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Predictions?


Scully
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12 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

Don't be silly, his silken touch will have left that handle cleaner, happier and more patriotic than it has ever been 😁

Silken touch :sick: more a slug like trail from his house to the poling station. The house opposite his is decorated in a rather taste full orange to contrast with the obscene blue adorning his fencing. :good:

Who is staying upto get the results as they come in? 

My wife has her office party tonight and I have to collect her from Bristol so that will be at least 0100. 

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2 minutes ago, oowee said:

My wife has her office party tonight and I have to collect her from Bristol so that will be at least 0100.

Couple of hours after that you should (probably) know the answer.  I won't stay up, but usually wake early, so will find out then.

6 minutes ago, itchy trigger said:

nobody there apart from the two electoral officers behind the desks when I voted at 11.45, I was the 139th voter!!

Much the same for me, though one other person turned up just as I was leaving.  Makes little difference here as we are in a very safe seat, leave voting, with a leave supporting incumbent MP, so I think there will be no surprises here.

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1 minute ago, Jaymo said:

I do not wish to stay up, but by my very nature, I know that I will have a sleepless night.

Have been following the betting odds given by William Hill, they have shortened this afternoon and so I’m inclined to go with Scully’s fears.

 

Stock market closed firm (up 3/4 of a %).  Often that gets very twitchy if they are worried.  On the other hand the pound is down (a bit) against the dollar, but not a 'plummet'.

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I've just been in after my kids school play, still people coming and going despite the time and weather. 

What always concerns me is they ask for no ID, polling card anything. 

I didn't think the results would be in till mid morning or dinner? Am I going to have to stay up?

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18 minutes ago, Mice! said:

I didn't think the results would be in till mid morning or dinner? Am I going to have to stay up?

Exit poll will be revealed soon after 10:00 tonight.  A large number of results are expected from about 3 a.m. (maybe if turnout is very high it may be a bit later?) including many 'marginals' which should give the flavour.  However, IF things are very close .......... who knows when the definitive answer will be?  The very late returns (some Scottish seats, some Northern Irish seats) are unlikely to change hands (and so can be 'predicted' with confidence).

My guess is that we will not know the final outcome until maybe 5 or 6 a.m. as I think it will be very tight whether Johnson gets a small majority, or another minority. 

Neither the stock market (rose a bit) nor the currency markets (pound only slightly down) show any signs of panic. 

Betting odds (Ladbrokes quotes as at 20:45) are Tories 1/25, Labour 12/1, Lib Dem 200/1, Brexit 500/1.

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2 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

Card's or ID are not mandatory, but checking name off electoral register is mandatory ...... and number from card makes finding the right entry quicker.

Thanks, I realise that. I was reacting to the post of Mice! saying they ‘ ask for no ID, polling card, anything’.

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Just now, Scully said:

Thanks, I realise that. I was reacting to the post of Mice! saying they ‘ ask for no ID, polling card, anything’.

Understood; it's a weak system and the papers are already full of reports that people have been to vote only to find their vote has already been cast.

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1 hour ago, JohnfromUK said:

Stock market closed firm (up 3/4 of a %).  Often that gets very twitchy if they are worried.  On the other hand the pound is down (a bit) against the dollar, but not a 'plummet'.

The bit I play with is down around 2% but they are not likely to know anymore than you or I. 

10 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

Card's or ID are not mandatory, but checking name off electoral register is mandatory ...... and number from card makes finding the right entry quicker.

I deliberately left my card in my pocket as I wanted to find out where i am listed as I have been turned back before when they have been unable to find my name. 

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4 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

Hopefully its isolated but some of it sounds odd.

One woman in London has alleged she was told someone had already voted from her address, while a Hackney resident claimed that someone she doesn't know has registered at her address and two others.

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28 minutes ago, Scully said:

Really? I have always been asked my name and address. 

That's not ID though is it, so the woman mentioned earlier has a list of people who haven't yet voted, probably there names and address, what stops her phoning the labour club and having X number of people walk in and give a name and address?? I've always thought it's a poor system. 

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2 minutes ago, Mice! said:

That's not ID though is it, so the woman mentioned earlier has a list of people who haven't yet voted, probably there names and address, what stops her phoning the labour club and having X number of people walk in and give a name and address?? I've always thought it's a poor system. 

It's designed to be open to all and deal with millions of voters. 

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10 minutes ago, Mice! said:

That's not ID though is it, so the woman mentioned earlier has a list of people who haven't yet voted, probably there names and address, what stops her phoning the labour club and having X number of people walk in and give a name and address?? I've always thought it's a poor system. 

Took my card in, he read my details and I said 'that's me' got paper and crossed a box, job done. No check I was who I said I was. 

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