Economic impact.

[udderlyoffroad]

On 01/04/2020 at 21:43, Walker570 said:

I missed it by a couple of months and was not a happy bear after they told me of their experiences around the world courtesy of the British Army. 

That's unless of course you ended up in Suez, or any other mis-guided overseas missions?  Or 'volunteered' for Porton Down?  At least with a professional army people are there of their own volition.

In the end of course, National Service was abolished exactly for the reason that it was an incredibly expensive youth training scheme, and you still needed a sizeable number of professional servicemen on top.

21 hours ago, TRINITY said:

HOWEVER !!! I believe we are so lucky in that we are no longer part of the E U.

We're still in the EU.  We just have gone past the point where there was any going back, the real negotiations have yet to start.  You can bet your mortgage the EU will demand the UK contributes to the EU's COVD 19 fallout.

However given the way every member state has pretty much pulled the shutters up (Schengen be damned) & done their own thing, and roundly ignored Italy and Spain's requests for assistance, the EU faces something of an existential crisis.

[TRINITY]

Dont forget about 1 million refugees squatting on the Greek islands, they are also screaming foul and demanding they should be shared out amongst the EU. However some of the old eastern block countries have told them to foxtrot oscar.

Also our delightfull neighbours in France have just renaged on  an NHS contract to supply face masks, citing that France must have priority. Fair enough , if that's the case in these possible times of food shortages we should insist all fishing in British waters should be solely for British food supply.

[SpringDon]

42 minutes ago, udderlyoffroad said:

<snip>

However given the way every member state has pretty much pulled the shutters up (Schengen be damned) & done their own thing, and roundly ignored Italy and Spain's requests for assistance, the EU faces something of an existential crisis.

Seems a bit like that. Does anyone know what happened to the hoards of eu ventilators that our “incompetent and duplicitous “ government missed out on?

[AVB]

This article has some good suggestions to try to minimise the risk to the economy.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52176668

[oowee]

43 minutes ago, AVB said:

This article has some good suggestions to try to minimise the risk to the economy.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52176668

Interesting piece. I thought the loans were at base (not sure where I got that from) but cearly not. 

[SpringDon]

9 hours ago, AVB said:

This article has some good suggestions to try to minimise the risk to the economy.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52176668

Fair enough but debt amnesty coupled with weak demand are perfect conditions for stagflation all the way to the bottom

[AVB]

6 hours ago, SpringDon said:

Fair enough but debt amnesty coupled with weak demand are perfect conditions for stagflation all the way to the bottom

True IF the debt amnesty doesn't stimulate demand. That's the objective of it. 

Slight OT but I have been reading a few economic reports from various Banks. All say that Europe is at a real crossroads and this could cause a dismantling of the EU, or at least it reverting to a trade treaty. Of course the 'EU' will do all it can to sell the benefits during this crisis but other than Germany taking a few Italian patients there seems to have been little cooperation. 

[SainIT]

Not little cooperation, no cooperation. Italy and Spain have been helped by China, USA,  Cuba, Ucraine, Russia and Albania. How many European countries do you see listed here? As for the socalled "Coronabonds" that we are hoping for to save our economy....Germany has decided it wont happen, so it wont. As soon as this crisis is over my Merc and the wife's Citroen are gone! I'll buy Japanese in future. This 4th Reich makes me puke! Frau Hitler rules the roost. Thank goodness most of my pension pot is in the UK.

[12gauge82]

On the subject of the EU, many of us including myself predicted if we didn't get out we would end up going down with the sinking ship at some point as the the EU was a project doomed to fail and we could see the cracks, much to the laughter of many remainers. I think this crisis demonstrates how vulnerable the EU really is, when it comes to the crunch, all these countries will look after number one, rather than the greater EU club.

[Walker570]

8 minutes ago, 12gauge82 said:

On the subject of the EU, many of us including myself predicted if we didn't get out we would end up going down with the sinking ship at some point as the the EU was a project doomed to fail and we could see the cracks, much to the laughter of many remainers. I think this crisis demonstrates how vulnerable the EU really is, when it comes to the crunch, all these countries will look after number one, rather than the greater EU club.

I and a number of other contributors to the comments section on MSN (now withdrawn as most comments where not left wing enough) some 12yrs ago suggested that the EU would implode in about 15yrs and with the added C19 I think that is about to happen early.  Thankfully we got out just in time and the idea that the EU will DEMAND anyhting is just ridiculous. They are between a rock and a hard place and they know it.

[AVB]

17 hours ago, SainIT said:

 Thank goodness most of my pension pot is in the UK.

You should diversify though in order to minimise risk. Not that any region is not going to be hit very hard by this but having all of the pot in the U.K. exposes it to country specific risks such as Brexit. That said I am overweight in the US and was in the process of rebalancing when when the markets crashed so feeling the pain of that. 

I think the financial impact of the lockdowns are beginning to become apparent. Three times as many firms in the U.K. have furloughed staff than the government thought would take advantage of the scheme, costing the taxpayer £40bn for three months. That as much as is spent on the police force for a whole year. 

