BREXIT

[Cosmicblue]

Armsid

So you were in your 20s, so now you are in your 60s - same as me.

The list of Grumbles

From the top - the motor industry is truly global (2nd largest industry vertical in the world after pharma), the woes of the industry have nothing to do with the EU.  The industry responds to global trends, where the growth markets are and cheapest labour (i.e. Audi build the Q5 in Mexico).  For the automotive assembly industry here in UK it is dependent on open borders in the EU so that they can ship stuff back and forth - i.e. BMW build engines just south of Brum, some of the manufacturing steps are done in the EU and the components re-imported (tariff free) back to the UK. All bets are off with Brexit - most likely the plants in UK will be scaled back/closed - that's why getting that 'deal' is so important.

The challenges of the Steel industry are well documented and have nothing to do with the EU - you will have to look to China for that and where the steel that's made is actually consumed.

Pension funds have issues for lots of reasons - poor administration, people are living longer, financial crash of 2008 damaged values and earnings rates - many things none of which are EU related.

We could feed ourselves true - supermarkets would then only sell seasonal veg and fruit - much of what we eat is imported all the year round.  

The NHS - a favourite political football.  The NHS kicked off in 1948 - back then we men lived to about 66 and women to around 77.   The NHS is fundamentally doomed for many reasons:

1) Technology/science/research has discovered more ailments and methods of healing us coupled to ever more sophisticated treatments all of which cost money - lots of money.

2) People are living longer because of (1) above

3) All the technology and treatments require even more highly qualified staff that need to be paid a salary that reflects the skills, value and dedication.  Roughly speaking there are 320,000 nurses and about 150,000 doctors.  Their salaries do not reflect the dedication and professionalism - against overwhelming demands.  Giving each individual a £2 pay increase each year increases that wage bill by £1m - plus NI and pension costs.  Nurses salaries need to be increased by say £5,000 across the board to make it worth doing the job - they have to pay their Uni fees now so they can take care of us lot.  I have a dear friend working a night shift right now in cardio-thoracic ITU - people hanging on the very edge of life so providing minute to minute care so their families can take them home a week or two.  We don't pay those amazing people anywhere near enough.

So the NHS is in a doomed loop:  Increased life expectancy>ever more expensive treatments/staff>needs more money>increased life expectancy - repeat.

It's only a matter of time before the NHS has to transition to two-tier care system (like the US) where those with money can have private healthcare and the rest get the baked-potato version.   Does this having anything to do with the EU?   The world of 40 years ago has nothing to do with 2019 (except we have screwed over the climate in the intervening years) No - absolutely nothing - we do have EU nurses and doctors though.    

The EU and Brussels 

Yup - totally agree - the EU leadership and Brussels machinery has got too powerful and lost sight of the reason that it was created.   Stick to commerce and stop trying to meddle with pointless stuff that just keeps bureaucrats busy and the EU would be a good place to be.  The EU thing got broken because of our useless politicians (all countries) who were happy to take the salary rather than manage our collective futures - hence the mess we are in now. 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 16, 2019 by Cosmicblue

[SO3isme]

16 hours ago, JohnfromUK said:

Lawyers are usually quite capable of arguing any case backwards and forwards from both sides until one side runs out of money to pay them.

Love it. 'Rarely mentioned in these discussions, but I think that may actually what is happening here as much as anything, especially when you consider how many MPs are former lawyers.

They are making hay while the sun shines.

 

[oowee]

10 hours ago, RSQ3John said:

 

Finally - don't torch or troll me for the post - happy to discuss if you believe the above is different to the facts that you understand. 

Having spent much of my working life supporting internatonal investment projects to the UK your post is bang on the money. The global rebalancing of economies that is currently taking place is a painful truth that the UK is finding hard to deal with. 

[henry d]

1 minute ago, oowee said:

Having spent much of my working life supporting internatonal investment projects to the UK your post is bang on the money. The global rebalancing of economies that is currently taking place is a painful truth that the UK is finding hard to deal with. 

A bit of a broad brush stroke, it's just a large section of UK society that can't deal with it and believe that "Great Britain" will rise again.

