Sweden has a rise in Covid 19 cases.

[TIGHTCHOKE]

It would appear that the country we all look to for its management of the Covid 19 pandemic has a rise in the number of cases.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54797112

Could it be that there is no single good way to control this thing?

[Mice!]

3 hours ago, TIGHTCHOKE said:

Could it be that there is no single good way to control this thing?

No it's all Boris's fault 😉

[fatchap]

Didn't sweden opt for the "herd" method as a means of control?

[TIGHTCHOKE]

3 minutes ago, fatchap said:

Didn't sweden opt for the "herd" method as a means of control?

They certainly went for less strict controls and were lauded by many for it.

[Rewulf]

6 hours ago, TIGHTCHOKE said:

They certainly went for less strict controls and were lauded by many for it.

Much is said about this rise in Swedish cases, which considering the fact that Sweden didnt even have a lockdown, and that the case rise started at about the same time as every other Euro country, tells you a lot about how ineffective lockdowns are.
The simple difference is this, since July 25th , the average covid death rate per day has been 3 people.
Herd immunity, who knows ?

[Vince Green]

Sweden has a much smaller population relative to its area. They are not a major international airline hub, They didn't go abroad for their winter sports in Feb because they have plenty at home. All factors why we can't be compared with them.

[oscarsdad]

18 minutes ago, Vince Green said:

Sweden has a much smaller population relative to its area. They are not a major international airline hub, They didn't go abroad for their winter sports in Feb because they have plenty at home. All factors why we can't be compared with them.

And there was a Swedish epidemiologist on the radio last week saying that their government had suppressed releasing the true number of cases. 

[Rewulf]

38 minutes ago, Vince Green said:

Sweden has a much smaller population relative to its area. They are not a major international airline hub, They didn't go abroad for their winter sports in Feb because they have plenty at home. All factors why we can't be compared with them.

I wasnt really comparing, but population density in Stockholm is virtually the same as London, bearing in mind cases outside of there and Uppsala are rare.
The main thing is the uptick in cases as temperatures drop, the pubs and restaurants as contagion hubs, and the return of schools and universities.
ALL Euro countries have followed similar case trends, yet all had different scenarios.
Take for example in the UK , pubs and hospitality reopened end of July, yet it was mid Sept before cases started to rise in any significance ?

The main fact is, cases are trebled , quadrupled in some areas, yet actual deaths are between 20-30 % of what they were in April at its height.
The SAGE projections need deaths to be at least TWICE that of April, at least 2000 a day , every day from now, and its just not happening.

32 minutes ago, oscarsdad said:

And there was a Swedish epidemiologist on the radio last week saying that their government had suppressed releasing the true number of cases. 

One epidemiologist with no evidence does not a case make.

We had a certain Mr Ferguson who did some calculations on the back of a fag packet, and predicted 500,000 deaths from covid this year, and the best thing about it, the 'science' is somehow still clinging to this idea, despite strong evidence to the contrary.

From the Telegraph.

A research study was released today by Birmingham Uni and PHE regarding immunity to Covid-19, but little attention seems to have been paid to its staggering implications.

“Coronavirus patients have cellular immunity for at least six months after infection even when antibodies are undetectable.”

“Scientists found that memory T-cells were present in everyone they tested.”

“It suggests that more people may have had Covid than previously thought but have lost their antibody response, meaning it would not show up in surveillance testing.”

"To our knowledge, our study is the first in the world to show robust cellular immunity remains at six months after infection in individuals who experienced either mild/moderate or asymptomatic Covid-19. Six months is an early time point, and cells can live for a very long time."

What this means is that a far higher proportion of the UK population could be immune to Covid than has previously been admitted by those “scientists” who are currently forecasting the course of the “second wave”. The forecasts for which we are being locked down are most probably WRONG, and the errors will be paid for in the loss of lives and livelihoods directly resulting from lockdown.

Further justification for another damaging lockdown is based on a rising number of “infections”, without any clear explanation of how these figures are reached.

