Brexit - merged threads

[12gauge82]

35 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

Thats just given me a strange, brainstormy idea 😄

We leave, hard Brexit , no divorce deal, WTO rules.
But we have a transition period, 1 year , maybe 6 months if feasible, we pay our usual 'subs' but can negotiate other trade deals.
We use the transition period to negotiate rejoining the EU !
Put our demands down about what we want from the EU , and get THEM to put US a deal on the table.
When (if )the deal is down, we go back and ask the people, another referendum ,based on the new deal.
That way all remainers get a second chance, based on how much the EU actually wants US , rather than how much the EU just wants our money.
If all leavers are still sure, we get to stay out.
Yes the time frame is tight, but thats so they can get theyre bums into gear and sort it, no dancing, no carrots.

Better informed by what ?
Project fear 2 ?
Or the economic factors of Brexit not even happening yet ?

Great idea.

Also, couldn't agree more with your last paragraph, all that's actually happened that has effected the economy so far, is a bunch of remainiacs doing there best to down talk the UK, scaremonger and try to damage the economy as best they can.

[Rewulf]

3 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

Mostly by Richard North's blog http://www.eureferendum.com/profile.aspx?username=richard - not just the content of the blog itself, but also by the links and the comment section. These aren't propagandists, they're mostly people who know what they're talking about having a discussion. 

As for the economics of a hard Brexit, in this day and age the world's trade is increasingly governed by regional FTA agreements or globally by regional trade blocs and cartels that negotiate on behalf of their membership. Where is Britain, estranged from his regional neighbours, going to fit into all this? It's not 1978 anymore. 

As I said before, I hope my pessimism is misplaced - but I don't know - I find the whole thing a bit depressing. The road to hell is paved with good intentions.

 

They are people talking about their opinions, how well informed they are , does not guarantee accuracy, it helps, but nothing is certain when it comes to ones point of view.
Richard North , for all his experience, has no crystal ball, any more than Mark Carney or Phillip Hammond.

Second point, we will still be geographically and strategically  close to Europe, we are members of more than one club besides the EU, and I shouldnt have to remind you , not all countries in Europe are EU countries.
To consider that our leaving the EU somehow estranges us from dealing economically with Europe is straight out the project fear handbook, its a fallacy that we are told to somehow believe that, come March 29 th 2019 , trade will stop, planes wont fly and your passport becomes invalid !
Do you believe that? because if thats the case, you have swallowed the whole lie.

[Rewulf]

22 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

The road to hell is paved with good intentions.

 

The road to the United states of Europe is paved with the gravestones of national sovereignty, culture and democracy.

[JohnfromUK]

1 hour ago, Retsdon said:

I'm  not talking about the principles of free movement. I'm talking about the principle of a single market The single market works because you have intra-border uniformity of standards and a common external border operating under the same rules and conditions. What Chequers proposes is that the EU should breach its external border. How's that supposed to work? How can the EU have 'seamless' borders with a country that could go out and negotiate an independent trade deal with a 3rd country that differs markedly to the terms that third country might itself have with the EU? 

The EU's own definition of the single market (from their web pages) is; 

"The Single Market refers to the EU as one territory without any internal borders or other regulatory obstacles to the free movement of goods and services."

Now 'internal borders' do currently exist in that all 27 are separate countries and have their own 'borders', although they are 'open' borders.  There is no reason why the border between the two parts of Ireland should not be equally 'open' as it is now.  We are not requesting any regulatory obstacles to the free movement of goods and services to my knowledge. 

Of course we want to be able to make our own deals outside the EU - we are (or at least should be) after all a free country.

We MUST have the ability to negotiate our own trade outside the EU.  What right has the EU to control our trade with 3rd party countries once we have left?  That is what the whole thing is about.  If they cannot accept that, then they must build and operate their border in Ireland and forgo the 40 billion - and we will go our own way,  World wide free (i.e. WTO) trade - not EU restricted trade is what we need.  If the EU still wishes to trade with us, they are most welcome - as will be the rest of the world.