[Vince Green]

8 hours ago, RSQ3John said:

Armsid

So you were in your 20s, so now you are in your 60s - same as me.

The list of Grumbles

From the top - the motor industry is truly global (2nd largest industry vertical in the world after pharma), the woes of the industry have nothing to do with the EU.  The industry responds to global trends, where the growth markets are and cheapest labour (i.e. Audi build the Q5 in Mexico).  For the automotive assembly industry here in UK it is dependent on open borders in the EU so that they can ship stuff back and forth - i.e. BMW build engines just south of Brum, some of the manufacturing steps are done in the EU and the components re-imported (tariff free) back to the UK. All bets are off with Brexit - most likely the plants in UK will be scaled back/closed - that's why getting that 'deal' is so important.

The challenges of the Steel industry are well documented and have nothing to do with the EU - you will have to look to China for that and where the steel that's made is actually consumed.

Pension funds have issues for lots of reasons - poor administration, people are living longer, financial crash of 2008 damaged values and earnings rates - many things none of which are EU related.

We could feed ourselves true - supermarkets would then only sell seasonal veg and fruit - much of what we eat is imported all the year round.  

The NHS - a favourite political football.  The NHS kicked off in 1948 - back then we men lived to about 66 and women to around 77.   The NHS is fundamentally doomed for many reasons:

1) Technology/science/research has discovered more ailments and methods of healing us coupled to ever more sophisticated treatments all of which cost money - lots of money.

2) People are living longer because of (1) above

3) All the technology and treatments require even more highly qualified staff that need to be paid a salary that reflects the skills, value and dedication.  Roughly speaking there are 320,000 nurses and about 150,000 doctors.  Their salaries do not reflect the dedication and professionalism - against overwhelming demands.  Giving each individual a £2 pay increase each year increases that wage bill by £1m - plus NI and pension costs.  Nurses salaries need to be increased by say £5,000 across the board to make it worth doing the job - they have to pay their Uni fees now so they can take care of us lot.  I have a dear friend working a night shift right now in cardio-thoracic ITU - people hanging on the very edge of life so providing minute to minute care so their families can take them home a week or two.  We don't pay those amazing people anywhere near enough.

So the NHS is in a doomed loop:  Increased life expectancy>ever more expensive treatments/staff>needs more money>increased life expectancy - repeat.

It's only a matter of time before the NHS has to transition to two-tier care system (like the US) where those with money can have private healthcare and the rest get the baked-potato version.   Does this having anything to do with the EU?   The world of 40 years ago has nothing to do with 2019 (except we have screwed over the climate in the intervening years) No - absolutely nothing - we do have EU nurses and doctors though.    

The EU and Brussels 

Yup - totally agree - the EU leadership and Brussels machinery has got too powerful and lost sight of the reason that it was created.   Stick to commerce and stop trying to meddle with pointless stuff that just keeps bureaucrats busy and the EU would be a good place to be.  The EU thing got broken because of our useless politicians (all countries) who were happy to take the salary rather than manage our collective futures - hence the mess we are in now. 

 

 

 

 

A very good post and I agree with practically all you say. I do have a difference of opinion with you regarding the steel industry. For decades Germany has illegally subsidised its own steel industry allowing it to undercut British Steel's sales in this country but also, and more importantly, strangling our ability to export. For many years this undermining has eroded the industry, preventing its ability to reinvest . China is only a late arrival, by the time it started making itself felt the damage was already done.

The real gripe was that everybody knew what was happening but the EU appeared happy to allow the illegal subsidy to continue. To me that was a big red flag, if it was the other way round and we were damaging Germany's steel industry with illegal subsidies would we get away with it? Not a level playing field.

I totally agree with you about the NHS, its like a bush that's been allowed to grow wild without structure. The key point is that at no time has the NHS employed a high number of EU nationals. I think at the highest it was 4.7%. Much less than Indian or Chinese nationals who have to apply for work permits. So the project fear assertion that the NHS would collapse if we left the EU was not true.

