Brexit - merged threads

[JRDS]

2 hours ago, JohnfromUK said:

I agree, but the sad thing is that the Remainers in Parliament with the connivance of Corbyn - will say YES to all of the four above - and still 'claim' we are leaving.  The May 'deal' ditches CU, SM - and most of FoM ...... and ECJ but that I think only fully after 2020.

If Parliament signs Mays entrapment deal we are stuck forever, that is why they won't ditch the backstop they will never use it is simply a plan to ensnare us.  Have you read the 40 salient points of her deal in the Spectator they are horrendous and very obviously written by he EU.   

[JohnfromUK]

1 minute ago, JRDS said:

If Parliament signs Mays entrapment deal we are stuck forever, that is why they won't ditch the backstop they will never use it is simply a plan to ensnare us.  Have you read the 40 salient points of her deal in the Spectator they are horrendous and very obviously written by he EU.   

I have always been of the opinion that we should ditch the backstop.  However realistically now, owing to the treachery of Parliament 'no deal' has effectively been ruled out, so we have;

• May's deal - which is only a 'transition' until December 2020.
• Various 'softer deals' permanently retaining CU, SM and FoM, no trade deals elsewhere - keeping paying with no say much as Norway - as supported by Corbyn & Co.
• New referendum (Peoples Vote - so called)
• Revoke article 50 and effectively forget about Brexit

Of these, May's deal is (to me and flawed as it is) the best of a bad lot.

• Softer deals are even less 'Brexit' than May's deal and prevent us doing trade deals elsewhere - Basically not a Brexit
• I do not believe it is right to have a new referendum BUT if we did, it must not include 'Remain' as an option - because that decision has already been made.  It must simply be on how we leave.
• Revoking article 50 is revoking democracy - and should not be allowed to happen

I am committed to leave ........ BUT I am also realistic in that how we leave with a biased Speaker and Parliament is difficult and a No Deal will not be allowed (by Parliament) to pass, so it has to be a deal - and May's is the only one available.

[Scully]

17 minutes ago, JRDS said:

If Parliament signs Mays entrapment deal we are stuck forever, that is why they won't ditch the backstop they will never use it is simply a plan to ensnare us.  Have you read the 40 salient points of her deal in the Spectator they are horrendous and very obviously written by he EU.   

So if we do leave, ( which I don't believe we will ) it will be in name only; which means there leave campaign will continue its fight to leave in entirety, and the remain campaign will continue its fight to rejoin , if anything has changed by leaving in name only. Interesting times ahead. 🙂

I really really can't wait for the next GE! 

Edited March 26, 2019 by Scully

[JohnfromUK]

1 minute ago, Scully said:

So if we do leave, ( which I don't believe we will ) it will be in name only

May's deal ends in December 2020 (assuming we can avoid the backstop cutting in)

2 minutes ago, Scully said:

which I don't believe we will

I'm inclined to agree, but I think May's deal (and the transition period it sets up) is now the only 'forward' step.

[JRDS]