[SainIT]

Diversifying now is pretty much impossible! On the LSE I have taken a moderate knock, but nothing like the almost 70 percent I took on the Milano exchange. And the US is also doing better than expected. Luckily both UK and the small piece I have on the NYSE are all in investment grade bluechips, whereas in Milano I speculate. But the  problem is that everthing is in shares, I don't trust bonds because they earn little....until the markets crash like now! But being an ex South African there are a few kilos of the yellow stuff in reserve as a last resort.

[oldypigeonpopper]

On 02/04/2020 at 15:03, blackbird said:

I fear for the younger generation it’s going to be tough for them.

hello, i very much agree, it will be a different life for them and their future children

[blackbird]

2 hours ago, AVB said:

You should diversify though in order to minimise risk. Not that any region is not going to be hit very hard by this but having all of the pot in the U.K. exposes it to country specific risks such as Brexit. That said I am overweight in the US and was in the process of rebalancing when when the markets crashed so feeling the pain of that. 

I think the financial impact of the lockdowns are beginning to become apparent. Three times as many firms in the U.K. have furloughed staff than the government thought would take advantage of the scheme, costing the taxpayer £40bn for three months. That as much as is spent on the police force for a whole 

I myself would rather spend £40bn of the tax payers money on protecting the economy & saving lives than spend in excess of £100bn on a high speed railway 

[discobob]

7 minutes ago, blackbird said:

I myself would rather spend £40bn of the tax payers money on protecting the economy & saving lives than spend in excess of £100bn on a high speed railway 

Too true although they will shout that it will stimulate the economy!!!

[Nuke]

4 hours ago, discobob said:

Too true although they will shout that it will stimulate the economy!!!

How? Get the virus faster out from London?

/M

[AVB]

1 hour ago, Nuke said:

How? Get the virus faster out from London?

/M

Simply because it employs people and employed people spend money causing more people to be employed etc. 

Don’t forget the £40bn for the furlough payments only runs for 3 months. If they extend it then that’s another £40bn. 

[blackbird]

Just to put it into prospective if the furlough goes on till Xmas that’s £120bn, back in 2008 the banks were bailed out by the British tax payers by £500bn total cost for the banking crisis was £850bn & not one banker was prosecuted. We bounced back from that crisis & we will bounce back from this one.

Edited April 8, 2020 by blackbird

[AVB]

55 minutes ago, blackbird said:

Just to put it into prospective if the furlough goes on till Xmas that’s £120bn, back in 2008 the banks were bailed out by the British tax payers by £500bn total cost for the banking crisis was £850bn & not one banker was prosecuted. We bounced back from that crisis & we will bounce back from this one.

That’s just the cost of furlough. It ignores all of the other costs and loss of revenue. We are talking Trillions. This will be far, far more expensive that the financial crisis. 

[blackbird]

As I have quoted before the younger generation  are in for a rough time, I would also not like to have my cash tied up in buy to let property not as we are looking down the barrel of major job losses together with the tough laws with evicting renters. 

Edited April 8, 2020 by blackbird

[AVB]

43 minutes ago, blackbird said:

As I have quoted before the younger generation  are in for a rough time, I would also not like to have my cash tied up in buy to let property not as we are looking down the barrel of major job losses together with the tough laws with evicting renters. 

I can’t see how property prices won’t take a significantly hit. Not sure by how much but could be very significant. That should benefit first time buyers but I think credit will be such short supply that mortgages will be difficult to come by. 

Fortunately I never got into BTL. 

[blackbird]

11 hours ago, AVB said:

I can’t see how property prices won’t take a significantly hit. Not sure by how much but could be very significant. That should benefit first time buyers but I think credit will be such short supply that mortgages will be difficult to come by. 

Fortunately I never got into BTL. 

That’s the problem the first time buyers won’t have a job to pay for a mortgage, the government got no alternative but to plough what ever it takes into the economy. But we will bounce back.

Edited April 9, 2020 by blackbird

[Vince Green]

1 hour ago, AVB said:

I can’t see how property prices won’t take a significantly hit. Not sure by how much but could be very significant. That should benefit first time buyers but I think credit will be such short supply that mortgages will be difficult to come by. 

Fortunately I never got into BTL. 

This is going to be a twenty year blip in the housing market. BTL was dead before this all started, now its double dead and that is going to cause a huge shortfall in the accommodation market.

 

[armsid]

Tonights news dairy farmer in liecs. having to dump 100,s ltrs of milk due to loss of demand due to cafes restaurants etc. closed and remarked it could finish a lot of dairy farms

[12gauge82]

9 hours ago, armsid said:

Tonights news dairy farmer in liecs. having to dump 100,s ltrs of milk due to loss of demand due to cafes restaurants etc. closed and remarked it could finish a lot of dairy farms

Feel for them, on the plus side, the ones remaining might get a fair price for milk in the future, it's been ridiculously low for years due to too much supply.