A spokesperson for Public Health England told Reuters: “It is important to note that detecting viral material by PCR does not indicate that the virus is fully intact and infectious, i.e. able to cause infection in other people. The isolation of infectious virus from positive individuals requires virus culture methods. These methods can only be conducted in laboratories with specialist containment facilities and are time consuming and complex.”

In other words, the redefinition of “positive test” to “case” to “infection” is deliberately WRONG. A positive test result may indicate either:

• The test subject is currently carrying the live virus and potentially INFECTIOUS

• The test subject has previously been infected, carries only dead virus traces, is NOT INFECTIOUS and is probably IMMUNE

In other words, an increase in positive tests could indicate an expanding pool of infectious people, or an equally expanding pool of people who are now immune. In fact, we could be well on the way to herd immunity disguised by the “scientists” as a second wave of the pandemic. It follows that any attempt to estimate the R rate, or the time taken for the number of infections to double, is bound to be WRONG.

It further follows that when the proponents of Lockdown insist that it is impossible to achieve herd immunity without a vaccine, they are also WRONG.

The Lockdown that is set to cause untold suffering is based on WRONG forecasts, themselves based on WRONG data and an extremely unscientific determination to ignore all evidence that contradicts the pre-determined doctrine that Lockdown is the best and only solution to Covid-19.

Is this country to be brought to its knees because the government is listening to the WRONG scientists?

[SpringDon]

This is what I find frustrating -  I know scientists can disagree but surely the above is true or it isn’t. And if the test is giving positive results for people who have had the virus and are immune then that has huge implications for the actual number of future hospital admissions.

And if a person can test negative for antibodies but still be protected by the T cell response, doesn’t that mean herd immunity will work and rather than locking down, we should be opening up?

[JDog]

We have a friend who is a teacher in Sweden. She tells us that she is the only person wearing a mask in her school.

[grrclark]

17 minutes ago, SpringDon said:

This is what I find frustrating -  I know scientists can disagree but surely the above is true or it isn’t. And if the test is giving positive results for people who have had the virus and are immune then that has huge implications for the actual number of future hospital admissions.

And if a person can test negative for antibodies but still be protected by the T cell response, doesn’t that mean herd immunity will work and rather than locking down, we should be opening up?

The point is that the "science" isn't absolute and it very rarely is.  It isn't a simple binary choice between one or the other.

The more data that comes to light from the vast amount of research activities that go on then almost every other bit of data previously identified needs to be reviewed again in consideration of the new evidence.  It is an evolving picture.

Some will seek to cherry pick evidence that suits their narrative, whether that be the SAGE advisory group, politicians or general commentators at large.

[SpringDon]

Of course it’s binary. An observable phenomenon exists or it doesn’t. The hypothesis to explain it is arguable hence the scientific method. Unless the fact is not supported by all data or all researchers, it’s true or false.

[Rewulf]

1 hour ago, SpringDon said:

And if a person can test negative for antibodies but still be protected by the T cell response, doesn’t that mean herd immunity will work and rather than locking down, we should be opening up?

Sweden took the bold decision to go the 'herd' route, I suppose in hindsight some would see it as a gamble.
Their results today do suggest that it was mostly successful.
Where as the very tight lockdowns in Italy , France and Spain, did nothing to alleviate the inevitable 2nd wave.

 

1 hour ago, grrclark said:

Some will seek to cherry pick evidence that suits their narrative, whether that be the SAGE advisory group, politicians or general commentators at large.

SAGE bases its modelling on worst case scenarios, whilst caution at the beginning was justified, using the same models now is a mistake.
Covid kills roughly twice as many of those infected as seasonal flu, with an average age of 82.
Yet to listen to some, its entirely capable of wiping out entire countries !

Im not saying it shouldnt be treated as a serious threat to public health, but the damage to the mental and economic health of this country far outweigh that threat.
There is a growing sense of dissatisfaction with the way governments are dealing with this, amidst a growing part of the scientific community that dont support lockdown as an effective measure.
Its even blatently stated that this probably isnt the last lockdown, and further measures will be required before the {out of date} vaccine is available, which may or may not be effective in the long term.

