Brexit - merged threads

[Raja Clavata]

10 hours ago, DoolinDalton said:

An excellent read...but will the usual suspects 'rubbish' this also?

It does read well and to it's credit most of the figures cross checked so on the face of it credible.

However it is clearly authored by an anti-EU proponent and if you peel back the layers a bit it reveals the usual biases that each side project; for example the Congdon report cited here has the foreword written by somebody who later went on to become leader of UKIP and who himself was the author of a previous version of the very same report. Further Congdon cites clippings from the Daily Mail as a significant source of his data for the report...

I am choosing my language carefully here and certainly not rubbishing it but let's accept it for what it really is...

[Rewulf]

3 hours ago, Retsdon said:

Europe might be in decline, but that's largely down to an aging population and saturated personal economic needs. If you want to goose GDP by importing millions upon millions of hungry migrants, fair enough. But I don't really think that's what most people in the country, especially those who voted Brexit, actually want

Europe HAS been importing millions of migrants for years, and GDP has barely moved. 

And its all very well saying that GDP isn't a good indicator, but are these non EU  countries prospering? And are we not? 

All I'm saying, is being part of this great big fancy trade bloc, run by idiots isn't all you crack it up to be, it's in fact detrimental. 

And that's as plain as day for anyone to see. 

9 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

It does read well and to it's credit most of the figures cross checked so on the face of it credible

 

9 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

I am choosing my language carefully here and certainly not rubbishing it but let's accept it for what it really is

Err.. So it's right, but it's wrong because it was written by the wrong people. 

Basically you don't LIKE what it says, but you don't dispute it? 

[Raja Clavata]

Just now, Rewulf said:

Err.. So it's right, but it's wrong because it was written by the wrong people. 

Basically you don't LIKE what it says, but you don't dispute it? 

Not quite, and I can see what you are trying to do here, but seriously...

Some of the figures are credible but a lot of the stated "facts" are disputable and it throws in language which is inappropriate which reveals it for what it is.

If you want to believe it that's fine, if it reinforces your beliefs then it's done it's job but it's not impartial and it isn't going to make people with opposing views change their mind.

But again, this is all water under the bridge and none of this is relevant to what is going to happen in the next few weeks.

[Rewulf]

15 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

But again, this is all water under the bridge and none of this is relevant to what is going to happen in the next few weeks.

The piece is irrelevant now because it was written before the referendum! 

What it does demonstrate, is what you are trying to deal with, to negotiate with, and the hopelessness therein. 

If you believe in any way shape or form, that staying in is a better option, then you will be sorely mistaken. 

The EU is on borrowed time, whether we leave or stay. 

Edited March 5, 2019 by Rewulf

[TIGHTCHOKE]

52 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

It does read well and to it's credit most of the figures cross checked so on the face of it credible.

However it is clearly authored by an anti-EU proponent and if you peel back the layers a bit it reveals the usual biases that each side project; for example the Congdon report cited here has the foreword written by somebody who later went on to become leader of UKIP and who himself was the author of a previous version of the very same report. Further Congdon cites clippings from the Daily Mail as a significant source of his data for the report...

I am choosing my language carefully here and certainly not rubbishing it but let's accept it for what it really is...

It was written in various versions before the Referendum, but its content holds true and is getting very close to being proven.

 

Time for the House of Cards/White Elephant to fall, lets get out without a penalty and start again.

[PhilR]

Here's another article from Betsy Mackay.

