Election forecast result

[chrisjh]

with a few weeks off i thought it might be interesting to have a punt at the election outcome and implications so here goes

 

Con 290 seats

Lab 270 seats

Lib 20 seats

SNP 44 seats

Green 0 seats

UKIP 1 seat

DUP 9 seats

Plaid C 3 seats

SDLP 3 seats

other 10 seats

 

i forecast a coalition between Lab & Lib with a loose strings attached SNP arrangement held together on the basis they all don't want to have an EU vote, the trade off could well be a further Scottish devolution vote.

 

 

 

 

[TIGHTCHOKE]

Okay, here's my forecast;

 

Con 300 seats

Lab 245 seats

Lib 20 seats

SNP 55 seats

Green 1 seat

UKIP 16 seats

DUP 7 seats

Plaid C 3 seats

SDLP 3 seats

other 20 seats

Edited April 16, 2015 by TIGHTCHOKE

[Penelope]

GOD HELP US ALL!!!!

 

(in answer to the OP)

Edited April 16, 2015 by Penelope

[grrclark]

That is likely pretty close to the final outcome in numbers, I think maybe a few seats less for conservative and a few more for Lib and Lab, all the rest is just background noise. Unless any party can achieve an outright majority in formal coalition I don't believe there will be one, they need to make sure that they can carry the house on key votes otherwise there is no point.

 

I think we will see an attempt at a Conservative minority government with voting based on confidence and supply (grace and favour) with the other parties, but the key decider will be what happens at the Queen's speech. If Labour and SNP have enough between them, or even throwing in Plaid Cymru, Green and SDLP into that mix to vote against the Conservative plan then it will revert to a Labour minority government and again will be based on confidence and supply.

[big bad lindz]

I cant see the SNP geting anywhere near that many seats. As I have mentioned in other posts the SNP thought that the yes vote last September was going to be a walk in the park and remember that it was not only SNP supporters that voted yes, a good percentage of other party supporters did.

There will be a number of Lib Dem seats lost to SNP and I dont think the Cons will win any in Scotland but there is an off chance UKIP may take a seat or two. Unfortunatly, UKIP do not have anyone standing in my area.

[guest1957]

Whatever the outcome, I think it will result in the fixed term parliament act being repealed.

[kdubya]

labour enough snp enough UKIP enough.

 

that will do.

 

KW

[Gordon R]

Whatever the outcome, I think it will result in the fixed term parliament act being repealed.

 

Why?

[Bazooka Joe]

labour enough snp enough UKIP enough.

 

that will do.

 

KW

 

LAB/SNP coalition betting has come in from 20-1 to 12-1, interesting times ahead.

[robbiep]

I'll predict that a lot of those saying they will by UKIP voters will twig on that, if they vote UKIP, then they get Labour/SNP. In the ballot box, they will vote conservative, as they are the only party which is promising an in/out referendum on Europe.

 

Result : Conservative overall majority (possibly with Ulster Unionist support). Lib Dems get steamrollered, SNP virtually win Scotland, the smirking cow goes for another referendum within 2 years. And probably wins it.

[keg]

I really cannot believe that Labour will be allowed back in in any shape or form, after the last mess, god help us if they do.

[Scully]

I'll predict that a lot of those saying they will by UKIP voters will twig on that, if they vote UKIP, then they get Labour/SNP. In the ballot box, they will vote conservative, as they are the only party which is promising an in/out referendum on Europe.

 

Result : Conservative overall majority (possibly with Ulster Unionist support). Lib Dems get steamrollered, SNP virtually win Scotland, the smirking cow goes for another referendum within 2 years. And probably wins it.

I'll also predict that there are UKIP voters who twigged onto this some time ago but will still vote UKIP. I know this because I'm one of them. Some will vote UKIP because they are also aware that despite what Cameron says or promises, they know that the Conservatives will NOT give an in/out referendum on Europe.

This will be the first time since 1978 I have ever voted for a party other than Conservative, but it wont be the last.

[fenboy]

I really cannot believe that Labour will be allowed back in in any shape or form, after the last mess, god help us if they do.

 

I quite agree , how soon people seem to have forgot the last labour goverment brought this country to its knees and it has taken this Tory goverment this amount of time to get us back on track.

[guest1957]

 

Why?

I think it will be the only issue a majority of the house could be encouraged to agree on. I think there will be another GE in the next two years.

[Gordon R]

I can't see anyone agreeing to it, let alone a majority.

[Danger-Mouse]

I'll predict that a lot of those saying they will by UKIP voters will twig on that, if they vote UKIP, then they get Labour/SNP. In the ballot box, they will vote conservative, as they are the only party which is promising an in/out referendum on Europe.