[AVB]

47 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

 

 

SAGE bases its modelling on worst case scenarios, whilst caution at the beginning was justified, using the same models now is a mistake.
 

There was a doctor on the radio the other day who said that if surgeons considered only worst case scenarios then no operations would ever take place as there is always a risk of death. 

[grrclark]

3 hours ago, SpringDon said:

Of course it’s binary. An observable phenomenon exists or it doesn’t. The hypothesis to explain it is arguable hence the scientific method. Unless the fact is not supported by all data or all researchers, it’s true or false.

It's not at all binary, it may be observable in some case, but not in others.  It is not absolute.

2 hours ago, Rewulf said:

SAGE bases its modelling on worst case scenarios, whilst caution at the beginning was justified, using the same models now is a mistake.
Covid kills roughly twice as many of those infected as seasonal flu, with an average age of 82.
Yet to listen to some, its entirely capable of wiping out entire countries !

Im not saying it shouldnt be treated as a serious threat to public health, but the damage to the mental and economic health of this country far outweigh that threat.
There is a growing sense of dissatisfaction with the way governments are dealing with this, amidst a growing part of the scientific community that dont support lockdown as an effective measure.
Its even blatently stated that this probably isnt the last lockdown, and further measures will be required before the {out of date} vaccine is available, which may or may not be effective in the long term.

I don't know the basis on which SAGE model, so cannot agree or disagree on that point, but broadly i am in agreement with what you are saying.

If they do use the worst case then they are cherry picking the evidence to suit their narrative or agenda, which is what i was referencing before.

[Rewulf]

3 hours ago, grrclark said:

If they do use the worst case then they are cherry picking the evidence to suit their narrative or agenda, which is what i was referencing before

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-long-winter-why-covid-restrictions-could-last-until-april

This piece insinuates the modelling Sage use is for worst case scenarios, but I would say the best proof is in their actions. 

[bavarianbrit]

We must go back to Germany on 20th Nov and it cannot be delayed due to the wife needing her stents changing regularly so we will then do the 14 day self isolating on arrival, really out of solidarity with the majority of common sense folk even if the science is unproven.

[Rewulf]

12 hours ago, bavarianbrit said:

We must go back to Germany on 20th Nov and it cannot be delayed due to the wife needing her stents changing regularly so we will then do the 14 day self isolating on arrival, really out of solidarity with the majority of common sense folk even if the science is unproven.

I didn't realise you had a choice. 

[bavarianbrit]

Choice of travel or not?

Ferry was booked before lockdown, I am 1.5 miles from Dover Eastern docks, I will avoid folk on the ship then drive in my pickup bubble until into Germany, then one retank and will arrive home in a village of 300 souls. Seems a sensible plan to me and I am not seeing a travel ban in the UK regulations. Please put me right if I have missed it.

Her gall bladder exit pipe stents are not permitted to be in her for more than 3 months (I do not know the reasons but that is the hospitals call) her gall bladder was removed last Xmas on 25th Dec as it was critical.

[dead eye alan]

On 03/11/2020 at 23:53, TIGHTCHOKE said:

It would appear that the country we all look to for its management of the Covid 19 pandemic has a rise in the number of cases.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54797112

Could it be that there is no single good way to control this thing?

You cannot control a virus full stop.

[TIGHTCHOKE]

Just now, dead eye alan said:

You cannot control a virus full stop.

Maybe not, but you can attempt to ensure the NHS does not reach absolute full capacity.

[dead eye alan]

1 minute ago, TIGHTCHOKE said:

Maybe not, but you can attempt to ensure the NHS does not reach absolute full capacity.

Agreed but it only takes common sense to achieve that.

[TIGHTCHOKE]

Just now, dead eye alan said:

Agreed but it only takes common sense to achieve that.

When did you see any common sense recently?

It has disappeared from every where lately!

[dead eye alan]

41 minutes ago, TIGHTCHOKE said:

When did you see any common sense recently?

It has disappeared from every where lately!

Along with all the pigeons in Leicestershire.😎

[Yellow Bear]

1 minute ago, dead eye alan said:

Along with all the pigeons in Leicestershire.😎

perhaps they are self isolating