I'm re-sharing this from Betsy MacKay, who has researched the inner workings of the EU for her Masters Degree. First shared before the referendum. This is a superb piece about the EU, which everyone should read.
" I, probably like most of my generation, knew very little about the EU. I had done a Masters degree in the 70s; brought up my family, and by the early 2000s was ready to return to University. I was privileged to return to University to complete a Second Masters Degree; this time in European Policy, European Law and European Economic Analysis.
Words cannot describe the horror I felt as I delved into the truth of the EU. Sends shivers down my spine to this day, remembering the horror of the realisation that we had been hoodwinked into the EU by deceitful, disingenuous, intentionally devious means. The populace of the UK was never intended to find out the truth behind the EU, until they reckoned it was too late.
Truth is it almost....almost...almost is too late.
We already are, in the UK, all but a federal state in the United States of Europe. You never quite realised that, did you? Why? Because they very deliberately decided not to tell you. They deliberately created a political elite who knew full well that power was being ceded, systematically, Treaty by Treaty, to the EU. But who knew? They did!
But were we the UK populace ever informed? Absolutely not! Why? They made mega millions from EU scammery & we the minions were shafted day, daily, monthly, yearly & forever.
Where did your pensions go? Where did your schools, your NHS, your housing, your social services go? Well, £55 million per day, every day, every week, every month, every year..... Guess what? That is why UK is bankrupted for generations to come, with a £1.5 trillion pound debt.
I wish I could enlighten the populace of the UK to the real truth about the EU. I spent a year studying the EU in depth, visiting both the EU Parliament and EU Commission in Brussels. Every word I heard in lectures, hundreds of hours of lectures, every word I researched for my thesis and every thing I saw in Brussels, lead me to the inescapable conclusion that the EU is an utterly corrupt, profligate, political monstrosity which has destroyed British jobs and bankrupted the UK for generations to come.
The EU operates on lobbying, which is the technical term for bribery and corruption. Whatever Cameron says, EU law has supremacy over our UK law unless there is Treaty change. He may say so but the truth is that 27 other countries will never agree, this side of eternity, to change the Treaties.
So …..what is the connection between the EU, the Bilderberg Group and the almost completed TTIP? (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership)
The Bilderberg Group meet in secret each year and they are a group of phenomenally wealthy men and women from the worlds of big business, banking and politics, coming from across Europe and the US.
The TTIP represents an integral component of Bilderberg’s attempt to rescue the New World Order by creating a “world company,” initially a free trade area, which would connect the United States with Europe.
Just as the European Union started as a mere free trade area and was eventually transformed into a political federation which controls upwards of 50 per cent of its member states’ laws and regulations with total contempt for national sovereignty and democracy, TTIP is designed to accomplish the same goal, only on a bigger scale.
The treaty is likely to advantage the corporations of both the US and the EU, while disadvantaging their people. It presents a danger to democracy and public protection throughout the trading area.
The Bilderberg Group are focussing on how to derail a global political awakening that threatens to hinder Bilderberg’s long standing agenda to centralize power into a one world political federation, a goal set to be advanced with the passage of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP),
Bilderberg globalists are aghast and there is panic in the ranks that their planned EU superstate is being eroded as a result of a populist resistance all around Europe, mainly centred around animosity towards uncontrolled immigration policies.
And just who might we expect to find at such a secret gathering? Angela Merkel, Herman Van Rompuy (ex President of EU Council), Jean Claude Juncker, (Present President of the EU Commission), Martin Schultz,( Present President of EU Parliament), David Cameron, George Osbourne, Tony Blair, Ed Balls, Rona Fairhead, (Chair of the BBC Trust), Michael O’Leary of RyanAir, Stuart Rose (ex M & S, and BSE Chairman), Bill Clinton, Barak Obama………..…and many more.
What do they all have in common? They are all trying to persuade you to stay in the EU. Why? Because it is in their warped self interest to do so! Is any of this in your interests? Absolutely not! Their modus operandi is that truth becomes lies and lies become truth. Sound familiar?
No possible option available, other than to get Out of EU ASAP."
This is what your government has been up to for 40 years. Creating wealth and power for them at the expense of the 'slavery' and poverty they have created for us. Theresa May is still doing it by keeping us in deliberately, when we do not need to be.

[Raja Clavata]

7 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

What it does demonstrate, is what you are trying to deal with, to negotiate with, and the hopelessness therein. 

If you believe in any way shape or form, that staying in is a better option, then you will be sorely mistaken. 

The EU is on borrowed time, whether we leave or stay. 