 

Result : Conservative overall majority (possibly with Ulster Unionist support). Lib Dems get steamrollered, SNP virtually win Scotland, the smirking cow goes for another referendum within 2 years. And probably wins it.

 

I was reading one of the papers today and they were suggesting, or reporting on recent polls that just a 2 per cent increase in UKIP votes could cost Labour up to 16 seats. You, and other people, seem to forget that it`s not just people in Conservative held areas that are saying they will vote UKIP. I live in a Labour stronghold but everyone I`ve talked to has said they will be voting UKIP. Voting Conservative around here would be absolutely pointless, but UKIP... who knows.

[grrclark]

I can't see anyone agreeing to it, let alone a majority.

Me either Gordon, I actually think that the fixed term is a good thing, it means that parties cannot spring an election at times of higher popularity. I would like to see a whole lot more reform of our current system too, I'm not a fan of PR, but we are facing a scenario where a party has 4% share of the vote and 40+ seats and another party will have 14% share of the vote and will be lucky to have 2 seats.

 

Regardless of my thoughts on either party, SNP & UKIP, that is a fundamentally flawed system. Likewise with Scottish MPs being allowed to vote on English/Welsh only matters, that is also wrong.

[rodp]

 

I was reading one of the papers today and they were suggesting, or reporting on recent polls that just a 2 per cent increase in UKIP votes could cost Labour up to 16 seats. You, and other people, seem to forget that it`s not just people in Conservative held areas that are saying they will vote UKIP. I live in a Labour stronghold but everyone I`ve talked to has said they will be voting UKIP. Voting Conservative around here would be absolutely pointless, but UKIP... who knows.

[norfolk dumpling]

Me thinks the screw-up Labour made is still fresh in most peoples minds and most of the culprits (Balls, Cooper, Millipedes, Harman) are still there so they wont get in. The Nationalist parties will damage them too so I see Tories getting a few more seats but not a working majority. We could have another coalition but with Lib Dems having slightly less influence. Probably the best of a bad job for me.

[TIGHTCHOKE]

Me thinks the screw-up Labour made is still fresh in most peoples minds and most of the culprits (Balls, Cooper, Millipedes, Harman) are still there so they wont get in. The Nationalist parties will damage them too so I see Tories getting a few more seats but not a working majority. We could have another coalition but with Lib Dems having slightly less influence. Probably the best of a bad job for me.

 

Is that actually possible for them to have less influence than they have over the last 5 years?

[team tractor]

 

I quite agree , how soon people seem to have forgot the last labour goverment brought this country to its knees and it has taken this Tory goverment this amount of time to get us back on track.

Totally disagree. The world was on it's knees so you can only do so much.

Labour spent loads on hospitals, army, schools and we see this first hand as we supply them.

 

Now it's 2 weeks for a doctors appointment , army cut, hospitals a crowded with no staff.

 

 

 

What you have to remember is who ever you vote for the government will always get in

[krugerandsmith]

I'll also predict that there are UKIP voters who twigged onto this some time ago but will still vote UKIP. I know this because I'm one of them. Some will vote UKIP because they are also aware that despite what Cameron says or promises, they know that the Conservatives will NOT give an in/out referendum on Europe.

This will be the first time since 1978 I have ever voted for a party other than Conservative, but it wont be the last.

 

I agree. You will get the same right to vote as was promised in their manifesto at the last general election. Dave will be given small concessions by Europe and then say to the British people ..... We have what we wanted and do no longer need to leave the European union.

[Penelope]

Whilst borrowing hand over fist to do so.

 

Totally disagree. The world was on it's knees so you can only do so much.
Labour spent loads on hospitals, army, schools and we see this first hand as we supply them.

Now it's 2 weeks for a doctors appointment , army cut, hospitals a crowded with no staff.



What you have to remember is who ever you vote for the government will always get in

[overandunder2012]

its going to be an interesting one i cant see the torys staying in power it was clear from the debates last night they will be hard pushed to get anyone to do a deal with them as nobody except the lib dems are interested but unlikely to have many seats themselves and the torys dont want any part of ukip who i suspect may not do as well as many hope as i think there will be quite a few last min crosses in the tory box

.

of course im just guessing like everyone else and could be well wrong. time will tell.

 

if its any conciliation to the kippers, historically im not good at predicting election results

Edited April 17, 2015 by overandunder2012

[kdubya]

Whilst borrowing hand over fist to do so.

 

And the cons have borrowed less?

 

KW