Edited September 17, 2019 by Vince Green

[Rewulf]

1 hour ago, oowee said:

Having spent much of my working life supporting internatonal investment projects to the UK your post is bang on the money. The global rebalancing of economies that is currently taking place is a painful truth that the UK, and the EU , Particularly Germany, the US / Canada is finding hard to deal with. 

Fixed that for you.

 

57 minutes ago, henry d said:

A bit of a broad brush stroke, it's just a large section of UK society that can't deal with it and believe that "Great Britain" will rise again.

Let me guess which part of 'society' you are referring to...
Really Henry, it must be a lonely place up on that very high horse you sit upon.

[Vince Green]

1 hour ago, henry d said:

A bit of a broad brush stroke, it's just a large section of UK society that can't deal with it and believe that "Great Britain" will rise again.

I really can't understand how you fail to see that the EU is like quicksand, it sucks all the member states down into a submissive form of dependence. This can't be accidental, its far from being a partnership of equals..  

Our only chance is to break free, whatever the cost, before we are consumed

Edited September 17, 2019 by Vince Green

[Rewulf]

11 hours ago, RSQ3John said:

Economic reality

Even here on a shooting forum - where do the raw materials for our ammunition come from?  Where do most of the affordable guns come from?  Yup - most of it comes from the EU.   Right now all goods are sold VAT free from the supplying country and pass through the EU borders without collecting customs duty.  UK VAT is charged at the point of sale.  Simples.

So has anyone bothered to explain what will happen when we aren't in the EU?   The EU supplier company will apply VAT (legal requirement) and their country border will apply an export duty charge. At the UK border HMRC will levy UK duty+VAT and then the retailer that sells you the product will have to apply UK VAT.   Net result everything (that is EVERYTHING) that's imported is going have the costs rolled upwards and is going to become VERY expensive.   This is serious stuff - when screaming for exit on the 31st of October without a 'deal' you have to understand that decent people will lose a standard of living that many assume is a democratic right.  It isn't.

I have no axe to grind either-way on this topic btw..

THAT statement, like a mini project fear for shooters, is both inaccurate , and grossly misleading.

Most of the EXPENSIVE end of the gun market comes from the EU.

More powder comes out the States than the EU .
The raw materials to make that powder DO NOT originate in the EU.

Cartridge manufacture is both British and US dominated in this country.

Ive just looked in my cabinet, out of 7 firearms, 2 , a CZ and a Beretta , originate from the EU, the rest are American or Turkish.

American firearms market is 100x the size of the EUs at a conservative estimate.
So to say that EVERYTHING comes out the EU ? Well makes the rest of your argument pointless.

But the best bit ?
The EU and its policy toward firearm ownership, is highly negative, which makes your argument not only wrong , but misleading.

[henry d]

Vince, you have an interesting worldview, you appear to see the EU as an entity all of its own and not a sum of all the parts. That way of thinking is similar to those who believe conspiracy theories. The world is changing very fast and it is a scary place, no longer can we point to someone who is different from us and say "They are the baddies!". The systems that control the world is different today than yesterday and no-one has a good hold on the reins and to gain control of your sense of the world there has to be a SINGULAR baddy to blame and the truth of the matter is that there isn't. The whole world is bloatedly out of control and we just have to try and make the right decision for the different communities we belong to. Crashing out without a deal will affect the poor the worst, and onward up society the problems will get less, the poop sandwich if you will. The more bread you have the less poop you have to eat, that is not right.

[Rewulf]

23 minutes ago, henry d said:

Vince, you have an interesting worldview, you appear to see the EU as an entity all of its own and not a sum of all the parts. That way of thinking is similar to those who believe conspiracy theories. The world is changing very fast and it is a scary place, no longer can we point to someone who is different from us and say "They are the baddies!". The systems that control the world is different today than yesterday and no-one has a good hold on the reins and to gain control of your sense of the world there has to be a SINGULAR baddy to blame and the truth of the matter is that there isn't. The whole world is bloatedly out of control and we just have to try and make the right decision for the different communities we belong to. Crashing out without a deal will affect the poor the worst, and onward up society the problems will get less, the poop sandwich if you will. The more bread you have the less poop you have to eat, that is not right.