Agreed and we knew it was hopeless before the referendum was held which was part, and only part, of the thought process that led myself, and I suspect many others, to vote remain.

Nobody knows in real terms what is the better option, only one scenario is going to play out and we'll have no real way of knowing if it's better or worse than what would have happened if we took an alternative path. But I believe a no deal scenario could be more damaging to the UK than staying in and letting (assisting) the EU fall apart around us but as I've said before the TM deal looks like the worst of all three of these potential scenarios. If we are in with a say then I believe our currency and Schengen situation protects us much more than it does the other countries.

I agree it's on borrowed time.

[Scully]

57 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

 

I am choosing my language carefully here and certainly not rubbishing it but let's accept it for what it really is...

But what is it....a work of fiction? Even if a work is biased ( no matter from which side of the argument it comes ) unless it's a work of fiction then it's relevant and can't be easily dismissed. 

 

[Gordon R]

Scully and Tightchoke - it makes very interesting reading. Whilst it hasn't been openly ridiculed, it has had doubt cast upon it for no logical reason, other than it was written by someone who doesn't blindly worship the EU.

I don't see any rebuttal, other than the odd patronising phrase.

[Raja Clavata]

1 minute ago, Scully said:

But what is it....a work of fiction? Even if a work is biased ( no matter from which side of the argument it comes ) unless it's a work of fiction then it's relevant and can't be easily dismissed. 

 

I wouldn't suggest it is a work of fiction, it is a well written and interesting article. I cited that from looking into one aspect of data cited in the piece, it can be seen that the source is a UKIP funded or at least sponsored publication and that publication itself refers to the Daily Mail as a significant source of data. So at least one aspect of the paper is built on very flaky foundations. 

[Scully]

2 minutes ago, Gordon R said:

Scully and Tightchoke - it makes very interesting reading. Whilst it hasn't been openly ridiculed, it has had doubt cast upon it for no logical reason, other than it was written by someone who doesn't blindly worship the EU.

I don't see any rebuttal, other than the odd patronising phrase.

It does indeed make very interesting reading. The only reservations I have are that I find it hard to believe there are those in the upper echelons of government who would willingly go along with this, to knowingly corrupt and indeed thwart the democratic process. I still ( obviously very naively ) can't get my head around this fact, and have to confess that after all the lives lost in the fight against tyranny and dictatorship, they will willingly cede government to an unelected and untouchable commission.  I despise them more than I can say; they re scum, utter utter scum.

[Scully]

10 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

I wouldn't suggest it is a work of fiction, it is a well written and interesting article. I cited that from looking into one aspect of data cited in the piece, it can be seen that the source is a UKIP funded or at least sponsored publication and that publication itself refers to the Daily Mail as a significant source of data. So at least one aspect of the paper is built on very flaky foundations. 

I accept that, but if those claims and allegations aren't false, then it is, like you say, what it is. Each of us has an agenda, and will be biased toward it, just like those in power, which is fine and acceptable. That doesn't necessarily make our claims false; only the fabrication or manipulation of facts and figures in pursuit of that agenda, does that. 

Edited March 5, 2019 by Scully

[TIGHTCHOKE]

24 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

Agreed and we knew it was hopeless before the referendum was held which was part, and only part, of the thought process that led myself, and I suspect many others, to vote remain.

Nobody knows in real terms what is the better option, only one scenario is going to play out and we'll have no real way of knowing if it's better or worse than what would have happened if we took an alternative path. But I believe a no deal scenario could be more damaging to the UK than staying in and letting (assisting) the EU fall apart around us but as I've said before the TM deal looks like the worst of all three of these potential scenarios. If we are in with a say then I believe our currency and Schengen situation protects us much more than it does the other countries.

I agree it's on borrowed time.

But you have openly ridiculed the Happy Bunch of Leavers for our foresight in wanting to escape from the un-elected hierarchy of the EU.

Your "alternative path" is staying as it was, bending over, taking all the **** that came with "membership" of the sainted EU.

[Newbie to this]

Came across this yesterday.

