Missing dog walker Nicola Bulley

[Westley]

2 minutes ago, Mungler said:

Really?

Most people who do go missing don’t go missing still connected to a work conference call….

But you’re right, they probably shouldn’t bother investigating at all and what investigation they do do should just go through the motions. 

With over 40 Police Officers assigned to this investigation,  at what point do you scale it down  ?

[Mungler]

26 minutes ago, Westley said:

With over 40 Police Officers assigned to this investigation,  at what point do you scale it down  ?

They stopped a week ago. The signalling they are now doing in the media is - she’s gone, we don’t think she’s coming back and she’s probably topped herself, we’re out.

But that’s still just a theory absent evidence or a body.

Interesting though the partner came out to say he didn’t think she went in the river - and who would know her best?

The river search team have said ‘if we’d been told she was likely to be a suicide and not someone who just fell into the river, we’d have done a different search’.

The public interest is understandable given all the rather unique features of this matter notwithstanding how many people go missing each year. 

And just out of interest, just how has the police investigation specifically been hampered by social media, public interest or the press? Don’t tell me, there’s 39 officers dedicated to reading internet forums and Facey to get some clues?

.

Edited February 16, 2023 by Mungler

[Gordon R]

The release of details of her condition seemed solely aimed at covering the Police's backs. I am in the dark as to how this has helped the investigation. Indeed, the withholding of it might well have hampered the river search.

[Westley]

1 hour ago, Mungler said:

They stopped a week ago. The signalling they are now doing in the media is - she’s gone, we don’t think she’s coming back and she’s probably topped herself, we’re out.

But that’s still just a theory absent evidence or a body.

Interesting though the partner came out to say he didn’t think she went in the river - and who would know her best?

The river search team have said ‘if we’d been told she was likely to be a suicide and not someone who just fell into the river, we’d have done a different search’.

The public interest is understandable given all the rather unique features of this matter notwithstanding how many people go missing each year. 

And just out of interest, just how has the police investigation specifically been hampered by social media, public interest or the press? Don’t tell me, there’s 39 officers dedicated to reading internet forums and Facey to get some clues?

.

AND pure speculation on your behalf  ??

When you have people travelling from all over the Country to 'help in the search', then just doing their own thing upon arrival, how could it possibly help  ?

[Bigbob]

Aye released yesterday she is a alcoholic and police where called to her house a few times  the latest being last week to a disturbance complaint 

[Rewulf]

4 minutes ago, Bigbob said:

Aye released yesterday she is a alcoholic and police where called to her house a few times  the latest being last week to a disturbance complaint 

Did I read that the last call out included a crisis team? 

Usually they turn up when someone has threatened suicide? 

[Westley]

1 hour ago, Rewulf said:

Did I read that the last call out included a crisis team? 

Usually they turn up when someone has threatened suicide? 

That is correct.

[Mice!]

Not a clue who he is, but this is the sort of thing that's going on, which can't help anyone. 

[TIGHTCHOKE]

And now the Home Secretary has suggested she is not happy with the investigation and Lancashire Police have apparently referred themselves to a Watchdog!

"the Independent Office for Police Conduct (IOPC) said: “This afternoon we received a referral from Lancashire Constabulary regarding contact the force had with Nicola Bulley on 10 January, prior to her disappearance.

 

 

GORDON BENNETT!

[TIGHTCHOKE]

10 hours ago, Mice! said:

Not a clue who he is, but this is the sort of thing that's going on, which can't help anyone. 

Oh I know who he is...............................He's a BURK in a vest who should know better!

[ditchman]

"they" have mentioned that the river is tidal...and make the assumption that the stretch where the bench is ...is subject to tidal variations ....they also mention there is a weir...

1. water does not run uphill
2. bodies are not very good at jumping or lifting themselves over weir's...(unless the upper reach is in full flood...which has not been the case due to lack of rain on the catcment area)

these are some of the things which make the case so strange....."agency's saying different things"........so that leaves the field open to simple muppets like me to ask questions.

can anyone confirm that there is a weir...????

