Putting things into perspective

[oowee]

20 minutes ago, AVB said:

Not sure that is true. The stats vary widely but it is ‘only’ of those who die of Covid-19 as a percentage of those who are tested. It is believed that the number of people who actually have Covid-19 in the U.K. is 10 times the number of have been proven to have it via testing. 

This professor says the death rate is likely 0.1%. 

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-to-understand-and-report-figures-for-covid-19-deaths-?fbclid=IwAR1egbJvM5hEFVVcojjJBUMZ_YfBIkX7TdqRqZU7SLGdVs-LNL_iVToyw5E

Who really knows

That is what i said, but if the true death rate were 0.1% then the infected figure in the uk would have to be 1.4m. In Germany where there is a lot of testing and contagion mapping the death rate is 1.1%. so far (deaths lag infection). Whatever I don't want to get it if I can avoid it 🙂 

Edited March 30, 2020 by oowee

[lancer425]

180 patients died today who had cv19, some had other illnesses. But show me where that many people died in 1 day with flue who had other illnesses .  in the uk.  This is about as real as it gets. Your not going to get over this ****** with a few days in bed and a paracetamol and some vicks vapour rub.

As the old saying goes be afraid be very afraid. Stay home its simple advice.

[Mice!]

@lancer425 this was from a link the other day, I was shocked by the figures, I never realised flu had such a big effect. 

[AVB]

14 minutes ago, lancer425 said:

180 patients died today who had cv19, some had other illnesses. But show me where that many people died in 1 day with flue who had other illnesses .  in the uk.  This is about as real as it gets. Your not going to get over this ****** with a few days in bed and a paracetamol and some vicks vapour rub.

As the old saying goes be afraid be very afraid. Stay home its simple advice.

Flu isn’t a notifiable disease so it won’t get reported as a cause of death. However, taking 2015 as an example, there were 44,000 excess winter deaths (deaths higher than normal) likely due to flu. (Source office for national statistics) 

The facts are that for the vast majority of people you are going to get over this with a few days in bed, paracetamol and a Vicks rub. 

Edited March 30, 2020 by AVB
Added source

[AVB]

29 minutes ago, oowee said:

That is what i said, but if the true death rate were 0.1% then the infected figure in the uk would have to be 1.4m. In Germany where there is a lot of testing and contagion mapping the death rate is 1.1%. so far (deaths lag infection). Whatever I don't want to get it if I can avoid it 🙂 

Isn’t it a reality though that until a vaccine is developed (a long way off I am told) we are all are likely to get it, or at least 80% of us will, until heard immunity kicks in and the virus naturally dies down. Unless the plan is really to keep us locked down until next year! 

[lancer425]

2 minutes ago, AVB said:

Flu isn’t a notifiable disease so it won’t get reported as a cause of death. However, taking 2015 as an example, there were 44,000 excess winter deaths (deaths higher than normal) likely due to flu. 

The facts are that for the vast majority of people you are going to get over this with a few days in bed, paracetamol and a Vicks rub. 

I dont see it somehow. I never seen devastation like this across the world, lots are getting ill and dying. Its happening here now. Its not just the death part that happens as many have said. But cv19 is bringing about death sudden and in good numbers and all ages, its looking like half needing hospitalisation croak from this. That not forced to be me you or anybody we know. but its some body and, i think we need to not catch it just now, i think that’s a bad idea as individuals and as a country. Stay home im my opinion. end of. Not normal i know, but i am a simple man and this lot is not normal either.

[Cosmicblue]

Was talking to a critical care specialist friend this evening who works in ITU who has just finished 2x12 hour shifts, totally drained and exhausted.  Make no mistake if you get to the point of being admitted to hospital then you are in very serious trouble.  

Seems this virus comes in two forms, the 1^st has mild symptoms, bad headaches and a cough for about a week and the 2^nd turns a fit and healthy human into something that’s most likely going to die in two or three days.   The TV news doesn’t get close to the reality, the hospital is like a war zone, a totally panicky and anxious atmosphere.  Prior to this crisis the unit would be taking patients from theatre after major surgery , right on death’s doorway, unconscious, full of tubes and technology and they’d take care of them, get them back to strength and discharged – sometimes after many weeks but they’d make it out alive.  Now every shift they are losing patients, figuring out those that have got a slim chance and those that haven’t.

The professional guidance this evening was to stay healthy and be vigilant over infection control – there isn’t any effective treatment, no drugs to fight the virus and all an ITU can do is buy the patient a bit more time.  It isn't just the elderly and vulnerable that are being taken out, much younger victims are surfacing.  I suspect that our politicians know the grim reality already but dare not let the brutal facts escape?

