Brexit - merged threads

[pinfireman]

2 hours ago, JohnfromUK said:

The system means that many MPs will very probably be safe because there is no 'credible acceptable' alternative.  For example - where I live we will (probably) have 4 or 5 choices as per the 2017 election;

• The current (Tory) MP who is a 'May's deal' supporter - has a considerable majority, but not 100% safe - gets about 60% of the vote
• The runner was the Labour candidate (unusually - as Lib Dems have often been runner up) on about 25%.  Gained a lot of votes from UKIP whose vote collapsed.
• LibDem about 10% of the votes (reflecting the low number of remain supporters in my view)
• We had a UKIP candidate who were badly down (by 10%) on 3%.  Since Nigel Farage leaving UKIP, I cannot see them getting anywhere.  There is no appetite for the likes of Tommy Robinson locally - the taint of EDL lingers.
• We usually have a Green candidate who polls about 3%

I have voted for UKIP (when Farage was in charge) - but only in European elections.

IF there is to be a new 'Leave the EU' party of some description, I cannot see my area (which voted 58% leave) returning an MP with no proven "Party record", especially when the sitting MP is supporting Mrs May's 'Leave' deal and so most people consider a 'leaver'.

I think it is only a (relatively few) constituencies where there will be a real 'rebellion' and those are where the MP has gone contrary to the referendum result.  Remember most people see both Mrs Mays 'deal' supporters and 'no deal' supporters as being 'leavers'

I agree with much of what you have said, but some of the main traitors, like Soubry, Greening, Rudd, Boles, have small majorities. The UKIP vote may have collapsed, but many of them will take their anger out by demolishing the majority of the sitting MP ! It is a dangerous game, as it may well let in Steptoe, and his rag-bag army! A better strategy is for Brexiteers (ex Kippers?) in those constituencies, joinng their local Conservative party association, then voting to de-select the sitting MP as a candidate for the next election, and putting in a Brexiteer instead!  Even where UKIP only had 3 or 4% of the vote, if half of those voters switched, they would demolish the sitting MP. It is the way to go! Steptoe has tightened his grip on the Loony Party, by using these exact tactics!

2 hours ago, TriBsa said:

Or this (May's deal) or stay as the options in a second referendum?

That we are discussing such an obvious sellout of our democratic decision as a better option is testimony to the stark reality of our predicament. Most of us have now woken up to the sheer scale of the moral corruption in Westminster and realised that there is precious little we can do about it in the short term, if at all. Like imigration and the Tory pledge to limit it to tens of thousands, they are blatently ignoring all their election promises safe in the knowledge that our broken two party system will sail sweetly on.  

Not if I can help it! 

1 hour ago, Raja Clavata said:

The backstop has to GO, I agree, but if it's still in place by the time the next meaningful vote takes place how sure are we that ERG won't accept as is rather than face the other alternatives and the TM deal goes through!?

No deal has to stay on the table as a negotiating tool but it was never a real option in the first place - a **** deal was all that was ever really on the table for the leave outcome. All this disgust at parliament and the EU is understandable but when will leavers realise that it was also the architects of Leave with whom they should have at least equal grievance.

The biggest lie of all Brexit was the notion that we were ever going to leave on WTO terms!

and never a pop at Remain?  You,re consistent, I,ll give you that!

51 minutes ago, oowee said:

So TM's deal goes through one way or another she resigns having achieved Brexit. Party splits and we get a GE. Corbyn gets in and we go for customs union and can do away with Irish border.

Or May's deal gets postponed and we delay, we then sign deal and above happens. 

 

 

I agree with Raja the dispute is with the Architect's of leave. 

Of course, Remaoners have clean hands in this, don,t they?  Not !

[pinfireman]

11 minutes ago, old man said:

Hopefully we shall remove a lot of roosting spots at the ballot box.

Hopefully politics will be changed forever. Difficult pill to swallow when betrayed by our own politicians.

Succinct, and to the point! Well said.  And the removing will happen very soon now.................

[tandytommo]

On ‎01‎/‎03‎/‎2019 at 18:50, pinfireman said:

The New Statesman has published an unintentionally hilarious article by the aptly-named Dr Rebecca Grossman, a GP who is trying to hard sell the notion that no deal could lead to “more unplanned pregnancies” or even “individuals resorting to alternative methods of contraception, such as sterilisation.” Has she forgotten that Brexit was about bringing an end to protectionism?

