Economic meltdown?

[Rewulf]

Both the FTSE 100 and 250 are the highest they have been for 18 months.

So ,despite the doom mongers still banging on about downturns and recession,where is the promised post Brexit financial apocalypse ?

[ShootingEgg]

Dont forget, we are still part of the EU so at the moment they will say thats why its not happening..

 

Its hard to say if any of the financial wobbles were infact a direct result of the vote.

[panoma1]

If I recall correctly immediate economic Armageddon and world war three was forecast.......if the country chose to leave the EU? Not maybe sometime after! The only economic danger I see is in the future if our negotiators/ politicians screw up the terms of our Brexit.....that will not be because of Brexit it will be because of incompetence!

 

As for world war three that might not be as far fetched as we thought....if things escalate between Russia and the UN and USA in Syria?

[Vince Green]

There were some pretty big financial highs and lows in past decades anyway. Being part of the EU did nothing to shield us from them. One of the main reasons for my wanting to leave the EU was the belief that the real financial meltdown was coming in Europe soon and we need to be out before it hit.

 

Even so we won't escape entirely from a European collapse and every remainer will be saying "told you so" with that smug self satisfied attitude they seem to exude

[Vince Green]

where is the promised post Brexit financial apocalypse ?

Come to think of it, where is George Osbourn?

Edited September 21, 2016 by Vince Green

[TIGHTCHOKE]

If I recall correctly immediate economic Armageddon and world war three was forecast.......if the country chose to leave the EU? Not maybe sometime after! The only economic danger I see is in the future if our negotiators/ politicians screw up the terms of our Brexit.....that will not be because of Brexit it will be because of incompetence!

 

As for world war three that might not be as far fetched as we thought....if things escalate between Russia and the UN and USA in Syria?

 

That may well be the case but it is nothing to do with the "Brexit" vote.

[Yellow Bear]

Come to think of it, where is George Osbourn?

Digging himself a cushy job with the "northern powerhouse" for when his constituency disappears

[panoma1]

That may well be the case but it is nothing to do with the "Brexit" vote.

Yep! Nothing to do with the price of fish either! Lol!

[four-wheel-drive]

As I see it nothing has happened and will not for at least another two years so only when we do or should I say if we do leave will we find out if it was a good decision or not my only worry is that by leaving the EU we will end up getting even more into Americas pocket and get dragged in to even more pointless wars.

[krugerandsmith]

If I recall correctly immediate economic Armageddon and world war three was forecast.......if the country chose to leave the EU? Not maybe sometime after! The only economic danger I see is in the future if our negotiators/ politicians screw up the terms of our Brexit.....that will not be because of Brexit it will be because of incompetence!

 

As for world war three that might not be as far fetched as we thought....if things escalate between Russia and the UN and USA in Syria?

 

 

You forgot about the plague of boils and frogs.

[Adge Cutler]

I don't think anything will change in the long run ... 2 steps forward one back ... There's no way the EU is going to afford us favourable leaving terms on trade..and if we want to trade with Europe we will need to embrace a unilateral immigration policy... its unavoidable.

 

10 years down the line we will be where we were 15 years ago.

 

The construction industry is the key economic indicator in this country not the FTSE 100 or 250 and there are signs of slowing output and cancelled delivery. Honda, BMW and Nissan yet to make a statement about future investment so don't shout too soon.

 

At least the Chinese and French have put their faith in our Nuclear Industry and its allied Contractors However..

Edited September 21, 2016 by Adge Cutler

[panoma1]

You forgot about the plague of boils and frogs.

No I didn't, but I left it out because I was sure someone would pick me up on it, on the basis that the information would have nothing to do with Brexit! Lol!

[Vince Green]

As we buy a lot more from Europe than they buy from us, and the figures are becoming more adverse year on year the question of a trade agreement becomes more like a red herring than something we should worry about.

 

We don't see many Brits going to work in Poland or Rumania so no worries there either

 

In fact, what do we have to worry about?

[AVB]

As we buy a lot more from Europe than they buy from us, and the figures are becoming more adverse year on year the question of a trade agreement becomes more like a red herring than something we should worry about.

 

We don't see many Brits going to work in Poland or Rumania so no worries there either

 

In fact, what do we have to worry about?

Financial services. Like it or not our FS 'industry' powers the economy nowadays.

[clakk]

Honda have already made a statement ,a very big statement £200 million into Swindon to build cars for the U.S market and are here to stay.J.L.R are spending 400 million doubling the size of their engine plant as the new Land Rover/Range Rover and Jag 4x4,s are selling like hot cakes around the world.Toyota are sitting on the fence because nobody knows which way the Brexit Deal will go its all hot air and so called specialist,s mmm let me see oh yes guessing .B.M.W are already tendering for suppliers for the new model to be built in England .The Aussies,Chinese and various country,s want a trade deal with us as it,s only the E.Useless that,s stopping it and as the much vaunted EU /USA trade deal just went down the pan the North American trade zone is looking for people to deal with .FS is a tired shadow post bank collapse and needs a kick in the pants to stop down talking a manufacturing boom that is going on right now.

[Vince Green]

Financial services. Like it or not our FS 'industry' powers the economy nowadays.

Yes I agree but our FS business is global and if anything was under threat from the EU because the Germans had several times tried to suggest regulations and transaction tariffs. These attempts could only really be interpreted as malicious or envy since they would serve no purpose except to undermine the City in favour of Frankfurt.