[Mungler]

11 hours ago, Mice! said:

Not a clue who he is, but this is the sort of thing that's going on, which can't help anyone. 

He was arrested for a public order offence - seeking attention and subscribers no doubt. 

He is a self promoter who has a tick tick channel to run and isn’t a member of the public per se. 

Apparently he did however join in with locals and other members of the public to search back gardens (something the police didn’t do), and no he wasn’t arrested for that.

Latest, turns out the police misread the fit bit watch data and her last ‘known’ movements are now ‘unknown’.

So, the police investigation consists of their ‘theory’ she topped herself by jumping in the river, and everything else is unknown. Top stuff. 

Brilliant. No wonder the force have now self referred themselves to the watchdog.

[Mice!]

6 minutes ago, Mungler said:

He is a self promoter who has a tick tick channel to run and isn’t a member of the public per se. 

He's not a professional is he! Like you say he's out for attention. 

9 minutes ago, Mungler said:

Apparently he did however join in with locals and other members of the public to search back gardens (something the police didn’t do), and no he wasn’t arrested for that.

I can't imagine anyone nearby hasn't already looked in their gardens except maybe any old dears, it's hardly rained for the last 3 weeks so people have been out clearing in gardens.

11 minutes ago, Mungler said:

Brilliant. No wonder the force have now self referred themselves to the watchdog.

I doubt they had any choice given the amount of coverage the case has had, but we're talking about an adult here, who could quite easily have just walked away,  jumped on a train or bus and gone somewhere, it unfortunately happens. 

[TIGHTCHOKE]

1 minute ago, Mice! said:

I doubt they had any choice given the amount of coverage the case has had, but we're talking about an adult here, who could quite easily have just walked away,  jumped on a train or bus and gone somewhere, it unfortunately happens. 

BUT, if she had left the area and used public transport there would be video recordings of that. If she had been taken, that would have been seen at some stage.

I do NOT know what happened, but I think the Police are very much OUT of their depth!

[oldypigeonpopper]

Hello, is it turning into a circus as we say ? , Amatour sleuths , rubber neckers, sky news , what the husband, children, family and friends are going through must be hell, 

[henry d]

1 hour ago, ditchman said:

"they" have mentioned that the river is tidal...and make the assumption that the stretch where the bench is ...is subject to tidal variations ....they also mention there is a weir...

1. water does not run uphill
2. bodies are not very good at jumping or lifting themselves over weir's...(unless the upper reach is in full flood...which has not been the case due to lack of rain on the catcment area)

these are some of the things which make the case so strange....."agency's saying different things"........so that leaves the field open to simple muppets like me to ask questions.

can anyone confirm that there is a weir...????

The problem is no one knows where she went into the water, the assumption is next to the bench where dog , lead, and phone were found but the weir is just 100m or so away across the field. Yes these are just assumptions and I only know about the weir due to google mapping but it is interesting to note that you can see water gushing over it. The weir is probably towards the upper reach of the tide similar to the weir at Wylam on the Tyne, so the flow would be stronger on an ebb and less or upstream on a flow. 

Edited February 17, 2023 by henry d
Typo

[old'un]

2 hours ago, ditchman said:

"they" have mentioned that the river is tidal...and make the assumption that the stretch where the bench is ...is subject to tidal variations ....they also mention there is a weir...

1. water does not run uphill
2. bodies are not very good at jumping or lifting themselves over weir's...(unless the upper reach is in full flood...which has not been the case due to lack of rain on the catcment area)

these are some of the things which make the case so strange....."agency's saying different things"........so that leaves the field open to simple muppets like me to ask questions.

can anyone confirm that there is a weir...????

Yes there is a weir, its been a few years since we were there but if I remember correctly it would be difficult for a body to go over it.

[TIGHTCHOKE]

3 minutes ago, old'un said:

Yes there is a weir, its been a few years since we were there but if I remember correctly it would be difficult for a body to go over it.

UNLESS it was a LIVE body and wanted to get over the weir.

[JohnfromUK]

3 minutes ago, old'un said:

Yes there is a weir, its been a few years since we were there but if I remember correctly it would be difficult for a body to go over it.