 

 

[Mice!]

2 minutes ago, Cosmicblue said:

The professional guidance this evening was to stay healthy and be vigilant over infection control – there isn’t any effective treatment, no drugs to fight the virus and all an ITU can do is buy the patient a bit more time.  It isn't just the elderly and vulnerable that are being taken out, much younger victims are surfacing.  I suspect that our politicians know the grim reality already but dare not let the brutal facts escape?

 

It's the brutal facts that are needed, if people are going to stay indoors for who knows how long, they need to know the reason why. 

[lancer425]

4 minutes ago, Mice! said:

It's the brutal facts that are needed, if people are going to stay indoors for who knows how long, they need to know the reason why. 

I worked out how serious this was about a month ago, watching the media that weekend when they were all lined up buying fish and chips at whitby. I think a lot of death was born that day across the whole country. Lets hope the news it seems to be working, does not spur another bout of sunny day socialising. best thing it can do is **** it down perhaps keep the idiots in. .

[NatureBoy]

They ant keeping building them new big hospitals for nowt are they!  . . . 25% of doctors off or having to self isolate.    NB

[oowee]

6 hours ago, AVB said:

Isn’t it a reality though that until a vaccine is developed (a long way off I am told) we are all are likely to get it, or at least 80% of us will, until heard immunity kicks in and the virus naturally dies down. Unless the plan is really to keep us locked down until next year! 

Certainly a good possibility. My daughter reckons it is only a matter of time before she gets it working with the patients, in the hospital. There is evidence that says the severity of the virus is linked to the level of the dose you receive. 

[Robden]

Is this a case of dumbing down!?!?

This disease is called:  'Coronavirus disease' (COVID-19).

The actual virus is called: 'Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2', (SARS-CoV-2).

Maybe, just maybe, if the virus name was used at the beginning, people (myself included) may have taken it more seriously, and not thought it just another flu bug.

The below was taken from the WHO website:

"From a risk communications perspective, using the name SARS can have unintended consequences in terms of creating unnecessary fear for some populations, especially in Asia which was worst affected by the SARS outbreak in 2003. 

For that reason and others, WHO has begun referring to the virus as “the virus responsible for COVID-19” or “the COVID-19 virus” when communicating with the public." 

[Walker570]

Be sensible, stay safe and live to shoot another pigeon guys. 

[loriusgarrulus]

I am staying put. We have not been out for 2 weeks now. I have even stopped drinking alcohol to keep my immune system at full throttle. I like an occasional drink, but don't miss it. OH is only having one beer at night, no spirits. He has an overactive immune system thanks to psoriaritic arthritis and thankful he didn't  let the doctor persuade him into taking methotrexate, which suppresses the immune system. Any deliveries get sprayed with 70% IPA before getting in the house.

I have not seen my Daughter or Grandchildren who only live a few streets away. We are missing seeing the bluebells flowering in our wood this year. It is worth staying in if we get to see our Grandchildren grow up and the bluebells flower a few more years. 👍

[old man]

29 minutes ago, Walker570 said:

Be sensible, stay safe and live to shoot another pigeon guys. 

Yep. With this one you have a choice, reduce the risk or enhance it?

I hope to live along with family to fight another day so stay isolated as much as possible.

As usual society is under attack from within? People ignoring advice and pleasing themselves and now the Police being told to back off?

Words fail as to the ignorance and bullish attitudes of some. No wonder we are usually in trouble as a society?

 

[PPP]

11 hours ago, Cawdor118 said:

Ahhhh, but what will March, April and May compare like! Only time shall tell. 

March will not be 2500 more ...

11 hours ago, oowee said:

How accurate is it? It's unknown.

Its not easy to get a figure because we don't know how many have had it but as of today the recorded infected is 776k and the dead is 37k. 

This from the FT
The figure at the root of so much global angst about coronavirus is currently 4.7 per cent. That is the proportion of people, as of Sunday afternoon, who have died after being diagnosed with the virus — 32,137 out of the 685,623 who have tested positive for Covid-19 around the world. It compares with a death rate of around 0.1 per cent for seasonal flu and 0.2 per cent for pneumonia in high-income countries. However, 4.7 per cent is not only changeable but frustratingly unreliable, both for governments seeking to calibrate their policy response and for citizens trying to gauge how much they should worry.

This is the issue with stats, it’s on detected cases, IF as expected the actual number of cases is 10 - 20 x the tested number then the rate is as normal, lies, damned lies...

We won’t Know for six months, but due to lack of testing we should be looking at deaths Q1 and Q2 vs 5 year average and then maybe looking at taking out those who would have died anyway ...

Lies, damned lies and statistics ...

 

[Mice!]