Gordon Bennet !  

[Cosmicblue]

52 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

THAT statement, like a mini project fear for shooters, is both inaccurate , and grossly misleading.

Most of the EXPENSIVE end of the gun market comes from the EU.

More powder comes out the States than the EU .
The raw materials to make that powder DO NOT originate in the EU.

Cartridge manufacture is both British and US dominated in this country.

Ive just looked in my cabinet, out of 7 firearms, 2 , a CZ and a Beretta , originate from the EU, the rest are American or Turkish.

American firearms market is 100x the size of the EUs at a conservative estimate.
So to say that EVERYTHING comes out the EU ? Well makes the rest of your argument pointless.

But the best bit ?
The EU and its policy toward firearm ownership, is highly negative, which makes your argument not only wrong , but misleading.

No Rewulf it's not -

Turkey whilst not a full participant of the EU - it signed a Customs Union agreement in 1995.  

I do make the point at the end is that where the concept of the EU as a trading group was a good idea - our representatives have failed in keeping the EU bureaucrats out stuff that isn't anything to do with trading agreements.

[Rewulf]

10 minutes ago, RSQ3John said:

No Rewulf it's not -

Turkey whilst not a full participant of the EU - it signed a Customs Union agreement in 1995.  

Whats that got to do with your assertion that firearms use will be affected by a no deal Brexit ?

To clarify, Turkey is not in THE EU customs union, its in a customs union deal with the EU , as a forerunner to full membership, which is now , highly unlikely.

13 minutes ago, RSQ3John said:

I do make the point at the end is that where the concept of the EU as a trading group was a good idea - our representatives have failed in keeping the EU bureaucrats out stuff that isn't anything to do with trading agreements.

I didnt argue that point did I ?
I tend to agree the first part, but its not our representatives at fault, it is the EU constantly changing the articles of the Lisbon treaty, toward ever closer union, hoping nobody will notice.

[Zapp]

In case there is any confusion, rsq3john's account has been merged with his old one (cosmicblue), for which he had forgotten the password.  His new posts will show as cosmicblue but any quotations will not.

[JRDS]

11 hours ago, Cosmicblue said:

Armsid

So you were in your 20s, so now you are in your 60s - same as me.

The list of Grumbles

From the top - the motor industry is truly global (2nd largest industry vertical in the world after pharma), the woes of the industry have nothing to do with the EU.  The industry responds to global trends, where the growth markets are and cheapest labour (i.e. Audi build the Q5 in Mexico).  For the automotive assembly industry here in UK it is dependent on open borders in the EU so that they can ship stuff back and forth - i.e. BMW build engines just south of Brum, some of the manufacturing steps are done in the EU and the components re-imported (tariff free) back to the UK. All bets are off with Brexit - most likely the plants in UK will be scaled back/closed - that's why getting that 'deal' is so important.

The challenges of the Steel industry are well documented and have nothing to do with the EU - you will have to look to China for that and where the steel that's made is actually consumed.

Pension funds have issues for lots of reasons - poor administration, people are living longer, financial crash of 2008 damaged values and earnings rates - many things none of which are EU related.

We could feed ourselves true - supermarkets would then only sell seasonal veg and fruit - much of what we eat is imported all the year round.  

The NHS - a favourite political football.  The NHS kicked off in 1948 - back then we men lived to about 66 and women to around 77.   The NHS is fundamentally doomed for many reasons:

1) Technology/science/research has discovered more ailments and methods of healing us coupled to ever more sophisticated treatments all of which cost money - lots of money.

2) People are living longer because of (1) above

3) All the technology and treatments require even more highly qualified staff that need to be paid a salary that reflects the skills, value and dedication.  Roughly speaking there are 320,000 nurses and about 150,000 doctors.  Their salaries do not reflect the dedication and professionalism - against overwhelming demands.  Giving each individual a £2 pay increase each year increases that wage bill by £1m - plus NI and pension costs.  Nurses salaries need to be increased by say £5,000 across the board to make it worth doing the job - they have to pay their Uni fees now so they can take care of us lot.  I have a dear friend working a night shift right now in cardio-thoracic ITU - people hanging on the very edge of life so providing minute to minute care so their families can take them home a week or two.  We don't pay those amazing people anywhere near enough.

