Brexit - merged threads

[Raja Clavata]

According to the mail:

• Theresa May will beg EU for a three-month delay - but Juncker says she may have to pass her deal to get one
• Cabinet is split with Brexiteers hoping for No Deal and Remainers  accusing her of 'caving-in' to Eurosceptics 
• Prime Minister travels to Brussels tomorrow to seek short extension to Article 50 beyond March 29
• Mrs May hopes she can return to the Commons next week with a substantial change to withdrawal agreement
• PM has told ministers she will be asking for a clause which could allow for withdrawal by June 30   
• Juncker signals that May must win vote on her deal before a delay to Brexit is granted at emergency summit
• Labour push for emergency debate as Bercow prepares to intervene again days after blocking third vote 
• Brexiteers say Britain must leave before June's EU elections and party certain to be hit in May local elections

Interesting and animated debate in Parliament right now...

[TIGHTCHOKE]

No Deal on the 29th of March 2019 please.

[Rewulf]

Riddle me this.

May is going to formally ask Brussels tomorrow for a A50 extension 'no longer than 3 months to June 30,  with me so far ?
She says she wants to avoid the EU elections that start on the 23 rd of May , with candidates named by 18 th May, so err...
This is for her to get her deal through Parliament, that the speaker has told her she cant have a vote on again unless its changed considerably..
The EU wont let her change it...
The house probably wont vote for it anyway...
 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47636011

Obviously this entails it getting a unanimous vote by the 27 members... or does it ? 
The commission  has said that May needs to get her deal through, have an election , a new referendum, or come up with a completely new acceptable plan, before they extend it ?
They do realise that we leave next week without an extension dont they ? Theres no time to do any of that.

With strong murmurings of an Italian veto even if it does come to an extension vote, there is literally no where to go with this except no deal next week, you know, the one Parliament thought it had removed from the table , but not really ?

Im beginning to feel quietly confident we getting the Brexit we wanted.

 

 

[oowee]

3 Months? Not long enough may as well go for another two years and start again. 

[Raja Clavata]

I agree the dates don't stack up even using the "Abbott theorem" of mathematical incompetence.

From what I understood May will try to get the EU to agree to make the "three additional papers" legally binding as she thinks that would constitute a substantive change to the current withdrawal agreement.

I still think it could go at least one of two ways, no deal or no Brexit.

[Rewulf]

2 minutes ago, oowee said:

3 Months? Not long enough may as well go for another two years and start again. 

Lets leave on the 29 th , and THEN we'll start negotiating again ?
Stick a transition period into play using a Norway or Canada temporary deal, or just leave and deal with it on a case by case basis ?

 

3 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

From what I understood May will try to get the EU to agree to make the "three additional papers" legally binding as she thinks that would constitute a substantive change to the current withdrawal agreement.

That wouldnt be a bad idea if it werent for the fact the EU are trying to A. Stop us from leaving altogether. Or B . Make leaving as difficult and painful as possible, to the detriment of ours and theirs businesses.

Youre not dealing with straight people here, thats why we're leaving.

[oowee]

Just now, Rewulf said:

Lets leave on the 29 th , and THEN we'll start negotiating again ?
Stick a transition period into play using a Norway or Canada temporary deal, or just leave and deal with it on a case by case basis ?

 

 Yes lets start from ground zero for our negotiating stance and try to agree half of what we have now. Expensive choice. 

[Raja Clavata]

Just now, Rewulf said:

That wouldnt be a bad idea if it werent for the fact the EU are trying to A. Stop us from leaving altogether. Or B . Make leaving as difficult and painful as possible, to the detriment of ours and theirs businesses.

Agreed and it looks like Parliament are making it relatively easy for them to do so.

The EU are well wonky indeed and as I've said before that was part of the reason a number of us, despite being largely Eurosceptic, voted to remain.

If the EU force us into a corner with refusal to delay past 29th March what do you honestly rate the odds of no deal vs A50 revocation?

