Missing dog walker Nicola Bulley

[JohnfromUK]

4 minutes ago, ditchman said:

how does a nearly fully submerged body negociate/elevates itself over a weir that has been mentioned ??

I can't answer your question - but I should have thought that an experiment with a suitably weighted dummy in similar waterlogged clothes (though a bit ghoulish) might be a useful thing to do to help guide on what may/may not have been possible.

[ditchman]

1 minute ago, JohnfromUK said:

I can't answer your question - but I should have thought that an experiment with a suitably weighted dummy in similar waterlogged clothes (though a bit ghoulish) might be a useful thing to do to help guide on what may/may not have been possible.

exactly   been thinking that right from the beginning..........lets face it this investigation appears to have been a load of ****e.............can quite understand the anger of the family

[JohnfromUK]

Just now, ditchman said:

exactly   been thinking that right from the beginning..........lets face it this investigation appears to have been a load of ****e.............can quite understand the anger of the family

I think someone (possibly the underwater search man with the sonar kit?) did suggest it.  He has a very forward 'ultra confident and self promoting/publicising' personality that will not I suspect endear him to the rather pedestrian police.

[Munzy]

Interesting update from the police today that she was being treated as “vulnerable” and “high risk” following the initial missing person report.

The BBC states, “According to the College of Policing, the category is applied when the risk of a person coming to serious harm is assessed as very likely.”

This categorisation was based on information the husband gave to the police apparently.

[Munzy]

Just realised @Lloyd90 posted the same earlier.

Reason I find it interesting is it hints that the husband may have told the police about mental health issues or depression. If suicide was a possibility it’s interesting the husband remains so adamant she did not go into the river.

I also would think it strange that you would send emails, plan kids play-dates and join a virtual meeting minutes before ending your life.

[ditchman]

the unfortunate thing about this converluted case is that in a few years hence ...bloody channel 4 will make a docu' film about it........

great shame..

[Mungler]

If she was minded to top herself, I understand that the river in question is only a couple of feet deep at its edges in most parts and so it would be a bit hit and miss and a struggle to get the job done. 

There’s quite a bit published on line about the stats that sit behind suicides - the yank studies all have firearms as the means for all ages and sexes. 

European study here  https://jech.bmj.com/content/62/6/545 And whilst the method changes with age, self drowning is rare.

You wouldn’t want to be on a downer / prescribed anti depressants because if you do go missing it seems the police get the green light not to bother with a proper investigation. 
.

edited : found the table 

Edited February 15, 2023 by Mungler

[Mungler]

And by gender by country, if she did top herself it’s 20-1 against that she drowned herself.

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[oldypigeonpopper]

Hello, I see there is more info , alcohol problem 🤔

[12gauge82]

13 minutes ago, Mungler said:

If she was minded to top herself, I understand that the river in question is only a couple of feet deep at its edges in most parts and so it would be a bit hit and miss and a struggle to get the job done. 

There’s quite a bit published on line about the stats that sit behind suicides - the yank studies all have firearms as the means for all ages and sexes. 

European study here  https://jech.bmj.com/content/62/6/545 And whilst the method changes with age, self drowning is rare.

You wouldn’t want to be on a downer / prescribed anti depressants because if you do go missing it seems the police get the green light not to bother with a proper investigation. 
.

edited : found the table 

I would suggest the stats for drowning would likely go through the roof in a town with a large river. Only a guess though. 

If she is dead, I just hope they can recover the body and give her family some closure as to what happened to her. 

[henry d]

13 minutes ago, Mungler said:

And by gender by country, if she did top herself it’s 20-1 against that she drowned herself.

.

I'm sure that those who are struggling with life don't go and look at the best or most used ways of killing themselves. I've seen many, only two were well thought out, one with helium as they had terminal illness, the other had a stomach full of sleeping pills, drove into a  large pillar but didn't get injured, so walked to a local bridge and jumped off after covering themselves with petrol from the can they brought and setting fire to themselves. If people are serious about killing themselves then they will just do it and common sense may not come into it. 