My understanding is that weirs on tidal rivers are partrly to control the water to ensure there is a constant(ish) depth and flow above the weir, but also to prevent brackish water coming back upstream.  To that end, I would expect there to be a very near constant flow rate over the weir regardless of the state of the tide - and only the fall from the lip of the weir to the tidal level below to vary.  Hence anything that got carried downstream to the weir would be unlikely to go over unless the river is either very fast flowing or in spate - and quite independant of the tide. 

IF she had walked down to below the weir (apparently quite close, but no evidence to suggest this happened) - access to flowing water might depend very on the state of the tide.  For example the Severn - on its tidal stretches - has huge expanses of mud flats when the tide is out which would make it very difficult to access the flowing water.  However when the tide is in, there may be quite fast water to the banks. 

I have not heard mention of the tide state at the time (which is a very narrow window in tide terms) she went missing.

[henry d]

21 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

I have not heard mention of the tide state at the time (which is a very narrow window in tide terms) she went missing.

Fleetwood has a large tidal range but the wyre is a small river so I would expect it is mainly just a river flow for most of the time but the tide will come in fast and depart fast too. This is a graphic of the tides at Perth, which is about 15 miles inland from the sea proper. 

As for the St Michael's area I can't say for sure. 

[ditchman]

WEIRD...STRANGE..............

BBC just interveiwed the old boy who made the discovery..........quote unquote..."saw the phone on the bench and the dog tied up and made a phone call reporting it "

this is what we are talking about...........everybody is saying something different.........

[old'un]

45 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

My understanding is that weirs on tidal rivers are partrly to control the water to ensure there is a constant(ish) depth and flow above the weir, but also to prevent brackish water coming back upstream.  To that end, I would expect there to be a very near constant flow rate over the weir regardless of the state of the tide - and only the fall from the lip of the weir to the tidal level below to vary.  Hence anything that got carried downstream to the weir would be unlikely to go over unless the river is either very fast flowing or in spate - and quite independant of the tide. 

IF she had walked down to below the weir (apparently quite close, but no evidence to suggest this happened) - access to flowing water might depend very on the state of the tide.  For example the Severn - on its tidal stretches - has huge expanses of mud flats when the tide is out which would make it very difficult to access the flowing water.  However when the tide is in, there may be quite fast water to the banks. 

I have not heard mention of the tide state at the time (which is a very narrow window in tide terms) she went missing.

As I say its been a few years ago now but we were stopping in a caravan about 4 miles down stream of St Michaels, the site was on the banks of the river and when the tide came in the water was very fast moving.

We had a couple of trips to St Michaels and if I remember the water below the weir was very shallow, running over rocks and boulders, if the body had gone over the weir I think it would have got stuck but obviously, and as you say, on a high tide it could have been washed down stream.

[TIGHTCHOKE]

Dog tied up you say, no wonder it was dry!

[ditchman]

1 hour ago, TIGHTCHOKE said:

Dog tied up you say, no wonder it was dry!

its all totally ***llax**..............i dont think anyone has a clue.........i wouldnt be surprised if she eventually turns up alive...

Edited February 17, 2023 by ditchman

[old'un]

There is another thing about the river down stream from St Michaels and that is when the tide is out the river is very shallow with wide sand/mud banks, you would defiantly spot a body on the banks or the water.

Here’s an ariel view of the caravan site and the river, the big caravan park in the foreground is Windy Harbour and the small site we stayed on is in the distance next to the river, this is looking inland towards St Michaels.

Ariel View….https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@53.8555606,-2.9316447,3a,84.3y,323.57h,68.26t/data=!3m8!1e1!3m6!1sAF1QipN6_q2LxALisq5LWhKzhtnoRwnYXQ16Jrofv2Ue!2e10!3e11!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipN6_q2LxALisq5LWhKzhtnoRwnYXQ16Jrofv2Ue%3Dw203-h100-k-no-pi-0-ya21.79668-ro-0-fo100!7i4096!8i2048