Unfortunately it looks like Dr Grossman hasn’t actually bothered to read the Department of Health’s reports on no deal planning herself, which leave her lurid claims looking rather limp. The Government has already taken measures to open new shipping channels and procure freight capacity to ensure that all medical supplies can still get smoothly in and out of the UK even if there is increased friction at the border. In any case, trusty condoms are built with stamina in mind – they can survive on the shelf for three years, far longer than the six weeks suppliers are anticipating having to last for…

To top it all off, Dr Grossman explains how the UK’s most popular condom, Durex, has its production facilities “entirely in China, India, and Thailand” – all countries which the EU has no free trade agreements with. Another Project Fear prediction which can be safely tossed into the dustbin of history

and me!

EUROZONE SUFFERS WORST MANUFACTURING slump since 2013 !

 

The Eurozone’s economic slide continues with the latest manufacturing index figures showing the steepest contraction in manufacturing since June 2013. February’s PMI figures showed a fall to 49.3 (anything below 50 indicates contraction), the lowest level since June 2013, with new orders at their lowest since April 2013 and export orders at their lowest level in over six years. Germany’s performance was particularly poor on 47.6 – the wurst in 74 months…

The bottom line is that the EU increasingly cannot afford to have no deal. Eurocrats are panicking about legal chaos if the UK’s membership is extended beyond the European Parliament elections, the UK’s seats have already been allocated to other countries so the EU isn’t just braced for lawsuits from the UK, it may also have to face several from the likes of the German Vegetarians Party. The only thing still allowing the EU to stick to its intransigent position is the fact that UK Parliament is doing all their dirty work for them

Source  Guido Fawkes

Doubt the “condom shortage” will effect too many pro brexit voters as most of them probably can’t get it up these days !

[Raja Clavata]

21 hours ago, tandytommo said:

Doubt the “condom shortage” will effect too many pro brexit voters as most of them probably can’t get it up these days !

Post of the week this, lol. But there is something very relevant about the age demographic on Brexit.

[JRDS]

Just now, Raja Clavata said:

Post of the week this, lol. But there is something very relevant about the age demographic on Brexit.

Typical blinkered Patronising Remoaner.

[Raja Clavata]

4 minutes ago, JRDS said:

Typical blinkered Patronising Remoaner.

Is that really the best you can do...

[Gordon R]

Why is there the absurd assumption that older people voted leave and the young wanted to stay in the EU? People spout this drivel, yet I know of no-one who has ever had their opinion sought.

[JRDS]

1 minute ago, Raja Clavata said:

Is that really the best you can do...

I see you are from Essex, that would explain a lot.  Take Londonistan out of the numbers and you will see where the rest of the country living in the real world voted. 

[Raja Clavata]

Just now, Gordon R said:

Why is there the absurd assumption that older people voted leave and the young wanted to stay in the EU? People spout this drivel, yet I know of no-one who has ever had their opinion sought.

But it's not an assumption, let alone an absurd one:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/567922/distribution-of-eu-referendum-votes-by-age-and-gender-uk/

I thought you had a strong aversion to the use of anecdotal evidence being used to infer things...

Just now, JRDS said:

I see you are from Essex, that would explain a lot.  Take Londonistan out of the numbers and you will see where the rest of the country living in the real world voted. 

A bit better, but let's face it you were starting from a low baseline, feel free to keep going...

[JRDS]

Ahhhhhhhhhh a Troll will stop wasting my time. 

[Raja Clavata]

Just now, JRDS said:

Ahhhhhhhhhh a Troll will stop wasting my time. 

You regressed. 

[Gordon R]

Raja - sadly I have come to the conclusion that your only motive is stirring it. A cheapo poll showing voting distribution is about as accurate as those predicting a Tory landslide at the last election.

 

[Raja Clavata]

23 minutes ago, Gordon R said:

Raja - sadly I have come to the conclusion that your only motive is stirring it. A cheapo poll showing voting distribution is about as accurate as those predicting a Tory landslide at the last election.

 

Interesting, seems like the latest in a long standing history of one line put downs to people who don't align with your views.