[Mungler]

I take the point about the poor soul not being in their right mind, but, on the stats drowning is the least likely option.

There was an interesting documentary on Netflix a few years back where they set a camera up on the Golden Gate Bridge for a period of time and then looked back into the lives of those who jumped. It was one of those things you watch that you can then never un-see. That documentary showed that of the people who did jump, the majority appeared to be at their happiest on the day in question. I digress. 

I wonder what the stats are about leaving a final note etc. 

Anyways, the situation to hand does provoke discussion - at work one of the other dog owners commented that they could never leave the dog wandering. Consensus view was it’s all still very odd. 
.

Edited February 15, 2023 by Mungler

[Rewulf]

53 minutes ago, henry d said:

If people are serious about killing themselves then they will just do it and common sense may not come into it. 

Although I don't have an an opinion in this particular case on what's happened, there is massive evidence of people planning on how they're going to do it. 

Buying a rope, travelling to a location, even buying pills or ordering poison over the Internet? 

So your comment is a bit puzzling? 

[chrisjpainter]

14 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

Although I don't have an an opinion in this particular case on what's happened, there is massive evidence of people planning on how they're going to do it. 

Buying a rope, travelling to a location, even buying pills or ordering poison over the Internet? 

So your comment is a bit puzzling? 

I see what you're saying, but planning in that sense isn't demonstrative of common sense; it's still the emotional side of the brain taking over. Common sense is perhaps not the way to think of it - more rationality based on an objective interpretation of the facts. For them, the logical part of the brain is functioning in a way, (a cliff is better than a first floor window, for example, or bleach is a nasty way to go, especially if it fails) but it's all driven by emotion and an inability or unwillingness to rationalise with everything, not just the part that fits their desire to die. 

[Mungler]

1 minute ago, chrisjpainter said:

I see what you're saying, but planning in that sense isn't demonstrative of common sense; it's still the emotional side of the brain taking over. Common sense is perhaps not the way to think of it - more rationality based on an objective interpretation of the facts. For them, the logical part of the brain is functioning in a way, (a cliff is better than a first floor window, for example, or bleach is a nasty way to go, especially if it fails) but it's all driven by emotion and an inability or unwillingness to rationalise with everything, not just the part that fits their desire to die. 

Unless jumping off a tall structure and doing something entirely definitive, I’d bet that the stats would show that unplanned suicide attempts are less likely to succeed or end clean. 

Father in law (now deceased) was a paramedic who had lots of stories about people jumping in front of trains and the surprising number that lived, but with fewer appendages. 

[Lloyd90]

3 minutes ago, Mungler said:

Unless jumping off a tall structure and doing something entirely definitive, I’d bet that the stats would show that unplanned suicide attempts are less likely to succeed or end clean. 

Father in law (now deceased) was a paramedic who had lots of stories about people jumping in front of trains and the surprising number that lived, but with fewer appendages. 

As someone who works in that industry, we have a massive amount of “time wasters” for lack of a better word. 
 

The people with the extensive ‘poor me’ notes, and elaborate plans that are meant to be interrupted (along with them telling everyone “don’t come and stop me!”, whilst waiting for people to come and stop them … giving the Police their exact location etc … are noted as a “cry for help” … but are usually people who aren’t serious about taking their life… 

 

 

Very rarely we have someone with serious intent to end their life. 

They don’t make a big fuss about it. 

They don’t leave lengthy notes about why and what they did. 
 

They just do it, often suddenly, without notice, in unexplained and unsuspected ways. 
 

A few weeks back we had a school girl on the walk home, she briefly handed her backpack to her friend, and a split second later rolled over the barrier of a motorway bridge… no history or involvement with services or anything else. Hit home hard that one . 

[chrisjpainter]

1 minute ago, Mungler said:

Unless jumping off a tall structure and doing something entirely definitive, I’d bet that the stats would show that unplanned suicide attempts are less likely to succeed or end clean. 

Father in law (now deceased) was a paramedic who had lots of stories about people jumping in front of trains and the surprising number that lived, but with fewer appendages. 