1. May says her deal means the UK leaves the EU next March. The Withdrawal Agreement makes a mockery of this. “All references to Member States and competent authorities of Member States…shall be read as including the United Kingdom.” (Art 6).
2. Not quite what most people understand by Brexit. It goes on to spell out that the UK will be in the EU but without any MEPs, a commissioner or ECJ judges. We are effectively a Member State, but we are excused – or, more accurately, excluded – from attending summits. (Article 7)
3. The European Court of Justice is decreed to be our highest court, governing the entire Agreement – Art. 4. stipulates that both citizens and resident companies can use it. Art 4.2 orders our courts to recognise this. “If the European Commission considers that the United Kingdom has failed to fulfil an obligation under the Treaties or under Part Four of this Agreement before the end of the transition period, the European Commission may, within 4 years after the end of the transition period, bring the matter before the Court of Justice of the European Union”. (Art. 87)
4. The jurisdiction of the ECJ will last until eight years after the end of the transition period. (Article 158).
5. The UK will still be bound by any future changes to EU law in which it will have no say, not to mention having to comply with current law. (Article 6(2))
6. Any disputes under the Agreement will be decided by EU law only – one of the most dangerous provisions. (Article 168).
7. This cuts the UK off from International Law, something we’d never do with any foreign body. Arbitration will be governed by the existing procedural rules of the EU law – this is not arbitration as we would commonly understand it (i.e. between two independent parties). (Article 174)
8. “UNDERLINING that this Agreement is founded on an overall balance of benefits, rights and obligations for the Union and the United Kingdom” No, it should be based upon the binding legal obligations upon the EU contained within Article 50. It is wrong to suggest otherwise.
9. The tampon tax clause: We obey EU laws on VAT, with no chance of losing the tampon tax even if we agree a better deal in December 2020 because we hereby agree to obey other EU VAT rules for **five years** after the transition period. Current EU rules prohibit 0-rated VAT on products (like tampons) that did not have such exemptions before the country joined the EU.
10. Several problems with the EU’s definitions: “Union law” is too widely defined and “United Kingdom national” is defined by the Lisbon Treaty: we should given away our right to define our citizens. The “goods” and the term “services” we are promised the deal are not defined – or, rather, will be defined however the EU wishes them to be. Thus far, this a non-defined term so far. This agreement fails to define it.
11. The Mandelson Pension Clause: The UK must promise never to tax former EU officials based here – such as Peter Mandelson or Neil Kinnock – on their E.U. pensions, or tax any current Brussels bureaucrats on their salaries. The EU and its employees are to be immune to our tax laws. (Article 104)
12. Furthermore, the UK agrees not to prosecute EU employees who are, or who might be deemed in future, criminals (Art.101)
13. The GDPR clause. The General Data Protection Regulation – the EU’s stupidest law ever? – is to be bound into UK law (Articles 71 to 73). There had been an expectation in some quarters that the UK could get out of it.
14. The UK establishes a ‘Joint Committee’ with EU representatives to guarantee ‘the implementation and application of this Agreement’. This does not sound like a withdrawal agreement – if it was, why would it need to be subject to continued monitoring? (Article 164).
15. This Joint Committee will have subcommittees with jurisdiction over: (a) citizens’ rights; (b) “other separation provisions”; (c) Ireland/Northern Ireland; (d) Sovereign Base Areas in Cyprus; (e) Gibraltar; and (f) financial provisions. (Article 165)
16. The Lifetime clause: the agreement will last as long as the country’s youngest baby lives. “the persons covered by this Part shall enjoy the rights provided for in the relevant Titles of this Part for their lifetime”. (Article 39).
17. The UK is shut out of all EU networks and databases for security – yet no such provision exists to shut the EU out of ours. (Article 😎
18. The UK will tied to EU foreign policy, “bound by the obligations stemming from the international agreements concluded by the Union” but unable to influence such decisions. (Article 124)
19. All EU citizens must be given permanent right of residence after five years – but what counts as residence? This will be decided by the EU, rather than UK rules. (Articles 15-16)
20. Britain is granted the power to send a civil servant to Brussels to watch them pass stupid laws which will hurt our economy. (Article 34)
21. The UK agrees to spend taxpayers’ money telling everyone how wonderful the agreement is. (Article 37)
22. Art 40 defines Goods. It seems to includes Services and Agriculture. We may come to discover that actually ‘goods’ means everything.
23. Articles 40-49 practically mandate the UK’s ongoing membership of the Customs Union in all but name.
24. The UK will be charged to receive the data/information we need in order to comply with EU law. (Article 50). The EU will continue to set rules for UK intellectual property law (Article 54 to 61). The UK will effectively be bound by a non-disclosure agreement swearing us to secrecy regarding any EU developments we have paid to be part. This is not mutual. The EU is not bound by such measures. (Article 74)
25. The UK is bound by EU rules on procurement rules – which effectively forbids us from seeking better deals elsewhere. (Articles 75 to 78)
26. We give up all rights to any data the EU made with our money (Art. 103)
27. The EU decide capital projects (too broadly defined) the UK is liable for. (Art. 144)
28. The UK is bound by EU state aid laws until future agreement – even in the event of an agreement, this must wait four years to be valid. (Article 93)
29. Similar advantages and immunities are extended to all former MEPs and to former EU official more generally. (Articles 106-116)
30. The UK is forbidden from revealing anything the EU told us or tells us about the finer points of deal and its operation. (Article 105).
31. Any powers the UK parliament might have had to mitigate EU law are officially removed. (Article 128)
32. The UK shall be liable for any “outstanding commitments” after 2022 (Article 142(2) expressly mentions pensions, which gives us an idea as to who probably negotiated this). The amount owed will be calculated by the EU. (Articles 140-142)
33. The UK will be liable for future EU lending. As anyone familiar with the EU’s financials knows, this is not good. (Article143)
34. The UK will remain liable for capital projects approved by the European Investment Bank. (Article 150).
35. The UK will remain a ‘party’ (i.e. cough up money) for the European Development Fund. (Articles 152-154)
36. And the EU continues to calculate how much money the UK should pay it. So thank goodness Brussels does not have any accountancy issues.
37. The UK will remain bound (i.e coughing up money) to the European Union Emergency Trust Fund – which deals with irregular migration (i.e. refugees) and displaced persons heading to Europe. (Article 155)
38. The agreement will be policed by ‘the Authority’ – a new UK-based body with ‘powers equivalent to those of the European Commission’. (Article 159)
39. The EU admits, in Art. 184, that it is in breach of  Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty which oblige it to “conclude an agreement” of the terms of UK leaving the EU. We must now, it seems, “negotiate expeditiously the agreements governing their future relationship.” And if the EU does not? We settle down to this Agreement.
40. And, of course, the UK will agree to pay £40bn to receive all of these ‘privileges’. (Article 138)