So the NHS is in a doomed loop:  Increased life expectancy>ever more expensive treatments/staff>needs more money>increased life expectancy - repeat.

It's only a matter of time before the NHS has to transition to two-tier care system (like the US) where those with money can have private healthcare and the rest get the baked-potato version.   Does this having anything to do with the EU?   The world of 40 years ago has nothing to do with 2019 (except we have screwed over the climate in the intervening years) No - absolutely nothing - we do have EU nurses and doctors though.    

The EU and Brussels 

Yup - totally agree - the EU leadership and Brussels machinery has got too powerful and lost sight of the reason that it was created.   Stick to commerce and stop trying to meddle with pointless stuff that just keeps bureaucrats busy and the EU would be a good place to be.  The EU thing got broken because of our useless politicians (all countries) who were happy to take the salary rather than manage our collective futures - hence the mess we are in now. 

 

 

 

 

You forget to mention how many UK companies have been paid with EU grants (from UK Taxpayers pockets) to build and relocate factories elsewhere in the EU.

[serrac]

21 hours ago, JohnfromUK said:

I am not a lawyer, but possibly there are many and varied 'opinions' of which this is just one.  It may be that Government lawyers believe that they would have little chance of this being upheld in whatever court it has to go to (EU Court of UK Supreme Court?)

Lawyers are usually quite capable of arguing any case backwards and forwards from both sides until one side runs out of money to pay them.

And if Boris stood up on the 14th of October and said "well actually I don't know if it would be lawful under Article 50 to request a further extension and will not do so until the issue is clarified by the courts".  Could make for an interesting second half to October :-).

[Cosmicblue]

31 minutes ago, JRDS said:

You forget to mention how many UK companies have been paid with EU grants (from UK Taxpayers pockets) to build and relocate factories elsewhere in the EU.

Please name one JRDS - let's investigate the facts. 

[Rewulf]

6 minutes ago, Cosmicblue said:

Please name one JRDS - let's investigate the facts. 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1032570/Brexit-news-Jaguar-Land-Rover-Solihull-Birmingham-Slovakia-tata-motors-leave-EU

Try that one for starters.

[JRDS]

https://janetteheffernan.blogspot.com/2016/06/brexit-list-of-uk-companies-no-longer.html

 

http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2016/06/16/how-joining-the-eu-led-to-a-big-decline-in-uk-industry/

Edited September 17, 2019 by JRDS

[Penelope]

On 13/09/2019 at 13:09, Yellow Bear said:

She also seems to forget the biggest slavers in the world were the arabs and the coastal African tribes, the European races simply bought some of them.

Oh, god, please don't mention the truth!

[Retsdon]

The thing about the Brexit camp is that it's very good about saying what it doesn't want, but when you ask them what they actually do want, it all tends to become a bit hazy. I mean, do hard-line Brexiters want no relationship at all with the EU? I doubt that would be practical. So what sort of relationship with the would be the desired outcome, and what kind of concessions would be acceptable to arrive at that outcome? 

It's a discussion that needs to be got on with because from the moment Britain leaves the EU without a deal there's going to a pretty urgent need to get one. The Leave campaigners might have won the referendum vote by stressing the negatives of the EU, and not having a post-exit plan themselves that could be picked apart proved to be tactically very astute. But now the No Deal Brexit is looming - what next?

[Rewulf]

14 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

The thing about the Brexit camp is that it's very good about saying what it doesn't want, but when you ask them what they actually do want, it all tends to become a bit hazy. I mean, do hard-line Brexiters want no relationship at all with the EU? I doubt that would be practical. So what sort of relationship with the would be the desired outcome, and what kind of concessions would be acceptable to arrive at that outcome? 

