Brexit - merged threads

[Newbie to this]

I  don't think he ever was an MP. He was leader of UKIP but don't think he ever won a seat.

He is an MEP, thankfully.

[12gauge82]

2 hours ago, JohnfromUK said:

 

I think he will split the Brexit vote - he has support from traditional Labour voters as well.  But the ONLY hope of Brexit is from a Brexit government ...... and UKIP do not have any chance of obtaining any significant number of MPs.  ANY hung Parliament will need a coalition/deal, and the only significant partners are SNP and Lib Dem, both of whom are 100% remainers.

The Tory party, in some guise is the only real party capable of forming a government that has a chance of carrying out a (possibly flaky) Brexit.  There is no indication that Labour would get a decent majority (if they did it would be a disaster for other reasons), and with a small majority, or as the largest single party, there is no other Brexit supporting party with which to form a coalition.  (The DUP wouldn't touch Corbyn with a bargepole after his Jetty Adams sympathies in Northern Ireland)

 

The trouble with UKIP is that they are basically a 'one man band', Nigel Farage.  I can't think of ANY other candidate of any consequence.

I think your right, however if the conservatives do not deliver the brexit that I voted for, i can honestly say they will never see another vote from me, regardless of what the alternatives are, and I know alot of people who feel the same, I think Mrs May has drastically underestimated the feeling on this.

[Newbie to this]

9 minutes ago, 12gauge82 said:

I think your right, however if the conservatives do not deliver the brexit that I voted for, i can honestly say they will never see another vote from me, regardless of what the alternatives are, and I know alot of people who feel the same, I think Mrs May has drastically underestimated the feeling on this.

I've Emailed my MP at various stages during May's so called negotiation plans to tell him the exact same thing. Conservatives will never get my vote again if they don’t deliver what was promised, a complete withdrawal from the EU.

[JohnfromUK]

22 minutes ago, Newbie to this said:

if they don’t deliver what was promised, a complete withdrawal from the EU.

The problem is (and it was caused by Mrs May's complete stupidity at the last election) - they have no majority, and with a few very disloyal members of her own party - she has her hands tied.  Owing to the wretched Gina Miller woman - she has to get more through Parliament.

It is farcical how the whole thing can get held up and derailed by the single challenge by Gina Miller, but she initiated (and won) the 2016 R v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union court case against the British government over its authority to implement Brexit without approval from Parliament. - and completely tied the governments hands.  That should never have been allowed, but that is what our laws DO allow.

So - to have any Brexit, Parliament has to pass it by a majority ......... a BIG BIG problem when there aren't a majority of MPs for Brexit.  And that in a nutshell is where we are.

Edited August 19, 2018 by JohnfromUK

[12gauge82]

2 hours ago, JohnfromUK said:

The problem is (and it was caused by Mrs May's complete stupidity at the last election) - they have no majority, and with a few very disloyal members of her own party - she has her hands tied.  Owing to the wretched Gina Miller woman - she has to get more through Parliament.

It is farcical how the whole thing can get held up and derailed by the single challenge by Gina Miller, but she initiated (and won) the 2016 R v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union court case against the British government over its authority to implement Brexit without approval from Parliament. - and completely tied the governments hands.  That should never have been allowed, but that is what our laws DO allow.

So - to have any Brexit, Parliament has to pass it by a majority ......... a BIG BIG problem when there aren't a majority of MPs for Brexit.  And that in a nutshell is where we are.

I understand the predicament but I'd rather see the monster raving Looney party win the next election than support a party that won't see a national referendum through, it would mean I was living under a dictatorship if the government refused to carry out the will of it's people.

[Mice!]

and if people don't vote conservative because they don't like how brexit went, then ( shudder) labour gets in with all the false promises then what???

[JohnfromUK]

15 minutes ago, Mice! said:

and if people don't vote conservative because they don't like how brexit went, then ( shudder) labour gets in with all the false promises then what???

Quite

[JohnfromUK]

22 minutes ago, 12gauge82 said:

I understand the predicament but I'd rather see the monster raving Looney party win the next election than support a party that won't see a national referendum through, it would mean I was living under a dictatorship if the government refused to carry out the will of it's people.