[Dekers]

8 minutes ago, JRDS said:

1. May says her deal means the UK leaves the EU next March. The Withdrawal Agreement makes a mockery of this. “All references to Member States and competent authorities of Member States…shall be read as including the United Kingdom.” (Art 6).
2. Not quite what most people understand by Brexit. It goes on to spell out that the UK will be in the EU but without any MEPs, a commissioner or ECJ judges. We are effectively a Member State, but we are excused – or, more accurately, excluded – from attending summits. (Article 7)
3. The European Court of Justice is decreed to be our highest court, governing the entire Agreement – Art. 4. stipulates that both citizens and resident companies can use it. Art 4.2 orders our courts to recognise this. “If the European Commission considers that the United Kingdom has failed to fulfil an obligation under the Treaties or under Part Four of this Agreement before the end of the transition period, the European Commission may, within 4 years after the end of the transition period, bring the matter before the Court of Justice of the European Union”. (Art. 87)
4. The jurisdiction of the ECJ will last until eight years after the end of the transition period. (Article 158).
5. The UK will still be bound by any future changes to EU law in which it will have no say, not to mention having to comply with current law. (Article 6(2))
6. Any disputes under the Agreement will be decided by EU law only – one of the most dangerous provisions. (Article 168).
7. This cuts the UK off from International Law, something we’d never do with any foreign body. Arbitration will be governed by the existing procedural rules of the EU law – this is not arbitration as we would commonly understand it (i.e. between two independent parties). (Article 174)
8. “UNDERLINING that this Agreement is founded on an overall balance of benefits, rights and obligations for the Union and the United Kingdom” No, it should be based upon the binding legal obligations upon the EU contained within Article 50. It is wrong to suggest otherwise.
9. The tampon tax clause: We obey EU laws on VAT, with no chance of losing the tampon tax even if we agree a better deal in December 2020 because we hereby agree to obey other EU VAT rules for **five years** after the transition period. Current EU rules prohibit 0-rated VAT on products (like tampons) that did not have such exemptions before the country joined the EU.
10. Several problems with the EU’s definitions: “Union law” is too widely defined and “United Kingdom national” is defined by the Lisbon Treaty: we should given away our right to define our citizens. The “goods” and the term “services” we are promised the deal are not defined – or, rather, will be defined however the EU wishes them to be. Thus far, this a non-defined term so far. This agreement fails to define it.
11. The Mandelson Pension Clause: The UK must promise never to tax former EU officials based here – such as Peter Mandelson or Neil Kinnock – on their E.U. pensions, or tax any current Brussels bureaucrats on their salaries. The EU and its employees are to be immune to our tax laws. (Article 104)
12. Furthermore, the UK agrees not to prosecute EU employees who are, or who might be deemed in future, criminals (Art.101)
13. The GDPR clause. The General Data Protection Regulation – the EU’s stupidest law ever? – is to be bound into UK law (Articles 71 to 73). There had been an expectation in some quarters that the UK could get out of it.
14. The UK establishes a ‘Joint Committee’ with EU representatives to guarantee ‘the implementation and application of this Agreement’. This does not sound like a withdrawal agreement – if it was, why would it need to be subject to continued monitoring? (Article 164).
15. This Joint Committee will have subcommittees with jurisdiction over: (a) citizens’ rights; (b) “other separation provisions”; (c) Ireland/Northern Ireland; (d) Sovereign Base Areas in Cyprus; (e) Gibraltar; and (f) financial provisions. (Article 165)