[Rewulf]

4 minutes ago, oowee said:

 Yes lets start from ground zero for our negotiating stance and try to agree half of what we have now. Expensive choice. 

For who , them or us ?

We hold onto our £39 bn, the other £15 bn odd subs we wont be paying in the transition period, also VAT and duty taxes we get to keep.
Are we ready for no deal ? No, but neither are they, and the budget black hole they seem to keep quiet about.
Do you seriously believe they are OK with no deal ?
If they had any sense they would be far more scared of it than we should be.
I think they will want to put some kind of deal together quick time, its a game of bluff, and they are playing better than us, but we still have a hand, and nothing to lose, as we are all in.

Just now, Raja Clavata said:

If the EU force us into a corner with refusal to delay past 29th March what do you honestly rate the odds of no deal vs A50 revocation?

The EU HAVE forced us into a corner, the government can commit political suicide by revoking article 50, or go no deal.

I have spoken to my 3 eyed cat, and she has come up with an 85.32 % chance of no deal happening 

[oowee]

Just now, Rewulf said:

For who , them or us ?

We hold onto our £39 bn, the other £15 bn odd subs we wont be paying in the transition period, also VAT and duty taxes we get to keep.
Are we ready for no deal ? No, but neither are they, and the budget black hole they seem to keep quiet about.
Do you seriously believe they are OK with no deal ?
If they had any sense they would be far more scared of it than we should be.
I think they will want to put some kind of deal together quick time, its a game of bluff, and they are playing better than us, but we still have a hand, and nothing to lose, as we are all in.

Us. 

We will be paying the 39bn one way or another. Maybe with costs. 

We only have a hand to play whilst we are in. From outside we start from the other side of the channel. Some states will no doubt relish a no deal particularly on services. Budget black hole is an illusion. They will just simply temper the budget. Scared of what?????  We are a small but important part of the EU market, the EU is a very large part of ours. For some states we are zero important look at the bargaining place that they will start from if we are out clawing our way back in moaning out in the rain. 

Complete Tory farce. Sack the lot of them. 

[Mice!]

7 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

For who , them or us ?

We hold onto our £39 bn, the other £15 bn odd subs we wont be paying in the transition period, also VAT and duty taxes we get to keep.
Are we ready for no deal ? No, but neither are they, and the budget black hole they seem to keep quiet about.
Do you seriously believe they are OK with no deal ?
If they had any sense they would be far more scared of it than we should be.
I think they will want to put some kind of deal together quick time, its a game of bluff, and they are playing better than us, but we still have a hand, and nothing to lose, as we are all in.

The EU HAVE forced us into a corner, the government can commit political suicide by revoking article 50, or go no deal.

I have spoken to my 3 eyed cat, and she has come up with an 85.32 % chance of no deal happening 

is it the flop( Europe) or the river? The final card in poker? Not over till she sings, right now she's gargling getting ready.

we're an island, time we were properly independent again.

[Raja Clavata]

8 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

The EU HAVE forced us into a corner, the government can commit political suicide by revoking article 50, or go no deal.

I have spoken to my 3 eyed cat, and she has come up with an 85.32 % chance of no deal happening 

Lol - I don't know what colour eyes your cat has but it seems to know what side of it's bread is buttered 😉

I hear you but would it really be suicide, what are the other options? Surely they'd just need to throw a few mil at Cambridge Analytica and it'll be sorted...

By options I mean Labour are not a credible opposition, UKIP are too far right, unless the ERG and others left and joint them the Brexit party could not form a credible government and The IG couldn't mobilise quickly enough...

Edited March 20, 2019 by Raja Clavata
to clarify options

[Rewulf]

4 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

I hear you but would it really be suicide,

Without a shadow of a doubt.

 

4 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

what are the other options?

None left , times up. 

 

5 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

Surely they'd just need to throw a few mil at Cambridge Analytica and it'll be sorted...