GB-paper-How-the-EU-is-a-drag-Final-04.03.19-1.pdf

I haven't read it all yet, but I'm slowly getting there in dribs and drabs when I get time.

 

[Raja Clavata]

Just now, Scully said:

I accept that, but if those claims and allegations aren't false, then it is, like you say, what it is. Each of us had an agenda, and will be biased toward it, just like those in power, which is fine and acceptable. That doesn't necessarily make our claims false; only the fabrication or manipulation of facts and figures in pursuit of that agenda, does that. 

Agreed, with one caveat: the Congdon report cited indirect cost of EU membership at 11.5% of GDP all of which are additive - I don't know if the contributing %'s are correct but the argument is built purely in gross terms with no net offset of consideration of other factors so it represents something akin to the £350M NHS figure. 

It would be interesting to do the same kind of analysis on a pro-EU paper as I'm sure they are at least equally slanted and based on false underlying data.

[Raja Clavata]

Just now, TIGHTCHOKE said:

But you have openly ridiculed the Happy Bunch of Leavers for our foresight in wanting to escape from the un-elected hierarchy of the EU.

Your "alternative path" is staying as it was, bending over, taking all the **** that came with "membership" of the sainted EU.

A lot of undesirable comments have been made from all sides but we are where we are and we are undeniably all in this together.

My preferred path avoids the TM deal which could well see us getting royally screwed in the process of the demise of the EU with us effectively a vassalage sub-servant state of the EU who use us as their whipping boy as they go through their death throes...

[Retsdon]

1 hour ago, Rewulf said:

Europe HAS been importing millions of migrants for years,

To compensate for a declining birthrate. But the overall population hasn't increased hardly at all. Compare that to America'.

8 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

A lot of undesirable comments have been made from all sides but we are where we are and we are undeniably all in this together.

My preferred path avoids the TM deal which could well see us getting royally screwed in the process of the demise of the EU with us effectively a vassalage sub-servant state of the EU who use us as their whipping boy as they go through their death throes...

The EU isn't going to go through any death throes. Look how Greece stayed in, despite the trauma. Nobody would dispute that the EU has issues, but the notion that it is going to break up is dangerous wishful thinking. European countries understand that there's power and safety in numbers.

[Raja Clavata]

7 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

To compensate for a declining birthrate. But the overall population hasn't increased hardly at all. Compare that to America'.

The EU isn't going to go through any death throes. Look how Greece stayed in, despite the trauma. Nobody would dispute that the EU has issues, but the notion that it is going to break up is dangerous wishful thinking. European countries understand that there's power and safety in numbers.

I'm sure the same was said about the chances of a leave majority in 2016, if recent history has taught us anything it should be that pretty much anything can happen.

I understand your logic and it's sound but there are huge cracks appearing with abundant agendas that would readily assist those cracks widening.

[Mice!]

28 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

The EU isn't going to go through any death throes. Look how Greece stayed in, despite the trauma. Nobody would dispute that the EU has issues, but the notion that it is going to break up is dangerous wishful thinking. European countries understand that there's power and safety in numbers.

But how did Greece survive? The EU broke its own rules with a massive bail out, how did it get in that position to start with? Take out the money that we put in and when say Italy fails who is going to bail them out?

[oowee]

The article from Betsy Mak? is tosh. It takes a few numbers and creates a mythical populist belief based on half truths. It's full of inflammatory language that has no basis in a reasoned argument. It trys to exploit a few populist views and back them up with selective commentary.  I have not got the time to go through it but here are a couple of comments on the first two sections. 

Workers’ rights:

The UK does not depend on the EU for workers rights. Clearly true.

There is no doubt that big businesses in the UK today, and indeed across the EU, have been benefiting from the insecurity and misery caused by ‘Zero hours contracts’ which are contracts of employment which do not specify any number of hours that the employee will be required to work and do not guarantee any work at all. Insecurity and Misery? Where is the evidence of insecurity and misery? There may be some in this position but for many it's the only way to work. Much of the gig economy will by it's nature be based on this type of work. 