16. The Lifetime clause: the agreement will last as long as the country’s youngest baby lives. “the persons covered by this Part shall enjoy the rights provided for in the relevant Titles of this Part for their lifetime”. (Article 39).
17. The UK is shut out of all EU networks and databases for security – yet no such provision exists to shut the EU out of ours. (Article 😎
18. The UK will tied to EU foreign policy, “bound by the obligations stemming from the international agreements concluded by the Union” but unable to influence such decisions. (Article 124)
19. All EU citizens must be given permanent right of residence after five years – but what counts as residence? This will be decided by the EU, rather than UK rules. (Articles 15-16)
20. Britain is granted the power to send a civil servant to Brussels to watch them pass stupid laws which will hurt our economy. (Article 34)
21. The UK agrees to spend taxpayers’ money telling everyone how wonderful the agreement is. (Article 37)
22. Art 40 defines Goods. It seems to includes Services and Agriculture. We may come to discover that actually ‘goods’ means everything.
23. Articles 40-49 practically mandate the UK’s ongoing membership of the Customs Union in all but name.
24. The UK will be charged to receive the data/information we need in order to comply with EU law. (Article 50). The EU will continue to set rules for UK intellectual property law (Article 54 to 61). The UK will effectively be bound by a non-disclosure agreement swearing us to secrecy regarding any EU developments we have paid to be part. This is not mutual. The EU is not bound by such measures. (Article 74)
25. The UK is bound by EU rules on procurement rules – which effectively forbids us from seeking better deals elsewhere. (Articles 75 to 78)
26. We give up all rights to any data the EU made with our money (Art. 103)
27. The EU decide capital projects (too broadly defined) the UK is liable for. (Art. 144)
28. The UK is bound by EU state aid laws until future agreement – even in the event of an agreement, this must wait four years to be valid. (Article 93)
29. Similar advantages and immunities are extended to all former MEPs and to former EU official more generally. (Articles 106-116)
30. The UK is forbidden from revealing anything the EU told us or tells us about the finer points of deal and its operation. (Article 105).
31. Any powers the UK parliament might have had to mitigate EU law are officially removed. (Article 128)
32. The UK shall be liable for any “outstanding commitments” after 2022 (Article 142(2) expressly mentions pensions, which gives us an idea as to who probably negotiated this). The amount owed will be calculated by the EU. (Articles 140-142)
33. The UK will be liable for future EU lending. As anyone familiar with the EU’s financials knows, this is not good. (Article143)
34. The UK will remain liable for capital projects approved by the European Investment Bank. (Article 150).
35. The UK will remain a ‘party’ (i.e. cough up money) for the European Development Fund. (Articles 152-154)
36. And the EU continues to calculate how much money the UK should pay it. So thank goodness Brussels does not have any accountancy issues.
37. The UK will remain bound (i.e coughing up money) to the European Union Emergency Trust Fund – which deals with irregular migration (i.e. refugees) and displaced persons heading to Europe. (Article 155)
38. The agreement will be policed by ‘the Authority’ – a new UK-based body with ‘powers equivalent to those of the European Commission’. (Article 159)
39. The EU admits, in Art. 184, that it is in breach of  Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty which oblige it to “conclude an agreement” of the terms of UK leaving the EU. We must now, it seems, “negotiate expeditiously the agreements governing their future relationship.” And if the EU does not? We settle down to this Agreement.
40. And, of course, the UK will agree to pay £40bn to receive all of these ‘privileges’. (Article 138)

Where did you get all that?

