93%

[Raja Clavata]

Against. We need to crack on before there's nothing left to crack on with. We all found ourselves at threat of redundancy in August due to all this, I survived but many colleagues didn't. The reaction to this global health pandemic has caused an even greater global economic problem and its effects have barely even started to reveal themselves yet.

[Deker]

12 hours ago, moondoggy said:

People vote against, but I don’t see anyone offering alternative solutions to this massive problem

against - protect the vulnerable (and those in direct contact) with furlough etc but let the rest of the people get on with life.

11 hours ago, Walker570 said:

NOW how many of you for ( I note not many) run your own small businesses, publicans, B&B, or have lost your business as a result. 

We have become a risk averse nation.  This covid is now here and it ain't going away, so get on and enjoy life is my belief. It ain't a rehearsal.  For those who don't already know I am in my 80th year so one of the supposedly "At Risk" members of society. Really, should I lock myself in my house worse than a criminal with a tag?

No way!   I have 14 driven days booked bewteen now and the end of January and I will be out as often as I can with rifle or shotgun in between times. 

I am against having any restrictions.

Good for you, my dad is 81 and unfortunately in poor health (terminal cancer) and these lockdowns have had him restricted to his home and unable to see his friends in what are the last months of his life, he would rather have took his chances (and indeed may have had it) but the government have removed this opportunity from him so he's home alone with visits from only my sister and myself.

[Walker570]

Tough to hear that Deker, take care of him.  I know of a lady who is 94 and has a great village social life. She has been locked in her home now for almost twelve months. Unable to go a short drive to see friends and even not really seeing her familyas she normally would. I am sure there are thousands in the same boat.

[JohnfromUK]

13 hours ago, AVB said:

I read yesterday that only four hospitals in England had more people in them compared to last year. In total 87.7% utilisation vs 94.9% last year 

I don't doubt that .......... but a sudden unexpected hospitalisation last week has given me unwelcome inside knowledge.  It was a 900 bed hospital.  The hospital ward I was in was only 50% or less utilised - as we were a Covid tested (everyb other day) and negatives only area.  The story via the staff was that the Covid positive wards were bulgingly full and had had to be increased - whereas routine stuff was being postponed due to the major additional times for sanitising between procedures.  Bloke in bed opposite me had his (non urgent) operation cancelled - Doc told him that the delays by the additional procedures were the direct cause.

Overall, the hospital was not full .......... but the Covid positive areas were under pressure - whereas the Covid negative areas were low occupancy. 

[AVB]

48 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

I don't doubt that .......... but a sudden unexpected hospitalisation last week has given me unwelcome inside knowledge.  It was a 900 bed hospital.  The hospital ward I was in was only 50% or less utilised - as we were a Covid tested (everyb other day) and negatives only area.  The story via the staff was that the Covid positive wards were bulgingly full and had had to be increased - whereas routine stuff was being postponed due to the major additional times for sanitising between procedures.  Bloke in bed opposite me had his (non urgent) operation cancelled - Doc told him that the delays by the additional procedures were the direct cause.

Overall, the hospital was not full .......... but the Covid positive areas were under pressure - whereas the Covid negative areas were low occupancy. 

Which is a good point. However the NHS paid for a significant number of private hospital beds which apparently 75% are unused (happy to be corrected on this number as I can’t find it right now). Why not move more non covid cases to private hospitals and dedicate more NHS hospital space to covid? 

[JohnfromUK]

2 minutes ago, AVB said:

Why not move more non covid cases to private hospitals and dedicate more NHS hospital space to covid? 

I cannot comment as I don't know.  Possibly because private hospitals are more geared up to things like joint replacements, and non urgent procedures?  In my case (admission via Dr who sent me to A&E), I suspect private would have been fine, but for people with serious procedures required - maybe private doesn't have many of the right types of facility? 

