Wagner

[Mungler]

So, I know the Russia Ukraine ‘thing’ is blue touch paper stuff on here, but it appears that Yevgeny Prigozhin has just declared war on the Kremlin (who in turn has tried to rub out 25,000 Wagner troops with artillery and helicopter gunships).

If we can’t discuss the 3 day SMO in Ukraine, can we chat about the imminent Russian civil war?

Stuff just got really really weird and serious.

[Vince Green]

You have to admit he is probably the only person with the resources to unseat Putin. Which makes him a very interesting player

Putin should be very worried because he appears to be publicly calling Putin out as a liar. This is the point when the dog turns on its master. He can only have one reason for doing that

Edited June 23, 2023 by Vince Green

[Mungler]

58 minutes ago, Vince Green said:

You have to admit he is probably the only person with the resources to unseat Putin. Which makes him a very interesting player

Putin should be very worried because he appears to be publicly calling Putin out as a liar. This is the point when the dog turns on its master. He can only have one reason for doing that

Unless the Kremlin can iron him out pronto then it’s civil war. Word is however that he’s got some big name support declaring for him - unsurprisingly there’s plenty that have had enough of the 3 day SMO and Putin and his cronies.

Now we hold our breath to see who gets to hold the ussr steering wheel next.

Very interesting. Moreover, that’s 25,000 professional Wagner soldiers coming off the battlefield.

 

[Cosmicblue]

Being a cynical fellow I wondered if this is information warfare and the Russian thug has said no such thing - but its been widely reported across the media channels.  Those with insecurity baked-in within the Russian military leadership might assume 'no smoke without fire' and he's toast anyway? 

[enfieldspares]

Some media note he's not calling out Putin but Putin's military advisors. They speculate that this is to set these military advisors to take the fall for Putin.

[ditchman]

very difficult to access what 1/2 dozen branches of Mafia will do.......so many heads in there ..all to lose/gain something.....cross between a wasps nest and a open sewer and a meat grinder.........

the big boys want the grand prix back and their multi million £ yaghts.....gucci....trips to london  etc.....they are fed up being poor and board...........

[Mungler]

So, lots of varying reports but broadly Wagner are moving on Rostov in numbers and it is going to be mutiny / civil war.

Reports of a 50km column of Wagner mercenaries moving unchecked and unstopped (who would try eh?) and the helicopter gunships ordered to attack the column by the Ministry refused (again, picking the wrong side now would be rather bad for one’s health).

Russian state media even reporting it pretty straight - perhaps a mix of ‘had enough’ and ‘hedging bets’.

Prigozhin now calling himself a politician and the circle is complete.

The best bit, is that in one of the earlier videos released by Prigozhin yesterday, he let loose that this ‘SMO’ wasn’t about NATO threat or de-natzification but a play for more land, more resource and more power by the robber baron factions closest to Putin and who just wanted ‘more’. And which, if you cast your minds back, was was what the sane amongst us were saying all along.

If Prigozhin can stay alive long enough this is going to get interesting if not as equally (if not more) dangerous for the rest of us as Russia heads for civil war. Keep an eye out for people falling out of windows.

 

[TIGHTCHOKE]

BBC News reporting Leader of Wagner Group being arrested.

[Mungler]

16 minutes ago, TIGHTCHOKE said:

BBC News reporting Leader of Wagner Group being arrested.

Not a chance.

Warrant issued for his arrest (meaningless if he has 25,000 trained men standing with him) and actually ‘arrested’ are worlds apart.

[JohnfromUK]

Operating a 'normal' state military system - and having a large powerful 'private army' under separate leadership was never anything but a huge risk.  One word; Egos.

[TIGHTCHOKE]

26 minutes ago, Mungler said:

Not a chance.

Warrant issued for his arrest (meaningless if he has 25,000 trained men standing with him) and actually ‘arrested’ are worlds apart.

Oh I quite agree, just might give the Ukrainians a break while this in fighting rolls on?