There undoubtedly has been a welter of EU legislation covering consumer protection, product safety, enhanced policing, food labeling, bans on growth hormones, trade ties, environmental legislation, price, transparency, work placements, some of it more helpful than others. What???? For whom? What parts? Where are the examples? Legislation that has done much to protect the environment across the EU that governments would not have done on their own. Legislation that has pushed standards far higher as a collective block than could have been achieved alone. Legislation that in turn has protected workers and EU produce from low labour rate economies. 

Free Movement of People:

In May 2015 the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney warned that the current inflow of foreign workers was holding down wages. There is widespread anecdotal evidence that mass immigration is harming those who are on low pay and wage growth is being held back. So that would be rumour and hearsay then. My mates brothers sister said so it must be true. Without an influx of foreign workers what would have happened? Probably more automation less jobs not necessarily higher pay. If wages did rise the associated inflationary pressure may have negated the rise. The great benefit of free movement is that it balances wage rates across the economy. We want workers to move be that within a city, a county a country or a continent. Worker flexibility is key to productivity. Wage growth will without productivity will not improve prosperity. 

 

10 minutes ago, Mice! said:

But how did Greece survive? The EU broke its own rules with a massive bail out, how did it get in that position to start with? Take out the money that we put in and when say Italy fails who is going to bail them out?

Who bailed out the UK? 

[Rewulf]

25 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

I'm sure the same was said about the chances of a leave majority in 2016, if recent history has taught us anything it should be that pretty much anything can happen.

I understand your logic and it's sound but there are huge cracks appearing with abundant agendas that would readily assist those cracks widening.

Now were talking 

42 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

 

The EU isn't going to go through any death throes. Look how Greece stayed in, despite the trauma. Nobody would dispute that the EU has issues, but the notion that it is going to break up is dangerous wishful thinking. European countries understand that there's power and safety in numbers.

Come on Retsdon ! Greece is a basket case, with unemployment at ridiculous levels, its never going to recover unless there are drastic changes, it exists on EU bailouts, those bailouts will eventually collapse the banks or Greece.

France has burned every weekend for 4 months, massive discontent and a failing economy.

Italy has elected an anti establishment, anti EU government, its economy is nearly in recession, and has an EU sponsored migrant problem it is struggling to cope with.

Hungary and Poland ,whilst receiving masses of EU cash , have major issues with Brussels, and will probably get sanctioned in the near future, sanctions these 2 nationalist countries will not accept, potential for leaving the bloc.

The UK is having a very public battle over its Brexit decision, with EU intransigence being seen by all, and viewed as a test bed for further exits by many.

I could go on , but you certainly cannot tell me the EU is in perfect health.

By the very nature of Brexit and its likely conclusions, the EU is further damaged.
Its very existence is dependent on making the UKs exit painful and unsuccessful , a clean break, and prosperity in the future for us , would certainly seal its fate.
However , even if we cancelled Brexit tomorrow , the EU is still in decline, it would take longer, but its cost to us would be far greater, as it dragged us down too.

[Mice!]

17 minutes ago, oowee said:

Who bailed out the UK? 

I was under the impression we borrowed ridiculous amounts to get us out?

[oowee]

In the past we had to be bailed out by the IMF to stop us going bust. 

[Rewulf]

39 minutes ago, oowee said:

The article from Betsy Mak? is tosh. It takes a few numbers and creates a mythical populist belief based on half truths. It's full of inflammatory language that has no basis in a reasoned argument. It trys to exploit a few populist views and back them up with selective commentary.  I have not got the time to go through it but here are a couple of comments on the first two sections. 
Tell it how you feel mate , dont hold back 😆

Workers’ rights:

The UK does not depend on the EU for workers rights. Clearly true.

There is no doubt that big businesses in the UK today, and indeed across the EU, have been benefiting from the insecurity and misery caused by ‘Zero hours contracts’ which are contracts of employment which do not specify any number of hours that the employee will be required to work and do not guarantee any work at all. Insecurity and Misery? Where is the evidence of insecurity and misery? There may be some in this position but for many it's the only way to work. Much of the gig economy will by it's nature be based on this type of work. 