People have had enough of being told they got manipulated by analysis companies/Russians/bots/social media.
Theyve had enough of being told they didnt 'understand' what it was all about, they wouldnt have been told that if remain had won would they.
It was a popular vote, with a high turnout, with all the money and backing of the government behind remain, and they still lost.

Faith in our political hierarchy has been damaged, perhaps beyond repair.
By delivering Brexit, on time, next week, some part of that trust can be repaired.

Continue to fudge, delay and basically betray any more, and you are going to see massive political change.
Millions will leave mainstream parties, what if 14 million people vote for UKIP or a Eurosceptic party at the next election ?

Table: 2015 general election results summary

Party	Seats	Gain	Loss	Net	Votes	%	±%
Conservative	331	35	11	+24	11,334,920	36.9	+0.8
Labour	232	22	48	–26	9,347,326	30.4	+1.5
Scottish National	56	50	0	+50	1,454,436	4.7	+3.1
Liberal Democrat	8	0	49	–49	2,415,888	7.9	–15.2
Democratic Unionist	8	1	1	0	184,260	0.6	0.0
Sinn Féin	4	0	1	–1	176,232	0.6	0.0
Plaid Cymru	3	0	0	0	181,694	0.6	0.0
SDLP	3	0	0	0	99,809	0.3	0.0
Ulster Unionist	2	2	0	+2	114,935	0.4	0.0
UKIP	1	1	0	+1	3,881,129	12.6	+9.5
Green	1	0	0	0	1,157,613	3.8	+2.8
Others	1	0	0	0	164,826	0.5	–0.3

 

Think it wont happen ? People thought we would never vote to leave the EU.

[Rewulf]

23 minutes ago, oowee said:

We are a small but important part of the EU market,

Small but important 😄

 

24 minutes ago, oowee said:

We will be paying the 39bn one way or another. Maybe with costs. 

Why ?

 

23 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

By options I mean Labour are not a credible opposition, UKIP are too far right, unless the ERG and others left and joint them the Brexit party could not form a credible government and The IG couldn't mobilise quickly enough...

If a proper Brexit party is needed, and the ERG did leave the tories to form the core of it , it would force a GE , most ERG seats are safe, labour and the tories would be devastated by ERG candidates , I could easily see the ERG/Brexit party alliance take power, or at the very least, go into coalition with whats left of the tories.

You dont see the IG as being a credible party do you ? Most of them would lose their seats in an election.

 

30 minutes ago, oowee said:

For some states we are zero important look at the bargaining place that they will start from if we are out clawing our way back in moaning out in the rain. 

 Really, makes you wonder what you see in this country, we are so small and insignificant ?

[Raja Clavata]

Just now, Rewulf said:

People have had enough of being told they got manipulated by analysis companies/Russians/bots/social media.
Theyve had enough of being told they didnt 'understand' what it was all about, they wouldnt have been told that if remain had won would they.
It was a popular vote, with a high turnout, with all the money and backing of the government behind remain, and they still lost.

Two of the leave voters closest to me will openly now say that they were manipulated and they feel betrayed by the leave campaign promising something that was not realistic.

So SOME people have had enough and SOME people have changed their minds and the change of mind can work both ways of course.

Some of us, and I venture also some of those who voted leave, have also had enough of what appears to be a minority of hard line Brexiteers thinking the vote to leave gives them a justifiable platform to speak for all of the 17.4 million as a single voice. It's a fundamentally flawed line of reasoning and if indeed the downfall of Brexit comes to pass then it will have been a contributing factor.

[Raja Clavata]

Just now, Rewulf said:

If a proper Brexit party is needed, and the ERG did leave the tories to form the core of it , it would force a GE , most ERG seats are safe, labour and the tories would be devastated by ERG candidates , I could easily see the ERG/Brexit party alliance take power, or at the very least, go into coalition with whats left of the tories.

You dont see the IG as being a credible party do you ? Most of them would lose their seats in an election.

