Brexit - merged threads

[JohnfromUK]

12 minutes ago, Stonepark said:

A second Brexit referendum, will immediately open the door to the SNP to keep holding referendums until they get the answer they want.....

The door should be firmly shut on that.  It was made quite clear - and agreed by all, it was a "Once in a generation" vote.

[Newbie to this]

3 hours ago, Retsdon said:

People like Ivan Rogers should be listened to, even if what he says is not what you want to hear.

And people like David Collins should be ignored, just because it doesn't fit in with your agenda? It doesn't matter who they are or what they have done, it is all just guess work.

These people on both side are just guessing, because NO ONE KNOWS!

I believe we will be better off in the long run and it is the EU that will not survive, everyday more and more people in EU countries are starting to want away from the EU. The EU's days are numbered in my opinion.

[Rewulf]

11 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

The door should be firmly shut on that.  It was made quite clear - and agreed by all, it was a "Once in a generation" vote.

Have a 2nd Ref. for me.
But remain , or anything like it , does not want to be anywhere near that ballot paper.

[12gauge82]

25 minutes ago, panoma1 said:

I agree, I was referring to the propaganda spouted on the run up to original referendum decision..............not the project fear carp we are now suffering! With remainers whining that it was a mistake and we didn't know what we were doing!....in an attempt to justify pushing for a second referendum!

Sorry it wasn't a reply to you, I was just going on a rant 😂👍

24 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

I rather doubt that hard brexit will even be one of the choices.  IF there is another referendum, the questions will be "Mrs May's Deal" or Remain.

If hard brexit (as in "no deal") is one of the choices - it will be as one of three; "No deal", "Mrs May's Deal" or Remain.  Thus splitting the leave vote. 

Not my choices, but that is what they will do (in my humble opinion).

I think your dead right, I've predicted the same myself.

[JohnfromUK]

13 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

Have a 2nd Ref. for me.
But remain , or anything like it , does not want to be anywhere near that ballot paper.

I didn't make it clear - I meant the Scots referendum!  But I don't want a second Brexit one either.

[12gauge82]

This confirms what most on here already know, if we sign up to Mays deal, we could be stuck on n the EU forevermore, contrary to what disMay has claimed, it's no mistake that tiny caveat is in there, I mean how ironic is that, the biggest vote this country has ever had tells those in power we want to leave, the governments solution was to lock us in to the EU even tighter than before the vote, you just couldn't make it up!

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1058697/brexit-news-irish-backstop-martin-howe-qc-brexit-deal

Edited December 15, 2018 by 12gauge82

[Retsdon]

41 minutes ago, Newbie to this said:

And people like David Collins should be ignored, just because it doesn't fit in with your agenda?

I've read David Collins' stuff and some of it's plausible - at least to me. But he's an ex-lawyer and yet another faculty-based university academic who deals in theories. That's fine, but when those theories are directly questioned by someone like Rogers who has spent three decades conducting international trade negotiations at the highest level, I'll accord more weight to the viewpoint of the practical man. Perhaps I'm wrong and biased, but that's just how I tend to think...

As to the EU's days being numbered - you might be correct. Who know? But as they say about the stock market -the market can be wrong a lot longer than you can afford to be right! 

Edited December 15, 2018 by Retsdon

[Newbie to this]

23 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

I've read David Collins' stuff and some of it's plausible - at least to me. But he's an ex-lawyer and yet another faculty-based university academic who deals in theories. That's fine, but when those theories are directly questioned by someone like Rogers who has spent three decades conducting international trade negotiations at the highest level, I'll accord more weight to the viewpoint of the practical man. Perhaps I'm wrong and biased, but that's just how I tend to think...

As to the EU's days being numbered - you might be correct. Who know? But as they say about the stock market -the market can be wrong a lot longer than you can afford to be right! 

David Collins is also a professor in economy law at a London university.

Also for a lot of people it isn't just about trade, it's about a multitude of things why they voted to Leave and if we take a hit, then it is a price worth paying to be a sovereign nation.

Some people of the UK, will not take being governed by a foreign power seeking to become an Empire.

[12gauge82]

40 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

I've read David Collins' stuff and some of it's plausible - at least to me. But he's an ex-lawyer and yet another faculty-based university academic who deals in theories. That's fine, but when those theories are directly questioned by someone like Rogers who has spent three decades conducting international trade negotiations at the highest level, I'll accord more weight to the viewpoint of the practical man. Perhaps I'm wrong and biased, but that's just how I tend to think...

As to the EU's days being numbered - you might be correct. Who know? But as they say about the stock market -the market can be wrong a lot longer than you can afford to be right! 

But it's not about what's good for business or the economy, it's about what the people of the UK voted for and we voted to leave, not remain, or leave a little bit, we need to leave or we don't live in a free country.

[Jaymo]

27 minutes ago, 12gauge82 said:

But it's not about what's good for business or the economy, it's about what the people of the UK voted for and we voted to leave, not remain, or leave a little bit, we need to leave or we don't live in a free country.