[Rewulf]

4 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

 

We MUST have the ability to negotiate our own trade outside the EU.  What right has the EU to control our trade with 3rd party countries once we have left?  That is what the whole thing is about.  If they cannot accept that, then they must build and operate their border in Ireland and forgo the 40 billion - and we will go our own way,  World wide free (i.e. WTO) trade - not EU restricted trade is what we need.  If the EU still wishes to trade with us, they are most welcome - as will be the rest of the world.

Exactly.
How does forcing us to accept conditions about the NI border, actually help the NI border problem.
We can leave it open , 'our' side , let them close it 'their' side, and administer all the customs checks they like.
Im sure the people of Ireland will be thrilled with that, and it wont be the fault of the UK in the slightest.
But they say its US endangering the good friday agreement ?

[Gordon R]

Quote

Why priceless? I think I"m better informed than I was two years ago. And some things become clearer as events develop over the passage of time. What's wrong with re-thinking one's position? 

Priceless - things you say could never happen have emerged over the last two years? How does that work?

[Retsdon]

So can anyone remember, what was May's objection to this arrangement? http://www.efta.int/faq

[Scully]

4 hours ago, Retsdon said:

 

 

Totally unfettered is a dream.

'......you've gotta have a dream, if you don't have a dream, how you gonna have a dream come true? ' 😀

[old man]

On 17/09/2018 at 12:49, 12gauge82 said:

Another couple of good points Mr Scully, one which I'd like to pick up on is the demographic of those who chose to leave Vs remain, the media would have us believe it a straight devide between young and old, I think it's much closer to working class who have been left behind, down trodden and ignored by the politicians, Vs those who find "the status quo" is currently working very well for, backed by uni's and the students they teach.

I think so too, amazing the way us old workers who made and supported this country are denied a democratic view by some supposedly intelligent people. Not wishing to be insulting to those of that persuasion but perhaps it should be remembered that democracy does not always give the result wanted personally?

Probably the situation in Brussels will deteriorate fairly rapidly towards the end?

27 against 1 is it? Mm. Almost the same odds as previously?

Full circle, millions dead and good old political will put us back there again? A knighthood being the reward.

[Rewulf]

33 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

So can anyone remember, what was May's objection to this arrangement? http://www.efta.int/faq

To be in the EFTA you need to accept ECJ jurisdiction, free movement of people , allow 'unfettered' free trade from all members, and have regulatory alignment (customs union).
Oh, and pay toward EU coffers.
I.e = Not Brexit.

[Retsdon]

53 minutes ago, Scully said:

'......you've gotta have a dream, if you don't have a dream, how you gonna have a dream come true? ' 😀

Ha! South Pacific. Good one.

[12gauge82]

1 hour ago, old man said:

I think so too, amazing the way us old workers who made and supported this country are denied a democratic view by some supposedly intelligent people. Not wishing to be insulting to those of that persuasion but perhaps it should be remembered that democracy does not always give the result wanted personally?

Probably the situation in Brussels will deteriorate fairly rapidly towards the end?

27 against 1 is it? Mm. Almost the same odds as previously?

Full circle, millions dead and good old political will put us back there again? A knighthood being the reward.

Spot on, it makes my blood boil when fresh out of school, uni students who have no life experience, have never fought for anything in their life, say "the old have robbed us of our future" I always think to myself, what, the same people who fought and died so the young have a future and freedom, so they can stand there and moan, the irony is unbelievable, the remainiacs then spout that the leavers are uneducated and didn't know what they voted for 😂

Edited September 21, 2018 by 12gauge82

[Scully]

33 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

Ha! South Pacific. Good one.

😀

[Retsdon]

15 hours ago, Rewulf said:

To be in the EFTA you need to accept ECJ jurisdiction, free movement of people , allow 'unfettered' free trade from all members, and have regulatory alignment (customs union).
Oh, and pay toward EU coffers.
I.e = Not Brexit.