I think a coalition would be the only viable outcome. I hope at the very least the whole sherbang would drive some kind of electoral reform which is sorely needed.

I think it would be foolhardy to completely rule out the IG as there is a body of opinion that the middle ground of UK politics does need to be recaptured.

Don't forget that people thought we'd never vote to leave the EU 😛 

[Diss4111]

5 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

Two of the leave voters closest to me will openly now say that they were manipulated and they feel betrayed by the leave campaign promising something that was not realistic.

So SOME people have had enough and SOME people have changed their minds and the change of mind can work both ways of course.

Some of us, and I venture also some of those who voted leave, have also had enough of what appears to be a minority of hard line Brexiteers thinking the vote to leave gives them a justifiable platform to speak for all of the 17.4 million as a single voice. It's a fundamentally flawed line of reasoning and if indeed the downfall of Brexit comes to pass then it will have been a contributing factor.

I voted leave, and to be honest I am sick of the whole shambles. We voted to leave, not to pander to the EU and keep going back to them cap in hand begging. We should have left the day after evoking article 50 and the negotiating would be done and dusted now. May is on the ropes and the EU will land the final blow shortly. It has been said time and time again any negotiation you cannot walk away from is not a negotiation. The EU know she will not walk away so they can continue to take the ****.

They would be shafted if the UK walked away today and they know it, however they also know May will never do it.

They NEED to deal with us, they cannot survive without us. Yes a no deal may hurt for a bit, but it will hurt them way more. VW, Audi, Mercedes, BMW, Bosch, Miele, and many many more will not take to kindly to a huge drop in their annual turnover and profit.

[12gauge82]

We've had the referendum, we need to leave. The end

[Rewulf]

20 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

Two of the leave voters closest to me will openly now say that they were manipulated and they feel betrayed by the leave campaign promising something that was not realistic.

Like what exactly ?
I could say I know 100 leave voters personally, and not one has changed their mind, I can also tell you that not many of them will vote labour or tory again.

 

22 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

Some of us, and I venture also some of those who voted leave, have also had enough of what appears to be a minority of hard line Brexiteers thinking the vote to leave gives them a justifiable platform to speak for all of the 17.4 million as a single voice. It's a fundamentally flawed line of reasoning and if indeed the downfall of Brexit comes to pass then it will have been a contributing factor.

What is a hard line Brexiter ?
It sounds to me like you are reading into the opinions of a certain , shall we say left wing area of the media, so who is manipulating who now ?
The opinions of the ERG are that we should leave, respect the majority vote, where does hard line come into it ?
Its only hard line , or hard right as some say, if you want to REMAIN , but weve had that vote, they lost.

Brexit will happen, the cat is truly out of the bag on that one.
These are just the incredulous, scrabbling attempts to divert it, its too late.
The quicker these politicians embrace it and support it, the longer their careers will last, because Im seeing that once we are out and stabilised, a GE is going to get called anyway, and some MPs will be vacating their seats.

[Raja Clavata]

9 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

Like what exactly ?
I could say I know 100 leave voters personally, and not one has changed their mind, I can also tell you that not many of them will vote labour or tory again.

What is a hard line Brexiter ?
It sounds to me like you are reading into the opinions of a certain , shall we say left wing area of the media, so who is manipulating who now ?
The opinions of the ERG are that we should leave, respect the majority vote, where does hard line come into it ?
Its only hard line , or hard right as some say, if you want to REMAIN , but weve had that vote, they lost.

Brexit will happen, the cat is truly out of the bag on that one.
These are just the incredulous, scrabbling attempts to divert it, its too late.
The quicker these politicians embrace it and support it, the longer their careers will last, because Im seeing that once we are out and stabilised, a GE is going to get called anyway, and some MPs will be vacating their seats.

Like that it was possible to leave and the EU would give us a favourable deal, that they'd be knocking on our door to do a deal with us - for starters.