First I over-estimated myself, then i was patronising, subsequently assumed an idiot and now finally a stirrer, whilst throughout no credible retorts to the counter assertions and opinions expressed.How convenient.

Cue the statutory "Excellent post" comments from some of the folks your views are aligned with...

[Gordon R]

Raja - give it up. You are what you are and I am beginning to feel sorry for you. A bit out of your depth.

[Raja Clavata]

11 minutes ago, Gordon R said:

Raja - give it up. You are what you are and I am beginning to feel sorry for you. A bit out of your depth.

quod erat demonstrandum

[Dave-G]

4 hours ago, Raja Clavata said:

Post of the week this, lol. But there is something very relevant about the age demographic on Brexit.

Maybe its because us elders have been taken for mugs the most.

 

[Mice!]

I would have thought its because the older lot remember the country being run from in house, the EU has slowly changed the rules so that what was originally signed up to is not what we now have.

we were given the chance to change things and shock horror people got off the sofa and voted, personally the age groups i know ranges from mid twenties to mid sixties and I've not heard anyone saying we should have stayed with europe, just that the way its being handled is a joke.

[JohnfromUK]

5 hours ago, Mice! said:

the EU has slowly changed the rules so that what was originally signed up to is not what we now have.

^^^ This

[Scully]

14 hours ago, Raja Clavata said:

Post of the week this, lol. But there is something very relevant about the age demographic on Brexit.

Perhaps because it's the first time this generation has had the opportunity to vote regarding the EU? Just a thought. 

[Gordon R]

Quote

quod erat demonstrandum

*** Troglodytarum semper dicere troglodytam

 

[Raja Clavata]

9 hours ago, Dave-G said:

Maybe its because us elders have been taken for mugs the most.

 

9 hours ago, Mice! said:

I would have thought its because the older lot remember the country being run from in house, the EU has slowly changed the rules so that what was originally signed up to is not what we now have.

 

13 minutes ago, Scully said:

Perhaps because it's the first time this generation has had the opportunity to vote regarding the EU? Just a thought. 

No doubt all contributing factors.

[Raja Clavata]

If we can move beyond the name calling, how do people see Brexit playing out?

[Scully]

24 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

If we can move beyond the name calling, how do people see Brexit playing out?

I think there wont be a Brexit. If I didn't have kids I'd have my hopes pinned on massive civil unrest, but know this to be as forlorn a hope as leaving the EU. 

In reality, I genuinely believe leaving will be thwarted at every proposal, and we'll waffle on and on until the deal will be watered down to the effect that leaving is nothing more than in name only and nothing really will change. The next GE will be interesting as a result. 

 

[Rewulf]

42 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

If we can move beyond the name calling, how do people see Brexit playing out?

Are you really interested ?
Or are you like most remainers, just looking for some 'sport' a way to have a wry chuckle to yourselves as the democracy and freedoms you profess to hold dear get thrown out the window and urinated on ?

Why so smug ? Is the whole EU project that important to you ?
Is globalism your dream socialist nirvana ?
What about the people that dont want that, are their dreams just plain wrong ? Uneducated ?
The opposite side of the progressive left wing ideals are considered somehow morally inept, yet the freedom of expression and individuality that is championed by them, doesnt seem to extend to the political right for some reason.

We had a vote, leave won, the result was going to be respected, the house voted that it would, the manifestos spouted it would , the leaders of both main parties said it would.
Leave means leave, No deal is better than a bad deal, once in a lifetime.
If you think its funny, and you want to continue living in this quagmire, the jokes on you.

But if you really want to know my opinion, although most people have already stated theirs, as have I.
Ill simplify it for you.
There will be a result of the process that will keep the majority happy.
Or there will be a result that will keep the minority happy.

Which one do you prefer?

[Raja Clavata]

54 minutes ago, Scully said:

I think there wont be a Brexit. If I didn't have kids I'd have my hopes pinned on massive civil unrest, but know this to be as forlorn a hope as leaving the EU. 

In reality, I genuinely believe leaving will be thwarted at every proposal, and we'll waffle on and on until the deal will be watered down to the effect that leaving is nothing more than in name only and nothing really will change. The next GE will be interesting as a result. 

 

Understood. I think the TM deal will be voted through, not sure if you view that as Brexit or no Brexit. Agree on the next GE, irrespective of the outcome of this, it will be very interesting.