[JohnfromUK]

5 minutes ago, JRDS said:

May says her deal means the U .............

BUT - How are you going to get "No Deal" through Parliament?

The vast majority don't like May's deal - due to the points above (and other things for other people) .......... which is rather obvious from it being rejected twice by big margins.

I personally would be quite happy to take No Deal - but Parliament will block it (the Speaker will ensure that) - so it isn't going to happen.

It really isn't a great help complaining about May's deal unless there is a credible (in that in can pass into legislation) alternative plan (such as no deal).

[JRDS]

I read it the Spectator as a free article but pay to view now so here :

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-17/40-hidden-horrors-theresa-mays-brexit-deal

2 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

BUT - How are you going to get "No Deal" through Parliament?

The vast majority don't like May's deal - due to the points above (and other things for other people) .......... which is rather obvious from it being rejected twice by big margins.

I personally would be quite happy to take No Deal - but Parliament will block it (the Speaker will ensure that) - so it isn't going to happen.

It really isn't a great help complaining about May's deal unless there is a credible (in that in can pass into legislation) alternative plan (such as no deal).

Defer Brexit for a GE then clear out the traitors, there would be a rout.  The legal default is No Deal but it is obvious the EU will keep letting the date slip.  One thing to note a legal challenge might be coming on May agreeing an extension without a vote as she was forced to take on A50? 

[tandytommo]

39 minutes ago, Scully said:

So if we do leave, ( which I don't believe we will ) it will be in name only; which means there leave campaign will continue its fight to leave in entirety, and the remain campaign will continue its fight to rejoin , if anything has changed by leaving in name only. Interesting times ahead. 🙂

I really really can't wait for the next GE! 

Who are you going to vote for ?

 

[JRDS]

If the ERG had any bottle they would vote with Labour in a no confidence vote against the Government shutting Parliament down ensuring we leave on the default position.  Corbyn would take a No Deal Brexit for a GE.

[tandytommo]

24 minutes ago, JRDS said:

I read it the Spectator as a free article but pay to view now so here :

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-17/40-hidden-horrors-theresa-mays-brexit-deal

Defer Brexit for a GE then clear out the traitors, there would be a rout.  The legal default is No Deal but it is obvious the EU will keep letting the date slip.  One thing to note a legal challenge might be coming on May agreeing an extension without a vote as she was forced to take on A50? 

What makes you think you are going to be able to "clear out the traitors" ?

 

[JRDS]

Because the vast majority of constituencies outside of Londonistan and Scotland voted to Leave and everyone hates a Traitor especially one paid a huge salary with even bigger expenses by Taxpayers to represent them on a vote deferred to them with a promise to uphold both then and in both main parties Manifestos.    

Edited March 26, 2019 by JRDS

[Scully]

3 minutes ago, tandytommo said:

Who are you going to vote for ?

 

I’d prefer not to say at the moment,  and it is prone to change as the time gets nearer anyhow, so we’ll see. 

I think the Tories will consider themselves safe. They will know that many will want to punish them for this, but they ( the tories) will count on people’s fears that doing so will result in a default Labour victory. 

I’m hoping both Labour and cons ( how apt that abbreviation is ) are plunged into the dark ages, but that would be asking too much. 

I will vote, but it won’t be for either of them, but if labour do get in I’ll think of it as poetic justice...we get what we deserve, and ever has it been so. 

[ditchman]

the clue is in the avatar...

[tandytommo]

2 minutes ago, JRDS said:

Because the vast majority of constituencies voted to Leave and everyone hates a Traitor especially paid a huge salary with even bigger expenses by Taxpayers to represent them. 

We'll see, doubt the average Joe on the street is  as passionate  about it as you are and can't see any party winning a decisive majority.  

[TIGHTCHOKE]

Tactical voting might well come in to play!

[Scully]

7 minutes ago, ditchman said:

the clue is in the avatar...

😃 Perhaps. 

[JohnfromUK]

Just now, tandytommo said:

can't see any party winning a decisive majority.

I suspect you are spot on there.

The problem there is that there would still be no majority for any 'leave'. 