I don't believe there is an established definition but from my perspective it's people that are hell bent on a no deal Brexit and who take the view that Leave won so everyone who voted leave aligns with their version of leave and everbody else's view does not matter (because they lost). But as you suggest all this is about perspective. I would expect a "hard line Brexiteer" to view my position as one of pretty extreme Liberal but in fact through the tests I've taken my views are more or less centre (left of centre on some topics, right on others).

I agree a day of reckoning is coming and it might just be that some MPs hold their convictions against no deal Brexit enough to put that belief above the sanctity of their parliamentary seats. Time will tell, and frankly the sooner the better for all of us... 

[Raja Clavata]

The independent is reporting that polls show remain would win if a vote was held today but that no deal would get more votes than the TM deal. Calling it about right in my opinion although there is no need for another vote  and the two positions are not mutually exclusive anyway.

[Teal]

13 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

The independent is reporting that polls show remain would win if a vote was held today but that no deal would get more votes than the TM deal. Calling it about right in my opinion although there is no need for another vote  and the two positions are not mutually exclusive anyway.

I'm not taking a position on the debate, but didn't the polls call it wrong the last time.

[Rewulf]

4 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

Like that it was possible to leave and the EU would give us a favourable deal, that they'd be knocking on our door to do a deal with us - for starters.

OK lets examine that statement.
Is it not in the EUs interest to keep one of its biggest trading partners on side, why (bear with me) would it not want to give us a decent deal ?
Do they not represent and organise trade, rules and standards for all the EU members ? Why would they be hostile ?
This is the thought process of leave.

What wasnt apparent was how vehemently the EU would protect its own integrity, and by that I dont mean Europe or the member countries, ITSELF , the project.

It knows that its grip on the more prosperous states is fragile, and without them it cannot afford the less prosperous states.
Us leaving and being given a deal, would create a precedent that could collapse the entire bloc, personally I think this is now unavoidable anyway.

Therefore it cant physically play nice with us without damaging itself, it also cant help but damage itself by its actions over the last 2 years.

13 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

I don't believe there is an established definition but from my perspective it's people that are hell bent on a no deal Brexit and who take the view that Leave won so everyone who voted leave aligns with their version of leave and everbody else's view does not matter (because they lost). But as you suggest all this is about perspective. I would expect a "hard line Brexiteer" to view my position as one of pretty extreme Liberal but in fact through the tests I've taken my views are more or less centre (left of centre on some topics, right on others).

No part of the leave camp set out for hard Brexit, these terms of soft and hard only came into being when it became apparent the EU was going to be difficult, much to the glee of certain remain politicians, the terms 'crash out' and 'cliff edge' are good examples of the rhetoric used by remain.

They have even taken to using the term 'far right' as a slur to make people like Mogg, who is simply trying to honour the ref vote, as some kind of extremist.

17 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

I agree a day of reckoning is coming and it might just be that some MPs hold their convictions against no deal Brexit enough to put that belief above the sanctity of their parliamentary seats. Time will tell, and frankly the sooner the better for all of us... 

Is it their convictions that are important though, many labour and TIG MPs have large leave constituencies, is that how they are supposed to represent?
Ignore the votes of the many, for just their opinion, because they know best, do they ?

 

14 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

The independent is reporting that polls show remain would win if a vote was held today but that no deal would get more votes than the TM deal. Calling it about right in my opinion although there is no need for another vote  and the two positions are not mutually exclusive anyway.

The independent does regular polls that show remain would win, they commission and pay for them, do you think they would publish them if they said leave would win again ?

1 minute ago, Teal said:

I'm not taking a position on the debate, but didn't the polls call it wrong the last time.

They did indeed, hoping for the sheep effect I presume.
Polls tend to show what the person paying for them wants them to show.

[Raja Clavata]

Just now, Teal said:

I'm not taking a position on the debate, but didn't the polls call it wrong the last time.

Yes they did.

[Gordon R]

Is this the same Independent who don't appear to be aware of the ongoing riots in France? They seem to have stopped two months ago.