I know a few years ago my father had a joint replacement done - but had to be screened before as his age meant he was a higher risk, and the private hospital (Nuffield) had no facility suitable for some of the potential higher risk aspects (particularly no intensive care) as they were mainly an orthopaedic and minor procedure facility really.  He otherwise in good health and was rated suitable and had his joint done very successfully, but had he been in poorer general health, he would have been done (privately) in an NHS hospital.

[Dave-G]

I think most of us on here are realists who naturally distance as we have been advised/required to.

Problem is there are millions of younger people who rebel at almost anything that sounds like advice who need to be treated like children and there are people who seemingly HAVE to be seen to attend prayers in a mosque.

We are being treated as if we are all in need of compliance in order to avoid the NHS crashing. Let's also not forget the NHS is 'free' and being burdened by people who have come here to exploit it.

[Vince Green]

18 hours ago, AVB said:

That’s not a common theme across the whole of England though. I read yesterday that only four hospitals in England had more people in them compared to last year. In total 87.7% utilisation vs 94.9% last year 

The trouble is once you have one covid patient on a ward you can't put anyone else on it. So yes there are empty beds but that doesn't reflect need.

My friend has has a serious cancer operation two weeks ago, but was sent home almost immediately. In normal times he would still be in there.

[AVB]

Following on from the post 

23 hours ago, Mice! said:

It's a common theme in the Northwest,  during the first lockdown we weren't really affected,  it was a southern thing, this time around we are being affected,  hense the tiers. 

I've done very little different this year, still had a holiday,  still been at work, just haven't had many meals out or played rugby,  probably why I don't get the whole economy is going down the pan. 

Everywhere I drive there is building work going on, cars on the roads going somewhere,  lorries delivering things, it doesn't look like a scene from mad max.

Graph from FT showing industry sectors most at risk 

[Mice!]

11 minutes ago, AVB said:

Following on from the post 

Graph from FT showing industry sectors most at risk 

I honestly don't understand that graph, not sure what the scale is and the downside/upside isn't that different? I thought were meant to be terrible,  how can say food and accommodation have an upside at the moment?

[AVB]

4 minutes ago, Mice! said:

I honestly don't understand that graph, not sure what the scale is and the downside/upside isn't that different? I thought were meant to be terrible,  how can say food and accommodation have an upside at the moment?

Best case/worst case. Best case 26% of accommodation and food business will become distressed. Worse case it’s 30%+

[Mice!]

16 minutes ago, AVB said:

Best case/worst case. Best case 26% of accommodation and food business will become distressed. Worse case it’s 30%+

Makes more sense now, it's bad or worse.

But I don't see that graph as being that bad, yes people are being affected but you take out the bigger 4 and it's now the mass doom and gloom people are saying is coming, and as soon as the pubs/ hotels and theatres can open they will be packed.

 

[AVB]

3 minutes ago, Mice! said:

Makes more sense now, it's bad or worse.

But I don't see that graph as being that bad, yes people are being affected but you take out the bigger 4 and it's now the mass doom and gloom people are saying is coming, and as soon as the pubs/ hotels and theatres can open they will be packed.

 

This is companies that were previously viable so not the Debenhams of this world. And then for food and accommodation as an example 30% of them will be worth nothing even after one year. If you don’t think that’s bad then I wouldn’t like to see something that you felt was bad! 

[Mice!]

7 hours ago, AVB said:

This is companies that were previously viable so not the Debenhams of this world. And then for food and accommodation as an example 30% of them will be worth nothing even after one year. If you don’t think that’s bad then I wouldn’t like to see something that you felt was bad! 

That's why I said if you take out the bigger 4 it doesn't look that bad, I know a big local pub has closed because they said it was unviable even if things went back to normal and stayed that way, many other pubs before this were always closing and reopening a few months later so I'm sure a large % of these types of pub will be in that 30%

We won't know till next year how things will go until the vaccine is rolled out. 