It wouldn't surprise me. I'd also bet there's a correlation between gender and unplanned suicide attempts. More men commit suicide than women, but women are much more likely to attempt suicide. The methods favoured by men tend to be more successful. 55% of male suicide comes from hanging. 41% of females comes from drug causes, but drug use is notoriously unpredictable and gives life-savers more chance to work on them, so I'd bet the survival rate from hanging is massively lower than that of drugs-taking. 

[TIGHTCHOKE]

11 hours ago, Mungler said:

You wouldn’t want to be on a downer / prescribed anti depressants because if you do go missing it seems the police get the green light not to bother with a proper investigation. 

Starting to look that way!     

[Mungler]

Interesting discussion on the news today - Why did the police release the information that she had a problem with alcohol and was struggling with the menopause? 

I don’t see how that information helps their investigation or anyone at all (least of all the family) - indeed it can make only reduce effort from within the police and the general public ‘ah, mental health issues, we might as well call it suicide now, give up on the half ***** investigation and call it a day’.

This is all very odd. 

[TIGHTCHOKE]

As I said earlier, I reckon some senior heads will roll!

[Lloyd90]

10 minutes ago, Mungler said:

Interesting discussion on the news today - Why did the police release the information that she had a problem with alcohol and was struggling with the menopause? 

I don’t see how that information helps their investigation or anyone at all (least of all the family) - indeed it can make only reduce effort from within the police and the general public ‘ah, mental health issues, we might as well call it suicide now, give up on the half ***** investigation and call it a day’.

This is all very odd. 

They released it as it was very clear the Police are not impressed with the criticism from the Media and the totally un evidenced conspiracy theories that are coming out about her … 

 

The lead investigator had to note that she found nothing suspicious about a red van driving on a road … or fishermen being next to a river … 

 

They also noted the case for some reason is getting a massive amount of media attention and it’s particularly unhelpful. 

[JohnfromUK]

8 minutes ago, Mungler said:

Why did the police release the information .....

One point is that they didn't (apparently) release it (or any reference to 'person of significant concern') to the specialist dive team.  The leader there says it would have made a difference to both how and where he searched - and whether she might have remained near where she entered (as the river is shallow unless you move away from the banks), or travelled further downstream - which would need the greater depth and current flow in the centre.

[Mungler]

27 minutes ago, Lloyd90 said:

They released it as it was very clear the Police are not impressed with the criticism from the Media and the totally un evidenced conspiracy theories that are coming out about her … 

 

The lead investigator had to note that she found nothing suspicious about a red van driving on a road … or fishermen being next to a river … 

 

They also noted the case for some reason is getting a massive amount of media attention and it’s particularly unhelpful. 

‘Un-evidenced’

There’s no evidence. Only theories, on all sides.

[Westley]

People go missing on a daily basis, how many of the cases are investigated to the extreme that this case has been   ?

The Police have, I feel, been hampered by public speculation and interference, both physically and on 'Social Media' from the start and were forced into clarifying the term 'Vulnerable' yesterday,  by disclosing the problems the missing person was having. I do believe that this would NOT have been done without Family consultation. Of course the Police are once again being vilified for releasing this information and all of the 'experts' are coming out of the woodwork to criticise their actions.

I wonder if THIS will set a presedence for future enquiries and the massive drain on Police resources it has been.

[Mungler]

1 minute ago, Westley said:

People go missing on a daily basis, how many of the cases are investigated to the extreme that this case has been   ?

The Police have, I feel, been hampered by public speculation and interference, both physically and on 'Social Media' from the start and were forced into clarifying the term 'Vulnerable' yesterday,  by disclosing the problems the missing person was having. I do believe that this would NOT have been done without Family consultation. Of course the Police are once again being vilified for releasing this information and all of the 'experts' are coming out of the woodwork to criticise their actions.

I wonder if THIS will set a presedence for future enquiries and the massive drain on Police resources it has been.

Really?

Most people who do go missing don’t go missing still connected to a work conference call….

But you’re right, they probably shouldn’t bother investigating at all and what investigation they do do should just go through the motions.