 

I don't think we want to be in the EU if they are going to behave like that, it shows them for what they really are

[MrM]

As we buy a lot more from Europe than they buy from us, and the figures are becoming more adverse year on year the question of a trade agreement becomes more like a red herring than something we should worry about.

 

We don't see many Brits going to work in Poland or Rumania so no worries there either

 

In fact, what do we have to worry about?

 

As an overall figure yes, but when you break it down country by country, unfortunately it would hurt us far more than each individual EU state - for us its maybe 40% of our net exports, for each individual EU country its around 5% of theirs.

Edited September 22, 2016 by MrM

[silver pigeon69]

As an overall figure yes, but when you break it down country by country, unfortunately it would hurt us far more than each individual EU state - for us its maybe 40% of our net exports, for each individual EU country its around 5% of theirs.

 

Do Germany only export 5% of their exports to the uk? I thought we took over 20% of their car exports alone??

 

Also we import 10 times more from Europe than export, so surely overall any trade Tax would hurt/affect EU 10times more? We could subsidise our exports with the import taxes we raise and still have 9 times more to go on NHS, Police etc. Ok, German cars, French wine etc may be more expensive but then there are alternatives and this would make our homegrown products more attractive.

Edited September 22, 2016 by silver pigeon69

[AVB]

According to Wikipedia Germany exports 7% to the U.K.

[Rewulf]

I don't think anything will change in the long run ... 2 steps forward one back ... There's no way the EU is going to afford us favourable leaving terms on trade..and if we want to trade with Europe we will need to embrace a unilateral immigration policy... its unavoidable.

 

2 steps forward and 1 step back is still progress,more than can be said for the majority of EU countries.

The EU was never going to offer favorable terms anyway was it ? Any incentive to leaving is going to be a bad thing for them,so as not to cause other countries to leave too.

Prepare for hard Brexit because of this.

 

10 years down the line we will be where we were 15 years ago.

 

Why ?

 

The construction industry is the key economic indicator in this country not the FTSE 100 or 250 and there are signs of slowing output and cancelled delivery. Honda, BMW and Nissan yet to make a statement about future investment so don't shout too soon.

 

The construction industry seems pretty healthy to me,the government is asking them to build more houses,and they are ,on their terms and where THEY want to build them,green belt laws chucked out the window ect.

As far as car manufacture goes ,why would Japanese manufacturers worry about whether we are part of the EU or not,they have heavily invested in British plants,it would make no sense to relocate,unless they were going to 'cheaper' EU countries ,and they could do that anyway.

 

At least the Chinese and French have put their faith in our Nuclear Industry and its allied Contractors However..

Its not 'our' nuclear industry ,its theirs.

Using a new type of reactor that has not been seen working properly yet,charging more per unit plus inflation than any other power source,and destined for late delivery,cost overruns and a whole load of enviromental protests.

Hardly a victory for us in my opinion.

[old man]

 

 

You forgot about the plague of boils and frogs.

Locusts too?

[Vince Green]

We should consider labour as an import, as in people coming to work here and then taking their earnings home. The official figures don't take this into account because I suspect they can't quantify it.

I have no idea what the figure is either , but its significant. Britain is Poland's biggest employer, and that's just Poland, without all the others.

[MrM]

Do Germany only export 5% of their exports to the uk? I thought we took over 20% of their car exports alone??

 

Also we import 10 times more from Europe than export, so surely overall any trade Tax would hurt/affect EU 10times more? We could subsidise our exports with the import taxes we raise and still have 9 times more to go on NHS, Police etc. Ok, German cars, French wine etc may be more expensive but then there are alternatives and this would make our homegrown products more attractive.

We exported roughly £200bn to EU in 2015 - imported £290bn. It equates to roughly 40% of our export business, but only about 17-20% of the total of the rest of EU export's business combined - However if you did break it down by country, then yes we import more from Germany than we export there - but we have to look at the whole of the EU market as one for the time being.

 

I think the point though is that in the long term (6-10 years) we will be able to replace this with better trade deals with the likes of Australia and China (Australia have said this is the time scale they anticipate, so most likely will be same with others). The short term (next 2 years) we are still in EU and should be fine. Its the years in-between that's what will need careful managing and why T'May is being cautious with Brussels. The issue would be how much of that export business would be lost with trade tariffs applied and how it would affect UK industry.

Edited September 22, 2016 by MrM

[NickS]

We are in a bit of a state of limbo at the moment. I hope that those responsible for the negotiations are up to the job and don't just look out for the wealthy. Protecting the interests of ordinary working people has never been high on the political agenda and I hope you will forgive my scepticism that it will be now. I realise that an economic downturn affects us all but a small change has a much greater effect on those on low, fixed incomes.

[silver pigeon69]

We exported roughly £200bn to EU in 2015 - imported £290bn. It equates to roughly 40% of our export business, but only about 17-20% of the total of the rest of EU export's business combined - However if you did break it down by country, then yes we import more from Germany than we export there - but we have to look at the whole of the EU market as one for the time being.

 

I think the point though is that in the long term (6-10 years) we will be able to replace this with better trade deals with the likes of Australia and China (Australia have said this is the time scale they anticipate, so most likely will be same with others). The short term (next 2 years) we are still in EU and should be fine. Its the years in-between that's what will need careful managing and why T'May is being cautious with Brussels. The issue would be how much of that export business would be lost with trade tariffs applied and how it would affect UK industry.

Thanks, i stand corrected! Its so hard to find factual, correct figures. Most of them are manipulated, to the providers interest.