Nearly all your points are addressed in today's blog entry.

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87001

[Rewulf]

6 hours ago, Retsdon said:

Nearly all your points are addressed in today's blog entry.

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87001

Having read Mr Norths blog on occasion, one thing becomes apparent, he really doesnt like Theresa May.

Whilst she wont be winning any personality contests (or any other contests) anytime soon, I think he is a little unfair on her.

He seems baffled by her refusal to accept a EFTA or EEA style agreement, basically calling her an idiot, because 'she doesnt know that such deals can be tailored to individual countries'
The fact both herself and the EU have a veritable army of highly paid advisors, who could perhaps explain the nuances of such 'deals' seems to go right over Mr Norths head.
Or , there could be other reasons, reasons perhaps not in the public domain, or indeed Mr Norths domain.

He says in the blog, that you dont necessarily have to take free movement for being a member of the EFTA.
Brussels say no single market access without free movement, you cannot cherry pick what parts of the EU ...ect, ect..

He says EFTA or EEA membership would be virtually the same as the Chequers deal anyway.
So why dont the EU tailor Chequers to suit the EFTA offer they have already made, you know..negotiate ?

The NI border issue must be sorted before anything can be finalised, says the EU .
But pushing the UK into a no deal scenario, because we cant go forward, how does that solve the issue ?
No deal = hard border in NI, at least from Brussels point of view.
We must preserve the good Friday agreement, say the EU.
So relax your demands on the border issue then ?

There are obviously underlying issues around EFTA/EEA that mean, in its vanilla form, are unacceptable, as in - not Brexit voted for.
However there are very similar issues surrounding Chequers, as in - not Brexit voted for.

But the great big blue starred elephant in the room is this, and we seem to keep forgetting.

In what way shape or form, is it in the interests of the EU (not Europe) to give us a favourable exit deal ?
If we get a trade and customs deal that doesnt cost a fortune in dodgy 'divorce' money, whats to stop many other disgruntled countries from having a vote , and bailing from the project ?
We are the template that would be used, 'We want the same deal as the UK please' would be the phrase.
If you get access to 0 or low tariff EU trade, plus you can cut your own world wide trade deals, with 0 or minimal contributions to EU coffers,  the whole project becomes progressively weaker, to the point where it simply reverts back to its EEC roots.
Where it should be.

In summary, the whole trigger article 50 (itself a stalling measure bolted on in hindsight) wait 2 years, then make such ridiculous demands that WTO rules and hard Brexit are  a virtual certainty, plan is reaching fruition.
As much as the EU keep carping on about 'we want a good deal for the UK' and 'we think we can still do a deal' and other carrot on a stick style meetings.
They dont, they are lying, and have no intention of doing such.
They want  economic damage done to us, but also reputational damage too.
They arent bothered about damage to their own 27 nations economies, because they are going to blame that on us.
And, they are certainly not bothered about Ireland or the good friday agreement, in fact I would go so far as to say, they would be very happy to see the troubles come back, then they could blame that on us too.

But this is the good bit, Ive said it before on other Brexit threads, May and many members of government privy to it ,and intuitive enough can , and have seen this coming, and are prepared for it.
All the concessions ,Florence, Chequers, massive divorce bill promises, are all part of the dance.
I believe she knew they would all be rejected, but she has made herself and the UK look amenable.
You could even stretch it and make BJ and DD resignations part of her charade, why have they not tried to oust her if she is so bad ?

Be prepared for more concessions, maybe even a breakthrough in talks in November, before it all comes crashing down into a no deal Brexit in March.
Hopefully, we can make it look like the EU are the bad guys for it , and not us.
 

[old man]

Not sure we have negotiators with the iron to achieve much, snivelling wimps springs to mind.

The level of discourtesy from the gang of 27 is astounding and insulting.