[Stonepark]

Wagner was set up by the Russian Military Intelligence (GRU) and functions solely at the disgression of the Russian Government who are it's sole arms and ammunition suppliers.

Prigozhin is not the founder but the current CEO but reports back to the founders (his main business being catering in the past and is not military trained).

The Western press is having wet dreams about a potential coup but in truth Prigozhin can be replaced quite quickly and easily as his no2 who joined some 4 months ago was previously the main logistics officer of the SMO and can simply step in and take over.

Prigozhin is losing support and reputation and is becoming more desperate, hence the statements.

 

[islandgun]

I remember Prigozhin wanting Putin to to nuke Ukraine a few months ago..evil !!!

[12gauge82]

29 minutes ago, Stonepark said:

Wagner was set up by the Russian Military Intelligence (GRU) and functions solely at the disgression of the Russian Government who are it's sole arms and ammunition suppliers.

Prigozhin is not the founder but the current CEO but reports back to the founders (his main business being catering in the past and is not military trained).

The Western press is having wet dreams about a potential coup but in truth Prigozhin can be replaced quite quickly and easily as his no2 who joined some 4 months ago was previously the main logistics officer of the SMO and can simply step in and take over.

Prigozhin is losing support and reputation and is becoming more desperate, hence the statements.

 

Sounds like the entire Russian position is getting desperate. Meanwhile it appears ukraine has made decent gains in the east and south which while too early to pop the champagne, I'm sure we can all agree is great news 🥂

[ditchman]

christ this is complicated

[Stonepark]

24 minutes ago, 12gauge82 said:

Sounds like the entire Russian position is getting desperate. Meanwhile it appears ukraine has made decent gains in the east and south which while too early to pop the champagne, I'm sure we can all agree is great news 🥂

Wagner is stepping back is 25,000 men, Ukrainian losses since starting the offensive are somewhere in the region of 14,000 men, a third to half their Western donated equipment (tanks ifv's and afv's) and all they have captured is a few hamlets and a few thousand acres on farm land at certain points on the line.

Meanwhile in other areas, Russia has captured a similar amount of hamlets and land but the Western press has been ignoring this.

Ukraine is now talking about mobilising another 100,000 (50,000 new and 50,000 contract renewal), whilst Wagners dallience to the South (for more money as their current orders\contract ended in June) has just justified Russia to raise another 500,000 and put them into the area for "security".

Ukraine is burning through men, kit and money at an unsustainable rate and Russia is simply grinding through Ukrainian resources until there is nothing to stop a counter offensive reaching Kiev and Odessa and effectively game over.

[Mungler]

43 minutes ago, Stonepark said:

Wagner is stepping back is 25,000 men, Ukrainian losses since starting the offensive are somewhere in the region of 14,000 men, a third to half their Western donated equipment (tanks ifv's and afv's) and all they have captured is a few hamlets and a few thousand acres on farm land at certain points on the line.

Meanwhile in other areas, Russia has captured a similar amount of hamlets and land but the Western press has been ignoring this.

Ukraine is now talking about mobilising another 100,000 (50,000 new and 50,000 contract renewal), whilst Wagners dallience to the South (for more money as their current orders\contract ended in June) has just justified Russia to raise another 500,000 and put them into the area for "security".

Ukraine is burning through men, kit and money at an unsustainable rate and Russia is simply grinding through Ukrainian resources until there is nothing to stop a counter offensive reaching Kiev and Odessa and effectively game over.

We’ll soon see.

We’ll also see the appetite of Russian regulars wanting to fight hardened Wagner loonies.

The Russian army is in Ukraine. If Wagner get supplied and gets a wiggle on…

 

edit 

 

I should add that I’m not cheering on any particular psychopath here. I’m cheering on two psychopaths going at it and one psychopath pulling 25,000 well rained, battle hardened front line troops away to head towards Moscow and no doubt Moscow will now have to re-divert an even greater level of resource to stop him on his way / meet him. 

Not too sure how keen Russian regulars will be on fighting Wagner - if it were me I’d clean his windscreen and whistle him and his 25,000 murderers through my checkpoint as fast as possible.