“Not about business or the Economy”, just what planet/dimension do you live on which does not rely on a stable Economy or Businesses for employment.

No business equals no employment equals no money equal a downwards spiral.

But it’s ok as your probably over 65 without a mortgage due to house inflation (your mortgage was peanuts anyway) and your in receipt of a Pension? Am I right? 

Even your Pension won’t bail you out of every situation, unless you enjoy the hermit life of course. 

 

[Retsdon]

1 minute ago, Jaymo said:

Even your Pension won’t bail you out of every situation,

'...the pound in your pocket....'

[Jaymo]

20 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

'...the pound in your pocket....'

Is quoted as being barely worth a dollar according to the LHR ( Heathrow) Travelex - now even if you had your much mooted USA Trade deal, things are vastly more expensive today than say May 2016.

Good job oil etc isn’t traded in Dollars 😉

[oowee]

Whilst the exchange rate is in the short term helping with exports its ultimately undermining uk asset values. Look at the sale of uk companies. Unfortunately none of my bets for sale have come in. Even Severn Trent begging for a Canadian takeover is plagued by the threat of a Corbyn re nationalisation. 

If your assets are in UK its too late to move stuff now. 

[pinfireman]

6 hours ago, Retsdon said:

Ah, but they do know. Of course, nobody even 'knows' that the sun will come up tomorrow - but you wouldn't bet against it. Everything in life is a matter of probabilities, so, like it or not, we are forced to decisions based on the balance of probabilities.

And people who know their fields are, in general, better judges of probable outcomes than those who don't. So when someone like Ivan Rogers, who at age 35 headed up Leon Brittan's team when Brittan was Europe's Trade Commissioner, who has negotiated at the highest level both on behalf of and in opposition to the EU, who  has been hand-picked to advise four different Prime Ministers (2 Labour and 2 Tory), who, between his spells in public service was chosen to run a large  US banking consortium's, European practice...when someone like that gives their opinion on the probable outcome of trade negotiations with Europe and other Trade Blocs I accord his views more weight than I would someone like Minford's whose only job outside of the ivory towers of university adademia was as advisor to the Ministry of Finance of Malawi. Of course, Minford might be right and Roger's with his vast experience  might be wrong. But i wouldn't like to bet my future livelihood on it.

As the song says, ' a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest', and it's true, and we're all guilty of it. But as I tell my students when they grizzle they haven't got time to do assignments or whatever - lie to me if you want to, because it doesn't matter. But don't lie to yourself because that's how you end up failing out of the university. 

I don't doubt that they firmly believe what they say, but I can't help worry that too many hardline Brexit supporters, including some on these boards, are falling into the trap of self-deceit. People like Ivan Rogers should be listened to, even if what he says is not what you want to hear.

As a former Ambassador to the EU, probably with a holiday home in Europe, what would you expect him to say?  He,s biased!

[12gauge82]

42 minutes ago, Jaymo said:

“Not about business or the Economy”, just what planet/dimension do you live on which does not rely on a stable Economy or Businesses for employment.

No business equals no employment equals no money equal a downwards spiral.

But it’s ok as your probably over 65 without a mortgage due to house inflation (your mortgage was peanuts anyway) and your in receipt of a Pension? Am I right? 

Even your Pension won’t bail you out of every situation, unless you enjoy the hermit life of course. 

 

The country was asked, if the damage could have been large by voting the "wrong" way, it should never have been put to public vote, now the votes happened, it must be enacted, or we're living in a dictatorship, I and over half the voting country beleive leaving will be good for the economy, but it's now besides the point.

As for me I have a very comfortable life, in part, due to the status quo that has afforded my family to remain wealthy, money makes money at the end of the day, it's about time there was a change, if you read many of my posts on here you will see on other threads I have regularly said I feel very sorry for the young in this country and I believe a good start is getting out of the EU.

[pinfireman]

16 hours ago, Retsdon said:

https://www.politico.eu/article/camerons-sherpa/ An old article that discusses Roger's original appointment to Brussels.

He was also head of cabinet when Leon Brittan was European commissioner for trade, and was adviser to Labour leaders Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.

The doubters would be surprised to learn that both Cunliffe and Rogers are the most ‘Eurosceptical’ permanent representatives in the UK’s 40-year membership. Both understand not just the benefits but also the costs of EU membership, the interests of the eurozone and those member states outside it, and the importance of big-power politics in achieving their government’s interests.

It's quite clear that he's nobody's fool, and he obviously  knows a great deal about international trade and how the EU works. Why would you want to dismiss his opinions out of hand?

 

"The most Euro-sceptical in 40 years".....does not say much for the others, then, does it? It ceertainly does not mean he was a true Euro-sceptic! As for serving Blair / Brown,  and the pro-EU  Leon Brittain, well that says it all.  Remember Blair......."weapons of mass destruction etc...? A total starnger to the truth!