As stated in my previous posts, there are 4 likely outcomes at the nest general election;

1. Tory majority
2. Labour majority
3. Tory minority with deal/coalition
4. Labour minority with deal/coalition

Realistically, option 4 would be with SNP/LibDem - who are both anti Brexit, so no Brexit.

Option 3 would be as now - result, possible full Brexit (no divorce bill, but probable WTO tariffs and some border issues), or possible 'soft' brexit (i.e. some compromises and a (BIG) divorce bill, but easier cross border trade). 

Option 2 not clear, but unlikely to be different to 3 in Brexit terms, but MUCH worse in terms of a competitive economy post Brexit

Option 1 - I think the best option for a strong lean and agile economy post whatever Brexit we achieve.

NO other (credibly electable) party would see a so called hard Brexit through without attempting a deal.  I think that Labour would do an even softer deal than May.

 

[Gordon R]

The next general election is scheduled to be 5.5.2022. We are out of the EU on 29.3.2019.

The exit comes three years before any election, so the above options don't apply.

[12gauge82]

26 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

As stated in my previous posts, there are 4 likely outcomes at the nest general election;

1. Tory majority
2. Labour majority
3. Tory minority with deal/coalition
4. Labour minority with deal/coalition

Realistically, option 4 would be with SNP/LibDem - who are both anti Brexit, so no Brexit.

Option 3 would be as now - result, possible full Brexit (no divorce bill, but probable WTO tariffs and some border issues), or possible 'soft' brexit (i.e. some compromises and a (BIG) divorce bill, but easier cross border trade). 

Option 2 not clear, but unlikely to be different to 3 in Brexit terms, but MUCH worse in terms of a competitive economy post Brexit

Option 1 - I think the best option for a strong lean and agile economy post whatever Brexit we achieve.

NO other (credibly electable) party would see a so called hard Brexit through without attempting a deal.  I think that Labour would do an even softer deal than May.

 

I think your above options would underestimate how much anger the country would feel if we don't get the brexit that was voted for, I think there would be some fairly unusual voting going on.

[old man]

8 hours ago, panoma1 said:

Yes the people of the UK voted out, In a democratically held nationwide vote! It is the responsibility of the government to honour that decision and look after the best interests of the people of the UK in exiting the EU! Its the responsibility of the political opposition party's and everyone in the UK to stand behind and support that decision! 

Not to screw everything up for personal or political gain or because they don't agree with the result of a democratic nationwide vote! Those that do are nothing more than traitors!

Absolutely, I can't remember the last time any government introduced any policies that were of benefit to the population at large.

Always increasing the wealth and influence of their unseen backers via the meddling influence of not very civil servants?

[pinfireman]

43 minutes ago, Gordon R said:

The next general election is scheduled to be 5.5.2022. We are out of the EU on 29.3.2019.

The exit comes three years before any election, so the above options don't apply.

Correct!

[pinfireman]

There seems to be some confusion as to what will happen at the next General Election vis-a-vis UKIP. As a UKIP voter for 21 years, I have seen the rise and fall of the Party. It,s greatest success was 2015, when 4.5 MILLION people voted UKIP.  With our First Past The Post system, it meant no MPs....even though we beat Limp?Dumbs into fourth place (and they had MPs elected!).  So many posters tend to write off UKIP as a Parliamentary force, and they are probably right to do so.....However..............if we do not get a clean OUT Brexit, UKIP voters will find themselves in a position of some importance. It usually only takes a swing of less than 2% to change a government. 4.5 million voters are far more than 2% of the vote. The way forward for UKIP in 2022 is quite simple. It does NOT put up candidates (no point if they cannot get elected) but instead votes tactically. Brexiteer sitting MPs get the UKIP vote transferred to them, Remoaner MPs and candidates get the UKIP vote switched to their main opposition!  The 50 most marginal seats (mostly Remoaners) have less than a 2,000 majority, and that is less than 2% of the vote in their constituencies....it will be a bloodbath.

Don,t think this is just supposition, it,s already being discussed and planned for....and as to wether we geta Corbyn government, who cares? 5 years at most of a Lefty numpty, or another 45 years of being a vassal state under the (failing) EU !