Nonetheless, outstandingly good news and fortune for Ukraine 👍

Edited June 24, 2023 by Mungler

[Gordon R]

Quote

Not too sure how keen Russian regulars will be on fighting Wagner - if it were me I’d clean his windscreen and whistle him and his 25,000 murderers through my checkpoint as fast as possible.

Gotta love this. 🙂

[Rewulf]

1 hour ago, Mungler said:

Not too sure how keen Russian regulars will be on fighting Wagner

Not sure how keen Russian wagners will be firing on Russian regulars. 

There is another scenario, is this just some kind of misinformation stunt, a feint, to bolster UKR confidence into committing more meat into the grinder? 

I think no one would argue that UKR much anticipated counteroffensive, with modern NATO kit, has been somewhat underwhelming so far, western allies can only commit so much to UKR without results, and many analysts have labeled this their last chance before the western aid plug is pulled. 

[Mungler]

7 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

Not sure how keen Russian wagners will be firing on Russian regulars. 

There is another scenario, is this just some kind of misinformation stunt, a feint, to bolster UKR confidence into committing more meat into the grinder? 

I think no one would argue that UKR much anticipated counteroffensive, with modern NATO kit, has been somewhat underwhelming so far, western allies can only commit so much to UKR without results, and many analysts have labeled this their last chance before the western aid plug is pulled. 

Nope. Gone too far and Putin on Russian telly too - well one of him eh?

Denys Davidov suspects there may be a deal between Prighozhyn and Putin, so Shoigu and Gerasimov get the blame for the army’s performance in Ukraine. 

Now that works 

[Rem260]

10 hours ago, enfieldspares said:

Some media note he's not calling out Putin but Putin's military advisors. They speculate that this is to set these military advisors to take the fall for Putin.

This was my first thought. It gives Putin a chance to come clean about all the loses and state he was lied too. Thus saving face.

[Mungler]

3 hours ago, Stonepark said:

Prigozhin can be replaced quite quickly….

What, quickly, like in 3 days, give or take over a year? 😉

[Mungler]

1 hour ago, Rewulf said:

Not sure how keen Russian wagners will be firing on Russian regulars. 

They’ve just downed a military transport place (drawing troops back from the front line to Moscow) and are now an 8 hour drive from Moscow.

This is a ‘wow’ moment and unfolding in real time.

Despite the spin and being reminded of historic Ukrainian losses etc, this is seriously damaging if not disastrous for a large chunk of Moscow.

No doubt Putin the master tactician already has a plan for this though, right? 

[12gauge82]

2 hours ago, Stonepark said:

Wagner is stepping back is 25,000 men, Ukrainian losses since starting the offensive are somewhere in the region of 14,000 men, a third to half their Western donated equipment (tanks ifv's and afv's) and all they have captured is a few hamlets and a few thousand acres on farm land at certain points on the line.

Meanwhile in other areas, Russia has captured a similar amount of hamlets and land but the Western press has been ignoring this.

Ukraine is now talking about mobilising another 100,000 (50,000 new and 50,000 contract renewal), whilst Wagners dallience to the South (for more money as their current orders\contract ended in June) has just justified Russia to raise another 500,000 and put them into the area for "security".

Ukraine is burning through men, kit and money at an unsustainable rate and Russia is simply grinding through Ukrainian resources until there is nothing to stop a counter offensive reaching Kiev and Odessa and effectively game over.

Unless wagner power grab is defeated quickly in Russia, I think Mr Putin will have bigger things to worry about than his invasion of Ukraine. I'm sure Ukraine will capitalise very quickly and I don't think Russian conscripts are going to want to fight on two fronts, with Ukraine on one side and Wagner the other.

Time will tell 🍿

1 minute ago, Mungler said:

 

No doubt Putin the master tactician already has a plan for this though, right? 

👆😂😂😂

[Mungler]

Lipetsk is a 7 hour drive to Moscow.

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1672550352032342016?s=20