So does the EU protect workers rights or not ?
The answer is quite simple, it protects 'EU' migrant workers rights, the rights to go to a more prosperous country and take low paid jobs, drive down wages, and create a housing shortage that has driven rents up, along with a shortage of cash for the NHS and record classroom sizes.
But its all OK as long as we respect free movement, and workers rights, just as long as theyre not British.
And be damned with your social cohesion, the 4 freedoms are far more important !

Quote

There undoubtedly has been a welter of EU legislation covering consumer protection, product safety, enhanced policing, food labeling, bans on growth hormones, trade ties, environmental legislation, price, transparency, work placements, some of it more helpful than others. What???? For whom? What parts? Where are the examples? Legislation that has done much to protect the environment across the EU that governments would not have done on their own. Legislation that has pushed standards far higher as a collective block than could have been achieved alone. Legislation that in turn has protected workers and EU produce from low labour rate economies. 

How do you know we wouldnt have done it ?
Does the precious EU founding fathers need to hold our hand for fear of stepping from the moral path ?
There are assumptions, and there is bias, but to say we couldnt look after our country or its people without the EU 'helping' us with mountains of red tape and regulations is both ridiculous and insulting.

Free Movement of People:

In May 2015 the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney warned that the current inflow of foreign workers was holding down wages. There is widespread anecdotal evidence that mass immigration is harming those who are on low pay and wage growth is being held back. So that would be rumour and hearsay then. My mates brothers sister said so it must be true. Without an influx of foreign workers what would have happened? Probably more automation less jobs not necessarily higher pay. If wages did rise the associated inflationary pressure may have negated the rise. The great benefit of free movement is that it balances wage rates across the economy. We want workers to move be that within a city, a county a country or a continent. Worker flexibility is key to productivity. Wage growth will without productivity will not improve prosperity. 

 

 

Its funny that you rubbish Carneys words on this, then use him as 'evidence' at times when it suits you.
Is it rumour or heresay ?   It wasnt your mates brothers sister that said it, it was the governor of the BOE BEFORE he signed up to the remain campaign.
But then you say , Without an influx of foreign workers what would have happened? Probably more automation less jobs not necessarily higher pay. If wages did rise the associated inflationary pressure may have negated the rise.
Is that not assumption, rumour or heresay ?

Edited March 5, 2019 by Rewulf

[oowee]

16 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

Now were talking 

Come on Retsdon ! Greece is a basket case, with unemployment at ridiculous levels, its never going to recover unless there are drastic changes, it exists on EU bailouts, those bailouts will eventually collapse the banks or Greece.

France has burned every weekend for 4 months, massive discontent and a failing economy.

Italy has elected an anti establishment, anti EU government, its economy is nearly in recession, and has an EU sponsored migrant problem it is struggling to cope with. What is the EU sponsored migrant problem? Are we talking about refugees? 

Hungary and Poland ,whilst receiving masses of EU cash , have major issues with Brussels, and will probably get sanctioned in the near future, sanctions these 2 nationalist countries will not accept, potential for leaving the bloc. Time will tell. 

The UK is having a very public battle over its Brexit decision, with EU intransigence being seen by all, and viewed as a test bed for further exits by many.

I could go on , but you certainly cannot tell me the EU is in perfect health. Where is? 

By the very nature of Brexit and its likely conclusions, the EU is further damaged. As is the UK.
Its very existence is dependent on making the UKs exit painful and unsuccessful , a clean break, and prosperity in the future for us , would certainly seal its fate.
However , even if we cancelled Brexit tomorrow , the EU is still in decline, it would take longer, but its cost to us would be far greater, as it dragged us down too.

Have you been to Greece? 

Recessions come and go. France faces huge social change that it's population does not want to own up to. The West is living beyond it's means hoping to stave of the inevitable. The EU makes it easier to hold these changes at bay.