Edited August 19, 2018 by pinfireman

[12gauge82]

2 minutes ago, pinfireman said:

There seems to be some confusion as to what will happen at the next General Election vis-a-vis UKIP. As a UKIP voter for 21 years, I have seen the rise and fall of the Party. It,s greatest success was 2015, when 4.5 MILLION people voted UKIP.  With our First Past The Post system, it meant no MPs....even though we beat Limp?Dumbs into fourth place (and they had MPs elected!).  So many posters tend to write off UKIP as a Parliamentary force, and they are probably right to do so.....However..............if we do not get a clean OUT Brexit, UKIP voters will find themselves in a position of some importance. It usually only takes a swing of less than 2% to change a government. 4.5 million voters are far more than 2% of the vote. The way forward for UKIP in 2022 is quite simple. It does NOT put up candidates (no point if they cannot get elected) but instead votes tactically. Brexiteer sitting MPs get the UKIP vote transferred to them, Remoaner MPs and candidates get the UKIP vote switched to their main opposition!  The 50 most marginal seats (mostly Remoaners) have less than a 2,000 majority, and that is less than 2^ of the vote in their constituencies....it will be a bloodbath.

Don,t think this is just supposition, it,s already being discussed and planned for....and as to wether we geta Corbyn government, who cares? 5 years at most of a Lefty numpty, or another 45 years of being a vassal state under the (failing) EU !

Spot on.

[TriBsa]

1 hour ago, 12gauge82 said:

I think your above options would underestimate how much anger the country would feel if we don't get the brexit that was voted for, I think there would be some fairly unusual voting going on.

Exactly, the electorate isn't as dumb or compliant as politicians often assume. Brexit is a prime example of the electorate thinking for themselves. A betrayal of the democratic wish of the majority will not go down well. Also there can't be many Conservatives or Labour supporters that haven't noticed their parties seismic shift from their traditional beliefs and values. This alienation coupled with the disenfranchisement that a Brexit betrayal would bring would make the next general election hard to call. Perhaps we shall see a new political force tapping into this anger and desire for change. Many countries in Europe are seeing the rise of populist alternatives to the established major parties. Perhaps it is our turn next?

Edited August 19, 2018 by TriBsa

[pinfireman]

14 minutes ago, TriBsa said:

Exactly, the electorate isn't as dumb or compliant as politicians often assume. Brexit is a prime example of the electorate thinking for themselves. A betrayal of the democratic wish of the majority will not go down well. Also there can't be many Conservatives or Labour supporters that haven't noticed their parties seismic shift from their traditional beliefs and values. This alienation coupled with the disenfranchisement that a Brexit betrayal would bring would make the next general election hard to call. Perhaps we shall see a new political force tapping into this anger and desire for change. Many countries in Europe are seeling the rise of populist alternatives to the established major parties. Perhaps it is our turn next?

Good post! Having had a taste of electoral "freedom" I cannot see the public being happy about being shafted by the goverment!

[JohnfromUK]

1 hour ago, Gordon R said:

The next general election is scheduled to be 5.5.2022. We are out of the EU on 29.3.2019.

The exit comes three years before any election, so the above options don't apply.

But not if the government looses a vote of confidence ..... which would trigger an election.  That is a real risk with a minority government.

1 hour ago, 12gauge82 said:

I think there would be some fairly unusual voting going on.

I don't see how there can really be any outcome other than one of the above.  A UKIP majority just won't happen.  Any LibDem or Green option would be a remain option.

[Mice!]

2 hours ago, JohnfromUK said:

But not if the government looses a vote of confidence ..... which would trigger an election.  That is a real risk with a minority government.

I don't see how there can really be any outcome other than one of the above.  A UKIP majority just won't happen.  Any LibDem or Green option would be a remain option.

there wasnt a general election planned last time but TM thought she would have a landslide victory before running the worse campaign ever and winning almost by default thanks to the DUP, what's to say it won't happen again? If TM falls on her sword or gets pushed that could set things off again.

[Gordon R]

Having called a snap election and not got what they wanted, why would the Tories call another election before they needed to do? I really can't see them losing any vote of confidence.

[Mice!]

7 minutes ago, Gordon R said:

Having called a snap election and not got what they wanted, why would the Tories call another election before they needed to do? I really can't see them losing any vote of confidence.

