to EU membership is the EU's fault. And now the richer EU states are baulking at the prospect of having to pay more to make up for the hole in the EU finances when we leave.

Indeed, its the EU's fault that the UK referendum went the way it did; they didn't give Cameron anything to take back to the electorate. 

 

Edited February 27, 2018 by stagboy
typo

[JohnfromUK]

Just now, stagboy said:

Indeed, its the EU's fault that the UK referendum went the way it did; they didn't give Cameron anything to take back to the electorate. 

That is certainly true; they were smug and complacent - and thought they could bully us.

 

17 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

No, the problem lies fairly and squarely with the startlingly amateurish politicians of all hues on  the British side of the Channel.

I cannot defend our politicians - if they had put as much effort into the leave proposals post referendum as they did into scare tactics pre referendum, we would be in a better place.  I have come to expect indecisiveness and vacuity from our politicians - and I have not been disappointed.