• SNP, LibDem, Green and new IG (Umuna and Soubry) party are all firmly Remain
• Labour are split between very soft Brexit (Starmers 6 tests), Remain and a few Leave
• Conservative are split between Hard Leave and Soft Leave with some Remain (who will probably loose their seats)
• DUP are Leave
• UKIP have never won a seat yet - and are unlikely to now there is to be a Brexit party
• New Brexit party may get a good vote, but unlikely to win seats

So - we have an election - and end up pretty much where we are now!  But more uncertainty and economic damage in the meanwhile.

[Newbie to this]

1 hour ago, Snoozer said:

I'm sure there would be a little bit left for the Farmers from that 9 Billion and that was 2017

 

No no no, this must be fake news. We have a free trade deal with the EU! Or so we are constantly told by remainers.

[das]

9 hours ago, Raja Clavata said:

So now the Remain voters are stupid?

We've waited 3 years for the victors to enact their win, we are still waiting, none the wiser and frankly sick of it.

The remain voters are not stupid, they are just sodding whingers for the vote that did not go their way as they all expected. Shock, horror😵

[Newbie to this]

6 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

• UKIP have never won a seat yet - and are unlikely to now there is to be a Brexit party
• New Brexit party may get a good vote, but unlikely to win seats

This will be the problem, this will split the votes.

Some will vote for Farage and the new party

Some will not risk it with a new party, and stick with the established UKIP.

The 2 parties need to sort sort out their differences, like the support for Tommy Robinson in UKIP, and get one party with a common goal.

Edited March 26, 2019 by Newbie to this

[JohnfromUK]

1 minute ago, Newbie to this said:

This will be the problem, this will split the votes.

Some will vote for Farage and the new party

Some will not risk it with a new party, and stick with the established UKIP.

The 2 parties need to sort sort out their differences, like the support for Tommy Robinson in UKIP, and get one party with a common goal.

I am in a Leave constituency and have no problem because I have a sitting (Tory) MP who has supported Brexit (and has a huge majority anyway) and has voted in line with the constituencies wishes. 

IF we are dragged into EU elections, I have previously voted UKIP there, but will not vote UKIP now as they are a shambles and have embraced people I regard as undesirables.  If we have a Brexit candidate I will consider him/her.

[tandytommo]

10 minutes ago, Newbie to this said:

No no no, this must be fake news. We have a free trade deal with the EU! Or so we are constantly told by remainers.

 

7 minutes ago, das said:

The remain voters are not stupid, they are just sodding whingers for the vote that did not go their way as they all expected. Shock, horror😵

I can understand you frustration, they are also think they are a bit smarter and have a bit more influence than you do. All you can do is use the next chance you get to vote wisely, Who would you vote for ?

6 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

I am in a Leave constituency and have no problem because I have a sitting (Tory) MP who has supported Brexit (and has a huge majority anyway) and has voted in line with the constituencies wishes. 

IF we are dragged into EU elections, I have previously voted UKIP there, but will not vote UKIP now as they are a shambles and have embraced people I regard as undesirables.  If we have a Brexit candidate I will consider him/her.

Sounds like a reasonable  plan given your circumstances.

 

[Jaymo]

If the TM deal is so poor, then why are all media outlets now jumping to the conclusion that JRM and Boris are now willing to back it?

Are they that desperate to say “ I achieved Brexit” , but at a cost against their principles, or is there more to it- surely the same deal they have said is “the worst deal ever” hasn’t changed, so why have they changed? 

38 minutes ago, JRDS said:

Because the vast majority of constituencies outside of Londonistan and Scotland voted to Leave and everyone hates a Traitor especially one paid a huge salary with even bigger expenses by Taxpayers to represent them on a vote deferred to them with a promise to uphold both then and in both main parties Manifestos.    

Labour seem to be backing the ‘Remain’ path, Tories? Who knows - but I can’t see the same thoughts of ‘treachery’ going through most voters minds and they will most likely vote as they always have done, sure there will be some ‘swings’, but will eat my ‘second most favourite hat’ if there was.

 

[JRDS]

I think you might be surprised, a lot of Remain Tory MP's will be deselected for a start off as should Labours Remainers be.  They stood on a lie to the people voting for them.