I don't know what needs to happen for an unplanned election to happen, leadership battle? Major upheaval over brexit deal? 

[AVB]

11 hours ago, JohnfromUK said:

The problem is (and it was caused by Mrs May's complete stupidity at the last election) - they have no majority, and with a few very disloyal members of her own party - she has her hands tied.  Owing to the wretched Gina Miller woman - she has to get more through Parliament.

It is farcical how the whole thing can get held up and derailed by the single challenge by Gina Miller, but she initiated (and won) the 2016 R v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union court case against the British government over its authority to implement Brexit without approval from Parliament. - and completely tied the governments hands.  That should never have been allowed, but that is what our laws DO allow.

So - to have any Brexit, Parliament has to pass it by a majority ......... a BIG BIG problem when there aren't a majority of MPs for Brexit.  And that in a nutshell is where we are.

In a nutshell this. The Government can’t force through anything without it being approved by Parliament. 

What if, for example, Theresa May says “OK the only option is for a ‘Hard Brexit”” (which a lot of people on here want) but Parliament vote against it. Who do you blame? The Government, who in my example tried to get a hard Brexit, or the Conservative/Labour/Lib Dem/SNP/Green MP’s who voted against it? 

It that scenario who exactly would you vote for in the next Election? 

[JohnfromUK]

2 hours ago, AVB said:

In a nutshell this. The Government can’t force through anything without it being approved by Parliament. 

What if, for example, Theresa May says “OK the only option is for a ‘Hard Brexit”” (which a lot of people on here want) but Parliament vote against it. Who do you blame? The Government, who in my example tried to get a hard Brexit, or the Conservative/Labour/Lib Dem/SNP/Green MP’s who voted against it? 

It that scenario who exactly would you vote for in the next Election? 

That is exactly the problem.  Whatever deal/no deal she comes up with MUST be voted on and passed by Parliament.  If it doesn't ......... there is a vote of confidence ......... and then we are in the unknown.

[sportsbob]

2 hours ago, JohnfromUK said:

That is exactly the problem.  Whatever deal/no deal she comes up with MUST be voted on and passed by Parliament.  If it doesn't ......... there is a vote of confidence ......... and then we are in the unknown.

Do we not get a hard Brexit by default if there is no deal agreed ? and if so why would it need to go before parliament. 

[Uilleachan]

16 hours ago, JohnfromUK said:

The problem is (and it was caused by Mrs May's complete stupidity at the last election) - they have no majority, and with a few very disloyal members of her own party - she has her hands tied.  Owing to the wretched Gina Miller woman - she has to get more through Parliament.

It is farcical how the whole thing can get held up and derailed by the single challenge by Gina Miller, but she initiated (and won) the 2016 R v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union court case against the British government over its authority to implement Brexit without approval from Parliament. - and completely tied the governments hands.  That should never have been allowed, but that is what our laws DO allow.

So - to have any Brexit, Parliament has to pass it by a majority ......... a BIG BIG problem when there aren't a majority of MPs for Brexit.  And that in a nutshell is where we are.

The westminster parliament is sovereign, not the cabinet, not the PM. That principle is the foundation of the english bill of rights which in turn is a cornerstone of the UK constitution, another being the scottish claim of rights. To change that the treaty of union would need dissolving, i.e. that would involve dissolving the UK. 

Miller was never going to lose and the Government knew that, as did anyone with a grasp of what written constitution the UK has, the UK government opposition to Miller's case was sophistry and nothing more.

If someone was looking to attribute blame for the brexit debacle, they'd need to look elsewhere as Miller isn't to blame for any of it. 

  

[matone]

12 hours ago, TriBsa said:

Exactly, the electorate isn't as dumb or compliant as politicians often assume. Brexit is a prime example of the electorate thinking for themselves. A betrayal of the democratic wish of the majority will not go down well. Also there can't be many Conservatives or Labour supporters that haven't noticed their parties seismic shift from their traditional beliefs and values. This alienation coupled with the disenfranchisement that a Brexit betrayal would bring would make the next general election hard to call. Perhaps we shall see a new political force tapping into this anger and desire for change. Many countries in Europe are seeing the rise of populist alternatives to the established major parties. Perhaps it is our turn next?

Hope so ! What we have at present is purely self serving and dysfunctional.