1 hour ago, loriusgarrulus said:

have not seen my Daughter or Grandchildren

I know it's not the same but can you video call? So many options these days to stay in contact. 

[mel b3]

5 hours ago, Walker570 said:

Be sensible, stay safe and live to shoot another pigeon guys. 

 

5 hours ago, loriusgarrulus said:

 

I have not seen my Daughter or Grandchildren who only live a few streets away. We are missing seeing the bluebells flowering in our wood this year. It is worth staying in if we get to see our Grandchildren grow up and the bluebells flower a few more years. 👍

Are the correct answers 👍.

[treetree]

20 hours ago, oowee said:

In perspective this thing will kill 4-5% of the popuation that get it. Do you like the odds for your family? 

How could you possibly know that when we have no idea how many people have had it.

[oowee]

55 minutes ago, treetree said:

How could you possibly know that when we have no idea how many people have had it.

Read the posts. 

[Retsdon]

China's figures are the best ones to look at because a) they did a lot of testing, and b)  96% of their cases have now resolved. And the overall death rate there has been 4%. What seems to be about right is that for 80% of people the disease is going to be like a bad flu at worst. For 20%, it'll be a very nasty experience that might well require hospital treatment. And of those who go into hospital about 18+% won't be coming out.

For those who say this just a flu, I have a scenario. I hand you a 5 shot revolver and tell you that one chamber has a round in it. Will it kill you? Hmmm, probably not - but if you spin the chamber and it lands on the round you'll almost certainly be going to hospital. And once there you'll have about an 18% chance of dying. Failing that you'll just be very sick for several weeks.

 I have a question. How much money would you need on the table to pick up the revolver and play Russian roulette? 

Edited March 31, 2020 by Retsdon

[treetree]

18 minutes ago, oowee said:

Read the posts. 

I have, and no where in the posts is any credible explanation given that could allow you to make the wild claim you have made.

[oowee]

8 minutes ago, treetree said:

I have, and no where in the posts is any credible explanation given that could allow you to make the wild claim you have made.

Let me help you by copying the post again. 

How accurate is it? It's unknown.

Its not easy to get a figure because we don't know how many have had it but as of today the recorded infected is 776k and the dead is 37k. 

This from the FT
The figure at the root of so much global angst about coronavirus is currently 4.7 per cent. That is the proportion of people, as of Sunday afternoon, who have died after being diagnosed with the virus — 32,137 out of the 685,623 who have tested positive for Covid-19 around the world. It compares with a death rate of around 0.1 per cent for seasonal flu and 0.2 per cent for pneumonia in high-income countries. However, 4.7 per cent is not only changeable but frustratingly unreliable, both for governments seeking to calibrate their policy response and for citizens trying to gauge how much they should worry.

[treetree]

 

21 hours ago, oowee said:

In perspective this thing will kill 4-5% of the popuation that get it. Do you like the odds for your family? 

So, you said the above, with absolute certitude, but then caveat that in a further post with ( regarding the figure)

 

10 minutes ago, oowee said:

How accurate is it? It's unknown

and

11 minutes ago, oowee said:

we don't know how many have had it

Surely essential if we wish to generate meaningful percentages.

And then to cap it off

12 minutes ago, oowee said:

However, 4.7 per cent is not only changeable but frustratingly unreliable,

When this antibody test is up and running, a randomised sampling of the population should give a better understanding of the extent to which this virus has or hasn't passed through the population already. Until then, quoting that figure is alarmist and wrong.

[AVB]

52 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

China's figures are the best ones to look at because a) they did a lot of testing, and b)  96% of their cases have now resolved. And the overall death rate there has been 4%. What seems to be about right is that for 80% of people the disease is going to be like a bad flu at worst. For 20%, it'll be a very nasty experience that might well require hospital treatment. And of those who go into hospital about 18+% won't be coming out.

For those who say this just a flu, I have a scenario. I hand you a 5 shot revolver and tell you that one chamber has a round in it. Will it kill you? Hmmm, probably not - but if you spin the chamber and it lands on the round you'll almost certainly be going to hospital. And once there you'll have about an 18% chance of dying. Failing that you'll just be very sick for several weeks.

 I have a question. How much money would you need on the table to pick up the revolver and play Russian roulette? 

Slightly flawed analogy as the percentage you quote includes people who were seriously ill and dying anyway. Neither does it takes into account age. Also whilst they recorded every death they didn’t test everybody (although a lot). So for a person under 60 with no health conditions it isn’t 96% more likely 99.99%. 

As the DCMO said today these stats are all meaningless until we get to the end when we can look back and analyse a constant data set. 

At the moment the odds are still on the side of it only being mild for most people.