[Mungler]

It’s the ‘knock ons’ that’s not shown in those graphs. The fifty something year olds who have worked in those market sectors all their lives and who now have zero chance of being re-employed in those sectors or arguably anywhere else. They will now be drawing state assistance for the rest of their lives and of course there’s an economic impact in that through taxation as well as a physical and mental impact; many will give up on life.

Then there’s all those people in those sectors (and connected in the supply chain to those sectors) who will take a ‘knock’ and will be placed under severe economic distress.

One of my clients works in the retail sign sector and they are owed a small fortune by a number of previously viable retail chains who have gone pop. They will not get paid what they are owed.

It’s not just that they won’t get paid for the signs they put up, it’s that they paid out their own money to their staff to put those signs up and that they still owe their material suppliers for the materials, fixtures and fittings that went into the manufacture of those signs. In short they are losing at both ends. With those financial constraints the business will shrink if not ultimately fail, staff will be laid off and so on.

Now look at the circulation of money - no one in or connected to this / these sector(s) will be buying that new car, moving house, having that new kitchen, going on holiday or even having that decent Xmas they normally have etc.

It’s beyond dreadful.

At the start of this a guy I follow on Facey (who happens to be a retired economist with diabetes said):

1. You can’t stop this virus, it’s a virus and everyone will be exposed to it / get it

2. the at risk should isolate (he completely cut himself off)

3. Everyone else must keep working

4. The negative economic impact of the virus (and poverty) will kill far more than the virus and will ruin far more lives.

5. The only way out is everyone who can get it and survive does get it and we get herd immunity or there is a vaccine which everyone has to take 

Where the government have gone wrong is that they have overdone ‘the fear’ egged on by a willing media and a weak opposition. We were never told or pushed the message that if you’re under 50 and otherwise healthy you will survive the virus. Paying fit people under 50 to stay at home and not work is just ridiculous.
 

Edited December 3, 2020 by Mungler

[Mungler]

21 minutes ago, Mice! said:

That's why I said if you take out the bigger 4 it doesn't look that bad, I know a big local pub has closed because they said it was unviable even if things went back to normal and stayed that way, many other pubs before this were always closing and reopening a few months later so I'm sure a large % of these types of pub will be in that 30%

We won't know till next year how things will go until the vaccine is rolled out. 

Even on that narrow example, if you factor in that in a depressed economy / depressed entertainment sector, you will find that there will be no one willing to find / risk having another go at running that pub and no bank will lend / finance into that sector and so everything dies on the vine.

Everyone connected into the supply chain to that single pub will feel it right the way through to the local window cleaner who loses a customer.

[Yellow Bear]

30 minutes ago, Mice! said:

That's why I said if you take out the bigger 4 it doesn't look that bad, I know a big local pub has closed because they said it was unviable even if things went back to normal and stayed that way, many other pubs before this were always closing and reopening a few months later so I'm sure a large % of these types of pub will be in that 30%

We won't know till next year how things will go until the vaccine is rolled out. 

You should also note that this is not just UK but 14counties in Europe. I suspect some mainland Europe countries are about to take a massive hit tourist wise.

[Mice!]

1 minute ago, Mungler said:

Even on that narrow example, if you factor in that in a depressed economy / depressed entertainment sector, you will find that there will be no one willing to find / risk having another go at running that pub and no bank will lend / finance into that sector and so everything dies on the vine.

Everyone connected into the supply chain to that single pub will feel it right the way through to the local window cleaner who loses a customer.

I'm sure there are many similar examples across the country,  I'll be very surprised if the pub I'm talking about doesn't reopen,  it's got a great location and next to spoons is probably the biggest pub in town, but I've obviously no idea how well they were doing before all this kicked off, and being a big pub I'd expect the overheads to be much higher.

I'm also sure that the supply chain is already struggling,  but outside of big cities pubs were already struggling and covid is probably the final straw. 

Once the vaccine has been rolled out and is hopefully successful then people will want to do what they did before,  things will pick up.