I think that any level of economic woe within the EU will be covered up anyway by their crooked and dysfunctional accounting system continuing in the old way.

[Gordon R]

The EU will have to cave in. May has said no second Referendum, no alternative plan. It's up to the EU. I don't see them passing up the chance of a generous pay-off. The troughs don't fill themselves.

Having seen the way the EU have treated the UK, why would any sane person want to stay in their little club?

[Rewulf]

2 minutes ago, Gordon R said:

The EU will have to cave in. May has said no second Referendum, no alternative plan. It's up to the EU. I don't see them passing up the chance of a generous pay-off. The troughs don't fill themselves.

Having seen the way the EU have treated the UK, why would any sane person want to stay in their little club?

I think plenty would want to leave, they are are just wary of what might happen, would the EU black ball them ?
Once we escape, whatever that might be, I think we may lead the way out.
The project is a failure, if it were a company the management would be sacked for incompetence, and it would be wound up.

[klatuveradanikto]

On 21/09/2018 at 13:50, Scully said:

'......you've gotta have a dream, if you don't have a dream, how you gonna have a dream come true? ' 😀

Someone's been watching red dwarf 

[JohnfromUK]

45 minutes ago, Gordon R said:

The troughs don't fill themselves.

Whilst the EU (and specifically the European Commission) are undoubtedly greedy, I suspect that they will find it quite easy to just collect the money elsewhere.  The reason they wanted a lot from us was to 'punish' us for dissenting from their dream - not because they find it difficult to raise cash.  It has never ceased to amaze me that Germany hands out cash so easily ....... but then coming from the UK which has run a massive deficit virtually all my life (apart from a very few 'Thatcher' years) I cannot see it from Germany's point of view.   They have an embarrassingly MASSIVE surplus ........ but want to buy power and influence - something Germany still wishes for and struggles with after 2 world wars.

45 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

if it were a company the management would be sacked for incompetence, and it would be wound up.

Sadly - this doesn't happen enough - and what we get is failures  wonly when the money runs out (rather than organised wind ups) like Carrillion, House of Fraser, BHS, Toys R Us (I could go on) - where the management looses little and the creditors, employees, contractors etc. bear the brunt.

[12gauge82]

I often wonder how the rest of the world views brexit, other EU countries (and by that I mean the general population, not the establishment), American, Australia ect, because our media is so biased, it's almost impossible to know.

[ShootingEgg]

5 hours ago, 12gauge82 said:

I often wonder how the rest of the world views brexit, other EU countries (and by that I mean the general population, not the establishment), American, Australia ect, because our media is so biased, it's almost impossible to know.

American citizens probably don't even know about it., their news is very inward facing. One person I know in the states didn't know about it 

[oowee]

6 hours ago, JohnfromUK said:

It has never ceased to amaze me that Germany hands out cash so easily ....... but then coming from the UK which has run a massive deficit virtually all my life (apart from a very few 'Thatcher' years) I cannot see it from Germany's point of view.   They have an embarrassingly MASSIVE surplus ........ but want to buy power and influence - something Germany still wishes for and struggles with after 2 world wars.

The EU is Germany's financial saviour a couple of extra billion euro in the pot (above the net 15 billion euro or so) for a hard UK brexit is small change for the profit from the euro. They just have to find an answer to their pension crisis. 

Unlike every other country in the world? 

[Yellow Bear]

1 minute ago, oowee said:

They just have to find an answer to their pension crisis. 

Why -- did they rob the funds like our so called last socialist government or like the remaoning limp damps are promoting again. Of course I also forgot, they have a huge number of non contributors to pay as well.   Ah well

[oowee]

12 hours ago, Yellow Bear said:

Why -- did they rob the funds like our so called last socialist government or like the remaoning limp damps are promoting again. Of course I also forgot, they have a huge number of non contributors to pay as well.   Ah well

Fund is the state. Ageing population with pension promises that cannot be met. They need more imports, more children or cut the pension bill.