It's a discussion that needs to be got on with because from the moment Britain leaves the EU without a deal there's going to a pretty urgent need to get one. The Leave campaigners might have won the referendum vote by stressing the negatives of the EU, and not having a post-exit plan themselves that could be picked apart proved to be tactically very astute. But now the No Deal Brexit is looming - what next?

Its very very simple , the relationship is trade only.
No political meddling, no interference in UK courts and laws.
It never used to be like that, when it was trade only , there were no issues.
You cant tell me that the EU/EEC/Common market hasnt tightened the screw gradually over the years to the point where it has become the supreme law in Europe?
This is not what we signed up for, in any way shape or form.

Every step along the way , the people , us , who pay for it , never consulted over whether this was our chosen path.

All we are asking for is to go back to trade only, NO ONE has ever said they dont want any kind of relationship with Europe, ever.

No doubt someone will now say 'You cant have just trade, its not fair/theres other factors/it doesnt work like that'
Rubbish , thats exactly how it works, not every country that trades with the EU , is IN the EU is it ?

'But what about tariffs ?' 
Ok , tariffs work both ways no ?
We can behave like adults and come to an agreement, especially when most of the benefits of that agreement go to THEM.

The EU has spent far too thinking they have us at a disadvantage, their bluff game is strong.
But that time has come to an end, and the bells are tolling in Brussels and Berlin.
We ARE  leaving one way or another, and the crashing out, the cliff edges, work both ways.
Lets see who really runs Europe, the Europeans , or the EU.

[Vince Green]

2 hours ago, JRDS said:

You forget to mention how many UK companies have been paid with EU grants (from UK Taxpayers pockets) to build and relocate factories elsewhere in the EU.

Which is not legal under EU laws to offer financial inducements to relocate. You really couldn't make it up!

9 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

Its very very simple , the relationship is trade only.
No political meddling, no interference in UK courts and laws.
It never used to be like that, when it was trade only , there were no issues.
You cant tell me that the EU/EEC/Common market hasnt tightened the screw gradually over the years to the point where it has become the supreme law in Europe?
This is not what we signed up for, in any way shape or form.

Every step along the way , the people , us , who pay for it , never consulted over whether this was our chosen path.

All we are asking for is to go back to trade only, NO ONE has ever said they dont want any kind of relationship with Europe, ever.

No doubt someone will now say 'You cant have just trade, its not fair/theres other factors/it doesnt work like that'
Rubbish , thats exactly how it works, not every country that trades with the EU , is IN the EU is it ?

'But what about tariffs ?' 
Ok , tariffs work both ways no ?
We can behave like adults and come to an agreement, especially when most of the benefits of that agreement go to THEM.

The EU has spent far too thinking they have us at a disadvantage, their bluff game is strong.
But that time has come to an end, and the bells are tolling in Brussels and Berlin.
We ARE  leaving one way or another, and the crashing out, the cliff edges, work both ways.
Lets see who really runs Europe, the Europeans , or the EU.

Good post

[Retsdon]

16 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

But what about tariffs?

Tarriffs are simple. Instead, what about the £90 billion worth of services that the UK currently sells in the EU? 

[Rewulf]

9 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

Tarriffs are simple. Instead, what about the £90 billion worth of services that the UK currently sells in the EU? 

Do you honestly think that if they could find them elsewhere , or create the industry themselves, they wouldnt already have done it ?

[Cosmicblue]

2 hours ago, Cosmicblue said:

Please name one JRDS - let's investigate the facts. 

Thanks

Excellent - it's all about economics - why can't a company relocate to another country?  Reduce costs, get the factory nearer to the market's it is serving - that's the modern world.   So we come out of the EU - will this change?  No - because the EU will still exist and they will be able to rape and pillage the UK without us having any say in it at all - we will most likely still be contributing to the EU financially even though we are no longer members.

The UK is just a little cog in a much bigger machine - we don't operate in isolation of Europe whether we are in the EU or out of it.    Europe won't suddenly disappear overnight and the UK will float off on it's own.   We are connected in a 21st century world - this isn't the 1970s anymore and we can't think like we have some sort of Empire to preserve.