[Mungler]

14 minutes ago, Mice! said:

I'm sure there are many similar examples across the country,  I'll be very surprised if the pub I'm talking about doesn't reopen,  it's got a great location and next to spoons is probably the biggest pub in town, but I've obviously no idea how well they were doing before all this kicked off, and being a big pub I'd expect the overheads to be much higher.

I'm also sure that the supply chain is already struggling,  but outside of big cities pubs were already struggling and covid is probably the final straw. 

Once the vaccine has been rolled out and is hopefully successful then people will want to do what they did before,  things will pick up.

Keep us posted. My money is on no one will punt on a failed pub in this market place.

Only yesterday I had a client phone me - he established a large pub serving food some years ago, it was a roaring success, he bought the freehold and sold the business on with a long lease to new purchasers (his retirement and pension). They have stopped paying rent and now I’m going to be going after the personal guarantors under that lease. I asked the client that if he had to take the premises back, what could he do with it? Not a happy conversation. 
 

 

 

Edited December 3, 2020 by Mungler

[39TDS]

My business supplies to farm shops and also to pubs, coffee shops etc. While the first lockdown hit pub sales hard there was a massive rush when they opened up again and steady trade after that. I put that down to the good weather we enjoyed at the time.

Farm shops went nuts in the first lockdown as people avoided supermarkets, most of my customers told me trade had quadrupled. I couldn't keep up with sales and ran out of product.

During this lockdown sales to pubs are nil and not much of a rush as they reopen, in fact sales have so far only just gone to normal if that. Farm shop sales haven't changed much this time around, presumably because people have got used to supermarket shopping wearing a mask etc. Pubs are on cash on delivery only and not just me doing that, good luck to them but I am very glad I don't own a pub. My feeling is there is much worse to come (pretty obvious really) it is going to be a long winter for a lot of pubs and many won't survive.

On the flip side, one pub tells me their takeaway sales have meant even though there's nobody in the pub they are making more money than when it was open and paying all the staff. I doubt the staff are so pleased though.

[Scully]

We’re in Tier 2, and our local pub isn’t reopening. They say it’s not viable even though they do a roaring trade via food. 
The thing is that once you’ve finished your meal you have to leave, whereas most folk stick around having a few drinks and mixing with the regulars who now won’t be able to come in to drink only.

They’ll continue to serve takeaway food from their catering van in the car park, which also means they can run a limited kitchen and keep some of their staff working. 

[Vince Green]

Pubs are doing beans on toast for £1.50 to get round the meal requirement so my friend told me last week

[discobob]

1 hour ago, Vince Green said:

Pubs are doing beans on toast for £1.50 to get round the meal requirement so my friend told me last week

a sip and then a bean - you could be legless by the time you got to the toast!!! I would like to add that this is only until Friday in Wales when new rules come into play

Pubs can open but can't serve alchohol (until 6pm)

Florists can open but can't sell flowers

Clothes shops can open but can't sell clothes

Only the first one is true but I wouldn't put anything past drakeford

[Mice!]

I'll put this here, I'm getting my lads hair cut and another young bloke late teens early 20s has just come in, needs his hair cut as he's going to Bowness for a meal tonight so from tier 3 to tier 2, what's people's thoughts on that?

And there is no chance he is having the vaccine. 

[JohnfromUK]

1 minute ago, Mice! said:

what's people's thoughts on that?

My immediate thoughts are;

1. You see pictures of "the young" gathering in city centres etc. (recently Liverpool post easing where there was 'a massive party') - so not surprised
2. It is against the law, but by and large the law is voluntary as there is little enforcement/chance of getting caught
3. It just reconfirms my 'choice' to stay as isolated' as I can and avoid these others who take risks (even if they are low for them, such as the young)

The best way to stay safe is to look after yourself - and that probably means doing as much isolating/distancing as you reasonably can consistent with what has to be done in life.