[panoma1]

I think the remainers smell blood! I am certainly getting a whiff of the decaying corpse of democracy!

[panoma1]

What a wonderful tool a list of MP's who vote for another referendum (should there be one) on leaving the EU (contrary to the democratic will already expressed by the people of the UK) would be!......To the electorate, should a new political party enter the political arena!

Who's fault will it be if an extremist Right Wing party arises from the ashes of democracy, and subsequently gets elected into government?....the electorate, or those that defacated all over democracy!

[oowee]

20 minutes ago, panoma1 said:

I think the remainers smell blood! I am certainly getting a whiff of the decaying corpse of democracy!

I suspect its too late the damage is done. What we want to know now is how bad can it get? 

[Newbie to this]

17 minutes ago, oowee said:

What we want to know now is how bad can it get

Or on the other side, how good it will be!

Edited December 15, 2018 by Newbie to this

[Gerry78]

Yas voted to leave and want all the benefits Do yous actually think the EU are gonna give yous the best deal it’s like leaving a wildfowling club and still wanting to shoot the land and have all the benefits of being in a club Get over it the best the UK can do is stick together and look after its people 

[panoma1]

40 minutes ago, Gerry78 said:

Yas voted to leave and want all the benefits Do yous actually think the EU are gonna give yous the best deal it’s like leaving a wildfowling club and still wanting to shoot the land and have all the benefits of being in a club Get over it the best the UK can do is stick together and look after its people 

No voter asked for or expected a "deal" We just voted to leave, we leave with **** all they get **** all when we leave!.....the UK and the EU could sort any issues out (or not?) by negotiation, post Brexit!........the "deal" on offer, was never intended to be acceptable, it is a politician manufactured tactic to prevent us leaving!

[Retsdon]

3 minutes ago, pinfireman said:

"The most Euro-sceptical in 40 years".....does not say much for the others, then, does it? It ceertainly does not mean he was a true Euro-sceptic! As for serving Blair / Brown,  and the pro-EU  Leon Brittain, well that says it all.  Remember Blair......."weapons of mass destruction etc...? A total starnger to the truth!

Why is it on these boards that any points raised from a viewpoint that differs from Hard Brexit, no matter how well informed or from whatever source, are never, ever engaged with directly. Instead, the author is simply rubbished and his points are dismissed out of hand as mendacious claptrap, penned to further some sinister agenda - usually personal. There. End of. No further discussion needed.  It's like trying to discuss comparative religion with the Wahabi from Qassim! Anything that's not the True Faith of the Sunni is heresy, and only harm can come from even looking at it........

 

55 minutes ago, oowee said:

I suspect its too late the damage is done. What we want to know now is how bad can it get? 

 My guess is a lot worse than people currently suspect. May's 'deal' - which I'm convinced she'll eventually get voted through Parliament - is nothing more than a list of aspirations pinned to a provisional timeline. The real negotiations haven't started yet and are going to take years and years. In the meantime the economy will be starved of any new investment, and overseas customers are going to find more certain prospects to do their business with.  A decade from now, the pound at $0.70c. 

[Newbie to this]

1 hour ago, Gerry78 said:

want all the benefits

What benefits?

[Scully]

On 14/12/2018 at 08:00, Retsdon said:

https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2018/12/13/full-speech-sir-ivan-rogers-on-brexit/

Should be printed verbatim in every newspaper in the country. He fully accepts the referendum result, but is in despair over the fog of ignorance - a lot if it wilful -surrounding both the Remainder and Brexiter wings of the political and media 'debate'.

And while Rogers speech on the reality of Brexit negotiation is an enlightening, if depressing, read, the other thread on here about the homeless got me thinking. And it's interesting how a country's national life can be similar to an individuals. I've known more that a couple of people born into comfortable middle-class life for whom the notion of being poor or without means or without friends and family would have been unthinkable in former years. And yet they've gone on to finish their days basically in the gutter. And it's surprising how often what might previously have been a  slow descent was catastrophically accelerated into unthinkably bad circumstances by a single bad decision, either personal or financial, that was predicated on wishful thinking and a refusal to acknowledge unpalatable reality.

I have a depressing premonition that when the history books get to be written a hundred years from now, that Brexit will rank alongside a decision like selling the house and moving to Thailand to marry the girl and run a hotel on the beach. A beautiful idea which leads to a decision made for all the right reasons, but sadly....

On the horizon I can see nothing but shattered illusions. I hope I'm wrong.

That is such a staggeringly ridiculous post it beggars belief! There are just as many people 'claiming to be in the know' predicting great things for the UK outside the EU. Your link doesn't exactly refer to an independent party does it! All the scaremongering remainers have been given a glimmer of hope now and are really turning up the negative spin in order to garner a second referendum. I genuinely and seriously hope that if there is a second referendum it creates civil unrest such as has never been seen in my lifetime. There is much much more at stake here than someones pension or personal financial agenda. People need to get a grip and grow a pair.